25 May 2024 : LAB: 44% / CON: 22% / REF 14% / LDM 9%

[Mark]

The starting gun has been fired. 39 days to go before polling day.

YouGov poll here shows a slight narrowing.

Are things tightening a little now that people are faced with a choice, or is this just noise? Only time will tell.

Anyway, as promised, now that the election is on, a brand new polling thread...

Also, a shout out to our lurkers, who have, understandably, increased in number in the last few days. Don't be shy, feel free to join up and share your thoughts.

Anyway, the poll...

Our first YouGov Westminster voting intention poll since the election was called (23-24 May)

Lab: 44% (-2)
Con: 22% (+1)
Reform UK: 14% (+2)
Lib Dem: 9% (nc)
Green: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (nc)

Changes from 21-22 May
via @yougov

[steve]

I suppose I should have waited😎

[graham]

It is quite normal for an incumbent to receive some polling boost in the aftermath of an election announcement - particularly when that announcement has come a bit out of the blue. We saw that in the week following Theresa May's surprise announcement in 2017. She made her statement on April 18th and over the following week pollsters recorded Tory leads as high as 25% with Comres giving the party a 50% vote share. By the end of April the lead had begun to fall back somewhat with polls recording leads below 20%.

[Dave]

On the last thread Lulu had said ... "Hi everyone. So a lot people will be going on hols over the half-term (us included), and the campaigns haven't geared up. One wouldn't expect much movement in the polls yet. Most of us seem to be expecting the Tories to get about 30%, when do people think the polls will start indicating this"?  

I thought this was a really interesting question that deserved to remain alive on this thread because if they don't recover significantly then they are screwed.  Like Lulu I too want to know what others feel about this. (Below are my copied and pasted thoughts thoughts from the last thread on this) ... 


Not before August, hopefully

To give a serious answer to your question, unless some spectacular and unexpected things happen during the campaign, I'd be surprised if they got to 30% on 4th July. I'm a Labourite but I don't think I'm looking at this through red-tinted glasses. Typically, they are averaging in the low 20s. They need to increase that by about a third to get to that not-so-magic 30% figure. What's going to enable them to do that?

After their brilliant start to the campaign it feels more likely at present that those figures won't improve as significantly as they need them to, or that they could even drop further. They have no big beasts to unleash on the public - it feels at the moment that Sunak is all they have, and he's looking like the hopeless, ill-at-ease, out-of-touch, over-promoted bean-counter that he is (my apologies for hyphen overload).

In '92 a Brixton lad from a humble background got on his soap-box and fought tooth and nail for his party and he had to. The Tories could do with someone like him now and to be clear, I'm no fan of Major. But can anyone see Sunak on a soapbox unless it was made of gold and diamond encrusted? If he did, can anyone see that looking credible to the public? Can anyone see him suddenly becoming a more naturalistic 'performer' in front of the public? I just can't.

For me the one thing that might move the dial is if the Telgraphs of this world's virulently anti-Labour messages get amplified by the the broadcast media, chief amongst them, I'm afraid to say, the BBC. Most Britons don't buy the Telegraph. All of get to hear what it thinks as ridiculously, the broadcast media's dog still allow the print media' tail to wag it.

[thylacine]

I do feel sorry for Corbyn sometimes on here so just for all the haters 😂https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/25/loved-islington-voters-40-year-connection-to-jeremy-corbyn

[Deleted]

May 25, 2024 12:16:43 GMT thylacine said:

I do feel sorry for Corbyn sometimes on here so just for all the haters 😂https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/25/loved-islington-voters-40-year-connection-to-jeremy-corbyn

I hate very few people - Trump, Putin obvious exceptions- and I certainly don’t “hate” Corbyn or imagine that anybody on this site has such feelings.
i just never liked him much and don’t really see what he or his acolytes think he has achieved after a lifetime of campaigning. World peace? Hardly. 

[pjw1961]

May 25, 2024 12:16:43 GMT thylacine said:

I do feel sorry for Corbyn sometimes on here so just for all the haters 😂https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/25/loved-islington-voters-40-year-connection-to-jeremy-corbyn

For the record, I don't hate Corbyn and am told he is an excellent constituency MP. Teresa May cited that when asked to say something positive about her opponent. 

