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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 6:10:52 GMT
Pretty pissed off actually but Trump seems to have created a coalition of white middle/working classes, Latinos and young black males that are happy to vote for someone who's going to give tax cuts to millionaires. Labour needs to watch out for Reform. Yes, my take on Reform is that unlike Trump, they haven’t made sufficient play for the working class vote, as they are rather neolib. They talk about the impact of immigration on jobs but little else. Trump goes further, talks a lot about tariffs etc. If Reform go beyond immigration, then it’s more of a worry. Although Starmer has possibly more leeway to move left in response than Democrats in the US. It might be bad news for Tories though… Trump has four years now unshackled by the House to do what he wants, perhaps he'll get Musk to build his wall. Incumbents are having a hard time all over the world. Let's hope his crew can control him 🙏. |
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Post by eor on Nov 6, 2024 6:12:36 GMT
The House is still looking very close - both sides seem to be picking up seats here and there.
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Post by alec on Nov 6, 2024 6:15:52 GMT
All over. Early optimism the same as previous years. Big implications, none of them good. Depressing, more so because a criminal has persuaded a country to vote for him, and the message that gives to odious individuals.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 6:15:53 GMT
The neutral pundit arguing as I suggested, that people (or enough people) dont care about Trump's lies or chequered history. As per Johnson. Social media is changing things. The liberal media may focus on Trump’s bull, but then on social media they point out Democrat bullshit in return. It’s like over here: people complain about Tory lies but ignore Starmer’s bollocks over the pledges, for eggers |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 6, 2024 6:17:56 GMT
On the positive side it appears most of the pro abortion referendums will succeed, with the exception of Floruda, where it's likely to just miss the 60% threshold
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 6:19:08 GMT
Yes, my take on Reform is that unlike Trump, they haven’t made sufficient play for the working class vote, as they are rather neolib. They talk about the impact of immigration on jobs but little else. Trump goes further, talks a lot about tariffs etc. If Reform go beyond immigration, then it’s more of a worry. Although Starmer has possibly more leeway to move left in response than Democrats in the US. It might be bad news for Tories though… Trump has four years now unshackled by the House to do what he wants, perhaps he'll get Musk to build his wall. Incumbents are having a hard time all over the world. Let's hope his crew can control him 🙏. Yep this is where we may find out how much was just incendiary to get attention, and how much he really meant 😮 |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 6, 2024 6:20:08 GMT
Reporter pointing out a poll which said 60% of americans are dissatisfied with how the political system works. And that the democrats were cast as the supporters of the system, whereas Trump was the one who would tear down the system. Pretty much all he has been accused of casts him in that line of being the outsider. All this likewise applies to the UK and distrust of a failing system which structure includes the duopoly rulers.
So whats the odds on Prime minister Farage in an election or two?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 6, 2024 6:26:26 GMT
Trump wins Pennsylvania and the Presidency
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Post by colin on Nov 6, 2024 6:27:52 GMT
All over. Early optimism the same as previous years. Big implications, none of them good. Depressing, more so because a criminal has persuaded a country to vote for him, and the message that gives to odious individuals. Maybe if she had stopped calling him Hitler and found some policy criticism of him-or even presented a reason to vote Dem-she might not have lost. She bigged up on abortion. He built a broad based demographic coalition. |
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Post by neilj on Nov 6, 2024 6:31:02 GMT
All over. Early optimism the same as previous years. Big implications, none of them good. Depressing, more so because a criminal has persuaded a country to vote for him, and the message that gives to odious individuals. Maybe if she had stopped calling him Hitler and found some policy criticism of him-or even presented a reason to vote Dem-she might not have lost. I'm not sure she ever personally called him Hitler, his Vice-president candidate, JD Vance of course did |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 6, 2024 6:35:15 GMT
Pretty pissed off actually but Trump seems to have created a coalition of white middle/working classes, Latinos and young black males that are happy to vote for someone who's going to give tax cuts to millionaires. Labour needs to watch out for Reform. Thats all very well to say, but the democrats too support tax concessions for millionaires. So why vote for them? This follows maybe 40 -50 years of affluence moving away form the poor to the rich. Its very hollow now for either lab or dem to claim to be the party of the working class. |
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Post by colin on Nov 6, 2024 6:35:16 GMT
Maybe if she had stopped calling him Hitler and found some policy criticism of him-or even presented a reason to vote Dem-she might not have lost. I'm not sure she ever personally called him Hitler, his Vice-president candidate, JD Vance of course did So Neil. You tell me. How the hell did she lose to this man ? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 6, 2024 6:36:58 GMT
How the world lives with a fascist U.S. led by a criminal rapist lunatic, climate change denying, economic illiterate, Putin stooge is any one's guess but it's not going to be pretty.
