c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 15, 2024 16:46:37 GMT
I think Labour has plans for tax rises that have been omitted from the campaign and manifesto, hence the very precise language that is being used. CGT reform, Council Tax reform, Inheritance Tax are obvious ones - but I think we may get entirely new taxes that have never been mentioned. Oh goody! That's something to look forward to. as long as there aren’t any taxes on polling (or leafleting)
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 15, 2024 16:54:47 GMT
Oh goody! That's something to look forward to. as long as there aren’t any taxes on polling (or leafleting) Judging by the response to my campaign comment I think a majority on here would be in favour of punitive taxation on difficult to use letter boxes. Its got my vote.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 15, 2024 17:02:05 GMT
“With just three weeks to go until election day on July 4, Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, appears to have written off the Conservatives. A heatmap of the campaign trail, which will be updated until election day, reveals that, as of Friday, Rishi Sunak, Sir Keir Starmer, Sir Ed Davey, Richard Tice and Mr Farage had visited 82 constituencies between them.” Of those, 69 are seats the Tories won in 2019, six are Labour, four are SNP and one is Green. These tallies are excluding public appearances for manifesto launches, TV debates and D-Day memorial services. Mr Farage has spent far less time on the campaign trail than his peers, instead banking on strong televised debate performances to boost his party’s popularity – a strategy that appears to be working. He has now challenged the Labour leader to a head-to-head debate. … With the Reform manifesto launch pencilled in for Monday in the Welsh valley Labour heartlands, all evidence suggests Mr Farage has got Sir Keir in his sights. After all, the latest YouGov MRP forecasts Reform winning no seats, but coming second in 27, every time behind the Labour candidate. In order to be a force to be reckoned with in Westminster, Labour’s candidates will be the ones to beat. Telegraph Attachments:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2024 17:08:24 GMT
“This election is most certainly not about age,” Jill Biden said. “Joe and that other guy are essentially the same age. Let’s not be fooled, Joe isn’t one of the most effective presidents of our lives in spite of his age, but because of it.”
Well said. A lifetime of service and experience.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 15, 2024 17:09:18 GMT
Sunak enlists creators of New Labour attack ads to target Starmer Tories hire masterminds who championed ‘demon eyes’ poster of Tony Blair in 1997
“The Telegraph has learnt that the Conservative Party has tapped advertising veterans David Kershaw, Bill Muirhead and Jeremy Sinclair to oversee a wave of so-called “negative campaigning” against the Labour Party.
The trio, dubbed the “three amigos”, have already produced one advert for the Conservatives featuring an image of a red piggy bank accompanied by the words: “If you think Labour will win, start saving…”
They are expected to produce more ads targeting Labour on the economy, though sources insisted the party would not take aim at Reform, despite Nigel Farage’s party overtaking the Tories in a recent opinion poll.
…
They also produced the “pocket Milliband” campaign in 2015 and supported David Cameron’s drive to keep the UK in the EU ahead of the Brexit vote.
…
The Tories are reported to have spent around £450,000 on attack ads so far – the majority of their total spend of around half a million pounds.
The ads have largely targeted Sir Keir Starmer, focusing on claims that the Labour leader is plotting a £2,000 tax raid.”
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 15, 2024 17:13:51 GMT
as long as there aren’t any taxes on polling (or leafleting) Judging by the response to my campaign comment I think a majority on here would be in favour of punitive taxation on difficult to use letter boxes. Its got my vote. I'll raise a glass, pj, in my perpetually grazed knuckle left hand, for any campaign you lead to outlaw high resistant, bristle infested, low in the door letter box flaps. And anything you can do too to force parties to produce card stiff and non foldable leaflets. 😁👍🤞
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 15, 2024 17:19:24 GMT
The following is the outgoing cabinet, less peers (Cameron, True) and those who are standing down as MPs at the election (Gove, Jack, Heaton-Harris. if I have accidentally included any others, let me know). So the question is how many will lose their seats? Could we get a new record for the number of defeated cabinet ministers? I'll give my guess later on when I've done some digging.
