Harris V Trump - The US Election - The Results

[Danny]

Nov 5, 2024 23:08:47 GMT Mark said:

Boris Johnson is a complete arsehole.

Oh I see, its because he was on tv as a commentator, and a clip said he was thrown out for talking about his book.

[patrickbrian]

Woken up. wish I hadn't,

[steve]

A second Donald Trump presidency could be bad news for the UK economy, experts fear.

UK growth would be halved in the event Donald Trump wins the US presidential race and imposes the swingeing new tariffs he has threatened, a leading thinktank has warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the protectionist measures planned by the Republican challenger for the White House would result in weaker activity, rising inflation and higher interest rates from the Bank of England.

Ahmet Kaya, a NIESR economist, said that, were Trump to go ahead with a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on goods from all other countries, the resulting trade war would lower UK growth by 0.7 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points in the first two years.

Kaya said:

“The UK is a small, open economy and would be one of the countries most affected.”

NIESR has estimated that over two years the UK inflation rate would be 3-4 points higher while interest rates would be 2-3 points higher.


What price" make Brexit work" now. .It's more essential than ever to reverse the self inflicted isolation .

[Danny]

Nigel Farage sitting with the friends and family at the Trump imminent victory speech. If there is one british politician with influence with the forthcoming US president, its him. Absurd to have attacked him for desering his constituents in Clacton when he was out getting the support of the US president.

[pjw1961]

Nov 6, 2024 6:27:52 GMT colin said:

Nov 6, 2024 6:15:52 GMT alec said:

All over. Early optimism the same as previous years. Big implications, none of them good. Depressing, more so because a criminal has persuaded a country to vote for him, and the message that gives to odious individuals.

Maybe if she had stopped calling him Hitler and found some policy criticism of him-or even presented a reason to vote Dem-she might not have lost.

She bigged up on abortion. He built a broad based demographic coalition.

 

I think blaming Harris is misplaced, she fought about as good a campaign as was possible in the circumstances. The economic fundamentals were against her. People felt worse off under Biden than they had under Trump and that was what did it - the polling has been saying that all the way through. No presidential candidate of an incumbent party has ever won when that many Americans were saying the country was on the wrong track (equally Trump is the winner with the lowest ever personal ratings). 

On the other hand Biden himself does carry some responsibility, insisting on running for a second term when it was apparent he wasn't up to it. Potentially, a Democratic primary contest might have produced either a different candidate or a Harris who had been tested in the front of the public.

[neilj]

Turkish proverb

“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace becomes a circus”

[jib]

A pretty comprehensive win to Trump and MAGA.

Far more convincing than 2016 and a vote for change for sure.

Starmer was wise to meet with him a few weeks ago. Accept the result and deal with it I'm afraid.

[neilj]

A 34 time convicted felon, civilly liable sexual abuser, twice impeached, six time bankrupt man is the next US president in an environment where he has promised revenge against his enemies and been told by then Supreme Court that he cannot be punished for breaking the law

[alec]

Worth bearing in mind that only one VP has ever won straight after serving in 60 years, and that was Bush after Reagan, with Reagan on 60% approval when he left office.

I think we were blinded by the personal animosity most of us feel towards Trump, and could grasp the very tough historical challenge Harris faced, plus the fact that in very simple terms, many US voters just don't like Trump and his character/personality, but were prepared to give him a go based on what he said he would. Again, we've seen that here with the way Farage is routinely abused and dismissed by the left and mainstream conservatives, but he consistently achieves the support of a hefty constituency because he is addressing the issues that hurt them.

We need to learn that character doesn't always get punished at the polls, and focus on how to make people's lives better. There's also a lesson here about immigration. That so many people of non-white descent voted for Trump tells it's own story. If the left thinks it can win power by constantly saying immigration is a good thing and we should be grateful for it and anyone that disagrees is a racist, then prepare for a long time in opposition. Sorry, but that's the way it is. I don't necessarily like it, but if winning elections is your thing, emoting about Gaza and dismissing anxious talk of immigration as racist are not going to do the job.

[alec]

pjw1961 - agreed. The positive result on many of the abortion measures, despite a major red wave, shows that the US has not become a Gilead style far right fundamentalist electorate. They want to protect abortion rights but vote for a president who they think can deal with the economic issues.

neilj - yes, but your post betrays what we see here I think. Rather than obsess about Trump's personal failings, and there are lots of them, US voters went with their wallets. Trump led on the economy. The left cannot rely on attacking personality and self righteous condemnation of moral failings. There's a lesson here.

