pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 9, 2023 22:02:37 GMT
I was thinking more Kent, Essex, Lincolnshire. The lands of Ukip and brexit. Kent says hi. Essex says do ya wanna make some fink of it mate. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 9, 2023 22:14:45 GMT
Has anybody heard from Batty today? I’m slightly worried that he has fallen into one of his canals - and they probably wouldn’t pick him up given the speed of those barges. Fear not. I passed through Birmingham today, and I swear I could hear him warbling away in a canal tunnel some distance under my feet. He'll correct me if I'm wrong but I'm sure he was singing 'Keep Right On'. As we journey on, We will sing this song, For the boys in royal blue Though the way be long, Let your heart beat strong, Keep right on to the end, Though you’re tired and weary, Still journey on, ’til you come to your happy abode, |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 9, 2023 22:16:34 GMT
EC predicts Bristol West as Lab 58% Green 31%. Those are the figures in yesterday's 'FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus' MRP seat projection. EC's central seat estimate is a different thing. If you enter their current polling figures as your own prediction, it shows Bristol West as a Green gain from Lab. It looks to me like EC have made a few tweaks to their seat predictor, as it is producing higher LibDem seats, as well as a 2nd Green seat. This may be based on Local Election results, which would be consistent with the Greens doing well in Bristol . Incidentally, if you take current VIs as Lab 45, Con 25, LD 12, Grn 5, Ref 3 and then give 50% tactical voting between Lab, LDs and Greens, EC shows a tie for 2nd place between the Tories and LDs with each taking 51 seats. Lab have 505 and Green 2. So maybe Ed Davey and Suella Braverman taking turns as Leader of the Opposition? EC's seat explorer section gives it as a Green gain without needed to amend anything. The key figures are Green 44.5%, Labour 42.2%; Green 34,020 votes, Labour 32,289 - Green majority 1,731 Another way of looking at it is that it gives the Greens a 57% chance of winning the seat and Labour a 42% chance (difference is rounding). When I was comparing local election results to these projections I found significant differences - not conclusive as local elections and general elections have different voting patterns, but enough to make me take all EC projections with a very large pinch of salt. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Bristol+West |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 9, 2023 22:25:22 GMT
 Spaffer offers his unequivocal support for the current regime team! |
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Post by jen on Aug 9, 2023 22:25:45 GMT
Many thanks for that, ON. I would strongly reccommend the EC blog which you have linked, and the full tables are also available. One detail of these which I think it well worth sharing is the overall VI for Scotland, with a sample of 900 (so close to a full scottish Westminster poll). SNP 40% (-5) SLab 30% (+11) SCon 12% (-13) SLD 8% (-1) S Green 7% (+6) That's a fair bit better for the SNP than most other recent polling, and to my surprise, the SNP to Lab seat movements are more nor less than the 8% swing would suggest. I do think that such a small sample is still not sufficient for good seat projections though, and I guess the same should probably apply for Wales (with a sample of 570). Today Redfield & Wilton have a Scotland poll - SNP 37% Lab 34% Con 17%. In a Westminster GE campaign I could see the SNP and Lab figures being reversed. Why? I get that you dislike the Scots, and in particular campaigners for Scottish freedom, for being, in general, socially progressive. But why would you expect that? |
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Post by mercian on Aug 9, 2023 22:54:50 GMT
crossbat11 It's possible that the Fulton county indictment likely next week will see the traitor where he belongs behind bars before the general election, as these are state law riko felony charges he doesn't get to pardon himself either. The most serious likely charges carry prison terms of up to twenty years. I suspect for all his current bluster, some reality will shortly dawn on Trump as he ponders the possibility of lengthy prison sentences. His flag waving sycophants won't save him from the law and I suspect he'll soon be scurrying around trying to save his skin by whatever legal means still available to him. Hence my suspicion that he won't be the Republican presidential candidate for 2024. We're getting way too far ahead of ourselves fantasising about Trump v Biden. It'll soon be Trump v The Law. Then all bets will be off. If he goes to prison it's not impossible that there will be a second US Civil War, and quite likely to be at least a small armed insurrection. His supporters all have guns and don't seem deterred by laws - e.g. invasion of the Capitol building. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 9, 2023 23:00:08 GMT
I wonder how long he was incarcerated there? |
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Post by lens on Aug 9, 2023 23:06:40 GMT