Cabinet ministers Rishi Sunak - MP for Richmond (Yorks) Prime Minister Oliver Dowden - MP for Hertsmere Deputy Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt - MP for South West Surrey Chancellor of the Exchequer James Cleverly - MP for Braintree Secretary of State for the Home Department Grant Shapps - MP for Welwyn Hatfield Secretary of State for Defence Ministry of Defence Alex Chalk - MP for Cheltenham Secretary of State for Justice Michelle Donelan - MP for Chippenham Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology Victoria Atkins - MP for Louth and Horncastle Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Steve Barclay - MP for North East Cambridgeshire Penny Mordaunt - MP for Portsmouth North Leader of the House of Commons Kemi Badenoch - MP for Saffron Walden Secretary of State for Business and Trade Claire Coutinho - MP for East Surrey Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Mel Stride - MP for Central Devon Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Gillian Keegan - MP for Chichester Secretary of State for Education Mark Harper - MP for Forest of Dean Secretary of State for Transport Lucy Frazer - MP for South East Cambridgeshire Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport Richard Holden - MP for North West Durham Minister without Portfolio David Davies - MP for Monmouth Secretary of State for Wales
Ministers who also attend Cabinet Simon Hart - MP for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Government Chief Whip Laura Trott - MP for Sevenoaks Chief Secretary to the Treasury Victoria Prentis - MP for Banbury Attorney General for England and Wales John Glen - MP for Salisbury Minister for the Cabinet Office Esther McVey - MP for Tatton Minister of State without Portfolio Tom Tugendhat - MP for Tonbridge and Malling Minister of State for Security Andrew Mitchell - MP for Sutton Coldfield Deputy Foreign Secretary Johnny Mercer - MP for Plymouth Moor View Minister of State for Veterans' Affairs Michael Tomlinson - MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole Minister of State for Countering Illegal Migration
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 15, 2024 17:22:48 GMT
If it transpires that the lib dems end up as the official opposition it's evident that it's Ed Davey's intent to hold the Labour government to account from a more progressive social democratic position.
Personally having the two main parties in parliament occupying centre left positions is to everyone's advantage. Of course we're not hindered by having lumbered ourselves with the " make Brexit work " load of old cobblers.
"The Lib Dems will push a Labour government to adopt more radical policies on tax, welfare and bringing Britain closer to the EU, Ed Davey has said, amid growing expectations that his party is on course for a far bigger role in the next parliament.
In an interview with the Observer, the Lib Dem leader said that his party’s focus remained squarely on ousting Tory MPs via a tactical voting drive that he claimed could be the most successful ever seen.
However, with the Lib Dems rising in the polls and a cautious Labour party maintaining a double-digit lead, he said his party would use the next parliament to continue to fight for higher capital gains tax to pay for the NHS, a new youth mobility deal with Europe and an end to the two-child benefits limit – all of which Keir Starmer has rejected.
“We are a progressive, liberal party and we believe in investment in public services,” Davey said. “We believe in making taxes fairer, and we believe in really transformative environmental action. I think people who want to see that level of change in our country can vote Liberal Democrat knowing that we’ll have lots of Lib Dem MPs in the next parliament championing that.
“Frankly, if you want the change, I think we’re offering the most ambitious change. I even have Labour people saying that they’re really Labour people, but they hope we get lots of Liberal Democrat MPs in because they can hold the Labour party to account.”
I particularly like the idea of the mobility deal with Europe effectively restoring many of the stolen freedoms for those under 35, Labour offer nothing comparable and have rejected a similar scheme suggested by the European union.
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 15, 2024 17:23:37 GMT
The following is the outgoing cabinet, less peers (Cameron, True) and those who are standing down as MPs at the election (Gove, Jack, Heaton-Harris. if I have accidentally included any others, let me know). So the question is how many will lose their seats? Could we get a new record for the number of defeated cabinet ministers? I'll give my guess later on when I've done some digging. Cabinet ministers Rishi Sunak - MP for Richmond (Yorks) Prime Minister Oliver Dowden - MP for Hertsmere Deputy Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt - MP for South West Surrey Chancellor of the Exchequer James Cleverly - MP for Braintree Secretary of State for the Home Department Grant Shapps - MP for Welwyn Hatfield Secretary of State for Defence Ministry of Defence Alex Chalk - MP for Cheltenham Secretary of State for Justice Michelle Donelan - MP for Chippenham Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology Victoria Atkins - MP for Louth and Horncastle Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Steve Barclay - MP for North East Cambridgeshire Penny Mordaunt - MP for Portsmouth North Leader of the House of Commons Kemi Badenoch - MP for Saffron Walden Secretary of State for Business and Trade Claire Coutinho - MP for East Surrey Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Mel Stride - MP for Central