25 May 2024 : LAB: 44% / CON: 22% / REF 14% / LDM 9%

[Deleted]

It’s brilliant to know that we have sorted out what a great bloke Jeremy Corbyn is so that we can now get on with the 2024 demolition of the current Tory government.

[barbara]

May 25, 2024 12:25:14 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

May 25, 2024 12:16:43 GMT thylacine said:

I do feel sorry for Corbyn sometimes on here so just for all the haters 😂https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/25/loved-islington-voters-40-year-connection-to-jeremy-corbyn

I hate very few people - Trump, Putin obvious exceptions- and I certainly don’t “hate” Corbyn or imagine that anybody on this site has such feelings.
i just never liked him much and don’t really see what he or his acolytes think he has achieved after a lifetime of campaigning. World peace? Hardly. 

I don't understand it. He lost two elections, the second disastrously yet the conspiracy theories continue. He was robbed, he was unlucky, he was undermined from within etc. The simple fact that he was a useless leader never seems to occur to them.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Interesting topic, the great leader hypothesis. The leader is the only decisive factor, nothing else matters much. So does that mean BJ was a great leader because he won an election? Was Heath a great leader because he won in 1970? Was Brown rubbish, or instead hamstrung by the banking crisis? 

And someone can’t get lucky? Cameron wasn’t lucky with the banking crisis? Thatcher wasn’t lucky that the SDP split the Labour vote and the oil price collapsed?

(Incidentally, if we accept that Corbyn was a rubbish leader, it highlights how well left-wing policies can do despite a rubbish leader)

[Deleted]

Why are people posting the same thing twice. And why is Sunak always laughing? I’ve just been ill for ten days and can’t see what’s funny.

[Rafwan]

neilj
Good question, which deserves some thought. Am on granddaughter duty for the rest of the day, but aim to answer tomorrow.

domjg
I cannot for the life of me see any basis for your suggestion that 2017 was rerun eu referendum … . Both main parties said they would abide by the decision.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 25, 2024 16:23:46 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Why are people posting the same thing twice. And why is Sunak always laughing? I’ve just been ill for ten days and can’t see what’s funny.

because he’s a Labour mole, and things are going well

[steve]

Congratulations to Manchester United on winning the final of millionaire kick ball.

[Deleted]

May 25, 2024 16:25:06 GMT steve said:

Congratulations to Manchester United on winning the final of millionaire kick ball.

Just in case they’re a bit too busy to read that this evening I will try to pass the message on Steve.

[pjw1961]

May 25, 2024 14:10:14 GMT James E said:

May 25, 2024 12:29:35 GMT pjw1961 said:

As I put on the prior thread, I think the Conservatives will get 27-28% of the vote. 

pjw1961
I've gone for a similar figure: 28.5%. But my seats prediction for the Tories of 131 is lower than yours by 27.

My Conservative MP figure is higher not because I disagree with the implications in the polling of where the Conservatives are losing votes but because I think Labour and the Lib Dems will prove less efficient at harvesting that movement than MRP's tend to suggest due to 'political' factors. Rather than wrangle about particular constituencies, let me make up an imaginary, but not untypical, semi-rural southern constituency - Borsetshire Central - to illustrate this. 

Borsetshire Central has been Tory for decades. The Liberal/SDP alliance polled in the low 30%s here in the 1980s but still finished a distant second, before a Labour recovery in the 1990s saw Labour in second place in 1997, but still over 10% behind the Tories. The Conservatives have held it with increasing ease since and in 2019 the result was, Con 59%, Lab 25%, LD 16%. The local Tory MP, a firm Brexiter, was not opposed by the Brexit Party. In the 2023 local elections the area covered by the parliamentary constituency returned 8 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat and 2 Green Councillors but only 1 Labour one.  

Borsetshire is full of traditional moderately conservative middle class people and the opinion polls are showing these folk have moved against the Conservatives and toward Labour in significant numbers. Despite the large 2019 majority MRP models are indicating that Labour could take it and have suggested a notional result of: Labour 38%, Conservative 35%, LD 12%, Reform 10%, Green 5% (Labour gain)

However, the local Labour Party, not especially strong or well organised having little tradition to draw on, have been told by national and regional Labour to field a paper candidate (imposed centrally, as it is not a target seat) and send their activists to the nearby target seat of Ambridge, where the Tories are defending a majority of only 9,500. Meanwhile the Lib Dems, with all those councillors, are relatively active and busy circulating "only the Liberal Democrats can win here" leaflets. 

