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Post by eor on Nov 6, 2024 2:14:49 GMT
Usual vote-splitting in New England between Presidential and Governor races, more interesting in Florida where it's looking like 57-58% have supported the ballot measure protecting abortion rights, even while about 56% have voted for Trump for President.
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 2:27:36 GMT
I wish we didn't have to wait so long for the big urban areas to fully report in Georgia..
Also, the Dems may have a chance in North Carolina.
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Post by Mark on Nov 6, 2024 2:28:33 GMT
North Carolina called for Trump  |
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Post by eor on Nov 6, 2024 2:29:31 GMT
Not seeing that North Carolina call Mark? |
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Post by Mark on Nov 6, 2024 2:34:54 GMT
eor Was said on the results program on Channel 4...not added to their totals so far, thouigh...I think one broadcaster made the call, but CNN don't seem to have as yet (CH4 are going with CNN calls for their results)...
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 2:37:57 GMT
Not seeing that North Carolina call Mark ? Reuters. |
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Post by thylacine on Nov 6, 2024 2:43:08 GMT
Not seeing that North Carolina call Mark ? Reuters. CNN site only has it as 59% reporting. Is it really behind? Trump leading at 51.1 % |
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Post by thylacine on Nov 6, 2024 2:49:06 GMT
Not looking good for the democrats though.
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 2:51:28 GMT
NC call seems premature but Trump is definitely a strong favourite there now.
Georgia isn't done yet.
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Post by eor on Nov 6, 2024 2:55:12 GMT
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 2:55:57 GMT
Not looking good for the democrats though. More than likely it's the Rust Belt or bust. |
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 3:07:23 GMT
It was the Sky news panel quoting reuters. |
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 3:19:34 GMT
So that Selzer Iowa poll was wrong!
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 3:22:19 GMT
So that Selzer Iowa poll was wrong! Yes. It seems so. But as a pollster you can only call it as you see it. |
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Post by eor on Nov 6, 2024 3:24:56 GMT
And massive kudos for publishing it despite the reputational risk.
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 3:33:48 GMT
Well unfortunately, I'm going to have to call it a night.
Best of luck folks!
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Post by eor on Nov 6, 2024 4:15:19 GMT
Ohio Senate seat goes to the Republicans - winning either Montana or Nebraska will give them a majority regardless of the Presidential outcome.
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Post by eor on Nov 6, 2024 4:51:49 GMT
North Carolina called for Trump. I suspect Georgia will shortly follow - I can't see where there's enough vote left for Harris there.
Assuming that happens, the calculations get very simple.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he's President.
If Harris wins Pennsylvania, whichever candidate wins any two of Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona is President.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 6, 2024 5:28:27 GMT
đź”´NYT Forcast Update:
đź”´Lean Trump - Michigan: Trump +2.1
đź”´Lean Trump - Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9
đź”´Lean Trump - Wisconsin: Trump +1.8
Not looking good for Harris, the US or the World
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,703
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 5:30:46 GMT
Morning everyone. Still all very nervy…
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,703
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 5:31:24 GMT
đź”´NYT Forcast Update: đź”´Lean Trump - Michigan: Trump +2.1 đź”´Lean Trump - Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9 đź”´Lean Trump - Wisconsin: Trump +1.8 Not looking good for Harris, the US or the World or maybe polling, again. (Or Fences) |
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 5:36:37 GMT
North Carolina called for Trump. I suspect Georgia will shortly follow - I can't see where there's enough vote left for Harris there. Assuming that happens, the calculations get very simple. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he's President. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, whichever candidate wins any two of Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona is President. Erie County Pennsylvania is going his way and he's just got Georgia. He's almost there now. |
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 5:38:41 GMT
Morning everyone. Still all vert nervy…oo Not really...it was pretty obvious when I saw those stock markets about 5 hours ago. |
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 5:43:58 GMT
The triple flip is on....
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,703
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 5:49:08 GMT
Morning everyone. Still all vert nervy…oo Not really...it was pretty obvious when I saw those stock markets about 5 hours ago. well glad you’re relaxed about it Moby. I think I need a coffee… |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,703
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 5:50:46 GMT
by way of distraction…
“Nevada votes thrown into chaos because young voters can’t sign their names
Roughly 13,000 mail-in ballots rejected after signatures do not match those already on file” (Telegraph)
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 5:56:42 GMT
Not really...it was pretty obvious when I saw those stock markets about 5 hours ago. well glad you’re relaxed about it Moby. I think I need a coffee… Pretty pissed off actually but Trump seems to have created a coalition of white middle/working classes, Latinos and young black males that are happy to vote for someone who's going to give tax cuts to millionaires. Labour needs to watch out for Reform. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 6, 2024 5:59:04 GMT
Hmm. Some analysys pointing out that black vote for trump up, hispanic vote up. Also youth vote. Now all of these were majority democrat voters, but Trump added maybe 10% compared to last time. Its curious yesterday all the talk was how democrats needed to win the rust belt, when first time when Trump won it was all about how he conquered the rust belt voters. This is all very familiar in terms of the UK vote for Farage, where in the recent election there was talk he had gained in these groups too, minority support but shifted Farage's way.
Just as in the Uk, the democrats as per labour have been losing the traditional working class. Just as here, where it was said con lost the elections rather than lab won, pundits arguing Harris failed to give anyone a good reason to vote for her. A republican pundit arguing Harris/Biden had a terrible foreign policy. He specifically mentioned concern over China, but I doubt a two year war in Ukraine dragging on has helped - it shouldnt have dragged on so long whatever you think the US did wrong. That guy with the keys to the white house, he had two maybe three keys dependent on successful foreign policy. Whats happening with US suporting Israel's invasion?
The neutral pundit arguing as I suggested, that people (or enough people) dont care about Trump's lies or chequered history. As per Johnson.
Ch4 discussing how there is no common ground between Trump and Harris campaigns. Each has a different version of what is true and false. Something different to the past, where the two sides had significant common ground. Two different incompatible versions of reality.
Some agreement including the Trump man, no idea what Trump will do in office. But a suggestion what voters like about him is he says and does what he thinks at the time. That various insults thrown out by trump during the campaign were vote winners not losers.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 6:03:21 GMT
well glad you’re relaxed about it Moby. I think I need a coffee… Pretty pissed off actually but Trump seems to have created a coalition of white middle/working classes, Latinos and young black males that are happy to vote for someone who's going to give tax cuts to millionaires. Labour needs to watch out for Reform. Yes, my take on Reform is that unlike Trump, they haven’t made sufficient play for the working class vote, as they are rather neolib. They talk about the impact of immigration on jobs but little else. Trump goes further, talks a lot about tariffs etc. If Reform go beyond immigration, then it’s more of a worry. Although Starmer has possibly more leeway to move left in response than Democrats in the US. It might be bad news for Tories though… |
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 6:03:23 GMT
...How can Minnesota be too close to call.
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