And now Danny, it's difficult to know if you're being serious or simply arguing for the sake of it. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and try to give a straight answer. I can only assume you have no familarity with compressors at all? I have - albeit for air for scuba use. Don't underestimate the issues involved. As example - www.compressorshop.co.uk/mch6em-icon-lse-100-300-bar-13amp?records_per_page=10 . Which is just about the most basic you can get - but is still nearly £2,000. Energy wise it is quoted at 2.2kW, and to fill a standard 12 litre cylinder takes about 30 minutes and about a kWh of energy. And it requires fairly frequent servicing. And those figures are using it to about 200 bar. To get the full range from your hydrogen car you need it at 700bar. I'll leave it to you to guess how much even a basic compressor capable of hydrogen to that pressure costs, and the energy usage, and I suspect it's unlikely to be able to run from a 13 amp socket. I would imagine petrol stations would be redesigned around an industrial scale compressor. I have no idea how much this might cost at scale, and nor do you. Sure it requires energy to compress gas, but that is true wherever you do it, so would be no worse a problem than if we had fleets of pressurised tankers. Except that the moving about would be done at the much safer low pressure. Tankers would require industrial scale compressors at some central plant anyway. What I mean is, this could be a serious problem with using hydrogen in vehicles, but it doesnt really look more of a problem using a distributed system than giant plants. Danny, actually I do know how much it costs. And can even give you figures. Even links to back it up. For starters try : h2stationmaps.com/costs-and-financing which gives details from California. Obviously there are site to site variations, but $2million is a typical cost for a *small* basic station, with tanker deliveries. It refers to such with a capacity of "average storage of 180 kg/day". So if an average fill was say 4kg (about 2/3 tank for a Mirai) the station will have a capacity of only about 45 cars per day maximum. I'll let you do the figures as to how that compares with a current petrol station, and how much it would cost to provide capacity if all the cars on UK roads did become hydrogen powered. (Hint. It's a lot, and makes figures for rolling out a charging network look trivial in comparison.) If you want another link, try wikipedia - en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_station . Which gives ball park figures of $1-4 million per station. And remember, about 80-90% of BEVcharging happens at home - only 10-20% at public chargers. With hydrogen it would be 100% at filling stations, which worsens the problem. My original reply quoted above was in response to your suggestion about home fuelling with hydrogen - can I take it from your lack of further response and the pivot to "industrial scale compressors" that you're now clear that hydrogen home fuelling is totally unfeasible? Whereas on the other hand you can just get an electrician to lay in a 30 amp cable from your fuse box to a charger - job done. I know which seems the most sensible to me? Oh no. Thats the easy bit, basically adding an extra point to your house. The moderately hard bit is creating a public network of millions of charging points for those who cannot use home charging. The very hard bit is designing those vehicles at an acceptable cost and performance. Which we havnt done yet. I mean, they would have been acceptable if they were on sale in 1920 because they would have far out performed then motoring technology. But in 2023 they have to be acceptable to people accustomed to modern petrol vehicles. It seems that currently there is a wave of people who were enthusiastic about electric but who now are returning to petrol. On the plus side prices seem to be falling, so that may help, but they need to fall an awful lot. And again, that was picking up on your idea of home hydrogen fuelling. There is no "law of physics" which states the latter is impossible - but there are all sorts of reasons which make it hopelessly unrealistic. (Cost, space, safety.....) If you look at the wikipedia link above it does give a ballpark figure for a home station of $325,000 (!!!). Which may be more feasible for a Californian mansion than the average 3 bed UK semi....... Personally, I'll stick with a battery car and a 30 amp cable from the fuse box. As for the words highlighted, then words fail me. Have you even done basic research on the matter? A new Tesla Model 3 (other BEVs are available....) costs around £40,000 at the moment, for a model with over 300 miles of range. With a 0-60mph time of well under 6 seconds. Good enough performance for you? Compare that with a comparable petrol engineed model and the comparison is pretty favourable - for example, a series 3 BMW at a very similar cost price. (But higher running cost per mile.) True, at the moment, BEV competition for cars at the lower end of the price range are much more limited at the moment - but they are coming. Expect matters to be very different in 2 or so years time. (Which is exactly why I am hanging on to my 16 year old diesel at the moment, as long as it doesn't give too much trouble.) But really, what's the alternative? Or are you suggesting everybody just carries on with petrol/diesel, and to hell with climate change and the environment, let alone NOx pollution? Because sure as hell, hydrogen and fuel cell cars aren't going to solve it.