Devon Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Gillian Keegan - MP for Chichester Secretary of State for Education Mark Harper - MP for Forest of Dean Secretary of State for Transport Lucy Frazer - MP for South East Cambridgeshire Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport Richard Holden - MP for North West Durham Minister without Portfolio David Davies - MP for Monmouth Secretary of State for Wales Ministers who also attend Cabinet Simon Hart - MP for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Government Chief Whip Laura Trott - MP for Sevenoaks Chief Secretary to the Treasury Victoria Prentis - MP for Banbury Attorney General for England and Wales John Glen - MP for Salisbury Minister for the Cabinet Office Esther McVey - MP for Tatton Minister of State without Portfolio Tom Tugendhat - MP for Tonbridge and Malling Minister of State for Security Andrew Mitchell - MP for Sutton Coldfield Deputy Foreign Secretary Johnny Mercer - MP for Plymouth Moor View Minister of State for Veterans' Affairs Michael Tomlinson - MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole Minister of State for Countering Illegal Migration Do you work for the BBC? You have missed out the secretary of state for North Britain
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 15, 2024 17:37:30 GMT
Guardian Seems the tories/Mail/Telegraph are not being honest shocker 'The number of children attending private schools in England has risen, new figures show, despite claims that families are being priced out by Labour’s plan to add VAT to school fees. Local authoritis seem to be sending quite a few kids to private schools nowadays, the ones who for one reason or another cannot cope in state schools. There is a whole industry of private schools for the disabled...fees paid by councils and the NHS. The logic seems to be its cheaper than running their own schools, or maybe they are ideologically forbidden from doing so. Anyone have official statistics on how many?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 15, 2024 17:41:46 GMT
I think the state sector could cope with one class in three getting one extra pupil. It doesnt work like that. You create extra classes when you reach maximum size. Then you need a new teacher and a new classroom. so case by case its a very quantum leap process, but overall it will average out. Another problem though, as with the NHS, is that its all very well saying hire extra teachers if thats what is needed, but they do not exist. Nor is it likely all the teachers in private schools would automatically transfer to state ones because a whole lot of them are already 'refugees' from the state sector which tends to pay better but have worse working conditions. The biggest reason private schools will continue is because some state school are awful, and in particular for the critical GCSE years, parents take a view they will pay for a better education for that period. And then as I said, I dont know what proportion of kids in private schools are already state funded.
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Post by mercian on Jun 15, 2024 17:51:31 GMT
Well, that's the Bolshevik Broadcasting Company for you. Mercy Man was right all along. No one under 70 has heard of bolshevik or bolshi anymore. I was at a reunion recently and quizzed the young people re politics and such. They had never heard of Humphry Bogart. They were the grown-up children of friends of mine so obviously they were voting Labour. They would probably think Bolshevik was a cocktail. They asked me if I knew the difference between tinder and grindr. As for mercian , or Archie Rice as I think of him, I'm surprised to find he can express himself so clearly even in the political idiom of the early Thatcher era. He may soon reach the present century. Unless he has a relapse. Bally poor show old bean. Pip-pip!
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jun 15, 2024 17:51:39 GMT
pjw1961 "I see that Johnny Mercer has said today that the Tory campaign had been “up and down”. Can anyone identify what the "up" part was? I'm at a loss to think of anything." This probably means that Mercer has wind that a Tory shagging scandal is going to break in the Sunday red tops. They might actually go up in the polls should such a scandal emerge. There is a latent shaggers vote amongst the British electorate that politicians tend to ignore. At their peril too, I might add. This isn't France don't you know where Francois Hollande's old 'extra-currilcular' scooter recently sold at auction for €20,000. www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/27/francois-hollande-love-scooter-fetches-over-20000-at-auction
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 15, 2024 17:53:43 GMT
graham "Also managed to ignore the good stuff Blair did. Ho hum." "A bit like saying 'the Fuhrer built some really good Autobahns'. View Attachment Hitler improved housing, education, employment, a car for everyone, abolished hunting, improved training of doctors. Plus the roads of course. Redistributive tax policy favouring the poor. I think he ran up national debt a lot. All very reminiscent of demands nowadays. Oh, and i forgot boosting defence spending and getting tough with Russia?
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 15, 2024 17:59:24 GMT
Yes, I always had a sneaking admiration for the way the French viewed the marital infidelities of their politicians. Mistresses seem de rigueur. I think Mitterand's attended his state funeral.
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Post by Old Southendian on Jun 15, 2024 17:59:54 GMT
First new poll of the evening, not sure how this format will come out....
