c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 15, 2024 13:28:11 GMT
Guardian Seems the tories/Mail/Telegraph are not being honest shocker 'The number of children attending private schools in England has risen, new figures show, despite claims that families are being priced out by Labour’s plan to add VAT to school fees. The Independent Schools Council (ISC) said last month that pupil numbers had fallen – a sign, they said, that schools were already starting to see “the impact of VAT looming on the horizon”. But official Department for Education (DfE) data published last week shows that as of this January, the number of pupils in independent schools in England was 593,486, up from 591,954 the year before and an increase of 24,150 on 2020/21. The ISC has also blamed two recent private school closures on Labour’s policy. However, the official school census data shows that 12 new independent schools opened in the last year, with the total rising from 2,409 to 2,421' I have a suspicion that as the boomer property wealth cascades through, there may be more people in a position to send their offspring private? |
|
|
|
Post by Old Southendian on Jun 15, 2024 13:30:49 GMT
I'm a little surprised that labour isn't saying this, but... Re-VAT on private schools. One of the tory arguments is that middle class families that go without holidays etc. to send their kids to private schools will be priced out and that therefore, the schools in the state sector will be flooded with such pupils. Assuming that, technically, the tory argument is correct, let's do the maths. Currently, approximately 6.5% of pupils attend private schools. Assuming that as many as 1 in 5 of all pupils currently attending private schools end up in the state sector as a result of this policy, that equates to 1.3% of all pupils in the UK. Assuming an average class sze of 30 in the state sector. That equates to one extra pupil in every third class. The school population is, if anything, currently falling. I think the state sector could cope with one class in three getting one extra pupil.
More or Less had a piece on school pupil numbers this week. Along with your argument, which is quite correct, it turns out that pupil numbers are likely to be on the way down in years to come as a birth bulge is now already making its way through senior schools. The number of pupils being 'ejected' from public schools (if any) is small compared to the natural rise and fall in birth patterns that schools already have to cope with. At least that was their argument, don't take it from me.
When people complain about BBC impartiality (or lack of it), then there are some honourable exceptions.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 15, 2024 13:31:20 GMT
I see that Johnny Mercer has said today that the Tory campaign had been “up and down”. Can anyone identify what the "up" part was? I'm at a loss to think of anything. I think the end of the campaign will be an “up” part, PJ. (Well for us anyway…) |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Jun 15, 2024 13:32:06 GMT
"Incidentally, if anyone thinks leafletting is a harm free activity, I have taken the skin off the knuckles of my right hand wrestling with the man-traps some people choose to have as letterboxes these days. Some seemed designed to actively prevent any mail being delivered." - Lol I can concur with this having done a lot of leafletting in the past and regularly still for parish council stuff. Some have springs like a trap and have a brush inside that it's barely possible to get something through, especially paper. Then there are the ones at almost ground level or some houses where initially you can't even find a letterbox at all. I think the inventor of the ground-level letterbox would be one of the few cases where my otherwise steadfast opposition to capital punishment might waver slightly. I've found a hockey glove pretty good protection from the mantraps (the fingerless kind that outfield players wear on their top hand), just have to watch the bristle-mouths don't eat it 🙂 |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jun 15, 2024 13:35:17 GMT
Given that we don't have many unapologetic brexitoids left here, or indeed in the real world, you might have thought that the ones we did have might have been aware that Thatcher was the biggest fan of the single market and the expansion of the European union . Almost as if they haven't a fucking clue what they're talking about. If that's a reference to Danny attacking my post about Conservative achievements, it's because he misunderstood what I wrote. I said that most of them came under Mrs Thatcher and then gave a list that included Brexit. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2024 13:42:23 GMT