[EDIT - and for everyones benefit, if you have anything else to say on the subject, can I suggest now taking it over to the specialist thread? Thanks.] |
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Post by graham on Aug 9, 2023 23:08:04 GMT
Today Redfield & Wilton have a Scotland poll - SNP 37% Lab 34% Con 17%. In a Westminster GE campaign I could see the SNP and Lab figures being reversed. Why? I get that you dislike the Scots, and in particular campaigners for Scottish freedom, for being, in general, socially progressive. But why would you expect that? Not at all - I am actually fond of the Scots and see them as compatriots rather than foreigners. Psephologically ,however, I suspect that the prospect of Labour being likely to oust the Tories nationally across GB will swing a fair proprtion of recent SNP supporters behind Labour. I also strongly suspect that there has been a significant decline in the salience of Independence as an issue and that the new First Minister will not prove impressive during a GE campaign. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 9, 2023 23:10:05 GMT
In my case as I have said before, it was about sovereignty. If we elect a government with any balls (sorry ladies) we could get out of those treaties if we wanted to. Could we have done from within the EU? Could we bring back the death penalty? Could we export to the USA in their units? And so on. I'm not saying any of these things will happen because nearly all of our politicians are spineless, but the whole point is that they now could happen if the right politicians were elected. The current government could abrogate the treaties requiring us to take refugees. But they are afraid to because the Uk would then drop out of all sorts of international agreements. They understand that this would harm the Uk more than it would help. The same was true of Brexit, it has harmned the Uk more than it has created any freedoms. Conservatves knew this of course, and they spent years trying to find a form of brexit which would compromise and save some of the parts most beneficial to the Uk. but they couldnt, because its a package deal. The package was always to our benefit, but they could find no loophole to allow them to keep it and still claim to have carried out brexit. Brexit happened because it enabled con to become the government. Cameron got his time as PM. May did, Johnson did. To them personally, that was worth the destruction of the UK which has and will result. Cameron led the Remain campaign. May and Johnson just tried to carry out the result of the referendum. Johnson succeeded. In my opinion the Tories under Cameron and before did everything they could to firstly avoid a referendum and secondly to win it for Remain. They were thwarted by the common sense of the British people. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 9, 2023 23:13:26 GMT
colin - "I wonder if the Tony Blair Institute will be the Wagner of Starmers administration. ?" Not sure where that came from, but are you aware that it's actually rather offensive? On your barge post, I've been a bit nonplussed about the fuss over the principle of the barge idea. Aside from the issue of the fire safety standards, which would be unforgivable if the fire service views are accurate, I can't see why it's such a bad idea. We have a lot of migrants who need somewhere safe and warm to stay, and if done properly, a floating accommodation seems like a reasonable option. In the 19th Century we had prison hulks. Is this so different? www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/19th-century-prison-ships/life-board/Actually, the one difference is that unlike the prisoners who were required to work; asylum seekers are not allowed to work. The Government's alternative proposal to Rwanda, Ascension Island, isn't that different to transportation of criminals to Australia in the 19th Century. Those were the days. 😁 |
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Post by graham on Aug 9, 2023 23:16:00 GMT
The current government could abrogate the treaties requiring us to take refugees. But they are afraid to because the Uk would then drop out of all sorts of international agreements. They understand that this would harm the Uk more than it would help. The same was true of Brexit, it has harmned the Uk more than it has created any freedoms. Conservatves knew this of course, and they spent years trying to find a form of brexit which would compromise and save some of the parts most beneficial to the Uk. but they couldnt, because its a package deal. The package was always to our benefit, but they could find no loophole to allow them to keep it and still claim to have carried out brexit. Brexit happened because it enabled con to become the government. Cameron got his time as PM. May did, Johnson did. To them personally, that was worth the destruction of the UK which has and will result. Cameron led the Remain campaign. May and Johnson just tried to carry out the result of the referendum. Johnson succeeded. In my opinion the Tories under Cameron and before did everything they could to firstly avoid a referendum and secondly to win it for Remain. They were thwarted by the common sense of the British people. But the British people were denied the opportunity to vote on specific terms. I suspect that Johnson's terms would have been rejected. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 9, 2023 23:16:01 GMT