Savanta UK @savanta_UK 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @telegraph
📈25pt Labour lead
📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019
🌹Lab 46 (+2) 🌳Con 21 (-4) ➡️Reform 13 (+3) 🔶LD 11 (+2) 🌍Green 5 (+1) 🎗️SNP 2 (-1) ⬜️Other 3 (-1)
2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 15, 2024 18:02:52 GMT
First new poll of the evening, not sure how this format will come out.... Savanta UK @savanta_UK 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @telegraph 📈25pt Labour lead 📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019 🌹Lab 46 (+2) 🌳Con 21 (-4) ➡️Reform 13 (+3) 🔶LD 11 (+2) 🌍Green 5 (+1) 🎗️SNP 2 (-1) ⬜️Other 3 (-1) 2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June Sleep more easily, pjw1961! For now, anyway Opinium coming soon. 😭🤣
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patrickbrian
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These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
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Post by patrickbrian on Jun 15, 2024 18:08:05 GMT
On that Sevanta poll, EC give con 30 seats...... I don't find that believable myself, but Hey!
Refuk 2 though... Uggh!
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 15, 2024 18:11:34 GMT
Well, that's the Bolshevik Broadcasting Company for you. Mercy Man was right all along. No one under 70 has heard of bolshevik or bolshi anymore. I was at a reunion recently and quizzed the young people re politics and such. They had never heard of Humphry Bogart. They were the grown-up children of friends of mine so obviously they were voting Labour. They would probably think Bolshevik was a cocktail. They asked me if I knew the difference between tinder and grindr. As for mercian , or Archie Rice as I think of him, I'm surprised to find he can express himself so clearly even in the political idiom of the early Thatcher era. He may soon reach the present century. Unless he has a relapse. I was being ironic, Mr Alive. You are right, of course, that Bolshevik is an archaic term, although it is still beloved by Tories of a certain age when describing the loathed, lefty infested BBC. Christine Hamilton, wife of Neil, was the last person I heard use the term in the BBC context, but I'm sure wherever Tory Party members gather, it still has currency. They still loathe the Corporation with a passion. Even the fragrant Laura K, I expect.
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Post by nickpoole on Jun 15, 2024 18:11:58 GMT
On that Sevanta poll, EC give con 30 seats...... I don't find that believable myself, but Hey! Refuk 2 though... Uggh! 30 too many, you think?
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Post by nickpoole on Jun 15, 2024 18:14:01 GMT
First new poll of the evening, not sure how this format will come out.... Savanta UK @savanta_UK 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @telegraph 📈25pt Labour lead 📉Lowest Con vote share since May 2019 🌹Lab 46 (+2) 🌳Con 21 (-4) ➡️Reform 13 (+3) 🔶LD 11 (+2) 🌍Green 5 (+1) 🎗️SNP 2 (-1) ⬜️Other 3 (-1) 2,045 UK adults, 12-14 June Lab certainly not going backwards according to that poll.
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Post by jib on Jun 15, 2024 18:19:03 GMT
The following is the outgoing cabinet, less peers (Cameron, True) and those who are standing down as MPs at the election (Gove, Jack, Heaton-Harris. if I have accidentally included any others, let me know). So the question is how many will lose their seats? Could we get a new record for the number of defeated cabinet ministers? I'll give my guess later on when I've done some digging. Cabinet ministers Rishi Sunak - MP for Richmond (Yorks) Prime Minister Oliver Dowden - MP for Hertsmere Deputy Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt - MP for South West Surrey Chancellor of the Exchequer James Cleverly - MP for Braintree Secretary of State for the Home Department Grant Shapps - MP for Welwyn Hatfield Secretary of State for Defence Ministry of Defence Alex Chalk - MP for Cheltenham Secretary of State for Justice Michelle Donelan - MP for Chippenham Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology Victoria Atkins - MP for Louth and Horncastle Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Steve Barclay - MP for North East Cambridgeshire Penny Mordaunt - MP for Portsmouth North Leader of the House of Commons Kemi Badenoch - MP for Saffron Walden Secretary of State for Business and Trade Claire Coutinho - MP for East Surrey Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Mel Stride - MP for Central Devon Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Gillian Keegan - MP for Chichester Secretary of State for Education Mark Harper - MP for Forest of Dean Secretary of State for Transport Lucy Frazer - MP for South East Cambridgeshire Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport Richard Holden - MP for North West Durham Minister without Portfolio David Davies - MP for Monmouth Secretary of State for Wales Ministers who also attend Cabinet Simon Hart - MP for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Government Chief Whip Laura Trott - MP for Sevenoaks Chief Secretary to the Treasury Victoria Prentis - MP for Banbury Attorney General for England and Wales John Glen - MP for Salisbury Minister for the Cabinet Office Esther McVey - MP for Tatton Minister of State without Portfolio Tom Tugendhat - MP for Tonbridge and Malling Minister of State for Security Andrew Mitchell - MP for Sutton Coldfield Deputy Foreign Secretary Johnny Mercer - MP for Plymouth Moor View Minister of State for Veterans' Affairs Michael Tomlinson - MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole Minister of State for Countering Illegal Migration Simon Hart has been displaced into Sir Gaerfyrddin - Carmarthenshire. He'll do well to get 3rd I'd think.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 15, 2024 18:19:25 GMT
Well, that's the Bolshevik Broadcasting Company for you. Mercy Man was right all along. No one under 70 has heard of bolshevik or bolshi anymore. I was at a reunion recently and quizzed the young people re politics and such. They had never heard of Humphry Bogart. They were the grown-up children of friends of mine so obviously they were voting Labour. They would probably think Bolshevik was a cocktail. They asked me if I knew the difference between tinder and grindr. As I have posted a few times, the current campaign to ban schoolkids for owning smartphones seems to be all about trying to stop them sending each other naked pictures. Making an utter nonsense of the law about child pornography. People seemed surprised when recently an MP of the younger persuasion was using grindr. I recently saw someone wearing a T shirt emblazoned 'Jack Jones'. I wondered why they were supporting the leader of the TUC.