Starmer better get serious about closer relationships with the European union, we're going to need all the friends we can get in a truly fucked up situation.
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 6:38:00 GMT
All over. Early optimism the same as previous years. Big implications, none of them good. Depressing, more so because a criminal has persuaded a country to vote for him, and the message that gives to odious individuals. The Ukrainian people will be saying 'pray for us'. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 6:38:38 GMT
All over. Early optimism the same as previous years. Big implications, none of them good. Depressing, more so because a criminal has persuaded a country to vote for him, and the message that gives to odious individuals. Maybe if she had stopped calling him Hitler and found some policy criticism of him-or even presented a reason to vote Dem-she might not have lost. She bigged up on abortion. He built a broad based demographic coalition. I think for you, like me, that interview was a heads up. She can’t do interviews, but Trump could go on Rogan for three hours straight. The teleprompter breaks and she keeps repeating the same thing over and over till they fix it, when it happens to Trump he just ad libs. It was like putting Theresa May up against Boris Johnson. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 6, 2024 6:41:04 GMT
All over. Early optimism the same as previous years. Big implications, none of them good. Depressing, more so because a criminal has persuaded a country to vote for him, and the message that gives to odious individuals. The Ukrainian people will be saying 'pray for us'. Big worry. Though some said Trump sent the Javelins to Ukraine to help them fend off the initial attack? It’s not enough to be anything like confident though! |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 6, 2024 6:41:51 GMT
Let's hope the US electorate enjoyed their last presidential election.
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Post by alec on Nov 6, 2024 6:43:37 GMT
colin - "Maybe if she had stopped calling him Hitler and found some policy criticism of him-or even presented a reason to vote Dem-she might not have lost. She bigged up on abortion. He built a broad based demographic coalition." Indeed. I winced when she started using the F word. Lessons here for Labour. Trump won, then was thrown out because he was awful, now he's back. The loonie right can and will win again if the left simply dismisses them as fascist loonies and fails to address working class concerns (however you define WC). That Trump appears to have won plenty of white working class men will raise a chorus along the lines of classic leftist theory of the patriarchy etc etc, but that doesn't win elections. Many states have backed legal protection for abortion and then voted for Trump. It's a sign that you need to tackle bread and butter issues, not base your appeal on political theory about who should vote for whom.
