neilj
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Post by neilj on May 25, 2024 21:05:04 GMT
So first couple of polls seem to be reducing Lab's lead by 3-4%! Sunak will be happy. Not really, pretty static and with a static situation Labour will be happier having an average 21 point lead. In reality all changes are within the margin of error Changes in the Labour lead in the polls since election announced Techne +3 Opinium -4 YouGov -3 WeThink +2 More In Common +1 |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on May 25, 2024 21:06:19 GMT
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 25, 2024 21:06:31 GMT
I’d never heard of Borsetshire before just now, but now I really want to live there. It has been quite heavily chronicled I believe! Just the 20,283 episodes. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 25, 2024 21:06:43 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 25, 2024 21:07:39 GMT
So first couple of polls seem to be reducing Lab's lead by 3-4%! Sunak will be happy. Too early to say. It is all within MoE and could as yet just be 'noise'. We will find out over the next couple of weeks. |
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neilj
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Posts: 6,376
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Post by neilj on May 25, 2024 21:08:32 GMT
Alex Wickham
'NEW: Rishi Sunak has pledged *mandatory* National Service for *every 18 year old* if he wins the election
— they will *have to* do either a year-long army placement or one weekend a month volunteering for a year
First ‘bold’ manifesto policy, but it will be highly controversial'
Dead cat syndrome, it will never happen even if he was the next P.M...desperate
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 25, 2024 21:08:43 GMT
So first couple of polls seem to be reducing Lab's lead by 3-4%! Sunak will be happy. Not really, pretty static and with a static situation Labour will be happier having an average 21 point lead. In reality all changes are within the margin of error Changes in the Labour lead in the polls since election announced Techne +2 Opinium -4 YouGov -1.5 WeThink +2 More In Common +1 |
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Post by bedknobsandboomstick on May 25, 2024 21:08:46 GMT
I won't spoiler it, but they've gone absolutely barking mad.
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on May 25, 2024 21:09:28 GMT
I’d never heard of Borsetshire before just now, but now I really want to live there. It has been quite heavily chronicled I believe! Just the 20,283 episodes. I’ll be sure to pay more attention to the 20,284th one then pjw. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2024 21:10:22 GMT
I’d never heard of Borsetshire before just now, but now I really want to live there. The theoretical house prices might be a problem. |
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Post by johntel on May 25, 2024 21:12:41 GMT
I’d never heard of Borsetshire before just now, but now I really want to live there. Apparently it's based on the fictional county of Worcestershire. You really wouldn't want to live there. |
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neilj
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Posts: 6,376
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Post by neilj on May 25, 2024 21:15:39 GMT
Not really, pretty static and with a static situation Labour will be happier having an average 21 point lead. In reality all changes are within the margin of error Changes in the Labour lead in the polls since election announced Techne +2 Opinium -4 YouGov -1.5 WeThink +2 More In Common +1 Yes you're right and Techne was +3 |
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Post by graham on May 25, 2024 21:19:14 GMT
Not a great deal of sense in the question really. How are voters to ascertain which party IS in second place - rather than WAS in second place in 2019? Labour will have leapfrogged the LDs in scores of seats - indeed jumped from third to first place. Boundary changes further complicate the picture. |
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neilj
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Posts: 6,376
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Post by neilj on May 25, 2024 21:19:31 GMT
Alex Wickham 'NEW: Rishi Sunak has pledged *mandatory* National Service for *every 18 year old* if he wins the election — they will *have to* do either a year-long army placement or one weekend a month volunteering for a year First ‘bold’ manifesto policy, but it will be highly controversial' Dead cat syndrome, it will never happen even if he was the next P.M...desperate This strikes me as a pretend policy for pensioners rather than an actual policy for young people |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 25, 2024 21:19:32 GMT
Spread betting on the outcome at the beginning of the campaign: Attachment DeletedCoincidentally, the mid-points of the spreads are pretty much in line with my prediction. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2024 21:24:28 GMT
Spread betting on the outcome at the beginning of the campaign: View AttachmentCoincidentally, the mid-points of the spreads are pretty much in line with my prediction. Can’t see anything. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 25, 2024 21:36:13 GMT
Spread betting on the outcome at the beginning of the campaign: View AttachmentCoincidentally, the mid-points of the spreads are pretty much in line with my prediction. Can’t see anything. Sell Buy Labour seats 391 - 401
Conservative seats 165 - 173
Lib Dem seats 36 - 40
SNP seats 19 - 23 |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 25, 2024 21:43:26 GMT
Alex Wickham 'NEW: Rishi Sunak has pledged *mandatory* National Service for *every 18 year old* if he wins the election — they will *have to* do either a year-long army placement or one weekend a month volunteering for a year First ‘bold’ manifesto policy, but it will be highly controversial' Dead cat syndrome, it will never happen even if he was the next P.M...desperate This strikes me as a pretend policy for pensioners rather than an actual policy for young people It’s a bit like private school where you either joined the corps or did community service stuff. (Well, you had to do the army stuff for two years first* then could opt out) * or was it three years? Might have been three… |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 21:45:27 GMT
leftieliberal If those tactical voting figures were any where near right given the fall in Tory vote share a staggering 70+ Tory held seats would be in play as lib dem gains. To give an example Chichester 103rd on the liberal democrat list with the current fall in Tory support of around 20% and a rise of 8% for the lib dems would be too close to call.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 25, 2024 21:49:03 GMT
Alex Wickham 'NEW: Rishi Sunak has pledged *mandatory* National Service for *every 18 year old* if he wins the election — they will *have to* do either a year-long army placement or one weekend a month volunteering for a year First ‘bold’ manifesto policy, but it will be highly controversial' Dead cat syndrome, it will never happen even if he was the next P.M...desperate "— they will *have to* do either a year-long army placement or one weekend a month volunteering for a year" - I wonder which most would choose. This is not too dissimilar to what they had in Germany until 2011, with most I think choosing the civil volunteering. There is active discussion currently about bringing it back as it was only put into abeyance. In saying this however it's almost as if Sunak is saying 'I know we're not going to win'. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2024 21:53:50 GMT
The idea we could actually organise the volunteering and that it then wouldn’t cause more disruption in work places than offer anything positive seems most unlikely to me.
