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Post by Mark on Nov 5, 2024 21:39:32 GMT
With just minutes to go until the first US polls close....
Results, speculation, predictions on the night of the results of the US election....
Lurkers are welcome to join up to join in...
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jib
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Post by jib on Nov 5, 2024 21:40:14 GMT
With just minutes to go until the first US polls close.... Results, speculation, predictions on the night of the results of the US election.... Hopefully not too much frothing!! |
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patrickbrian
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These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
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Post by patrickbrian on Nov 5, 2024 21:56:33 GMT
I am too worried . I am going to bed. I am afraid millions of Americans are going to vote for a criminal lunatic - well they are, whatever the result. Am I frothing?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 5, 2024 22:03:09 GMT
It seems more interesting and more in the UK media than previous US elections. Though that seems o be a bit of a trend. Maybe because having left the EU, we now serve at the pleasure of the US president more than ever before.
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Post by shevii on Nov 5, 2024 22:08:26 GMT
I am too worried . I am going to bed. I am afraid millions of Americans are going to vote for a criminal lunatic - well they are, whatever the result. Am I frothing? Also seems unlikely you would know the result even when you wake up anyway so even more tense staying up and maybe not too much going on. |
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Post by alec on Nov 5, 2024 22:13:43 GMT
Some nervous optimism being projected from Democratic sources, and some Republican accounts worrying about turnout. Too early to say if this has any meaning, but there are just the startings of a feeling that the apparent late poll movements picked up towards Harris may be showing through on the ground. Although in few hours, I may regret posting this....
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Post by alec on Nov 5, 2024 22:16:15 GMT
I'd say this is surprising. Economy + immigration 41%, abortion + state of democracy 50%.
Interesting.
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Post by alec on Nov 5, 2024 22:29:27 GMT
Philladelphia turnout being reported as exceptionally high, with the two lowest turnout districts the most republican in 2020.
Straws in the wind only.
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Post by mark61 on Nov 5, 2024 22:35:00 GMT
The Dow, Nasdaq and S+P 500 are all up. Read into that what you will.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 5, 2024 22:35:43 GMT
The implications for us all of a Trump win are so horrendous that this doesn't feel like a normal election.
While I'd normally be glued to the coverage I think it's more prudent to just hope the hell that sufficient Americans are sufficiently sane as to make the only sane choice.
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Post by Mark on Nov 5, 2024 22:47:09 GMT
Reports coming in that turnout is especially high in Trump supporting areas of Philadelphia....getting very nervous now...
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jib
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Post by jib on Nov 5, 2024 22:51:48 GMT
Reports coming in that turnout is especially high in Trump supporting areas of Philadelphia....getting very nervous now... Bookies haven't moved if anything slight movement to Trump. Squeaky. |
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jib
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Post by jib on Nov 5, 2024 23:05:47 GMT
"In the key state of Pennsylvania, 83 percent of voters were white, up from 81 percent in 2020, the exit poll found.
It found 9 percent of voters were black, down from 11 percent in 2020.
The proportion of Hispanic voters remained the same at 5 percent."
Source: Daily Mail
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Post by Mark on Nov 5, 2024 23:08:47 GMT
Boris Johnson is a complete arsehole.
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Post by RAF on Nov 5, 2024 23:12:49 GMT
"In the key state of Pennsylvania, 83 percent of voters were white, up from 81 percent in 2020, the exit poll found. It found 9 percent of voters were black, down from 11 percent in 2020. The proportion of Hispanic voters remained the same at 5 percent." Source: Daily Mail Not much change really. |
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jib
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Post by jib on Nov 5, 2024 23:13:23 GMT
Boris Johnson is a complete arsehole. Is this a recent revelation for you? |
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Post by mercian on Nov 5, 2024 23:24:54 GMT
I am too worried . I am going to bed. I am afraid millions of Americans are going to vote for a criminal lunatic - well they are, whatever the result. Am I frothing? Also seems unlikely you would know the result even when you wake up anyway so even more tense staying up and maybe not too much going on. Yes, there'll be a lot of speculation and reading the runes overnight but it seems unlikely that any clear trend will be known until morning, and possibly not then. |
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Post by laszlo4new on Nov 5, 2024 23:27:45 GMT
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Post by mercian on Nov 5, 2024 23:32:13 GMT
It seems more interesting and more in the UK media than previous US elections. Though that seems o be a bit of a trend. Maybe because having left the EU, we now serve at the pleasure of the US president more than ever before. I think it's because normally there doesn't seem to be a huge difference from our point of view - American presidents support NATO, their trade policies with us are more or less the same and so on. Trump is an unknown quantity though, even though he's been president before. His mental deterioration and fascist statements are potentially dangerous for world stability which is shaky enough at the best of times. |
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Post by pete on Nov 5, 2024 23:58:43 GMT
Listening to Jon Sopel on LBC and he said Harris is up Trump down, only slightly both cases and need more info.
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Post by eor on Nov 6, 2024 0:12:54 GMT
Just on exit polls - worth noting that US exit polls aren't an attempt to predict the winner but to project the demographics of who voted.
They are also prone to changing as more data is gathered.
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 0:23:25 GMT
Trump +2.5 after about 180k counted in Georgia.
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Post by Mark on Nov 6, 2024 0:23:59 GMT
Harris 4% up on Biden in Georgian suburb with 70% counted. Similar swing in Indiana...the latter was always Trump, but, early swings seem promising...
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 0:29:26 GMT
Trump piling up votes he doesn't really need amongst Cuban Hispanics in Florida.
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Post by eor on Nov 6, 2024 1:12:16 GMT
Florida called for Trump.
One caution with comparisons of how early that is and how big Trump's margin is compared to previously - it's often remarkable how fast a formerly swing state will shift once one side stops actively contesting it.
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Post by guymonde on Nov 6, 2024 1:16:35 GMT
Frustrating that the pundits I've found have no story of swing. OK Trump is winning Indiana and Harris Vermont but how does vote share compare to 2020?
I will have to wait up all night to get an impression
Mind you the bookies (or I know I really mean the punters) seem to have decided it's Trump 😱
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Post by eor on Nov 6, 2024 1:23:00 GMT
Frustrating that the pundits I've found have no story of swing. OK Trump is winning Indiana and Harris Vermont but how does vote share compare to 2020? I will have to wait up all night to get an impression Mind you the bookies (or I know I really mean the punters) seem to have decided it's Trump 😱 The swing is hard to express at this stage unless you're looking at a specific county where all/almost all the vote is in. The margin at state level will be moving back and forth depending where the remaining outstanding votes are. |
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 1:24:22 GMT
Frustrating that the pundits I've found have no story of swing. OK Trump is winning Indiana and Harris Vermont but how does vote share compare to 2020? I will have to wait up all night to get an impression Mind you the bookies (or I know I really mean the punters) seem to have decided it's Trump 😱 Tom King at the board on CNN is making a few comparisons district by district. |
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 1:56:59 GMT
Turnout very high in Pennsylvania.
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 2:04:39 GMT
Turnout very high in Pennsylvania. I guess the key question us- where in Pennsylvania? |
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