Come the election many voters are indeed motivated to vote out the Conservative, but some go with the national tide and vote Labour, some note the much more active Lib Dem campaign, and the fact they have got used to voting LD in local elections and vote that way, while some vote with their heart for the Greens. When the votes are counted the outcome is:

Conservative 35%, Labour 28%, Lib Dem 22%, Reform 8%, Green 7%. (Conservative hold)

I have a feeling something like that could happen in a lot of the non-urban, non-traditional projected Labour gains in the south, south-west and east. However, Labour supporters will be pleased to know that Ambridge was gained on a 12% swing. 

[Danny]

May 25, 2024 16:05:12 GMT barbara said:

I don't understand it. He lost two elections, the second disastrously yet the conspiracy theories continue. He was robbed, he was unlucky, he was undermined from within etc. The simple fact that he was a useless leader never seems to occur to them.

His entire shadow cabinet resigned, trying to make it as embarassing and difficult for him as they possibly could. And yet he was still returned as leader for a second time by a big majority of those entitled to vote to choose the leader. Frankly the members preferred to have him and ditch all those who had resigned. A total disconnect between the members of the party and most of its appointees as MPs. The voters watched all this, and its a mircacle he succeeded in still keeping them on board after this massive show of disloyalty by labour MPs. The MPs showed they were unfit to be elected to govern the nation, not Corbyn.

Its obvious Corbyn understood his situation and the accident which had propelled him to become leader. He did his level best to have an inclusive cabinet where the right was well represented. It could have worked perfectly well, with a firm right cabinet (well, there werent enough leftish MPs to make one anyway) counterbalancing his leftish stance. It could have been a dream team, could have had campaigning with both explaining how they would work together withn one party to make sure all sides got a fair share. But the right would have none of it. The right lost those elections.

Labour right preferred a con government to the risk of a labour left one.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/25/lib-dems-target-blue-wall-with-blitz-of-2m-leaflets-in-tory-heartlands

They must believe their bar charts are effective. So I guess amongst most voters they may have some impact, and play into assumptions about certain areas. But in any area Labour are making an effort, they are probably not going to be of much value.

[thylacine]

Has Sunak gone through a complete 24 hours gaffe free?

[Deleted]

May 25, 2024 17:08:55 GMT thylacine said:

Has Sunak gone through a complete 24 hours gaffe free?

I think he’s holed up in his own gaff. So who knows?

[Danny]

May 25, 2024 16:57:48 GMT pjw1961 said:

My Conservative MP figure is higher not because I disagree with the implications in the polling of where the Conservatives are losing votes but because I think Labour and the Lib Dems will prove less efficient at harvesting that movement than MRP's tend to suggest due to 'political' factors. Rather than wrangle about particular constituencies, let me make up an imaginary, but not untypical, semi-rural southern constituency - Borsetshire Central - to illustrate this. 

Borsetshire Central has been Tory for decades. The Liberal/SDP alliance polled in the low 30%s here in the 1980s but still finished a distant second, before a Labour recovery in the 1990s saw Labour in second place in 1997, but still over 10% behind the Tories. The Conservatives have held it with increasing ease since and in 2019 the result was, Con 59%, Lab 25%, LD 16%. The local Tory MP, a firm Brexiter, was not opposed by the Brexit Party. In the 2023 local elections the area covered by the parliamentary constituency returned 8 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat and 2 Green Councillors but only 1 Labour one.  

Borsetshire is full of traditional moderately conservative middle class people and the opinion polls are showing these folk have moved against the Conservatives and toward Labour in significant numbers. Despite the large 2019 majority MRP models are indicating that Labour could take it and have suggested a notional result of: Labour 38%, Conservative 35%, LD 12%, Reform 10%, Green 5% (Labour gain)

However, the local Labour Party, not especially strong or well organised having little tradition to draw on, have been told by national and regional Labour to field a paper candidate (imposed centrally, as it is not a target seat) and send their activists to the nearby target seat of Ambridge, where the Tories are defending a majority of only 9,500. Meanwhile the Lib Dems, with all those councillors, are relatively active and busy circulating "only the Liberal Democrats can win here" leaflets. 