Interesting to see that the MRP poll gives Labour a 79% chance of winning Wimbledon. I didn't know they even played tennis! Isn't it a bit of a posh sport? 😁 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2023 23:16:31 GMT
A warm welcome back to Midnight with Mercian folks - keeping you entertained until the small hours in this very boutique.  |
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Post by eor on Aug 9, 2023 23:23:14 GMT
Why? I get that you dislike the Scots, and in particular campaigners for Scottish freedom, for being, in general, socially progressive. But why would you expect that? Not at all - I am actually fond of the Scots and see them as compatriots rather than foreigners. Psephologically ,however, I suspect that the prospect of Labour being likely to oust the Tories nationally across GB will swing a fair proprtion of recent SNP supporters behind Labour. I also strongly suspect that there has been a significant decline in the salience of Independence as an issue and that the new First Minister will not prove impressive during a GE campaign. You may turn out to be right about the FM and/or the salience of independence, but I'm not sure I follow the reasoning on your first point. Given the SNP currently hold almost all the seats SLAB would hope to win, why would voters focused on ousting the Tories at Westminster feel any need exchange their SNP MP for a SLAB one? And secondly to that, given that Labour are consistently 15-20 points ahead in GB polls and have been for ages, why do you think any effect of what you describe is not already reflected in the Scottish polling we're seeing? |
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Post by graham on Aug 9, 2023 23:30:06 GMT
Not at all - I am actually fond of the Scots and see them as compatriots rather than foreigners. Psephologically ,however, I suspect that the prospect of Labour being likely to oust the Tories nationally across GB will swing a fair proprtion of recent SNP supporters behind Labour. I also strongly suspect that there has been a significant decline in the salience of Independence as an issue and that the new First Minister will not prove impressive during a GE campaign. You may turn out to be right about the FM and/or the salience of independence, but I'm not sure I follow the reasoning on your first point. Given the SNP currently hold almost all the seats SLAB would hope to win, why would voters focused on ousting the Tories at Westminster feel any need exchange their SNP MP for a SLAB one? And secondly to that, given that Labour are consistently 15-20 points ahead in GB polls and have been for ages, why do you think any effect of what you describe is not already reflected in the Scottish polling we're seeing? I would expect a Westminster GE campaign to add to the momentum already apparent in Scotland-wide polling. I also recall that back in 2017 Labour's campaign recovery was delayed somewhat relative to England & Wales. My gut feeling is that Scotland will want to ' join in the party' in terms of ousting the Tories - with Labour likely to be seen as the most obvious instrument available to achieve that particularly in the context of recent SNP troubles. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 9, 2023 23:32:22 GMT
On immigration then passing the Illegal Immigration Bill didn't improve the numbers. My inspired guess is that people want to see 'results' and that will take time (and IMO require more measures, notably the #nobrainer of ID cards - possibly one area where LAB HMG will go further on dealing with the issue than CON HMG?) One thing I think could be improved with these sort of polls is why do people disapprove of the record on immigration for instance? Some will disapprove because the government hasn't stopped the boats, while others will disapprove because they are treating immigrants badly. It would be interesting to see percentages for that. |
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Post by eor on Aug 9, 2023 23:33:06 GMT
Something that interested me from the USA is the continued underperformance of maga fascist republicans when it comes to actual votes compared to polling. Ohio Issue 1 subject to a vote on the 8th is an example. If passed, it would have: Required 60% of voters to pass a new constitutional amendment, instead of a simple majority of 50% plus one. Required citizens who want to place an amendment on the ballot to collect signatures from at least 5% of voters from the last gubernatorial election in all 88 counties, instead of the current 44. Eliminated a 10-day cure period that allows citizens to replace any signatures deemed faulty by the secretary of state's office. The purpose of course was to enshrine maga generated law such as removing a women's control of her own body and gerrymandered