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Post by mark61 on Nov 6, 2024 9:41:48 GMT
Mark 61 Why is it good news for Xi? I thought trump was going to introduce big tariffs for Chinese goods.... I was rather surprised to see the UK stock market rise this morning I was thinking more of Trump being an America First President leaving a vacuum on Foreign Policy emboldening China's expansion, I take your point about tariffs having an effect on China.
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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 6, 2024 9:45:30 GMT
Bad news for the Planet, the World (and in particular our) Economy if Trump brings in tariffs. Bad news for Ukraine, good news for Putin and Xi. Not a great time to be outside the EU, there are 3 big Power blocks in the World, I would not relish closer ties with the other 2. Good news for Putin yes, but not sure about Xi. Trump is not straightforward on this - seems to be a fan of Putin and Kim Jong Un, but very hawkish on China and Iran. If he keeps his word there will be a trade war with China and potentially a shooting one with Iran (Israel doing most of the actual shooting). His enthusiasm for fossil fuel is the most disturbing problem of them all. Woke up to the appalling news that Trump had not only won the Electoral College, the Senate, and likely the House (BBC News showing a 3-seat swing to the Republicans) but even has a majority of the popular vote. I fear for Zelenskyy and Ukraine. With Trump being best mates with Putin and Ukraine being dependent on Musk's Starlink for their battlefield communications, to have to give up the territory they have already lost is the least of their problems. I expect Putin to push for Ukraine being formally a neutral state, not a part of either NATO or the EU. Then, when the next Ukranian election is called, I expect to see a puppet pro-Russian Government. Orban will make sure that the EU doesn't do anything about it. Meanwhile Le Pen is probably fancying her chances of becoming the next French President.
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Post by Mark on Nov 6, 2024 9:47:58 GMT
Re-the result and the related fall out...
On some things, I agree with what ohers have said in that Harris should have focused more on what she will do for genuinely struggling ordinary people...for example, her grocery price cap thing would have done more to help than anything Trump has proposed and, along with abortion, should have been front and centre.
I would also say there could have been less of the "big up us" stuff, bt, saying that, there is always more of that, from both parties, in the US than here, but, to this Welshman, it's just fluff.
Having said that, I cannot go along with refraining from attacking Trump's prejudices and deficiencies.
When he makes blatantly, overtly racist comments, should we not call him out on it?
When he boasts about grabbing women by the most private part of their bodies - without consent - should we not say that this is wrong and unacceptable?
When he tells blatent lies about immigrants eating cats and dogs, should we not call out his prejudiced-laden dishonesty?
Yes, focus on the bread and butter issues, but,if calling out the foul stuff is a route to losing elections, as some are implying, frankly, I may as well give up now...that is not a world I want to live in.
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Post by johntel on Nov 6, 2024 9:51:39 GMT
Mark 61 Why is it good news for Xi? I thought trump was going to introduce big tariffs for Chinese goods.... I was rather surprised to see the UK stock market rise this morning The FTSE100 rose because the dollar strengthened - most FTSE100 companies trade internationally and their income is mostly in dollars.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 6, 2024 10:00:36 GMT
So re the polling - not a complete miss in the US election, but it does seem that once more the polls have somewhat under-estimated Trump (and to some degree other Republican candidates as well). Which would make the third presidential election in a row.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 10:07:49 GMT
So re the polling - not a complete miss in the US election, but it does seem that once more the polls have somewhat under-estimated Trump (and to some degree other Republican candidates as well). Which would make the third presidential election in a row. Thank heavens they couldn’t possibly ever be anything but neutral Mark 61 Why is it good news for Xi? I thought trump was going to introduce big tariffs for Chinese goods.... I was rather surprised to see the UK stock market rise this morning I was thinking more of Trump being an America First President leaving a vacuum on Foreign Policy emboldening China's expansion, I take your point about tariffs having an effect on China. There is an argument that the reason Russia didn’t invade Ukraine on Trump’s watch, is that his unpredictability and volatility is an asset: they don’t know how he will respond. (Now, this could be clutching at straws a bit, but I would hate to be left out of any straw-clutching and see any straw left unclutched)
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 10:14:30 GMT