[pjw1961]

May 25, 2024 12:15:32 GMT Dave said:

On the last thread Lulu had said ... "Hi everyone. So a lot people will be going on hols over the half-term (us included), and the campaigns haven't geared up. One wouldn't expect much movement in the polls yet. Most of us seem to be expecting the Tories to get about 30%, when do people think the polls will start indicating this"?  

I thought this was a really interesting question that deserved to remain alive on this thread because if they don't recover significantly then they are screwed.  Like Lulu I too want to know what others feel about this. (Below are my copied and pasted thoughts thoughts from the last thread on this) ... 

As I put on the prior thread, I think the Conservatives will get 27-28% of the vote. 

[alec]

graham - (from previous thread) - "I am happy to provide a very positive experience of the NHS yesterday when I attended Norfolk & Norwich Hospital for an Angiogram procedure in the Cardiology unit."

Glad to hear it all went well, but I think you may be a bit confused.

An Angiogram is normally reserved for a major birthday or other special occasion, and involves the arrival of a former leading East Enders actress who then proceeds to strip while singing 'Happy Birthday'.

Isn't it?

[graham]

Polling Day is now 40 days away and I shall be interested to compare polls appearing in tomorrow's papers -- and elsewhere in the media - with what was recorded at the same stage in 2017. The election period was actually a week longer that year than we now face in 2024 - possibly due to potential delays that might have arisen courtesy of the FTPA which no longer applies. For the record, the last weekend of April 2017 recorded Tory leads in the range of 11% - 19%.

[RAF]

May 25, 2024 12:25:14 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

May 25, 2024 12:16:43 GMT thylacine said:

I do feel sorry for Corbyn sometimes on here so just for all the haters 😂https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/25/loved-islington-voters-40-year-connection-to-jeremy-corbyn

I hate very few people - Trump, Putin obvious exceptions- and I certainly don’t “hate” Corbyn or imagine that anybody on this site has such feelings.
i just never liked him much and don’t really see what he or his acolytes think he has achieved after a lifetime of campaigning. World peace? Hardly. 

I suppose it depends how you see politics and the role of an MP. Up until he submitted his nomination for leadership of the Labour party (which he did not expect to win) he has never sought even a front bench role. So, the likelihood he could "achieve anything" as in pushing through Bills was always unlikely.
He has instead focused on shop floor issues. Fighting and campaigning for those (often the weakest and most vulnerable in society). He has been tireless in these endeavours and along with the Unions, for whom he has raised hundreds of thousands of pounds, many fights have been won over the years.
Some MPs see this part of their job as being the most important. Others chase real power.

Ask yourself a question. If you were a vulnerable worker, or someone on the margins of society ignored and demonised by the prevailing political mood, would you turn to Rishi, Starmer or Corbyn for help?

[Deleted]

By the way, given how long ago the days of post-war figures such as Heseltine and Healey are now can we please ban the use of the description “big beasts”. For the current pygmies?

(No offence to pygmies)

[Deleted]

Good points RAF - I agree these are very important elements of a decent local MP’s work and I was thinking more of a sort of irrelevant bigger picture.

[neilj]

Hopefully Labour will reduce the voting age to 16, fascinating thread here from 1969 when the voting age was reduced to 18. Same arguments against then as now and still bogus
x.com/Samfr/status/1794351608572281010

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 25, 2024 12:15:32 GMT Dave said:

On the last thread Lulu had said ... "Hi everyone. So a lot people will be going on hols over the half-term (us included), and the campaigns haven't geared up. One wouldn't expect much movement in the polls yet. Most of us seem to be expecting the Tories to get about 30%, when do people think the polls will start indicating this"?  

I thought this was a really interesting question that deserved to remain alive on this thread because if they don't recover significantly then they are screwed.  Like Lulu I too want to know what others feel about this. (Below are my copied and pasted thoughts thoughts from the last thread on this) ... 


But can anyone see Sunak on a soapbox unless it was made of gold and diamond encrusted? 

And fitted with rotor blades  🚁

(top hyphenating btw, matter-of-fact it was state-of-the-art)

[steve]

I don't hate Corbyn but I felt he was taking the Labour party in the wrong direction and he had a blind spot in respect of both Irish republican terrorism and war criminal Putin which he's not willing even to accept.
I voted twice for alternative candidates both of whom I feel would have achieved greater success against May and responded in a more cross party manner placing national interest rather than partisan doctrine first in respect of brexit.