voting districts in such a way that even a democratic majority in this swing /leaning democrat state couldn't remove it. Polling suggested that the vote would be close with settled opinion probably favouring the passing of issue 1. Reality check time on a remarkably high turnout for this type of election the measure was defeated according to preliminary results by 57% to 43%, with a huge percentage of independents voting against and a unusually high turnout among young voters and women. These issues are going to be on the ticket at the general election and I suspect when push comes to shove put another nail in the traitor's coffin. Not sure where that's come from - whilst the polling was very limited it seems to have been pretty accurate on this one! fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-issue-1-abortion-ballot-measures/"So what are Issue 1’s prospects in Ohio on Tuesday? We don’t have a lot of data, but there are signs that it, too, could be headed for defeat. If you average the three polls of the race that have been released, 35 percent of Ohioans support the 60 percent threshold, 45 percent oppose it and 20 percent aren’t sure." |
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Post by mercian on Aug 9, 2023 23:40:14 GMT
I'm very friendly with a lovely couple who were asylum seekers from Sri Lanka in 2000. They are Tamils and were fleeing persecution during the Civil War. His father and a brother had already been killed. They borrowed £1000 from their family and flew to Heathrow with their parents' blessing. When they arrived they were dispersed to the North East and housed by the council. They were allowed to work and the man got a job at Nissan in Sunderland. His wife was pregnant and gave birth to a daughter. They were learning English and progressing well. Their first application for asylum was rejected (not sure why) and as a result he was no longer allowed to work and just had to sit at home waiting for his appeal. He had a nervous breakdown and ran in front of a car, fortunately it managed to stop. He was sent to a psychiatric hospital and his wife was left at home with a baby. The appeal was successful and they were granted indefinite leave to stay and he could go back to work. Nissan were delighted as he is very intelligent and over qualified for the fill in job he was doing and quickly progressed. 20 years later, he still works at Nissan, his wife trained as a nursery nurse. They gained British citizenship about 10 years ago. They have bought a house and their daughter is in her 3rd year at university studying medical biosciences. In all the years I have known them the husband has never and will not speak about what happened to them in Sri Lanka. He is still affected by the memory of it all. Had they arrived here now they would likely have been separated and spent 2+ years in detention and in most likelihood the man would have committed suicide as there would be no mental health support for them. And they are nothing but an asset to the country and a credit to themselves. The rhetoric and the using real people's tragedies to wind people up and look for votes to stay in power is shameful, shameful stuff. Great heartwarming story until you spoilt with your last two paragraphs of idle speculation. We get a lot of that on this site. "The Tories would most likely do this...". " If this happened then the Tories would..." and so on. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 9, 2023 23:42:18 GMT
Any place you are forced to go back to every evening surely has at least the “feel” of a prison? Aaah, you mean 'home'. I totally agree. 😁 |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 9, 2023 23:51:40 GMT
On immigration then passing the Illegal Immigration Bill didn't improve the numbers. My inspired guess is that people want to see 'results' and that will take time (and IMO require more measures, notably the #nobrainer of ID cards - possibly one area where LAB HMG will go further on dealing with the issue than CON HMG?) One thing I think could be improved with these sort of polls is why do people disapprove of the record on immigration for instance? Some will disapprove because the government hasn't stopped the boats, while others will disapprove because they are treating immigrants badly. It would be interesting to see percentages for that. There is various other polling on immigration available. I tend to post the more detailed ones on the Issue Specific thread. Page 2 of the below link is fairly detailed breakdown of 'why' people think HMG is handling immigration badly but is now 9mths old: docs.cdn.yougov.com/jlpec6prvv/Internal_Immigration_221102.pdfCON'19 x-break, top 3 (in a pick all that apply): Failure to stop migrants crossing the channel: 79% (with overall at 52%)The Government has not taken a firm enough stance on illegal immigration: 74% Immigration numbers are too high: 62% LAB'19 x-break, top 3 (in a pick all that apply): I don't have faith in the Government to handle anything: 67% racist*: 56% The Government has failed to provide adequate support to migrants who cross the channel from France: 56% (with