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 6:48:05 GMT
Pretty pissed off actually but Trump seems to have created a coalition of white middle/working classes, Latinos and young black males that are happy to vote for someone who's going to give tax cuts to millionaires. Labour needs to watch out for Reform. Thats all very well to say, but the democrats too support tax concessions for millionaires. So why vote for them? This follows maybe 40 -50 years of affluence moving away form the poor to the rich. Its very hollow now for either lab or dem to claim to be the party of the working class. Agreed no party can claim to be the party of the working class The bottom line is over the last 4 years the working classes of all colours have been crushed by inflation, the cost of fuel, power etc. The recent reduction in inflation came too late for the Democrats and when people are unhappy the incumbent party pays. |
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Post by neilj on Nov 6, 2024 6:50:58 GMT
I'm not sure she ever personally called him Hitler, his Vice-president candidate, JD Vance of course did So Neil. You tell me. How the hell did she lose to this man ? Lots of reasons, including Musk rigging twitter to pour out huge amounts of misinformation on a daily basis But the underlying reason is that it's a bad time to be an incumbent. A lot of incumbent governments have been getting punished across the World due to the economic turmoil, US politics isn't any different. Harris couldn't shake that off. On the other hand Trump was able to pretend there were simple solutions, namely 20% plus tariffs on all imports so protecting US jobs In addition send in the Army to remove millions of undocumented immigrants over a few weeks End the warin Ukraine overnight Many people like a simple, easy to understand message, but like most simple solutions they're not that simple and almost certainly not a solution Imposing big tariffs will stoke inflation and almost certainly lead to a trade war Sending in troops to remove immigrants in weeks is logistically and legally a non starter The only way hell end the warin Ukraine is to give into Putin and sell Ukraine down the river Of course when he can't do this he'll seek to blame others or claim it's not what he meant |
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Post by colin on Nov 6, 2024 6:51:51 GMT
colin - "Maybe if she had stopped calling him Hitler and found some policy criticism of him-or even presented a reason to vote Dem-she might not have lost. She bigged up on abortion. He built a broad based demographic coalition." Indeed. I winced when she started using the F word. Lessons here for Labour. Trump won, then was thrown out because he was awful, now he's back. The loonie right can and will win again if the left simply dismisses them as fascist loonies and fails to address working class concerns (however you define WC). That Trump appears to have won plenty of white working class men will raise a chorus along the lines of classic leftist theory of the patriarchy etc etc, but that doesn't win elections. Many states have backed legal protection for abortion and then voted for Trump. It's a sign that you need to tackle bread and butter issues, not base your appeal on political theory about who should vote for whom. She never addressed the economic difficulties which Biden inflicted on the low paid-hence the hispanic/black vote for Trump. May its not possible for a VP to run on her bosses record when it has caused this degree of economic hurt. ? I always found her a cackling grotesque. |
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Post by colin on Nov 6, 2024 6:53:14 GMT
So Neil. You tell me. How the hell did she lose to this man ? Lots of reasons, including Musk rigging twitter to pour out huge amounts of misinformation on a daily basis But the underlying reason is that it's a bad time to be an incumbent. A lot of incumbent governments have been getting punished across the World due to the economic turmoil, US politics isn't any different. Harris couldn't shake that off. On the other hand Trump was able to pretend there were simple solutions, namely 20% plus tariffs on all imports so protecting US jobs In addition send in the Army to remove millions of undocumented immigrants over a few weeks Many people like a simple, easy to understand message, but like most simple solutions they're not that simple and almost certainly not a solution Imposing big tariffs will stoke inflation and almost certainly lead to a trade war Sending in troops to remove immigrants in weeks is logistically and legally a non starter Of course when he can't do this he'll seek to blame others or claim it's not what he meant I asked why she lost-not how he won. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 6, 2024 6:53:57 GMT
She bigged up on abortion. And it worked- amongst women. But the fip side of the supreme court decision was not that it banned abortion, but that it said this was a matter for states to decided for themselves. Which interpreted differently is a pro freedom change. Historically the original decision came at a time the US was moving to be more liberal. Well that liberty was achieved, but obviously some didnt like that, and so eventually reclaimed the right to be restrictive about abortion. Not sure he did. Switching black votes from 80% dem to 70% dem isnt exctly broad based. Havnt looked at the details but to win in the US you probably only need 1/3 or less of potential voters to turn out for you. Sarah Palin arguing that many americans believe the federal government has too much power. That it was intended to have minimal control over states, its powers have crept bigger and bigger through interpretation of the constitution. And many want that reversed. Pundit arguing inflation is why Harris lost. Inflation of course happened because of covid lockdown. So whether or not China did anything whatsoever to spread covid as per various claims, the fact it spread from China across the world, caused Trump to be elected as president of the US. |
