25 May 2024 : LAB: 44% / CON: 22% / REF 14% / LDM 9%

[graham]

The Survation MRP survey has Reform winning 7 seats -

Clacton - Ashfield - Great Yarmouth - Norfolk NW - Mid- Leicestershire - South Suffolk - Exmouth & Exeter East.

Greens to win 1 seat.

Personally I am sceptical of those predictions.

[shevii]

Who's not paywalled?

www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-landslide-could-leave-tories-with-just-72-seats-mrp-poll-finds-bxfqk38xs

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

There you go shevii  !!

Labour landslide could leave Tories with just 72 seats, MRP poll finds
The Conservatives face an unprecedented battering with Sir Keir Starmer’s party set for a majority of 262, according to a detailed analysis by Survation


Need to know:

- New MRP polling by Survation for Best for Britain predicts the Conservatives could win just 72 seats.

- Labour is projected to win a landslide of 456 seats, with a majority of 262.

- The Liberal Democrats are set for 56 seats, Reform UK 7 and Greens 1.

- Conservatives are set to lose seats in every region while Labour gains everywhere.

- All seven of Reform UK’s gains were won by the Tories in 2019.

- Conservatives have no “safe” seats, with majorities of less than 2 per cent in 19 of 72 constituencies.

- Cabinet ministers Jeremy Hunt and Penny Mordaunt would lose seats.

- Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Dame Priti Patel would keep theirs.


“The survey of 22,000 people *, commissioned by Best for Britain, still shows the Conservatives as the main opposition party — as long as they do not slip further. It was conducted between May 31 and June 13, during which period Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK.

….

Although Survation’s figures suggest the SNP is ahead in 37 seats, down 11 on 2019, it also shows that the contest in Scotland is wide open, with Labour behind by less than 2.5 per cent on vote share in three seats and less than 5 per cent behind in a further four. That suggest Labour is set to win as many as 14 seats. The Conservatives are set to win one (down five) and the Lib Dems five (up three). These figures take account of the new boundaries.

On these figures, Labour is set to win a host of seats for the first time, such as Chipping Barnet, Hexham, Sutton Coldfield, and Tatton in Cheshire, which was held by the former chancellor George Osborne between 2001 and 2017. Constituencies in Southend, Bournemouth and the Isle of Wight have never had a Labour MP. Now the three could have two each.”


* NB while the article says 22,000 people, the Survation post on “X” says “42,269 interviews”

Attachments:

[laszlo4new]

Jun 15, 2024 18:11:34 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jun 15, 2024 16:22:23 GMT robbiealive said:

No one under 70 has heard of bolshevik or bolshi anymore. I was at a reunion recently and quizzed the young people re politics and such. They had never heard of Humphry Bogart. They were the grown-up children of friends of mine so obviously they were voting Labour. They would probably think Bolshevik was a cocktail. They asked me if I knew the difference between tinder and grindr.
As for mercian , or Archie Rice as I think of him, I'm surprised to find he can express himself so clearly even in the political idiom of the early Thatcher era. He may soon reach the present century. Unless he has a relapse.

I was being ironic, Mr Alive.

You are right, of course, that Bolshevik is an archaic term, although it is still beloved by Tories of a certain age when describing the loathed, lefty infested BBC.

Christine Hamilton, wife of Neil, was the last person I heard use the term in the BBC context, but I'm sure wherever Tory Party members gather, it still has currency. They still loathe the Corporation with a passion.

Even the fragrant Laura K, I expect.

To be fair, Bolshevik means majority (it comes from the breaking up of the Russian Social democratic Party, the minority was the Mensheviks at a particular conference).

But at the moment there is no movement, even if many (including myself) say that the are bolsheviks.

I know that the notes were not about it but just wanted to add the information (if needed).

[graham]

Exmouth & Exeter East looks an unlikely Reform win. The MRP methodology may have been thrown out there by a very strong vote for an Independent in East Devon in 2019.