overall at 30%)They did offer the option of "More migrants are needed to fill jobs / ease supply shortages" and that received 24% overall (10% with CON'19 and 45% with LAB'19) Whilst CON and LAB have very similar policies to 'Stop the boats' then there is a significant difference in the polling x-breaks as the above shows. The top pick for LAB is pure partisan bias, the second pick is the 'lazy' one-word option that many on UKPR2 seem to default to and the third is unfunded at a time when LAB are saying "there is no money left" and we have huge homelessness and social housing crisis already in UK. * Has anyone on UKPR2 actually found a post of yours that was actually 'racist'? PS On Alcatraz then "The prison closed in 1963, and the island is now a major tourist attraction".en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatraz_Island |
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Post by mercian on Aug 10, 2023 0:00:20 GMT
I worked in the NHS at the end of my so-called career, so I did have to endure all that cr*p. 🤣 As well as stuff like 'Manual Handling' when all I ever lifted was a computer mouse. Complete waste of time. There was one amusing anecdote came out of it, but I'm aware I'm already making too many posts. Things like manual handling training for office workers aren't really about teaching you anything but to protect the employer from being sued. If a trained worker picks a box up in the wrong way and injures themselves its their fault but if they haven't been trained then its the employer's (I simplify to make the point, of course. In reality it's more complex than that). Ok, well it seems you've asked for the anecdote, or at least that's how I choose to interpret your post. 🙂 The last Manual Handling course I did was taught by a chap who knew his stuff and was good on how to lift things and so on. Towards the end for some reason he came round and put his hand on everyone's lower back in turn and told us to move our lower back backwards and forwards. It was a mixed group of various ages and when we'd all done this he said that being able to do this well was a good thing for Manual Handling (can't remember why) and that being good at it was usually a sign that a person did horse-riding or some other sporting activity. He singled me out as the best in the group despite being the oldest and asked me what sports I did. I said 'None'. He pursued it and asked several follow-up questions but eventually gave up. After we broke up and were walking back to some other building he fell in step with me and said "Are you sure you can't think of any reason why you could do that so well?" I pondered a bit and eventually said "Well I did used to be quite good at sex." 👍🤣 |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 10, 2023 0:01:57 GMT
Electoral Calculus giving Greens Bristol West. That's according to Stats for lefties (full disclosure- now a Green member) who is saying it is this one although I can't find individual seat projections, but EC does give a second Green seat as their central prediction and and this is the Greens top target. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlNot sure what this is based on (perhaps local results in the mix) and personally I'd only be expecting a much reduced Lab majority with Greens looking to take it at the following General Election. Greens were a quite close 2nd in 2015 but then went backwards because of the Corbyn effect and a massive Lab majority in 2017 & 2019 but it is quite a volatile seat (bit like Sheffield Hallam in some respects) and the huge Lab majority there at present is misleading. EC's link for that specific seat. Note it is 'Strong Left': "Bristol West ranks #650 for "Leave", #577 for "Economic Right Position", #650 for "National Position" and #649 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats " with a young average age (38.6yrs) Note: "The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative)" I'm not saying their prediction is accurate but given it is one of the most Far Left seats in UK then fair to say it is more likely to lean towards the most Far Left option. TBC how many Greens who used to 'lend their vote' to LAB will do so in GE'24 but given how far Starmer has shifted LAB to the 'Right'/Climate Delay/anti-immigration/anti-woke then it's not surprising EC will shift the most left wing seats more to Green that other 'safe LAB' seats. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Bristol%20West |
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Post by mercian on Aug 10, 2023 0:02:44 GMT
barbara Indeed There are plenty of inmates at Ford who go to work every day, most within the prison estate but others are day released to work. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. But We're treating convicted criminals with more respect than displayed to asylum seekers.The vast majority if able want to work, we need the workers but leeanderthal wants them to fuck off to France instead! And treating the asylum seekers vastly better than the poor souls sleeping on the streets. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 10, 2023 0:14:27 GMT