I see that Johnny Mercer has said today that the Tory campaign had been “up and down”. Can anyone identify what the "up" part was? I'm at a loss to think of anything. When ole Rishi got up to pop out in the rain. Then down… |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jun 15, 2024 13:56:36 GMT
Just read Alan Bates has accepted bauble. Oh dear. The British Establishment's spider's web draws in another unwitting member. A thorn in the side now swallowed whole. Gulp. Swallow. He's gone. I heard him interviewed on the radio. He said he had been offered an honour last year but turned it down until Paula wotsername handed hers back. She now has, and he said he hoped the knighthood would help get publicity for his continued fight to get compensation for the victims. Hardly swallowed. Great man. |
|
|
|
Post by James E on Jun 15, 2024 14:08:56 GMT
pjw1961 I'd accept that with a best result since 2010 of 9.5% in Braintree in 2019 it wouldn't be particularly high in our target lists. If Labour can move from under 20% to displace not so Cleverly who received nearly 70% of the vote share in 2019 the very best of luck. Hopefully you'll be aided and abetted by the frog faced hate gimp targeting the hard of thinking , it's an area where tactical voting would also have to be very effective. I wouldn't call Braintree a Labour target in any normal circumstances, but it is not quite so hopeless for Labour as 2019 suggests. The area is very Brexity and this maximised the Tory vote in 2019 (in comparison Labour got 27.6% of the vote in 2017). .... I have mentioned this before, but where polling companies provide data by region, the East of England shows significantly higher swings than average. R&W's large poll of 10,000 dated 7-10 June showed a 26% Con to Lab swing in the East in the context of a Lab lead of 27 points. (19% GB swing) MIC's samples (in 5 polls of 2,000) from 23 May onwards show a 22% Con to Lab swing in the context of an average Lab lead of 19 points. (15% GB swing) Labour Together's April poll showed a 23% Con to Lab swing in the East in the context of a Lab lead of 22 points. (17% GB swing) Each of these has a sample of around 600-700 for the region, and in all three the East has the highest swing of any region. The swing needed in Braintree is 24% |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jun 15, 2024 14:09:09 GMT
I think Labour has plans for tax rises that have been omitted from the campaign and manifesto, hence the very precise language that is being used. CGT reform, Council Tax reform, Inheritance Tax are obvious ones - but I think we may get entirely new taxes that have never been mentioned. Oh goody! That's something to look forward to. |
|
|
|
Post by alberto on Jun 15, 2024 14:13:34 GMT
I think the inventor of the ground-level letterbox would be one of the few cases where my otherwise steadfast opposition to capital punishment might waver slightly. I've found a hockey glove pretty good protection from the mantraps (the fingerless kind that outfield players wear on their top hand), just have to watch the bristle-mouths don't eat it 🙂 I feel your pain on the low letter boxes and mantraps comrades. I got given a tool that was pretty useful. Sort of like a table tennis bat size but squared off and with a slot to post the leaflets through. It made getting the leaflets through those stiff bristle ones a lot easier but you had something else to carry, and it was harder to sort leaflets on the move. Maybe a holster of some kind would overcome that. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jun 15, 2024 14:14:25 GMT
Marr's optimistic views of what a Labour government could do in relation to the European union are rather undermined by the load of old cobblers that Starmer is still spouting. youtu.be/SPc3AuzQtaY?si=und8tbgORh5fnPC5 |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jun 15, 2024 14:19:00 GMT
This season's must have for the trendy racist.  |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jun 15, 2024 14:31:17 GMT
graham "Also managed to ignore the good stuff Blair did. Ho hum." "A bit like saying 'the Fuhrer built some really good Autobahns'. 
|
|
|
|
Post by RAF on Jun 15, 2024 15:01:07 GMT
The British Establishment's spider's web draws in another unwitting member. A thorn in the side now swallowed whole. Gulp. Swallow. He's gone. I heard him interviewed on the radio. He said he had been offered an honour last year but turned it down until Paula wotsername handed hers back. She now has, and he said he hoped the knighthood would help get publicity for his continued fight to get compensation for the victims. Hardly swallowed. Great man. Both can be true. The State trying to co-opt him so as to dim his sparkle; and Bates taking the honour on behalf of all those wronged and making clear he will not be silenced. |
|
|
|
Post by robbiealive on Jun 15, 2024 15:01:44 GMT
I watched snippets of Sunak v Nick Robinson and just now Starmer v.