It's amazing in how many swing states Trunp is winning by 2=3%. He could ultimately win the whole of the Rust Belt by that margin.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 6, 2024 10:15:15 GMT
Well, we get to watch Trump fight his dementia over the next 4 years. My guess is he'll disappear more as the years go on and Vance will take centre stage. Three things. Presumably right now he is knackered from the campaign. He has always been somewhat away from the mainstream. The opposition campaign has concentrated so much on his perceived failings, it has rather driven his campaign to owning them and playing them up. I can quite see him having behaved exactly the same when dining out with libearce long before he became famous.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 6, 2024 10:19:57 GMT
I've said many times (and lululemon said the same the other day) the normal result of this presidential cycle was a Republican victory based on the polling on the economy. The only reason is was at all competitive was Trump's divisive personality. I gave this a 'like', because it strikes me as a fundamental truth about the election. However....the background to this is dwindling voter support for both parties which has allowed extreme positions to emerge. The consensus in the democratic world which existed after WW2 is completely broken and class war is back big time, without obvious champions.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 6, 2024 10:23:06 GMT
Managed to get a few fitful hours sleep and woke at 5.30 with nervous optimism to get the sucker punch. Painful. Was so looking forward to seeing the back of Mr T for ever but he’s like a virus that just gets stronger.
In 2020 I was overjoyed when Biden won but in hindsight now I wish Trump had won a second term back then. It would have been the normal order of things and he’d now be finally departing to be replaced with some democrat who would have been thoroughly prepared. Biden was an emergency candidate in that year and that I think was part of the problem. Someone Biden’s age should never have got the nomination. There was zero longterm thought.
One silver lining I think is that Europe and esp. Germany will now have no choice but to get their act together on security and cast the reliance on the US finally into the bin. It’s not as if there’s been no warning. The US has been looking to pivot away from Europe since 2008 under a certain Barack Obama and the direction of travel has been clear for a long time even if the waters have been muddied of late by Ukraine. As Danny pointed out Europe and esp Germany really need to finally smell the coffee. We need to develop a military/industrial complex similar to that of the US. It would also serve to stimulate European economies. 1945 was a very long time ago. It’s a ludicrously long term to expect to remain under another country’s security umbrella.
This may sound provocative but I also think the Democrats are not great on foreign/security policy. It was Obama’s dithering over whether to intervene in Syria that allowed Russia to intervene there, emboldening Putin in his ambitions and allowing the survival of the Assad regime. Worse than that, Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was, lets be honest, the trigger for Putin believing he could get away with invading Ukraine. Putin thought America was running home with its tail between its legs. If Trump had been in power at that point I don’t think he would have withdrawn from Afghanistan, certainly not in the way that it was done if only because he wouldn’t want to look weak and I don’t think Putin would have dared to invade Ukraine, at least not in the full scale, no going back manner he did, not least because Trump wasn’t predictable. In that sense successive Democratic presidents have allowed Putin to be emboldened in his ambitions to 'make Russia great again'..
Biden has also dithered and been inconsistent on support for Ukraine in a way that GW never would have (but then of course Russia would never have dared invade Ukraine with a US under GW).
On support for Ukraine Trump taking office will dovetail with the point that this war really needs to be ended. It will have been three years. I’ve always vociferously supported Ukraine and think Russia should be seen to pay for violating the international order and established borders. However no country will continue to throw billions after billions into another country’s war with no apparent hope of taking more territory back while people continue to be killed and economic assets are destroyed. It needs to end now, even at the current line of demarcation with firm guarantees. A Korea type result. May not be stable in the longterm but I don’t see any other choice and I don’t think Harris would have been able to do anything different. Perhaps Putin’s supposed relationship with Trump may even help in that respect.
I honestly can’t put myself into the head of an independent who voted for Trump. Who overlooked all the ugliness in plain view just because they think fuel might be a few cents cheaper or something similar. There definitely was a time when morality and character mattered more to Republican American voters. In 2004 I remember interviews with several saying how they identified with George W’s moral code. That aspect of apparent amoral voting I find particularly dystopian.