[bardin1]

A little bit of cheer for us SNP people from the Survation poll







Survation’s figures bring good news to the SNP, which is projected to remain Scotland’s largest party, with 37 MPs (down 11 on 2019) compared with Labour’s 14 (up 13). The Conservatives are set to win one (down five) and the Lib Dems five (up three). These figures take account of the new boundaries. This outcome is far better for the SNP than recent polls indicate. This is not because of the MRP methodology, simply that Survation’s poll is the first by any company since February to show the SNP ahead of Labour in votes, by 37 per cent to 30 per cent.

[graham]

Jun 15, 2024 18:37:21 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

There you go shevii  !!

Labour landslide could leave Tories with just 72 seats, MRP poll finds
The Conservatives face an unprecedented battering with Sir Keir Starmer’s party set for a majority of 262, according to a detailed analysis by Survation

Need to know

- New MRP polling by Survation for Best for Britain predicts the Conservatives could win just 72 seats.

- Labour is projected to win a landslide of 456 seats, with a majority of 262.

- The Liberal Democrats are set for 56 seats, Reform UK 7 and Greens 1.

- Conservatives are set to lose seats in every region while Labour gains everywhere.

- All seven of Reform UK’s gains were won by the Tories in 2019.

- Conservatives have no “safe” seats, with majorities of less than 2 per cent in 19 of 72 constituencies.

- Cabinet ministers Jeremy Hunt and Penny Mordaunt would lose seats.

- Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman, Liz Truss and Dame Priti Patel would keep theirs.


The survey of 22,000 people, commissioned by Best for Britain, still shows the Conservatives as the main opposition party — as long as they do not slip further. It was conducted between May 31 and June 13, during which period Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK.

….

Although Survation’s figures suggest the SNP is ahead in 37 seats, down 11 on 2019, it also shows that the contest in Scotland is wide open, with Labour behind by less than 2.5 per cent on vote share in three seats and less than 5 per cent behind in a further four. That suggest Labour is set to win as many as 14 seats. The Conservatives are set to win one (down five) and the Lib Dems five (up three). These figures take account of the new boundaries.

On these figures, Labour is set to win a host of seats for the first time, such as Chipping Barnet, Hexham, Sutton Coldfield, and Tatton in Cheshire, which was held by the former chancellor George Osborne between 2001 and 2017. Constituencies in Southend, Bournemouth and the Isle of Wight have never had a Labour MP. Now the three could have two each.

Those Scotland figures seem highly doubtful. The SNP will perform far less well than implied there.

[pjw1961]

Jun 15, 2024 18:33:15 GMT graham said:

The Survation MRP survey has Reform winning 7 seats -

Clacton - Ashfield - Great Yarmouth - Norfolk NW - Mid- Leicestershire - South Suffolk - Exmouth & Exeter East.

Greens to win 1 seat.

Personally I am sceptical of those predictions.

Agreed - Clacton and Ashfield are possibilities, I don't fancy the rest at all. 

[pjw1961]

Jun 15, 2024 18:45:39 GMT bardin1 said:

A little bit of cheer for us SNP people from the Survation poll







Survation’s figures bring good news to the SNP, which is projected to remain Scotland’s largest party, with 37 MPs (down 11 on 2019) compared with Labour’s 14 (up 13). The Conservatives are set to win one (down five) and the Lib Dems five (up three). These figures take account of the new boundaries. This outcome is far better for the SNP than recent polls indicate. This is not because of the MRP methodology, simply that Survation’s poll is the first by any company since February to show the SNP ahead of Labour in votes, by 37 per cent to 30 per cent.

But what was the Scottish sample size and therefore margin of error? You need a Scotland only poll to make that sort of prediction reliable. 

[bardin1]

Jun 15, 2024 18:48:45 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jun 15, 2024 18:45:39 GMT bardin1 said:

A little bit of cheer for us SNP people from the Survation poll







Survation’s figures bring good news to the SNP, which is projected to remain Scotland’s largest party, with 37 MPs (down 11 on 2019) compared with Labour’s 14 (up 13). The Conservatives are set to win one (down five) and the Lib Dems five (up three). These figures take account of the new boundaries. This outcome is far better for the SNP than recent polls indicate. This is not because of the MRP methodology, simply that Survation’s poll is the first by any company since February to show the SNP ahead of Labour in votes, by 37 per cent to 30 per cent.