He put Sunack on the rack. He was soft on Starmer letting go on at length, pushing a few slogans, and not saying very much.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jun 15, 2024 15:05:50 GMT
I find it impossible to believe, if only for the survival of his government, that Starmer wants to spend the first few years of power presiding over hundreds of councils going bust, policing, courts and prisons in crisis, record waiting lists in the NHS, etc. It could be blamed on the previous government, but it would still make it impossible to maintain the positive narrative of change and improvement needed to get re-elected. I had a look for a chart of tax take as a percentage of GDP and found some at ukpublicrevenue.co.uk/past_revenue and obr.uk/box/the-uks-tax-burden-in-historical-and-international-context/Looked at historically, tax take was about 10% of GDP in 1900. This shot up around WW1 and settled around 20% after that war. Then we had WW2, at the end of which it hit 40%, but fluctuated around 32-33% up to approx 1990. The OBR chart gives a bit more detail because it only starts at 1965, so the scale is stretched. It also has some international comparisons, which are pretty interesting for the EU14 and G7. Unlike the british situation which seems to be dominated by war debt through the 20th century and has moved in step changes held for decades, these other two show a much steadier rise over time. From 81-93 Uk tax take fell steadily, which probably is a mixture of having a government dedicated to cutting services provided by the state, together with a period of some UK industrial recovery towards the end. The difference to today is perhaps that while we have again had a government dedicated to cutting government services, it has singularly failed to be a period of economic recovery. From 2000 to 2010 G7 and EU14 tax percentages fell gently while that in the UK rose gently. At all times since about 1985 the UK was below these two comparisons, EU14 has always been higher than G7 by 3-5% since about 1975. So while the labour period showed a rise in taxation, it was always still below international comparisons and something of a catch up exercise compared to other developed nations, following the period from about 81-93 during which conservatives reduced tax take. So all in all what happened in the UK was the conservative Thatcher government called a halt to government expenditure at a higher level than international comparisons. State expenditure then fell crossing over the international comparisons so ours was now lower, and it has stayed lower ever since. Labour managed a bit of a catch up, providing more state services, but then con first introduced a period of austerity where tax percentages fell, but then despite still deteriorating services entered a period of rising taxation, which despite their philosophy most recently has been shooting up back through the 40% mark. (should perhaps note these two sources are not entirely consistent on exact levels)
The bottom line seems to be a vindcation that all comparable countries to the Uk have seen percentage tax take rise over the last 50 years or so, that is the pattern produced by necessity. Theirs has been much more a steady growth, whereas ours was in ideological jumps. Con pushed it down for ideological reasons, lab recovered it somewhat but it is still significantly low by international comparisons.
Given this, its hardly a surprise if state services in the UK are poorer than in comparable countries, we have had a 50 year backlog of lower expenditure than them with accumulation of lack of investment in national infrastructure.
Its total rot to say the Uk is over taxed, its under taxed and it shows in state services, you get what you pay for.
|
|
|
|
Post by EmCat on Jun 15, 2024 15:17:05 GMT
I see that Johnny Mercer has said today that the Tory campaign had been “up and down”. Can anyone identify what the "up" part was? I'm at a loss to think of anything. Maybe it's along the lines of "The good news is that I could hear every word he said" "And the bad news?" "I could hear every word he said" So, the "up" would be "We've started our campaign". And the "down" would be "We've started our campaign" |
|
patrickbrian
Member
These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
Posts: 316
|
Post by patrickbrian on Jun 15, 2024 15:19:00 GMT
Danny
"Given this, its hardly a surprise if state services in the UK are poorer than in comparable countries, we have had a 50 year backlog of lower expenditure than them with accumulation of lack of investment in national infrastructure."
I'm not good at this stuff myself, but that is also what my accountant tells me (who I hope is!)