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Post by RAF on Nov 6, 2024 10:31:23 GMT
Re-the result and the related fall out... On some things, I agree with what ohers have said in that Harris should have focused more on what she will do for genuinely struggling ordinary people...for example, her grocery price cap thing would have done more to help than anything Trump has proposed and, along with abortion, should have been front and centre. I would also say there could have been less of the "big up us" stuff, bt, saying that, there is always more of that, from both parties, in the US than here, but, to this Welshman, it's just fluff. Having said that, I cannot go along with refraining from attacking Trump's prejudices and deficiencies. When he makes blatantly, overtly racist comments, should we not call him out on it? When he boasts about grabbing women by the most private part of their bodies - without consent - should we not say that this is wrong and unacceptable? When he tells blatent lies about immigrants eating cats and dogs, should we not call out his prejudiced-laden dishonesty? Yes, focus on the bread and butter issues, but,if calling out the foul stuff is a route to losing elections, as some are implying, frankly, I may as well give up now...that is not a world I want to live in. This is becoming increasingly common globally. Populist Right/ethno nationalist language and policies are thriving in many places. As a result criticism of the conduct of politicians espousing these view through words or conduct isn't having much of an effect at the ballot box. In the case of Harris/Trump though this plays into a wider malaise. A social liberal but otherwise centrist machine type candidate cannot defeat the populist Right candidate. The Dems steadfast refusal to take to even economic social democracy means they are practically abandoning those who could be won over. Let's also not ignore the spectre of the Gaza=Lebanon war in depressing Dem turnout amongst the student and progressive vote in some of the key swing states. It's hardly being discussed on TV, but it has been a significant factor.
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Nov 6, 2024 10:37:06 GMT
carfrew
"I would hate to be left out of any straw-clutching and see any straw left unclutched"
Quite! Another straw is that Trump does not appear to be much into wars. He prefers golf. In this he is unlike many leaders (Henry V, Thatcher, Hitler , Blair come to mind) who seem to love the excitement (and know they are on the 'right' side). I expect the Ukraine war to end with a murky compromise. Israel? God knows. I suspect the US arabs who voted for him because of Biden's support for Israel may regret it. But I don't think Trump enjoys bombing for bombing's sake..... Is that even a straw?
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Post by johntel on Nov 6, 2024 10:38:43 GMT
... On support for Ukraine Trump taking office will dovetail with the point that this war really needs to be ended. It will have been three years. I’ve always vociferously supported Ukraine and think Russia should be seen to pay for violating the international order and established borders. However no country will continue to throw billions after billions into another country’s war with no apparent hope of taking more territory back while people continue to be killed and economic assets are destroyed. It needs to end now, even at the current line of demarcation with firm guarantees. A Korea type result. May not be stable in the longterm but I don’t see any other choice and I don’t think Harris would have been able to do anything different. Perhaps Putin’s supposed relationship with Trump may even help in that respect. ... Yes, this war was always about those security guarantees. Let's hope Trump will enforce guarantees that will stick, at least until Putin dies (because he will never relinquish power until then).
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Post by mark61 on Nov 6, 2024 10:46:32 GMT
domjg, glad to see you posting, on your last point I don't think issues of character matter to a large proportion of the electorate, whether it is as a result of the drip effect of the 'They're all the same' mantra or that a Sinner at the helm isn't a problem for those who Sin themselves! I recall a discussion during the 2019 Election with a younger colleague who was completely unfazed by Johnsons Character flaws, which surprised me maybe it is a generational thing.
I agree with you that Europe needs to wake up, it's had enough warnings that the US will not indefinitely underwrite European security, this includes the UK as well We will have to find some Money from somewhere to increase Defence Spending not something I thought I'd find myself saying.
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Nov 6, 2024 10:47:11 GMT
Domjg
Who is GW? George Washington? Or Bush jr?
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 6, 2024 10:47:43 GMT
carfrew In this he is unlike many leaders (Henry V, Thatcher, Hitler , Blair come to mind) You aren't graham by another name are you
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Nov 6, 2024 10:51:47 GMT
PJW
no. Their similarity clearly is only an enthusiasm for war!