But what was the Scottish sample size and therefore margin of error? You need a Scotland only poll to make that sort of prediction reliable. 

I'm just quoting the article  - not seen the detail


Edit: Just noticed in the text the following:

The survey of 22,000 people, commissioned by Best for Britain, still shows the Conservatives as the main opposition party — as long as they do not slip further. It was conducted between May 31 and June 13, during which period Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK.



So a reasonably large Scottish sample I would assume?   

[graham]

Norstat - Scotland poll-

Lab 34 SNP 30 - Con 14 LD 9 Ref 7 Grn 4 Alba 2

[crossbat11]

Jun 15, 2024 18:48:45 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jun 15, 2024 18:45:39 GMT bardin1 said:

A little bit of cheer for us SNP people from the Survation poll







Survation’s figures bring good news to the SNP, which is projected to remain Scotland’s largest party, with 37 MPs (down 11 on 2019) compared with Labour’s 14 (up 13). The Conservatives are set to win one (down five) and the Lib Dems five (up three). These figures take account of the new boundaries. This outcome is far better for the SNP than recent polls indicate. This is not because of the MRP methodology, simply that Survation’s poll is the first by any company since February to show the SNP ahead of Labour in votes, by 37 per cent to 30 per cent.

But what was the Scottish sample size and therefore margin of error? You need a Scotland only poll to make that sort of prediction reliable. 

Didn't our old mentor, Anthony Wells, often berate those of us who used poll crossbreaks because the sample sizes were below statistical validity thresholds?

[bardin1]

Jun 15, 2024 18:57:37 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jun 15, 2024 18:48:45 GMT pjw1961 said:

But what was the Scottish sample size and therefore margin of error? You need a Scotland only poll to make that sort of prediction reliable. 

Didn't our old mentor, Anthony Wells, often berate those of us who used poll crossbreaks because the sample sizes were below statistical validity thresholds?

It was a 22,000 poll so if evenly distributed across the UK would be a reasonable sample size - but note the other poll Graham has unearthed for a contrary stat, though Norstat's previous poll was LAB 34 SNP 29 CON 16

[hireton]

Survation results here;

www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/

[nickpoole]

Guardian seems to have Opinium poll Lab on 40%

[crossbat11]

laszlo4new

I think the people using the term are doing so in a derogatory way as another word for communist.

They wouldn't have anywhere near your level of erudition on the historical origin or literal meaning of these terms.

[hireton]

"Didn't our old mentor, Anthony Wells, often berate those of us who used poll crossbreaks because the sample sizes were below statistical validity thresholds? "

And also not to discount polls vecause they didn't confirm our own prejudices?

[nickpoole]

www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/15/tories-and-labour-on-course-for-lowest-share-of-the-vote-since-1945

Voila

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

More polling!! (From the Telegraph…)


Net zero policies have lost public support over past two years, poll reveals
Support for measures such as low-traffic neighbourhoods and subsidies for electric vehicles has dropped

“Ipsos polled 4,201 people in the UK aged 16 and over in April on their attitudes towards net zero. This was on behalf of the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations - an organisation bringing together the universities of Bath, Cardiff, East Anglia, Manchester and York and the charity Climate Outreach.

The poll found that support for eight different net zero policies has all fallen since 2022.

In 2022, 67 per cent of people supported frequent flyer levies, but this had dropped to 62 per cent in 2024.

Support for changing product pricing to reflect how environmentally friendly products are fell from 60 per cent to 56 per cent.

In 2022, “ensuring access to sustainable pension funds” was supported by 55 per cent of people, but this fell to 47 per cent this year.

“Increasing vegetarian/vegan options in public food provisioning” dropped from 54 per cent to 46 per cent, and support for creating LTNs fell from 50 per cent to 43 per cent.

Support for phasing out the sale of gas and coal boilers declined from 49 per cent to 45 per cent, and backing for higher taxes on red meat and dairy products dropped from 48 per cent to 42 per cent.

Finally, support for electric vehicle subsidies reduced from 45 per cent in 2022 to 39 per cent in 2024.


However, for all the policies more people continued to support them than opposed them, except electric vehicle subsidies, which in 2024 was opposed by 41 per cent of people.