(Excuse crap sentence construction)
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 21:59:20 GMT
domjgIf all 770,000 18 year olds chose military service I wonder precisely how the army would manage to.accommodate a 1000% increase in its manpower! It's ludicrous.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 25, 2024 22:05:48 GMT
graham"Labour will have leapfrogged the LDs in scores of seats - indeed jumped from third to first place. Boundary changes further complicate the picture." Maybe but given that the only vote s between general elections have been local elections where the Lib dems have routinely done very well you have nothing other than wishful thinking to substantiate this assumption.
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Post by guymonde on May 25, 2024 22:17:24 GMT
It has been quite heavily chronicled I believe! Just the 20,283 episodes. I’ll be sure to pay more attention to the 20,284th one then pjw. Dave, you are Eddie Grundy, and I claim my £5 |
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Post by guymonde on May 25, 2024 22:21:25 GMT
Alex Wickham 'NEW: Rishi Sunak has pledged *mandatory* National Service for *every 18 year old* if he wins the election — they will *have to* do either a year-long army placement or one weekend a month volunteering for a year First ‘bold’ manifesto policy, but it will be highly controversial' Dead cat syndrome, it will never happen even if he was the next P.M...desperate This strikes me as a pretend policy for pensioners rather than an actual policy for young people I'm 72 and I decided National Service was the kind of thing people of my dad's age thought was a good idea, mainly to get them to get their hair cut (even my dad thought it was nonsense and he'd be 135 now). Yes there will be some pensioners who like the idea |
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Post by guymonde on May 25, 2024 22:26:08 GMT
This strikes me as a pretend policy for pensioners rather than an actual policy for young people It’s a bit like private school where you either joined the corps or did community service stuff. (Well, you had to do the army stuff for two years first* then could opt out) * or was it three years? Might have been three… My school was more conservative. You had to do it for the whole time, then we had a curate who became interested in water divining and a few were let to join the water platoon. Plus we had to go to an army training camp, in my case in Folkestone after I had otherwise left school. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 25, 2024 22:37:00 GMT
domjgIf all 770,000 18 year olds chose military service I wonder precisely how the army would manage to.accommodate a 1000% increase in its manpower! It's ludicrous. As was the case in Germany the vast majority would choose civilian volunteering I suspect. It would be of zero benefit to the army in fact as you point out the exact opposite. It's obviously moot as it's never going to happen even if in some bizarre circumstance the tories did win. |
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Post by EmCat on May 25, 2024 22:38:07 GMT
Alex Wickham 'NEW: Rishi Sunak has pledged *mandatory* National Service for *every 18 year old* if he wins the election — they will *have to* do either a year-long army placement or one weekend a month volunteering for a year First ‘bold’ manifesto policy, but it will be highly controversial' Dead cat syndrome, it will never happen even if he was the next P.M...desperate I'm guessing he's trying to secure the votes of the over 80s, who actually did National Service (the "It didn't do me any harm" brigade) For the Armed Forces, who have prided themselves on being all volunteer since the end of National Service, they may be less keen. And for the (currently 17 year old) who will turn 18 next year when it is somehow envisaged to start, there is the option of doing one weekend per month (25 days) in Fire / Police / NHS. The amount of useful work that can be done on such limited times remains to be seen. www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpddxy9r4mdo |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 25, 2024 22:45:22 GMT
With that poll about younger folk being more inclined to vote, I rather hope that the Conservatives do put National Service in their manifesto.
On the YG poll, it's never sensible to make any judgments on a single crossbreak of 180 in Scotland. Although, if it turned out to be indicative, it wouldn't be surprising to see a squeeze on smaller parties, now that a GE has been announced.
FWIW - not very much! but changes (with a huge moe) over 2 days in brackets
SNP 37% (+6) : SGP 4% (-5)
Lab 34% (=) : LD 7% (=)
Con 13% (-3) : REFUK 2% (=)
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Post by mark61 on May 25, 2024 22:47:55 GMT
Good Lord! The latest Tory proposal for some form of National service for 18 year olds. Day 4 after the Election announced, never hinted at before and presumably the fruits of the PM being closeted with his inner Circle today. One might make the observation that the young did their National service by observing lockdown during a Pandemic to protect the elderly when the Pandemic was of little risk to them, missing out on Education and the fun of teenage years.
Others have pointed out this is aimed at the elderly voter and probably plays well with the Refuk cohort. It's also barking mad, what happens if all 700,000 18 year olds elected to do their bit with the armed forces! we would have to exponentially increase the Forces just to be able to take the youngsters on! Well I hope it motivates the young to register to vote and stick two fingers up to this.
I think there is a distinct possibility that all the wheels may fall off this Tory campaign and we may witness a real disintegration. Six weeks seems like a long time.
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