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 6, 2024 10:53:58 GMT
Biden was an emergency candidate in that year and that I think was part of the problem. Someone Biden’s age should never have got the nomination. There was zero longterm thought. Worse than that, Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was, lets be honest, the trigger for Putin believing he could get away with invading Ukraine. Putin thought America was running home with its tail between its legs. If Trump had been in power at that point I don’t think he would have withdrawn from Afghanistan, certainly not in the way that it was done if only because he wouldn’t want to look weak Agree with a lot of your post, but on the two points above: Many Democrats thought in 2020 that Biden was agreeing to be a one term president who would promote and build-up a successor. He appeared to hint that himself. But the old boy's ego took over. The Trump administration planned the Afghan withdrawal - it was his policy that Biden inherited and implemented. Maybe it would have played out a little differently under Trump, but the basic policy would have been the same. "As part of the United States–Taliban deal, the Trump administration agreed to an initial reduction of US forces from 13,000 to 8,600 troops by July 2020, followed by a complete withdrawal by 1 May 2021, if the Taliban kept its commitments." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_U.S._troop_withdrawal_from_Afghanistan#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20United,the%20Taliban%20kept%20its%20commitments.
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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 6, 2024 11:08:58 GMT
Biden was an emergency candidate in that year and that I think was part of the problem. Someone Biden’s age should never have got the nomination. There was zero longterm thought. Worse than that, Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was, lets be honest, the trigger for Putin believing he could get away with invading Ukraine. Putin thought America was running home with its tail between its legs. If Trump had been in power at that point I don’t think he would have withdrawn from Afghanistan, certainly not in the way that it was done if only because he wouldn’t want to look weak Agree with a lot of your post, but on the two points above: Many Democrats thought in 2020 that Biden was agreeing to be a one term president who would promote and build-up a successor. He appeared to hint that himself. But the old boy's ego took over. The Trump administration planned the Afghan withdrawal - it was his policy that Biden inherited and implemented. Maybe it would have played out a little differently under Trump, but the basic policy would have been the same. "As part of the United States–Taliban deal, the Trump administration agreed to an initial reduction of US forces from 13,000 to 8,600 troops by July 2020, followed by a complete withdrawal by 1 May 2021, if the Taliban kept its commitments." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_U.S._troop_withdrawal_from_Afghanistan#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20United,the%20Taliban%20kept%20its%20commitments. You can't expect the misogynist that is Trump to care about women's rights in Afghanistan when he doesn't in the USA. Here's Andrew Marr in New Statesman on Trump's victory and its consequences. Some quotes: I spoke this week to Sergei Markov, the former advisor to the Russian president, and well-connected Moscow politics professor. He said he expected Trump almost immediately to call Putin and Zelensky to demand an immediate ceasefire, followed by talks which would recognise the Ukrainian conflict as, essentially, a civil one between Russians rather than independent states. ... Unless he dramatically changes his mind, a Trump-imposed settlement, giving Putin the eastern third of Ukraine, would surely result in the fall of Zelensky, further Russian advances, and then Russian – and now, North Korean – troops pushing against Nato’s borders. ... This is also a major cultural victory for the right and we should not look away from that. The triumphant return of Trump is a reassertion of patriarchal, nationalist instincts against a world it caricatures as infected by “cultural Marxism”. This is bad news for migrants, wherever they are. It is bad news for women who want control of their bodies. It is bad news for the liberal, scientific, post-enlightenment mindset. ... In Britain too, the Trump triumph will revitalise and enthuse a right scattered and demoralised by the general election. It makes Keir Starmer’s project of bolstering Britain on the world stage infinitely more complicated. It gives Reform UK in general, and Nigel Farage in particular, an obvious new relevance in British affairs; how, I wonder, will the Tories under Kemi Badenoch respond?