While most people - 77 per cent - are worried by climate change, only 15 per cent are “extremely worried”.

Twenty-two per cent said they are “very worried” and 40 per cent “fairly worried”.

Eighteen per cent said they are “not very worried” and 4 per cent said they are “not at all worried”. The 77 per cent who said they are to some extent worried was 5 percentage points lower than when people were asked in October 2022.

Fifty-two per cent of people said they prefer political parties that take “strong action” against climate change, compared to 26 per cent who preferred parties wanting to “slow down” action.

….

“Ipsos’ long-term trends show spikes related to extreme weather events, but also around political commitments to the environment. The reversal of climate commitments, by both the Conservative and Labour parties over the last year, may have contributed to this change in the public mood.

“Our extensive research into this issue shows that behaviour change will predominantly be driven by co-benefits. People are likely to support climate policies when it is evident that they can also help save them money, increase choice and improve local environments.””

[graham]

At the same stage of the 2017 campaign the polls recorded Tory leads in the range of 9% - 13% . that was still a good lead but the gap had already closed a fair bit.

[Old Southendian]

Jun 15, 2024 19:00:57 GMT hireton said:

Survation results here;

www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/

Unbelievable.  That has Mark Francois losing in Rayleigh and Wickford.  Better make sure my dad gets out to vote - to be fair, I'm sure he will, whatever I say.  I wish I were registered there still, and could help the cause of booting him out, I think my vote is wasted where I am now.

[hireton]

bardin1

The Survation poll was based on 42,000 online interviews

x.com/Survation/status/1802049409984745504?s=19

[crossbat11]

Jun 15, 2024 19:02:54 GMT hireton said:

"Didn't our old mentor, Anthony Wells, often berate those of us who used poll crossbreaks because the sample sizes were below statistical validity thresholds? "

And also not to discount polls vecause they didn't confirm our own prejudices?

Two entirely different concepts. One relates to the validity of polling data, the other to partisanship.

You and I are two of the very rare posters on this forum who always eschew the latter of these mistakes. We rarely make the first either.

🤔😀

[bardin1]

Jun 15, 2024 19:07:40 GMT hireton said:

bardin1

The Survation poll was based on 42,000 online interviews

x.com/Survation/status/1802049409984745504?s=19

Yes, I saw that, but the article cited 22,000. Possibly a misprint. 

[James E]

Opinium

Lab 40% (-2)
Con 23% (-1)
LD 12% (+2)
Ref 14% (+2)
Green 7% ( 0)

My prediction of 39/22/12/15 wasn't too bad !


[ By my preferred comparison to the pre-election averages for each party by pollster, this one is Lab -1.5, Con -3, LD +2, Ref +3. Very much the norm at the moment]

[mercian]

Jun 15, 2024 19:03:51 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

“Our extensive research into this issue shows that behaviour change will predominantly be driven by co-benefits. People are likely to support climate policies when it is evident that they can also help save them money, increase choice and improve local environments.””

Well fancy that. I could have told them that without 'extensive research'. My source is the University of the Bleeding Obvious.

[graham]

The Survation MRP survey has the following findings for Didcot & Wantage -

Lab 29.5%
LD 28.4%
Con 27.8%

I wonder how tactical voting will work out there!

[shevii]

Jun 15, 2024 19:00:57 GMT hireton said:

Survation results here;

www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/

Can't see any tables yet from that link?  Another interesting snippet though is that they include a "probability based prediction" which gives Reform 12 seats and Greens 3 seats and pushes Labour down a tiny bit and Tories up a tiny bit.

[pjw1961]

Jun 15, 2024 19:21:23 GMT shevii said:

Jun 15, 2024 19:00:57 GMT hireton said:

Survation results here;

www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/

Can't see any tables yet from that link?  Another interesting snippet though is that they include a "probability based prediction" which gives Reform 12 seats and Greens 3 seats and pushes Labour down a tiny bit and Tories up a tiny bit.

"Improbability based" by the sound of it. Reform won't win 12 seats. It is still by no means certain they will win any. 

[patrickbrian]

JamesE

Is your prediction of the polls converging as the election approaches proving right? It seems to me it is....