Come the election many voters are indeed motivated to vote out the Conservative, but some go with the national tide and vote Labour, some note the much more active Lib Dem campaign, and the fact they have got used to voting LD in local elections and vote that way, while some vote with their heart for the Greens. When the votes are counted the outcome is:

Conservative 35%, Labour 28%, Lib Dem 22%, Reform 8%, Green 7%. (Conservative hold)

I remain unclear just how much difference intensively canvassing somewhere really makes?

In the recent local elections I looked at the previous result and chose accordingly voting for the best performing non con candidate. Leaflets were totally irrelevant to my decision. As it happens the lib dem candidate was standing outside the polling station, though I didnt know he was the candidate, and I chatted to him before voting. He failed to persuade me to vote lib, I had them down as third place, not sure where he eventually came but its was neither first or second. The result went precisely to form, con win lab second, but lab very much closer in what is typically a very safe con seat. You are right, the total anti con vote would have defeated the con had it been united, but almost invariably it is divided, in every Uk election ever.

Any predictive model must already have built into it that there will be marginal seats where a divided opposition will allow the incumbent to still win. But as the opposition margin increases, precisely which seats are the marginal ones which could be influenced changes and those initially marginal become certain con losses, while previous certain con wins become the new marginals. So I'm not convinced this sort of issue isn't essentially already built in to the modelling. Theres always going to be split opposition losses.

The item someone linked recently talking about Sunak's trip to Wales reported con strategy as intensively defending the 80 most marginal seats. If that means the most marginal currently held seats, there is a very real chance all of them will be total opposition landslides on the day however much resources con apply. Whereas what they needed to do to save seats was shift their own resources to the truly newly marginal seats.

I can see however why this strategy still makes sense. It only helps targetting those seats if overall support improves and they are the real marginals. But if they arent the real marginals and overall polling has not improved by election day, then there will be a landslide con loss. Could have been a bit better had the resources been properly applied, but a landslide is a landslide and even saving 50 seats wouldnt have made much difference. So what they are doing is applying resources in the hope the overall picture will come right, because its the only winning strategy. But if that doesnt happen, they will have boosted the landslide against themselves by not defending the right seats. Its all or nothing.

[leftieliberal]

May 25, 2024 16:25:06 GMT steve said:

Congratulations to Manchester United on winning the final of millionaire kick ball.

But will their owners do the double by sacking their manager again immediately after he won the FA Cup for them for only the second time since Fergie retired?

[domjg]

May 25, 2024 16:23:53 GMT Rafwan said:

neilj
Good question, which deserves some thought. Am on granddaughter duty for the rest of the day, but aim to answer tomorrow.

domjg
I cannot for the life of me see any basis for your suggestion that 2017 was rerun eu referendum … . Both main parties said they would abide by the decision.

It was for me and pretty much everyone I knew.

[domjg]

May 25, 2024 16:02:39 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

It’s brilliant to know that we have sorted out what a great bloke Jeremy Corbyn is so that we can now get on with the 2024 demolition of the current Tory government.

It seems to be very important to some people for some unfathomable reason.

[Deleted]

May 25, 2024 17:41:44 GMT domjg said:

May 25, 2024 16:23:53 GMT Rafwan said:

neilj
Good question, which deserves some thought. Am on granddaughter duty for the rest of the day, but aim to answer tomorrow.

domjg
I cannot for the life of me see any basis for your suggestion that 2017 was rerun eu referendum … . Both main parties said they would abide by the decision.

It was for me and pretty much everyone I knew.