[neilj]

alec


It's easy in opposition when you know you're not going to be the Government to make fantasy promises that you'll never have to try to implement
Yes Reform will pick up votes by doing this, but if they ever got into Government their policies would soon be found to be unworkable
That's the problem for mainstream parties, they have to live in the real world

We will have the real world example of Trump now. Let's see how his promises to put 20% plus tariffs on all imports, send in the Army to remove millions of undocumented immigrants over a few weeks and end the war in Ukraine overnight works out

[Danny]

Nov 6, 2024 7:18:45 GMT pjw1961 said:

I think blaming Harris is misplaced, she fought about as good a campaign as was possible in the circumstances. The economic fundamentals were against her. People felt worse off under Biden than they had under Trump and that was what did it - the polling has been saying that all the way through. No presidential candidate of an incumbent party has ever won when that many Americans were saying the country was on the wrong track (equally Trump is the winner with the lowest ever personal ratings). 

On the other hand Biden himself does carry some responsibility, insisting on running for a second term when it was apparent he wasn't up to it. Potentially, a Democratic primary contest might have produced either a different candidate or a Harris who had been tested in the front of the public.

I dont think Harris would have been the candidate, there were other challengers in the nominal primary Biden won. Someone else might have been able to distance themselves a bit better from perceived poor incumbent performance. However, one of the pundits argued the economy isnt actually doing too bad. He highlighted that inflation was the big issue, which was caused by covid lockdown and the knock on consequences which no politician mentioned at the time. Arguably Trump was responsible for that, but of course Biden took over before the bad economic consequences began.

The problem for Harris isnt that people felt worse, they actually were worse off. In particular the poor who might traditionally have looked to the dems, felt this was the case.

Reflecting this back to the Uk, I can see the next election being a hung parliament, probably lab biggest group but three other major players, libs, con, reform. Possibly revitalised SNP if they can get their stuff together again. And after that I can see an excluded reform growing. Its more difficult in the Uk as an outsider, but I can see Farage's ambition being to become PM.

[steve]

I am forced to conclude that in relation to the majority of the U.S. electorate the only thing we have in common is a shared language.

[Danny]

Nov 6, 2024 7:29:16 GMT alec said:

That so many people of non-white descent voted for Trump tells it's own story.

Uk polling says imigrants are the most anti-immigration group. Which sounds perverse but I think makes sense: If you are in, you dont want more immigrants stirring up trouble against those already here. If you left you homeland because you didnt like it, you dont want all those people coming here and turning the UK into a copy of what you deliberately left behind.

If the left thinks it can win power by constantly saying immigration is a good thing and we should be grateful for it and anyone that disagrees is a racist, then prepare for a long time in opposition. Sorry, but that's the way it is. I don't necessarily like it, but if winning elections is your thing, emoting about Gaza and dismissing anxious talk of immigration as racist are not going to do the job.

Lab and con both support large scale immigration. The NHS relies upon immigrant labour. As does the care sector generally. They dont have any alternative propsal to create growth except bring in more people. The mainstream continues to refuse to accept an end to immigration. It requires a complete change in outlook to a low labour economy. It very probably requires a tough look at what we really want form the NHS, how much we are wiling to spend.

On the subject of the NHS, an anecdote: someone I know had some mysterious symptoms and was taken off to hospital. Where the doctors were fairly certain there was nothing seriously wrong, but then ensued all the tests possible to make sure. Which added to the impression I have of the NHS, that it makes its budget stretch by having waiting lists, but once you get inside a hospital its pretty rolls royce treatment. In cost effectiveness terms its likely this isnt optimising purchased health benefits, its too stop-go, all or nothing.

[colin]

Nov 6, 2024 7:18:45 GMT pjw1961 said:

Nov 6, 2024 6:27:52 GMT colin said:

Maybe if she had stopped calling him Hitler and found some policy criticism of him-or even presented a reason to vote Dem-she might not have lost.

She bigged up on abortion. He built a broad based demographic coalition.

 

I think blaming Harris is misplaced, she fought about as good a campaign as was possible in the circumstances. 

I disagree.

The stuff i saw on tv news was vacuous sound bytes and endless moralising.

Maybe the policy stuff wasnt covered.

How can you not blame her for defeating a man which your fellow posters on UKPR2 have described as such an appalling person.

I certainly blame the Conservative Party for this Labour Government. And I blame Harris for what is coming.

[jib]

Danny

In regards to your first point, I said at the time that the garbage insult was carefully choreographed.

Unfortunate that Biden took the bait and gave the knee jerk confirmation and scored the own goal.

[somerjohn]

Colin: "You tell me. How the hell did she lose to this man ?"


It's easier to sell simple lies than complex truths to a disgruntled, impressionable electorate in search of easy answers.