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jun 15, 2024 15:20:47 GMT
pjw1961 "I see that Johnny Mercer has said today that the Tory campaign had been “up and down”. Can anyone identify what the "up" part was? I'm at a loss to think of anything." This probably means that Mercer has wind that a Tory shagging scandal is going to break in the Sunday red tops.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jun 15, 2024 15:21:20 GMT
@danny Totally agree with you about the Falklands War. A shocking failure of diplomacy that led to a needless totem war and consequent loss of life. It recused Thatcher's floundering premiership though. Lord Carrington, an honourable man, was absolutely right to resign over the diplomatic disaster. The ultimate needless war. A bit like saying that it was Liz Truss's fault that Putin invaded Ukraine. Nothing whatever like blaming Liz truss for anything - she was in power for such a short time it is unlikely to have made any difference in the long run. She is currently being used as a scapegoat for deterioration in interest rates, etc, which were going to happen anyway. She just brought them on a bit quicker.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine began in 2014, so that would be Cameron in power, and despite some blustering, we did bugger all to get them out from the territory they occupied. We did so little they decided to have another go, so you could argue the wests overall inaction caused the current conflict, but the UK was only a small part of that. Whereas the Falklands was british territory throughout, controlled and defended by the UK. It was us, ie the conservative government, who were negotiating with Argentina to give them the Falklands despite local objections from islanders. Had Argentina not invaded, then most likely we would now long since have handed over the islands which everyone believed was our intention. Only they jumped the gun (for their own political reasons, Galtieri needed a victory to stay in power), which was so embarassing for the Thatcher government they concluded they had to stake their whole electoral credibility on getting them back - despite having been trying to get rid of them as a liability. As it turned out Britain won, but it was a very chancy business where we had no reserve of naval forces to replace critical losses had Argentina got in some lucky strikes at the outset. The controversy about sinking the Belgrano had a lot to do with how little naval reserve we had, we simply couldnt take any avoidable risk whether controversial or not. Thatcher doubled down on her mistake, but won.
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jun 15, 2024 15:49:48 GMT
pjw1961 "I see that Johnny Mercer has said today that the Tory campaign had been “up and down”. Can anyone identify what the "up" part was? I'm at a loss to think of anything." This probably means that Mercer has wind that a Tory shagging scandal is going to break in the Sunday red tops. They might actually go up in the polls should such a scandal emerge. There is a latent shaggers vote amongst the British electorate that politicians tend to ignore. At their peril too, I might add. |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jun 15, 2024 15:50:53 GMT
I watched snippets of Sunak v Nick Robinson and just now Starmer v. He put Sunack on the rack. He was soft on Starmer letting go on at length, pushing a few slogans, and not saying very much. Well, that's the Bolshevik Broadcasting Company for you. Mercy Man was right all along. |
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Jun 15, 2024 16:03:49 GMT
I find it impossible to believe, if only for the survival of his government, that Starmer wants to spend the first few years of power presiding over hundreds of councils going bust, policing, courts and prisons in crisis, record waiting lists in the NHS, etc. It could be blamed on the previous government, but it would still make it impossible to maintain the positive narrative of change and improvement needed to get re-elected. I had a look for a chart of tax take as a percentage of GDP and found some at ukpublicrevenue.co.uk/past_revenue and obr.uk/box/the-uks-tax-burden-in-historical-and-international-context/Looked at historically, tax take was about 10% of GDP in 1900. This shot up around WW1 and settled around 20% after that war. Then we had WW2, at the end of which it hit 40%, but fluctuated around 32-33% up to approx 1990. The OBR chart gives a bit more detail because it only starts at 1965, so the scale is stretched. It also has some international comparisons, which are pretty interesting for the EU14 and G7. Unlike the british situation which seems to be dominated by war debt through the 20th century and has moved in step changes held for decades, these other two show a much steadier rise over time. From 81-93 Uk tax take fell steadily, which probably is a mixture of having a government dedicated to cutting services provided by the state, together with a period of some UK industrial recovery towards the end. The difference to today is perhaps that while we have again had a government dedicated to cutting government services, it has singularly failed to be a period of economic recovery. From 2000 to 2010 G7 and EU14 tax percentages fell gently while that in the UK rose gently. At all times since about 1985 the UK was below these two comparisons, EU14 has always been higher than G7 by 3-5% since about 1975. So while the labour period showed a rise in taxation, it was always still below international comparisons and something of a catch up exercise compared to other developed nations, following the period from about 81-93 during which conservatives reduced tax take. So all in all what happened in the UK was the conservative Thatcher government called a halt to government expenditure at a higher level than international comparisons. State expenditure then fell crossing over the international comparisons so ours was now lower, and it has stayed lower ever since. Labour managed a bit of a catch up, providing more state services, but then con first introduced a period of austerity where tax percentages fell, but then despite still deteriorating services entered a period of rising taxation, which despite their philosophy most recently has been shooting up back through the 40% mark. (should perhaps note these two sources are not entirely consistent on exact levels)
The bottom line seems to be a vindcation that all comparable countries to the Uk have seen percentage tax take rise over the last 50 years or so, that is the pattern produced by necessity. Theirs has been much more a steady growth, whereas ours was in ideological jumps. Con pushed it down for ideological reasons, lab recovered it somewhat but it is still significantly low by international comparisons.