I think we all knew what lay ahead if Johnson won so it was certainly a referendum on the severity of the brexit we would have to endure.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 25, 2024 15:31:02 GMT domjg said:

May 25, 2024 14:29:25 GMT Rafwan said:

Like steve , I voted for altenative candidates to Corbyn (probably same as Steve as it happens), mainly because I didn’t think he could attract sufficiently wide support. But given his clear backing by an enlarged party, I thought he should be given a fair chance. The 2017 result convinced me that a win under his leadership was possible, if he was given full backing. And Crofty, one thing he did achieve was an end (albeit temporary) of austerity. That, above all else, was what led to the 2017 result, and it was hijcked by Johnson (in the guise of ‘levelling up”) which was in turn a significant part of the 2019 result. The illusion continued through the pandemic (with furlough, etc) but the appalling duplicity of it all was revealed and Johnson’s support evaporated.

And jayblanc , I just don’t recognise or understand your point about EU faint praise, and think it is unfair.

2017 was less to do with Corbyn and more an EU ref rerun imho. It was also a long time ago. Didn't work out so well two years later did it?

Brexit ref was even earlier than 2017 but doubt that means you’ll not complain about it! People go back even further and bring up Blair’s victories for example, but it’s only the lefty stuff that’s triggering. Talking about Foot didn’t go down well with some, but you didn’t seem to mind talking about Thatch. 

But yes, indeed Brexit was a significant factor - though not the only factor - which is another thing that makes it of interest. 

May 25, 2024 18:00:51 GMT domjg said:

May 25, 2024 16:02:39 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

It seems to be very important to some people for some unfathomable reason.

It’s not so hard to fathom, it’s not often you get to check out what happens with a lefty leader/manifesto, reaction of the media, of the right of the party etc.

[johntel]

@pjw19651

I'm not sure your admirable analysis factors in the historical tensions around elections in Ambridge and Borsetshire:

From the Ambridge Observer - 'Ambridge election ‘on the brink’

In a shock move, Borsetshire District Council (BDC) has announced it may impose direct rule on Ambridge as tensions around the village’s Parish Council election reach breaking point. In this week’s campaigning:
• Parish clerk Jim Lloyd was accused of being a ‘walking, talking election poster’ for candidate Emma Grundy by Lynda Snell, wife of the rival candidate Robert Snell.
• Mr Snell complained that Nic Grundy, Emma’s sister-in-law, had soaked his leaflets in the drip tray at The Bull and had refused to put up a poster because ‘he had too much nasal hair and it wasn’t Hallowe’en till next week.’
• Mrs Snell was asked to leave the Bridge Farm Tea Room after trying to take an unflattering picture of Emma Grundy eating a bacon sandwich.
‘Lively debate is welcome in local democracy but there are limits,’ said a spokesperson for BDC. ‘If the election process continues to be subverted in Ambridge we will not hesitate to send in officers to administer its precept.’


ambridgeobserver.blogspot.com/search?q=election

[domjg]

May 25, 2024 18:43:00 GMT johntel said:

@pjw19651

I'm not sure your admirable analysis factors in the historical tensions around elections in Ambridge and Borsetshire:

From the Ambridge Observer - 'Ambridge election ‘on the brink’

In a shock move, Borsetshire District Council (BDC) has announced it may impose direct rule on Ambridge as tensions around the village’s Parish Council election reach breaking point. In this week’s campaigning:
• Parish clerk Jim Lloyd was accused of being a ‘walking, talking election poster’ for candidate Emma Grundy by Lynda Snell, wife of the rival candidate Robert Snell.
• Mr Snell complained that Nic Grundy, Emma’s sister-in-law, had soaked his leaflets in the drip tray at The Bull and had refused to put up a poster because ‘he had too much nasal hair and it wasn’t Hallowe’en till next week.’
• Mrs Snell was asked to leave the Bridge Farm Tea Room after trying to take an unflattering picture of Emma Grundy eating a bacon sandwich.
‘Lively debate is welcome in local democracy but there are limits,’ said a spokesperson for BDC. ‘If the election process continues to be subverted in Ambridge we will not hesitate to send in officers to administer its precept.’


ambridgeobserver.blogspot.com/search?q=election

I just assumed they were all massive brexity Tories.

[domjg]

May 25, 2024 18:02:40 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

May 25, 2024 17:41:44 GMT domjg said:

It was for me and pretty much everyone I knew.

I think we all knew what lay ahead if Johnson won so it was certainly a referendum on the severity of the brexit we would have to endure.

Absolutely, plus the general inchoate, unthinking anger was still very raw.