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Post by hireton on Jun 15, 2024 18:22:02 GMT
New Survation MRP poll for the Times:
"New @survation MRP poll
Labour landslide could leave Tories with just 72 seats, MRP poll finds
The Conservatives face an unprecedented battering with Sir Keir Starmer’s party set for a majority of 262, according to a detailed analysis by Survation
thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…"
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 15, 2024 18:23:06 GMT
The following is the outgoing cabinet, less peers (Cameron, True) and those who are standing down as MPs at the election (Gove, Jack, Heaton-Harris. if I have accidentally included any others, let me know). So the question is how many will lose their seats? Could we get a new record for the number of defeated cabinet ministers? I'll give my guess later on when I've done some digging. Do you work for the BBC? You have missed out the secretary of state for North Britain He is retiring, so we are denied the pleasure of seeing him defeated.
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Post by James E on Jun 15, 2024 18:24:08 GMT
Savanta ends a run of 9 polls where Labour were below their pre-election average. In this one, they are up by 2.5 points.
Lab 46% (+2.5) Con 21% (-5.5) Ref 13% (+3.5) LD 11% (+1)
Comparisons to averages for Savanta from the first 20 weeks of 2024.
Adding this one in with the previous nine from regular pollsters, Labour are down by 2 points as an overall average, with 7 of the last 10 showing falls of between 1 and 3.5 points.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 15, 2024 18:25:53 GMT
The following is the outgoing cabinet, less peers (Cameron, True) and those who are standing down as MPs at the election (Gove, Jack, Heaton-Harris. if I have accidentally included any others, let me know). So the question is how many will lose their seats? Could we get a new record for the number of defeated cabinet ministers? I'll give my guess later on when I've done some digging. Simon Hart has been displaced into Sir Gaerfyrddin - Carmarthenshire. He'll do well to get 3rd I'd think. And Richard Holden has done a bunk to Basildon and Billericay - a rather larger distance!
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Post by shevii on Jun 15, 2024 18:27:08 GMT
Still- there are leaders worse off than Sunak: www.ft.com/content/077a3fec-952b-4834-9d28-04a0333f5c50"The calculations are astonishing. The far-right bloc (RN and the smaller Reconquête) are in the lead in 362 seats. The left, which crucially has formed a “popular front” spanning anti-capitalist radicals and social democrats, is ahead in 211. Macron’s centrist bloc is ahead in only three (all of them seats for French people abroad) and the centre-right in one, the wealthy 16th arrondissement in Paris. The second round would come down to a fight between two camps: left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41, and LR in three, Tabard found."
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 15, 2024 18:28:47 GMT
Do you work for the BBC? You have missed out the secretary of state for North Britain He is retiring, so we are denied the pleasure of seeing him defeated. My apologies - I didn't notice him (or read your preceding paragraph properly) Mind you, I haven't noticed Jack for the last four years either
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Post by shevii on Jun 15, 2024 18:29:43 GMT
New Survation MRP poll for the Times: "New @survation MRP poll Labour landslide could leave Tories with just 72 seats, MRP poll finds The Conservatives face an unprecedented battering with Sir Keir Starmer’s party set for a majority of 262, according to a detailed analysis by Survation thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…" Not sure how reliable this is: Ryan @breakingryan1 · 27s SURVATION MRP poll predicts Reform UK making 7 gains: - Ashfield - Clacton - Exmouth and Exeter East - Great Yarmouth - Mid Leicestershire - North West Norfolk - South Suffolk
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