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Post by pete on Nov 6, 2024 11:16:08 GMT
carfrew "I would hate to be left out of any straw-clutching and see any straw left unclutched" Quite! Another straw is that Trump does not appear to be much into wars. He prefers golf. In this he is unlike many leaders (Henry V, Thatcher, Hitler , Blair come to mind) who seem to love the excitement (and know they are on the 'right' side). I expect the Ukraine war to end with a murky compromise. Israel? God knows. I suspect the US arabs who voted for him because of Biden's support for Israel may regret it. But I don't think Trump enjoys bombing for bombing's sake..... Is that even a straw? You're joking? He's spent months telling the world he's going after his political enemies and now has people around him who will help him. He's not going to worry about bombing anyone/anything.
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markw
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Post by markw on Nov 6, 2024 11:27:40 GMT
I am so miserable today.
I think it was the assassination attempt that won it for trump. Trump shouting fight fight fight fist pumping the air with a bloody fist was so powerful and strengthened his strong man image.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 6, 2024 11:29:38 GMT
Domjg Who is GW? George Washington? Or Bush jr? Sorry, Bush jr aka Dubya.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 6, 2024 11:33:59 GMT
leftieliberal "In Britain too, the Trump triumph will revitalise and enthuse a right scattered and demoralised by the general election" The populist right relies on never being in power to sell it's all things to all fairytale messages. Constrained by power I think this Republican administration will be less attractive long term as a fantasy template to populists around the world.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 6, 2024 11:37:12 GMT
I honestly can’t put myself into the head of an independent who voted for Trump. Who overlooked all the ugliness in plain view just because they think fuel might be a few cents cheaper or something similar. I see JiB and Colin have endorsed Danny's contention that "Its simple truths, growing wealth disparity is unaceptable to those losing out. Constant immigration is unacceptable in just about every country on earth." The simple lies I was talking about weren't about the nature of the problems, as Danny suggests, but about the glib, easy answers on offer. The electorate's concerns are real and straightforward. It's the proferred solutions that are the simple lies, when the issues are far more complex than that. So, yes, growing wealth disparity is unacceptable. The Trump/Musk solution is to cut income tax on the rich, and government spending, while imposing huge tariffs. Which will increase wealth inequality, not reduce it. Likewise, stopping immigration will reduce economic growth and increase inflation, making the poor worse off. Those are the complex truths that are hard to sell. It is reported a lot of people do not like Trump or his personal behaviour, but they do like his policy. The policy is more important. Somerjohn, you argue the issue is far more complex, but I dont agree - its simple for a voter, they want immigration ended. Does no one understand the meaning of 'ended'? Its not an option, whatever complex solution is required, we must move to an economy requiring less human labour. Japan has been doing it for years, no immigration. A very successful economy. Maybe could have been more successful with more labour, but they are doing fine defying economic orthodoxy. It may be the case the majority arent bothered about immigration, but the more there is the more will be, and it doesnt matter if most are fine with it. The majority of voters have lost faith in either main party in both the US and UK, they are no longer tribally loyal. Support is diminishing. In the face of this any group which can generate a substantial block can take over government. The only solution is to end immigration, and end reliance on immigrant labour. It is no longer an option if you intend to survive politically long term. Most parties though have accepted short term wins, as Harris hoped for now, evading these issues. Long term its a recipe for party destruction.
Ditto wealth disparity. Its simple for a voter, this must be ended. To do that you need to reverse the tax and spend regimes which are raising too much from the poor and spending too much on the rich. I suspect the US has the exact same problem as the UK with housing being a huge tax on the poor. And a couple of reports suggest food prices in the US have rocketed in recent years - the US used to be a cheap food country. The democrates have spent decades saying just elect us and we will fix it, sure its complicated so takes time, but its got worse each time. Its simple, they lied, a couple of people I heard interviewed said the democrats never did anything for me. To solve this the democratoc party, which frankly looks to me like a right wing party of the wealthy, has to stop favouring the wealthy and truly favour the poor. They arent prepared to do that, and thats why genuinely poor voters have deserted them.