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Post by moby on Nov 6, 2024 6:56:46 GMT
Lots of reasons, including Musk rigging twitter to pour out huge amounts of misinformation on a daily basis But the underlying reason is that it's a bad time to be an incumbent. A lot of incumbent governments have been getting punished across the World due to the economic turmoil, US politics isn't any different. Harris couldn't shake that off. On the other hand Trump was able to pretend there were simple solutions, namely 20% plus tariffs on all imports so protecting US jobs In addition send in the Army to remove millions of undocumented immigrants over a few weeks Many people like a simple, easy to understand message, but like most simple solutions they're not that simple and almost certainly not a solution Imposing big tariffs will stoke inflation and almost certainly lead to a trade war Sending in troops to remove immigrants in weeks is logistically and legally a non starter Of course when he can't do this he'll seek to blame others or claim it's not what he meant I asked why she lost-not how he won. That's already all out there. Surely the question now is will he keep his promises....project 2025....politicising the state etc? |
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Post by neilj on Nov 6, 2024 6:57:33 GMT
Lots of reasons, including Musk rigging twitter to pour out huge amounts of misinformation on a daily basis But the underlying reason is that it's a bad time to be an incumbent. A lot of incumbent governments have been getting punished across the World due to the economic turmoil, US politics isn't any different. Harris couldn't shake that off. On the other hand Trump was able to pretend there were simple solutions, namely 20% plus tariffs on all imports so protecting US jobs In addition send in the Army to remove millions of undocumented immigrants over a few weeks Many people like a simple, easy to understand message, but like most simple solutions they're not that simple and almost certainly not a solution Imposing big tariffs will stoke inflation and almost certainly lead to a trade war Sending in troops to remove immigrants in weeks is logistically and legally a non starter Of course when he can't do this he'll seek to blame others or claim it's not what he meant I asked why she lost-not how he won. Yes and I replied 'underlying reason is that it's a bad time to be an incumbent. A lot of incumbent governments have been getting punished across the World due to the economic turmoil, US politics isn't any different. Harris couldn't shake that off' |
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Post by colin on Nov 6, 2024 7:00:34 GMT
Then i suggest you watch Sky News, excellent county level demographic analysis of how Trump has taken long time Dem latino/black strongholds |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 6, 2024 7:03:34 GMT
All over. Early optimism the same as previous years. Big implications, none of them good. Depressing, more so because a criminal has persuaded a country to vote for him, and the message that gives to odious individuals. The traditional parties post WW2 felt obliged to adopt policies to help the returning troops. Ordinary people who had just been trained to kill, who had fought and died for a better life. The politicians felt obliged to give them what they demanded. But from approx the Thatcher era this has all moved into reverse, with all parties pandering to the rich once again. So obviously the poor getting relatively poorer, no longer accepting they may nonetheless be getting absolutely a bit richer, ae starting to rebel. Whats the point voting labour if they will not help the working class. They threw out Corbyn. They trashed him. People on here are still trashing him, wheras he was exactly what the labour party needed, needed anyway to come to terms with. Ditto, lots of random individual people have been interviewed and the chap talking about focus groups agreed, the dems have done nothing for the working class in the US. Trump isnt really a republican. He is more a Farage, an outsider who forced his way into mainstrem politics using the system. Its all down to Liberace, who long ago told Trump he should run for president. But its really because the US is sick of the established parties which both support the rich. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 6, 2024 7:03:43 GMT
 Hang your head in shame. |
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Post by jib on Nov 6, 2024 7:06:38 GMT
Pennsylvania for Trump.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 6, 2024 7:07:19 GMT
How the world lives with a fascist U.S. led by a criminal rapist lunatic, climate change denying, economic illiterate, Putin stooge is any one's guess but it's not going to be pretty. Starmer better get serious about closer relationships with the European union, we're going to need all the friends we can get in a truly fucked up situation. Successive US presidents have been trying to tell the UK and europe as a whole to get its own act together and stop relying on the US. After telling someone politely to please sort themselves out, it ends up at the point you push them off. |
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