[hireton]

First Opinium poll of the campaign:

Labour: 41%
Con: 27%
LD: 10%
Reform: 10%
Greens: 7%

[hireton]

Opinium's tweet:

Labour starts the #GE2024 campaign with 14-point lead:
· Labour 41% (-2)
· Conservatives 27% (+2)
· Lib Dems 10% (+1)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (n/c)

Fieldwork: 23-24 May.
Changes from 15-17 May.

x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1794443322641047575?s=19

[James E]

May 25, 2024 16:57:48 GMT pjw1961 said:

May 25, 2024 14:10:14 GMT James E said:

pjw1961
I've gone for a similar figure: 28.5%. But my seats prediction for the Tories of 131 is lower than yours by 27.

My Conservative MP figure is higher not because I disagree with the implications in the polling of where the Conservatives are losing votes but because I think Labour and the Lib Dems will prove less efficient at harvesting that movement than MRP's tend to suggest due to 'political' factors. Rather than wrangle about particular constituencies, let me make up an imaginary, but not untypical, semi-rural southern constituency - Borsetshire Central - to illustrate this. 

Borsetshire Central has been Tory for decades. The Liberal/SDP alliance polled in the low 30%s here in the 1980s but still finished a distant second, before a Labour recovery in the 1990s saw Labour in second place in 1997, but still over 10% behind the Tories. The Conservatives have held it with increasing ease since and in 2019 the result was, Con 59%, Lab 25%, LD 16%. The local Tory MP, a firm Brexiter, was not opposed by the Brexit Party. In the 2023 local elections the area covered by the parliamentary constituency returned 8 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat and 2 Green Councillors but only 1 Labour one.  

Borsetshire is full of traditional moderately conservative middle class people and the opinion polls are showing these folk have moved against the Conservatives and toward Labour in significant numbers. Despite the large 2019 majority MRP models are indicating that Labour could take it and have suggested a notional result of: Labour 38%, Conservative 35%, LD 12%, Reform 10%, Green 5% (Labour gain)

However, the local Labour Party, not especially strong or well organised having little tradition to draw on, have been told by national and regional Labour to field a paper candidate (imposed centrally, as it is not a target seat) and send their activists to the nearby target seat of Ambridge, where the Tories are defending a majority of only 9,500. Meanwhile the Lib Dems, with all those councillors, are relatively active and busy circulating "only the Liberal Democrats can win here" leaflets. 

Come the election many voters are indeed motivated to vote out the Conservative, but some go with the national tide and vote Labour, some note the much more active Lib Dem campaign, and the fact they have got used to voting LD in local elections and vote that way, while some vote with their heart for the Greens. When the votes are counted the outcome is:

Conservative 35%, Labour 28%, Lib Dem 22%, Reform 8%, Green 7%. (Conservative hold)

I have a feeling something like that could happen in a lot of the non-urban, non-traditional projected Labour gains in the south, south-west and east. However, Labour supporters will be pleased to know that Ambridge was gained on a 12% swing. 

Thanks for that, pjw1961 . Borsetshire Central seems to be absolutely typical of South-of-England constituencies, going by previous results. I would compare this Constituency's result in 2019 of Con 59%, Lab 25%, LD 16% with the aggregated SE/SW/E area which voted 55/23/17 at GE 2019. So the Tories have a lead just 2 points more than they had for the region as a whole. And it was a similar story in 1997 when the Tories led Labour by just over 10% in Borsetshire Central compared to the 9-point lead the Tories achieved then (Con 40, Lab 31, LD 24) in combined SW/SE/E. As an aside, it also looks like the kind of place where the LDs get very close to their regional average vote, too.

So I can't help wondering why it should now diverge so far from the norm for the South of England. By chance, YouGov yesterday published a detailed summary of their recent polling (link 1, below) together with tables (Link 2), which will save me some number crunching. Their current polling for the SE/SW/E combined region with a large sample of 3,808, shows this:

Lab 40% (+17)
Con 24% (-31)
LD 13% (-4)
Ref 14%
Green 7%

That's a 24% swing compared to GE2019. But perhaps, more remarkably, it shows Labour doing a net 25 points better than they did in GE1997 - or a 12.5% swing on top of their previous best performance. To be fair, not all pollsters show quite such a large Labour lead, but they do all show Labour clearly ahead, and with swings that range from 19% upwards. To take a typical example from the opposite end of the polling scale, Opinium's South of England average when I last checked was Lab 36%, Con 29%. That's still  a swing of about 20% on GE2019, even with their 'adjusted' figures. Labour also appear to be gaining more vote share in the South (13%) than for GB as a whole (8%) per Opinium - and indeed other pollsters. 