In the 19th Century we had prison hulks. Is this so different? www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/19th-century-prison-ships/life-board/Actually, the one difference is that unlike the prisoners who were required to work; asylum seekers are not allowed to work. The Government's alternative proposal to Rwanda, Ascension Island, isn't that different to transportation of criminals to Australia in the 19th Century. Those were the days. 😁 We also have cruise ships (Floating hotels - 'Flotels') but they tend to move from port to port, although people are expected to return to the ship. I don't think many of the descendants of those who were moved to Australia are complaining about living in Australia - perhaps the same thing with Rwanda in a few decades time (as IIRC the repeat of the Ascension Island 'kite flying' exercise was considered a non-starter) There is a valid case to have the asylum seekers work and pay towards their board and lodging - rather than have taxpayers fund the whole cost. IIRC there was some rare agreement on that amongst various people on UKPR2. It wouldn't be 'chain gangs' as modern tech means it is possible to monitor the 'where abouts' of people (although we're not currently using that tech - we could and IMO should) NB WRT to the false claim about 'forced' to return each night then note "There is no curfew and residents are free to come and go"IIRC the free buses stop running at 11pm, which is a later service than a lot of buses that working people have to pay for, see: "The Home Office has paid for bus services to take barge residents to nearby Weymouth for access to local services". Worst case they can walk back home to their bed after 11pm. news.sky.com/story/who-will-be-living-on-the-bibby-stockholm-and-whats-it-like-on-board-the-barge-12922759 |
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Post by mercian on Aug 10, 2023 0:21:54 GMT
Without referencing mercian specifically, a good rule of life these days is that if you don't challenge racism (and sexism, homophobia, transphobia, etc.) when you see or hear them, then you are effectively condoning those views. It is lack of challenge that allows bigotry to grow and prosper. So I will carry on doing so - but hopefully in a constructive manner to the best of my ability. Good luck with that. I only joined the site to call out an obvious bigot. I got told I was out of order because he was always polite. Nevertheless, I agree with you, and I hope every fucking nazi shit traitor gets what's coming to them. How nice to see that you've returned. Welcome back. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 10, 2023 0:22:37 GMT
You may turn out to be right about the FM and/or the salience of independence, but I'm not sure I follow the reasoning on your first point. Given the SNP currently hold almost all the seats SLAB would hope to win, why would voters focused on ousting the Tories at Westminster feel any need exchange their SNP MP for a SLAB one? And secondly to that, given that Labour are consistently 15-20 points ahead in GB polls and have been for ages, why do you think any effect of what you describe is not already reflected in the Scottish polling we're seeing? I would expect a Westminster GE campaign to add to the momentum already apparent in Scotland-wide polling. I also recall that back in 2017 Labour's campaign recovery was delayed somewhat relative to England & Wales. My gut feeling is that Scotland will want to ' join in the party' in terms of ousting the Tories - with Labour likely to be seen as the most obvious instrument available to achieve that particularly in the context of recent SNP troubles.
Incidentally, it would be more accurate to say that voters in England have now decided to "join the party" that we have been having since the 1960s in rejecting Conservative governments. They have been very slow to show up at the ceilidh, and even now are reluctant to join in, unless the alternative government (that they insist on applying across rUK) is both centralist and centre right.
That Unionist voters tend to tactically vote for the dominant one of their parties is undoubtedly true. Every Scottish constituency is essentially a contest between the SNP and the appropriate Unionist party there. The only places where there is a contest between the Unionist parties is in places like Ayr, where Con, & Lab compete for 2nd place. In most constituencies Unionist voters already cast their votes tactically for the strongest of their parties, while (despite its problems - some self-inflicted), the SNP remains the dominant pro-indy party (though that doesn't always fill me with enthusiasm!).
The intriguing question, when it comes to a Westminster GE, is whether sufficient of those who move their votes between SNP and Lab think their interests will be best served by sending a Lab or an SNP MP to Westminster. Do they want their MP to vote for decisions made in Downing St that don't suit Scotland, or to oppose them? With the number of marginal constituencies in Scotland, that choice will be made by a relatively small number of individuals.