But he was duly elected twice by a majority of members and I didn't frankly want to wait around for the inevitable failure just so I could say I told you so, I couldn't in all conscience campaign for Labour under Corbyn but I would of course have preferred to see a Labour led government rather than the cluster shambles since 2015.

You either accept the failure of leadership and try and enact change within the party or you look for an alternative.

I'm comfortable that at this point the liberal democrats position on Europe, internationalism, climate crisis, treating asylum seekers as people not a problem and constitutional change to fairer voting are a better fit with my views. The current leader wasn't my preference but I don't feel his influence is excessively counterproductive.

I don't rule out that Labour after the election might move closer to the lib dems positions but at the moment Starmer and the Brexit lite Labour party just aren't cutting it for me.
I do think extending the franchise to 16-18 year olds is a step in the right direction.

[steve]

SO, The Tories now have 4 working days to find and select 200 candidates, with no embarrassing tweets, emails, or texts in their shady pasts. Good luck with that one !

[jayblanc]

May 25, 2024 12:16:43 GMT thylacine said:

I do feel sorry for Corbyn sometimes on here so just for all the haters 😂https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/25/loved-islington-voters-40-year-connection-to-jeremy-corbyn

I don't hate Corbyn. I think he was a perfectly fine back bencher, and represented a specific group that needed a voice he provided.

I did hate the cult of personality that formed around him amongst "Momentum" Activists when he became a leader, that attempted to cover for some very obvious flaws in his leadership by viciously attacking critics, and did nothing to overturn the idea that he was still representing and responding to only a small portion of his party. This led to the Anti-Semitic crisis, by treating what should have been some simple incidents where members should have been clearly suspended, as attacks on the Corbyn leadership. But this was not alone the reason for his fall.

I was, and still am, strongly angry at Corbyn for his behaviour during the Brexit referendum, where he basically damned the EU with faint praise, and put party before country by refusing to cross-party campaign.

Corbyn is the political equivalent of a life long theoretical academic who becomes CEO of a manufacturing company. Sure, he *could* have breathed fresh life into the party. But what actually happened is a circle of "Momentum" Activists circled around to protect and enable him at the cost of the rest of the party. And then he failed to take on any differences between theory and practice when he had to manage election campaigns. As evidenced by his first general election gains, Brexit referendum disaster, then second general election crater.

Starmer might be a bit of an over-correction. But he's also clearly a much more pragmatic manager, and much less prone to unforced error. I also appreciate his stance that he's not going to offer anything in a campaign that he might have to renege on in Government. I wish he could be a bit more willing to use the bully pulpit on things we should do, even if they are not feasible immediately. There's a catalogue of things that could follow the "Vote at 16" aspiration, including full buildout of HS2.

[neilj]

May 25, 2024 12:16:43 GMT thylacine said:

I do feel sorry for Corbyn sometimes on here so just for all the haters 😂https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/25/loved-islington-voters-40-year-connection-to-jeremy-corbyn

In fairness he does have a lot of committed supporters, some even say ‘If Jeremy Corbyn jumped from the 10th floor, we’d all follow him’ although I'm not sure that is necessarily a good thing...
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leader-general-election-campaign-vgbtxdz96

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Corbyn not only backs the EU but offers a second ref., and he’s a bad guy for not being pro-EU enough. Starmer endorses Brexit and he’s a good guy. People think Corbyn shouldn’t have been bothered about more evidence regarding Salisbury, and he’s a bad guy. Blair actually INVADES somewhere on trumped-up evidence and he’s a good guy.

Regarding the 2017 election, Corbyn was always likely to lose without some epic crisis befalling the government, because such crises are how power usually changes hands. Winter-of-discontent, Black Weds, Banking Crisis, and now the triple hits of pandemic/partygate, Truss meltdown and Cost-of-living crisis. Starmer wasn’t doing very well until he had the benefit of all that - indeed he nearly resigned. You couldn’t really say it was inevitable Corbyn would fail, because you don’t know if a crisis will hit. You can say he would probably fail if a crisis don’t hit, because that’s how most opposition leaders fail. He got within a few percent WITHOUT such an event, and that’s with all the ministers resigning.