Given this, its hardly a surprise if state services in the UK are poorer than in comparable countries, we have had a 50 year backlog of lower expenditure than them with accumulation of lack of investment in national infrastructure.
Its total rot to say the Uk is over taxed, its under taxed and it shows in state services, you get what you pay for.
Thank you Danny That was interesting (and backs the point I make regularly- too regularly probably, that parties need to square with us that taxes need to rise and public services need to be expanded) |
|
|
|
Post by moby on Jun 15, 2024 16:12:06 GMT
Sorry to go off piste but this is brilliant.....the French Navy playing Breton pipes....I think!
|
|
|
|
Post by guymonde on Jun 15, 2024 16:12:35 GMT
I think the inventor of the ground-level letterbox would be one of the few cases where my otherwise steadfast opposition to capital punishment might waver slightly. I've found a hockey glove pretty good protection from the mantraps (the fingerless kind that outfield players wear on their top hand), just have to watch the bristle-mouths don't eat it 🙂 I feel your pain on the low letter boxes and mantraps comrades. I got given a tool that was pretty useful. Sort of like a table tennis bat size but squared off and with a slot to post the leaflets through. It made getting the leaflets through those stiff bristle ones a lot easier but you had something else to carry, and it was harder to sort leaflets on the move. Maybe a holster of some kind would overcome that. I think you're referring to a Postie Mate TM. The man who makes/sell it gives a gory picture of someone who had their finger attacked by a dog. I used it a few times but either some of the post slots were the wrong size or the leaflets were the wrong size so it became bin fodder. I agree about toe level, but also ones that open vertically - always top hinged with a fierce spring. |
|
|
|
Post by robbiealive on Jun 15, 2024 16:22:23 GMT
I watched snippets of Sunak v Nick Robinson and just now Starmer v. He put Sunack on the rack. He was soft on Starmer letting go on at length, pushing a few slogans, and not saying very much. Well, that's the Bolshevik Broadcasting Company for you. Mercy Man was right all along. No one under 70 has heard of bolshevik or bolshi anymore. I was at a reunion recently and quizzed the young people re politics and such. They had never heard of Humphry Bogart. They were the grown-up children of friends of mine so obviously they were voting Labour. They would probably think Bolshevik was a cocktail. They asked me if I knew the difference between tinder and grindr. As for mercian , or Archie Rice as I think of him, I'm surprised to find he can express himself so clearly even in the political idiom of the early Thatcher era. He may soon reach the present century. Unless he has a relapse. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2024 16:23:37 GMT
Sad news:
“ For the first time ever this election, Forecast UK, one of the most successful election models in 2019 and 2017, is predicting that the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's chance of retaining his seat have fallen below 50%.
The Forecast UK model shows Sunak with only a 48.7% chance of winning Richmond and Northallerton, in a seat where he had a majority in 2019 of 24,000. The Labour challenger Tom Wilson has a 43.2% chance and the Reform candidate Lee Martin has an 8% chance. The fact that the Labour candidate is so close to Sunak in his chance to win the seat is an indication that the constituency is on a knife-edge and the Prime Minister may be the biggest casualty of this election.”