It is already clear what the narratives will be in the Westminster GE in Scotland. Since the opposition to Con is so massive, neither SNP nor Lab can gain any more from that. Labour will campaign in Westminster seats on Holyrood issues, maximising that advantage. SNP will campaign on the basis that a Starmer led Labour government won't be much different from the Tory ones at Westminster that we have opposed for the last 60+ years. Which (if either) narrative has the greatest cut through will determine Scots representation in the HoC that Starmer will be the PM in. |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 10, 2023 0:30:04 GMT
barbara Indeed There are plenty of inmates at Ford who go to work every day, most within the prison estate but others are day released to work. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. But We're treating convicted criminals with more respect than displayed to asylum seekers.The vast majority if able want to work, we need the workers but leeanderthal wants them to fuck off to France instead! And treating the asylum seekers vastly better than the poor souls sleeping on the streets. IMO there is a valid case to be made that we're treating convicted criminals with more luxury than they deserve but given the Bibby Stockholm is not a prison then I've no idea why that is relevant. France said "non" to a returns policy (not that Cooper seems to have noticed) so Anderson was wrong to mention they should return to France. He should have said they should stay in a safe country (like France) rather than pay a criminal gang to make the dangerous journey across the Channel. After yet another tragedy in the Med then we clearly need to reduce the 'Pull' factors to UK and do everything possible to 'Stop the Boats' including pulling out of the ECHR if, but only if/when, it comes to that. Given most of the Council of Europe countries have a similar 'immigration' problem then it is still my hope that by the time Rwanda scheme gets to ECtHR some broader agreement about '3rd countries' has clarified the legality of schemes like Rwanda. Two simple questions for anyone who thinks accommodation like Bibby Stockholm is not acceptable: 1/ Where do they think asylum seekers should be housed - stating the available places, cost and 'support' for their suggestion (and noting the issue of homelessness and lack of social housing effecting many British citizens) 2/ How many 'illegal immigrants' (ie those paying criminal gangs to enter on a small boat crossing he channel) should we let in? (noting there are other schemes and that those paying criminal gangs are 'queue jumping') Far too early to say if the Illegal Immigration Act is a deterrent as the recent weather hasn't been suitable for the criminal gangs. Numbers have dropped but it is possible 'weather' related. www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-daysStill a long way from 'Stop' (ie zero) though. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 10, 2023 0:33:36 GMT
* Has anyone on UKPR2 actually found a post of yours that was actually 'racist'? Not that they've said. However their definitions of the word may differ from mine. I won't go into detail. I'd appreciate it if we let this dog lie. There will never be agreement and it makes Mark's life difficult. They can think what they like, but of course they will be wrong. |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 10, 2023 1:17:00 GMT
mercian . I'll repost Mark 's post from a few days ago. I appreciate you don't mind but 'rules are rules' (or not). Rule2 states: "2. No flaming or trolling other users. We understand that political discussion can be passionate at times, but, please keep it polite. When there are differences of opinion, argue the point, not the member posting it. Once again, offenders will be warned, repeat offenders will be kicked"
ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/thread/5/general-rules-post-readIf the rules are not being applied then 'fair enough'. I have no problem with a 'free for all' and even set up a separate thread to allow a 'free for all' to keep the flaming/trolling off the main thread. I received a (temporary) ban for that and that thread was deleted. So is it a 'free for all' where the rules are not applied to anyone? Are the rules waived for certain people - possibly due to their political bias? I dunno, we're left to guess. However, if no one has substantiated their claims that you are a 'racist' then have those people at least been warned (and possibly not for the first time)? Are some people still calling you a racist? I'm merely seeking clarity. I don't mind a 'free for all' approach. I have also suggested we start a new general thread with a 'clean slate' for all (and appreciate that didn't work when I tried that before* - but then perhaps that failed because I started the new general thread?) * ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/81048/thread*** ADMIN *** Let's clear a few things up. Nobody has been banned from here. I pointed out that challenging someone on their views/posts is perfectly acceptable. In terms of Mercian's views, several have done so and that is fine.
I also pointed out that simply calling him (or anyone else) a name without referencing his posts/views amounts to flaming.It really is that simple.
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