Trump isnt a republican, he is Trump. He isnt the republican brand either, thats how he has succeeded. If he makes a mess of it, it will not help the democrats who have already proven they too made a mess of it. Instead the system is collapsing because no one supports any party. The poor will continue in rebellion until the parties of the rich cease favouring the rich. And the numbers of poor is increasing.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 12:37:13 GMT
Mark 61 Why is it good news for Xi? I thought trump was going to introduce big tariffs for Chinese goods.... I was rather surprised to see the UK stock market rise this morning I don't think the markets believe the tariffs promise. They think he'll be laissez faire in actuality. over on social media, they were exploring Trump’s position on things like tariffs, playing clips of interviews from before he went into politics. He’s been a fan of tariffs for a long time. Not that this necessarily means he’ll do loads of tariffs, but it could be that he really does approve of them. We shall see how much realpolitik etc. intervenes in practice…
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Post by alec on Nov 6, 2024 12:45:40 GMT
domjg - "Was so looking forward to seeing the back of Mr T for ever but he’s like a virus that just gets stronger." Yes They sometime mutate to become more severe..... On the next four years: as others have said, watch for the mental decline, but watch also for whether Trump ameliorates some of his policies. He likely won't, but I don't think the man actually believes a word of what he says; it's said the win whatever support he needs to win elections. Now he won't be facing another election, who knows? The abortion thing is a case in point. He appointed the judges to overturn Roe because that's what his coalition wanted, and he needed their votes, but he doesn't actually want to ban abortion - his line was let states decide, they are, and nearly all of them are backing abortion. You could make a case that the Republican focus on this issue has backfired, because now, state by state, rights are being enshrined in their constitutions and nothing the president or federal government can do will over turn that. On foreign policy, clearly Ukrainians will be terrified, but in 2016 Moscow celebrated and Trump slapped huge tariffs on them. This time Moscow was decidedly ambivalent about this unstable man. Taiwan may be a little less bothered, but in truth, no one really knows. Biden has been asleep at the wheel with China, allowing US military support industries to wither away, particularly when it comes to naval power, which China is ramping up. Chinese generals believe that by 2027 they will be able to successfully invade Taiwan without the US being capable of stopping them. Trump might challenge this thinking, and that *could* be to our advantage. Or it could be war. We don't really know. Second terms are strange beast, Trump himself is the strangest of strange beasts. Who knows what might happen.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 6, 2024 12:54:31 GMT
leftieliberal "In Britain too, the Trump triumph will revitalise and enthuse a right scattered and demoralised by the general election" The populist right relies on never being in power to sell it's all things to all fairytale messages. Constrained by power I think this Republican administration will be less attractive long term as a fantasy template to populists around the world. They are in power in Hungary, Italy, Austria, Slovakia - arguably Russia too, given Putin seems to be their hero figure. I suppose the fact the Republican vote now contains significant numbers of Latinos, Jews and Black men might restrain the white supremacist element in that party a bit.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 6, 2024 13:37:59 GMT
The status of liberty.Last seen walking back to France!
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 6, 2024 13:44:02 GMT
Where Le Pen will have it deported as an illegal immigrant?
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Post by colin on Nov 6, 2024 14:00:09 GMT
I agree with you that Europe needs to wake up, it's had enough warnings that the US will not indefinitely underwrite European security, this includes the UK as well We will have to find some Money from somewhere to increase Defence Spending not something I thought I'd find myself saying. Its not just a matter of money. A European Defence Capability means interoperable equipment sourced & managed co-operatively . Something the EU members have found impossible to achieve thus far :- www.csis.org/analysis/solving-europes-defense-dilemma-overcoming-challenges-european-defense-cooperationMacron & Scholz have just arranged an emergency meeting with their defence ministers in light of the Trump Presidency. Same old. Same Old-Macron wants EU " Strategic Defence" (using French kit !). Germany wants freedom to purchase from anywhere. That neither of these two will be making decisions about anything during most of Trump's term somewhat highlights the problem. Quite why they haven't invited Poland who are already taking Defence very seriously is interesting. Poland of course -fast becoming EU's major defence capability-is wedded to NATO and to US equipment:- breakingdefense.com/2024/07/us-giving-poland-another-2b-loan-to-buy-american-made-weapons/A Trump Presidency is likely to prove , one way or another, on both defence & trade, whether the idea of EU solidarity ,co-operation & common purpose is a reality.
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