So I would be mystified by a result of:
Con 35% (-24)
Lab 28% (+3)
LD 22% (+6)
Swing Con to lab 13.5%

The Con 35% would be consistent with a GB share around 29%, but why would Labour underperform so badly here, and why would the third-paced LDs get a 6-point rise when their regional share is down, and in a seat where they are in third place? And why would the LDs be targeting such a seat ? They have around 80 where they came second in 2019. 

There is an obvious precedent for this in the 1997 Election. For this I must refer again to the Danny Dorling analysis of the GE1997 results (3rd link, see page 14 of 18), in which he classifies seats as marginal, possible or safe, Lab  held, marginal, possible or safe Con held (split between those with Lab 2nd and LD 2nd), and LD held seats. In all, this gives 10 different categories of seat, and he provides figures for the overall vote share gains and looses for each of the three main parties. 

The 90 Labour target seats would have been all the Con held marginals, plus about half of the 'possible' ones. So you might have expected one of these groups to produce the highest swings. But no, the greatest rise in the Labour vote (+13.8%), the largest fall in the Tories' vote ( -13.1) and the largest fall in the LD vote (-4.0) ALL happened in the untargeted Safe Con seats - places like Borsetshire Central. As an aside, Labour also achieved an above-average swing from the Conservatives in the category of Safe Con seats where they started in third place, and the LDs second. 


yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49512-how-is-britain-voting-as-the-2024-general-election-campaign-begins
ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_VotingIntention_240522_W.pdf
www.dannydorling.org/wp-content/files/dannydorling_publication_id1318.pdf

[guymonde]

May 25, 2024 12:42:55 GMT RAF said:

May 25, 2024 12:25:14 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Some MPs see this part of their job as being the most important. Others chase real power.

Ask yourself a question. If you were a vulnerable worker, or someone on the margins of society ignored and demonised by the prevailing political mood, would you turn to Rishi, Starmer or Corbyn for help?

I'm not a vulnerable worker but I do think one of the primary duties of a politician is to work to improve the lot of the vulnerable (workers. disabled, subject to prejudice, poorly housed (or unhoused). paid less than a living wage, etc)
My assessment of the 3 you mention: Rishi is not interested so obviously no use; Corbyn is interested and will talk in favour of improvement, but doesn't have the intellect or management skills to make any difference. I am not certain about Starmer but I think he is interested - I'm hoping driven more strongly by this than he is generally believed to be  - and I certainly think he has the capability to make a real improvement.
For this reason, it is he I would turn to. The other 2 would do nothing useful for me (as a vulnerable person)

[oldnat]

Sunak's minders do really seem to hate him. Yet another "unfortunate" photo-op. (though I suspect that there has been a bit of photo shopping done on this image!)


x.com/mrjamesob/status/1794073353222811713

[pjw1961]

James E - I will admit in my made up numbers I probably overdid the Lib Dems and underplayed Labour a bit, so lets reverse that and say my imaginary result is: Con 35%, Lab 31% (+6), LD 19% (+3), but still Con hold.

The fact that it still doesn't deliver the 'expected' result per polling, is of course the point. Your position - and it is a perfectly valid one to take - is that the polling indicates what will happen in the actual result (and I don't deny that's what it is saying). Mine is that reality will fall some way short of that for reasons I have set out on several occasions, mainly that MRP doesn't factor in the degree of effort the parties make, although that doesn't stop a 1997 level landslide.

This is one of those happy times when I can't lose, as either I will be right in my guess or if we do get an even larger victory more along the MRP lines, then I'm happy to be wrong.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

So first couple of polls seem to be reducing Lab's lead by 3-4%! Sunak will be happy.

[Dave]

I’d never heard of Borsetshire before just now, but now I really want to live there.