It worked for brexit; now it's worked for Trump.

In both cases, the electorate faces a long, slow unravelling of its ill-judged choice.

But the scales will probably never fall from the eyes of the true believers, whether in MAGA or brexit. It's hard to admit you were conned, so it will always be someone else's fault: the stab in the back from "them".

[Danny]

Nov 6, 2024 7:53:42 GMT steve said:

I am forced to conclude that in relation to the majority of the U.S. electorate the only thing we have in common is a shared language.

No. What is happening in the US is exactly the same as happening in the UK, for the same reasons. Trump was able to take over the republican party because of their system of open primary elections to choose candidates. In the Uk Farage has a much more difficult task, had to create a new party from scratch, but has made it as far as being elected to parliamnt with a handful of MPs.

If the UK main parties do not address what is happening, Farage will continue to grow and its credible he may become PM. The problem for lab and con seems to be that to prevent this, they need to solve the issues Farage and Trump have highlighted. So end immigration, which however lab and con believe is the only way to get growth and therefore pay for what voters are demanding. They prefer to take a slow death with a rising Farage, than a quick death as they expect should they halt immigration. Similarly, the US rust belt was critical, which is working class voters who have been losing out since Reagan/Thatcher. Labour just made a few tax tweaks to shift money from rich to poor, nothing like enough to address this problem which is killing them and losing their traditional 'labour' vote to reform. And the establishemnt has descended upon them for attacking pensioners and farmers!

To solve the Uks problems we need massively more housebuilding, which isnt simply about homes but has become a mechanism to extract money from the poor and pass it to the rich. in 1910 inheritance tax provided 30% of government tax revenue. And this was tax on the rich, who largely since then have reorgansied the inheritance tax system so they do not pay anything. Again houses loom large, since the extreme cost of a home has distorted inheritance taxation. The excuse of protecting the average citizen's home from inheritance tax has been used to protect the billionaire from paying any significant tax.

[Danny]

Nov 6, 2024 8:19:37 GMT somerjohn said:

It's easier to sell simple lies than complex truths to a disgruntled, impressionable electorate in search of easy answers. It worked for brexit; now it's worked for Trump. In both cases, the electorate faces a long, slow unravelling of its ill-judged choice.

But this isnt about complex truths. Its simple truths, growing wealth disparity is unaceptable to those losing out. Constant immigration is unacceptable in just about every country on earth. While Trump may in the end offer no solutions, he only has the opportunity because the main parties do not want to accept what voters are telling them has become unaceptable.

[pete]

Well, we get to watch Trump fight his dementia over the next 4 years.
My guess is he'll disappear more as the years go on and Vance will take centre stage.

[mark61]

The question that usually determines the outcome of an election seems to be 'are you happy with your life right now?'  Answer Yes, Incumbents Win, answer no it's the other guys turn.  I am not particularly Surprised Trump won but am surprised he won the Popular vote which he did not manage against Clinton.

The Democrats have shot themselves in the foot, they had 4 years of power and should have consigned Trump to the History Books.   I think Biden was an ineffectual President who unwisely put himself forward for a second term rather than pass the baton on to the next generation, then tried to hang on when it was obvious he wasn't up to it leaving pretty much a fait accompli that the uninspiring Harris would face off against Trump in a re-run of the 2016 contest.  Thanks to Biden this Campaign had it's own Basket of deplorables moment.

Bad news for the Planet, the World (and in particular our) Economy if Trump brings in tariffs. Bad news for Ukraine, good news for Putin and Xi.   Not a great time to be outside the EU, there are 3 big Power blocks in the World, I would not relish closer ties with the other 2.

[pjw1961]

Nov 6, 2024 8:07:03 GMT colin said:

Nov 6, 2024 7:18:45 GMT pjw1961 said:

I think blaming Harris is misplaced, she fought about as good a campaign as was possible in the circumstances. 

I disagree.

The stuff i saw on tv news was vacuous sound bytes and endless moralising.

Maybe the policy stuff wasnt covered.

How can you not blame her for defeating a man which your fellow posters on UKPR2 have described as such an appalling person.

I certainly blame the Conservative Party for this Labour Government. And I blame Harris for what is coming.

By definition if you rely on TV news all you will see is sound bites - that's all they show of any and all politicians both US and UK. They are not going to broadcast even a 20 minute speech in its entirety let alone a 1 or 2 hour one. So that is a strange criticism. 

I've said many times (and lululemon said the same the other day) the normal result of this presidential cycle was a Republican victory based on the polling on the economy. The only reason is was at all competitive was Trump's divisive personality. 