[Danny]

I think Corbyn demonstrated there is a huge apetite in the UK for his sort of policies. IF we ditched FPP, lab would split into at least two parties one the more Corbynite left and the other centrist. Which might beg the question we could end up with three centre parties right con, libs and left cons, which is really two too many. So the final result would reasonably be three parties across the spectrum where now there are, er, three. But more clearly delineated in position. You could well imagine the centre party always as kingmaker in a way it isnt now what with all three parties scrabbling for a local FPP majority.

At the moment there hardly seems a hairsbreadth between lab and con headline policies. The real difference between them is the direction they would seek for the future, where con believe in shrinking the state, whereas labour believe in redistributive state services. These are genuine and important differences.

Theresa May was absolutely correct to place care for the elderly into her election mainfesto. Critics argued it totally weakened her case, but she concentrated on the two big issues. Brexit, obviously and her intended hard outcome. But the biggest expanding chunk of state expenditure is care for the elderly, and no government has been willing to create a solution for this despite the problem being obvious for decades. I dont remember it being talked about, but it must already have begun under Major if not Thatcher. We have an expanding elderly population and they use most of the resources of both the NHS and social care. Social care budgets have bankrupted local councils in a ridiculous way. The NHS overall performance is falling as demand grows.

The NHS currently is a gatekeepered service. GPs are clearly overloaded, and there have been calls to transfer budget from hospitals to them. Obviously that wouldnt help hospitals cope, but you just have to look at the two services in action to see how time is rationed for GPs but so much more leisurely within hospitals. The fault line is the casualty department, where all who cannot get sense from their GP end up.

An alternative way to look at this however is an observation from an interview I heard of the head of the GPs trade body. Where they were discussing that a GP might see 40 patients in a day, but an important part of their job is to identify the 2-4 of them who actually have something seriously wrong with them. The corrollary of this is that something like 80%+ of GP appointments arent really important for their health. Thats a stunning waste of resources.

[James E]

May 25, 2024 12:29:35 GMT pjw1961 said:

May 25, 2024 12:15:32 GMT Dave said:

On the last thread Lulu had said ... "Hi everyone. So a lot people will be going on hols over the half-term (us included), and the campaigns haven't geared up. One wouldn't expect much movement in the polls yet. Most of us seem to be expecting the Tories to get about 30%, when do people think the polls will start indicating this"?  

I thought this was a really interesting question that deserved to remain alive on this thread because if they don't recover significantly then they are screwed.  Like Lulu I too want to know what others feel about this. (Below are my copied and pasted thoughts thoughts from the last thread on this) ... 

As I put on the prior thread, I think the Conservatives will get 27-28% of the vote. 

pjw1961
I've gone for a similar figure: 28.5%. But my seats prediction for the Tories of 131 is lower than yours by 27.

To answer LL's point, I think we are likely to see some movement in the next week or so, if it is really going to happen. 2017 is not the only time when the polls have moved during the campaign. One rather forgotten example was 1997, when the polling average moved from Lab 52.5%, Con 28.5% in late Feb/early March to a final position of Lab 48%, Con 30% in the final eve-of-election polls. So a 6-point net movement. I think we are quite likely to see a similar movement in the next 5 weeks, but more Con gain than Lab losses.

The 2019 election saw little change in the Tories' polling lead, because both Con & Lab rose by similar amounts. The first polls of the 2019 campaign (and the subsequent movements were):
Con 38% ( went up by 7)
Lab 28% (went up by 5)
LD 15.5% (went down by 4)
BXP 10% (went down by 8)

[Rafwan]

Like steve, I voted for altenative candidates to Corbyn (probably same as Steve as it happens), mainly because I didn’t think he could attract sufficiently wide support. But given his clear backing by an enlarged party, I thought he should be given a fair chance. The 2017 result convinced me that a win under his leadership was possible, if he was given full backing. And Crofty, one thing he did achieve was an end (albeit temporary) of austerity. That, above all else, was what led to the 2017 result, and it was hijcked by Johnson (in the guise of ‘levelling up”) which was in turn a significant part of the 2019 result. The illusion continued through the pandemic (with furlough, etc) but the appalling duplicity of it all was revealed and Johnson’s support evaporated.