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2024 16:29:12 GMT
And they’re sticking to their GE forecast:
“UK Forecast
Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2019
Labour 41.6% (+9.5%) 459 - 489 +259 to +289
Conservatives 20.2% (-23.5%) 71 - 94 -300 to -277
Reform 15.8% (+13.8%) 1 - 11 +1 to +11
Liberal Democrats 10.3% (-1.3%) 40 - 44 +31 to +35
Green 6.0% (+3.3%) 0 - 1 -1 to nc
SNP 3.0% (-0.9%) 20 - 24 -28 to -24
Plaid Cymru 0.6% (+0.2%) 2 - 5 nc to +3
Speaker 1 nc
Northern Ireland 18 nc
Most likely result - Labour Landslide
England
Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2019
Labour 43.5% (+9.6%) 407 - 436 +226 to +255
Conservatives 21.4% (-25.9%) 64 - 87 -289 to -266
Reform 17.4% (+15.3%) 1 - 11 +1 to +11
Liberal Democrats 11.1% (-1.4%) 36 - 40 +29 to +33
Green 6.6% (+3.6%) 0 - 1 -1 to 0
Speaker 1 nc
Most likely result - Labour Majority of seats
Scotland
Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2019
Labour 35.2% (+16.7%) 26 - 29 +25 to +28
SNP 34.6% (-10.4%) 20 - 24 -28 to -24
Conservatives 13.9% (-11.2%) 3 - 5 -3 to -1
Liberal Democrats 7.9% (-1.7%) 2 - 5 nc to +3
Reform 5.9% (+5.5%) 0 nc
Greens 2.4% (+1.4%) 0 nc
Most Likely Result - Labour Plurality of Seats
Wales
Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2019
Labour 41.9% (+1.0%) 24 - 26 +6 to +8
Conservatives 20.5% (-15.6%) 2 - 4 -10 to -8
Reform 13.9% (+8.5%) 0 nc
Plaid Cymru 13.0% (+3.1%) 2 - 5 nc to +3
Liberal Democrats 5.9% (-0.1%) 0 - 1 nc to +1
Greens 4.6% (+3.6%) 0 nc
Most Likely Result - Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2019
Sinn Fein 28.4% (+5.6%) 6 - 8 nc to +1
DUP 20.9% (-9.6%) 5 - 8 -2 to +2
Alliance 15.6% (-1.2%) 0 - 3 -1 to +2
UUP 12.3% (+0.7%) 0 - 2 nc to +2
TUV 12.1% (new) 0 new
SDLP 10.5% (-4.3%) 1 - 3 -1 to +1
Most Likely Result - Sinn Fein Plurality”
Potentially Labour 400 seats more than Tories?!? Blimey….
|
|
|
|
Post by guymonde on Jun 15, 2024 16:33:31 GMT
Sad news: “ For the first time ever this election, Forecast UK, one of the most successful election models in 2019 and 2017, is predicting that the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's chance of retaining his seat have fallen below 50%. The Forecast UK model shows Sunak with only a 48.7% chance of winning Richmond and Northallerton, in a seat where he had a majority in 2019 of 24,000. The Labour challenger Tom Wilson has a 43.2% chance and the Reform candidate Lee Martin has an 8% chance. The fact that the Labour candidate is so close to Sunak in his chance to win the seat is an indication that the constituency is on a knife-edge and the Prime Minister may be the biggest casualty of this election.” How many 'Portillo Moments' will we get? Too many potential Portillos have done suicide, which is most unsporting but I still forecast 5 |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2024 16:39:24 GMT
Sad news: “ For the first time ever this election, Forecast UK, one of the most successful election models in 2019 and 2017, is predicting that the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's chance of retaining his seat have fallen below 50%. The Forecast UK model shows Sunak with only a 48.7% chance of winning Richmond and Northallerton, in a seat where he had a majority in 2019 of 24,000. The Labour challenger Tom Wilson has a 43.2% chance and the Reform candidate Lee Martin has an 8% chance. The fact that the Labour candidate is so close to Sunak in his chance to win the seat is an indication that the constituency is on a knife-edge and the Prime Minister may be the biggest casualty of this election.” Wonder where that leaves Sunak’s guarantee to stay on for a full term. What a fraud. |
|