[colin]

Nov 6, 2024 9:02:51 GMT pjw1961 said:

Nov 6, 2024 8:07:03 GMT colin said:

.

 

I've said many times (and lululemon said the same the other day) the normal result of this presidential cycle was a Republican victory based on the polling on the economy. 

Convenient for the Democratic Party !

One wonders why they bothered.

[somerjohn]

I see JiB and Colin have endorsed Danny's contention that "Its simple truths, growing wealth disparity is unaceptable to those losing out. Constant immigration is unacceptable in just about every country on earth."

The simple lies I was talking about weren't about the nature of the problems, as Danny suggests, but about the glib, easy answers on offer.

The electorate's concerns are real and straightforward. It's the proferred solutions that are the simple lies, when the issues are far more complex than that.

So, yes, growing wealth disparity is unacceptable. The Trump/Musk solution is to cut income tax on the rich, and government spending, while imposing huge tariffs. Which will increase wealth inequality, not reduce it.

Likewise, stopping immigration will reduce economic growth and increase inflation, making the poor worse off.

Those are the complex truths that are hard to sell.

For the disadvantaged of America, their choice will prove totally counter-productive.

[patrickbrian]

Mark 61

Why is it good news for Xi? I thought trump was going to introduce big tariffs for Chinese goods....

I was rather surprised to see the UK stock market rise this morning

[pjw1961]

Nov 6, 2024 8:59:51 GMT mark61 said:

Bad news for the Planet, the World (and in particular our) Economy if Trump brings in tariffs. Bad news for Ukraine, good news for Putin and Xi.   Not a great time to be outside the EU, there are 3 big Power blocks in the World, I would not relish closer ties with the other 2.

Good news for Putin yes, but not sure about Xi. Trump is not straightforward on this - seems to be a fan of Putin and Kim Jong Un, but very hawkish on China and Iran. If he keeps his word there will be a trade war with China and potentially a shooting one with Iran (Israel doing most of the actual shooting). 

His enthusiasm for fossil fuel is the most disturbing problem of them all. 

[pjw1961]

Nov 6, 2024 9:05:20 GMT colin said:

Nov 6, 2024 9:02:51 GMT pjw1961 said:

 

I've said many times (and lululemon said the same the other day) the normal result of this presidential cycle was a Republican victory based on the polling on the economy. 

Convenient for the Democratic Party !

One wonders why they bothered.

I would say the economy was highly inconvenient for the Democrats. 

This is not to say they haven't made mistakes. The first impeachment of Trump was a major error (as Nancy Pelosi tried to tell her more zealous colleagues) and I have never been a fan of all the court cases against Trump, which I think did him a lot of good. He was able to play the martyr quite effectively. 

[moby]

Nov 6, 2024 8:07:03 GMT colin said:

Nov 6, 2024 7:18:45 GMT pjw1961 said:

I think blaming Harris is misplaced, she fought about as good a campaign as was possible in the circumstances. 

I disagree.

The stuff i saw on tv news was vacuous sound bytes and endless moralising.

Maybe the policy stuff wasnt covered.

How can you not blame her for defeating a man which your fellow posters on UKPR2 have described as such an appalling person.

I certainly blame the Conservative Party for this Labour Government. And I blame Harris for what is coming.

It's easy to blame but it's clear to me this is still a very sexist world. In no way would Harris have got away with some of the things Trump said and did on the campaign. Just imagine the response if she had given her mic a 'blow job' and yet he did it and it made no difference. He was able to walk in to a rally with the song 'it's a man's world' playing. She was forced to play to different rules. Her task was harder.

[moby]

Nov 6, 2024 9:13:37 GMT patrickbrian said:

Mark 61

Why is it good news for Xi? I thought trump was going to introduce big tariffs for Chinese goods....

I was rather surprised to see the UK stock market rise this morning

I don't think the markets believe the tariffs promise. They think he'll be laissez faire in actuality.

[colin]

Nov 6, 2024 9:22:01 GMT pjw1961 said:

Nov 6, 2024 9:05:20 GMT colin said:

Convenient for the Democratic Party !

One wonders why they bothered.

I would say the economy was highly inconvenient for the Democrats. 

This is not to say they haven't made mistakes. The first impeachment of Trump was a major error (as Nancy Pelosi tried to tell her more zealous colleagues) and I have never been a fan of all the court cases against Trump, which I think did him a lot of good. He was able to play to martyr quite effectively. 

Just watching CNN's analysis of the voting trends.-geographical and demographic.

" He won everywhere " was an exasperated  but interesting remark by one of the presenters.

ie a very broad coalition.

Despite which the CNN desk is host to a troupe of Dems bleating about how awful its all going to be.