And jayblanc, I just don’t recognise or understand your point about EU faint praise, and think it is unfair.

[neilj]

The swing voters that matter, viewers of Jeremy Clarksons Farm
x.com/TomHCalver/status/1794296410789335208

[neilj]

Rafwan
"thought he should be given a fair chance. The 2017 result convinced me that a win under his leadership was possible, if he was given full backing"

Out of interest did you criticise Corbyn, Abbott etc for not giving Blair/Brown their full backing. Or did you think they were correct to stick to what they thought was right?

[hireton]

May 25, 2024 13:10:46 GMT neilj said:

Hopefully Labour will reduce the voting age to 16, fascinating thread here from 1969 when the voting age was reduced to 18. Same arguments against then as now and still bogus
x.com/Samfr/status/1794351608572281010

Where the SNP leads, Labour follows.......

[domjg]

May 25, 2024 14:29:25 GMT Rafwan said:

Like steve, I voted for altenative candidates to Corbyn (probably same as Steve as it happens), mainly because I didn’t think he could attract sufficiently wide support. But given his clear backing by an enlarged party, I thought he should be given a fair chance. The 2017 result convinced me that a win under his leadership was possible, if he was given full backing. And Crofty, one thing he did achieve was an end (albeit temporary) of austerity. That, above all else, was what led to the 2017 result, and it was hijcked by Johnson (in the guise of ‘levelling up”) which was in turn a significant part of the 2019 result. The illusion continued through the pandemic (with furlough, etc) but the appalling duplicity of it all was revealed and Johnson’s support evaporated.

And jayblanc, I just don’t recognise or understand your point about EU faint praise, and think it is unfair.

2017 was less to do with Corbyn and more an EU ref rerun imho. It was also a long time ago. Didn't work out so well two years later did it?

[EmCat]

As the PM has decided to take a day off from campaigning, then it is time for the important announcements (which tie in my sig block)

May 25th is noted, by fans of Douglas Adams' Hitchhikers' Guide to the Galaxy books as Towel Day*. For fans of Terry Pratchett's books, May 25th is People’s Revolution of the Glorious Twenty-Fifth of May., as featured in the book Night Watch**


Hence, to commemorate both authors, do both - Wear the lilac towel.

arghink.com/2021/05/wear-the-lilac-towel-day-may-25-2021/


Share and enjoy.


*https://www.nationaldaycalendar.com/national-day/towel-day-may-25#


A towel is just about the most massively useful thing an interstellar hitchhiker can carry. Partly because it has great practical value. You can wrap it around you for warmth as you bound across the cold moons of Jaglan Beta; you can lie on it on the brilliant marble-sanded beaches of Santraginus V, inhaling the heady sea vapours; you can sleep under it beneath the stars which shine so redly on the desert world of Kakrafoon; use it to sail a miniraft down the slow heavy River Moth; wet it for use in hand-to-hand combat; wrap it around your head to ward off noxious fumes or avoid the gaze of the Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal (a mind-bogglingly stupid animal, it assumes that if you can't see it, it can't see you — daft as a brush, but very very ravenous); you can wave your towel in emergencies as a distress signal, and of course you can dry yourself off with it if it still seems to be clean enough.

** "Truth, Justice, Freedom, Reasonably-Priced Love and a Hard-Boiled Egg!"

Depicted in the 29th Discworld book, Night Watch, the revolution saw a people’s uprising that ended the reign of Lord Winder. On every May 25th thence, a group of the uprising’s survivors gather together to honour the casualties with lilacs and one hard-boiled egg.

[steve]

neilj
Corbyn was of course the most serially disloyal Labour mp during the last Labour government and the second most disloyal of all time.

Between 1997 and 2010, during the most recent Labour Government, Corbyn was the Labour MP who voted most often against the party whip, including three-line whip votes. In 2005 he was identified as the second most rebellious Labour MP of all time when the party was in government. He was the most rebellious Labour MP in the 1997–2001 Parliament, the 2001–2005 Parliament and the 2005–2010 Parliament, defying the whip 428 times while Labour was in power.

There were a significant number of Tory mps who voted against Labour less often than Corbyn.

Some might have said he was in the wrong party.

[steve]

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