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Post by Mark on Jul 16, 2023 12:04:59 GMT
A long overdue new polling thread, just in time for by-election day.
The thread title features Reform rather than Green as they are the 4th largest party in this poll (the Greens just 1% behind on 5%).
The cutoff is usually the 4 largest parties as (1) it is just a summary/title, so listing more/all would be cumbersome. The top 4 is not set in stone but, is a sweet spot. Also (2) the length of a thread title is finite. Listing all parties would not be possible, especially if drillig down into minor parties that get 2% or lower.
Now that's out of the way...
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 46% (-1)
CON: 26% (-)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
REF: 6% (-)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @techneuk, 12 - 13 Jul
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Post by Mark on Jul 16, 2023 12:10:37 GMT
One thing, I asked previously if we would rather have a separate thread for the by-election results or keep it on the current main polling thread.
The consensus, by a large margin, was that any posts re-the by-eection results were kept on the main polling thread (IE this one).
I ask that, come Thursday, to avoid confusion, that members honour this.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 16, 2023 12:57:35 GMT
A long overdue new polling thread, just in time for by-election day. The thread title features Reform rather than Green as they are the 4th largest party in this poll (the Greens just 1% behind on 5%). The cutoff is usually the 4 largest parties as (1) it is just a summary/title, so listing more/all would be cumbersome. The top 4 is not set in stone but, is a sweet spot. Also (2) the length of a thread title is finite. Listing all parties would not be possible, especially if drillig down into minor parties that get 2% or lower. Now that's out of the way... Westminster voting intention: LAB: 46% (-1) CON: 26% (-) LDEM: 11% (+1) REF: 6% (-) GRN: 5% (-) via @techneuk, 12 - 13 Jul Because some people tend to get excited about changes in Party VI in individual polls, here is smoothed VI for the two main parties for TechneUK polling since the beginning of 2023. The Tories' support peaked between the middle of March and end of April 2023, while Labour has returned recently to mid-March levels after a few months of declining VI. This timescale covers 28 polls by this pollster. |
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Post by pete on Jul 16, 2023 15:48:29 GMT
Why is the new thread not being used?
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Post by pete on Jul 16, 2023 15:51:08 GMT
mercian
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about an hour ago QuotelikePost OptionsPost by mercian on about an hour ago
steve Avatar
8 hours ago steve said:
mercian
" will of the people" really?
youtu.be/xmnvF--MOjU
Biggest popular vote for anything in the history of the country. It's as close to the will of the people as you're going to get. Over 17 million votes. In 1997 Blair got 13.5 million and that was widely seen as a massive vote.
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, not the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable
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The will of the people has changed.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 16, 2023 16:27:02 GMT
pete It was only ever the will of 29% of the population with six million European union adult residents in the UK or non resident UK citizens excluded. I suspect it would be less than 20% now.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 16, 2023 16:29:21 GMT
mercianIt was ten million short of a majority of the adult population no where close.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 16, 2023 16:31:39 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 16, 2023 16:48:24 GMT
Brexitanians where £2 billion over ten years morphed into £12 Trillion, did they lose the other eleven thousand nine hundred and ninety eight billion down the back of the sofa. Pitiful weapons grade staw clutching .I youtu.be/6xUpkLJ1Meo |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 16, 2023 17:05:33 GMT
ISW say another Russian general has been replaced for complaining his men are not getting relief or supplies.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 16, 2023 17:09:11 GMT
There is a CH4 repeat about the great plague now on , which seems to pin the spread on human fleas and lice.
However interestingly they were just looking at some hospital records, where the hospital refused to admit incurable people and was trying hard to prevent people with plague entering.
This is precisely the approach we needed in care homes in the Uk and elsewhere with covid. Shame we did the opposite. Thus leading to the huge proportion of deaths entirely within care homes.
Authorities issued certificates of health to people wanting to travel (and indeed flee the city). Readers may remember we nearly did the same when it was suggested we should issue antibody certificates to people who had them.
You may also remember that households where a case was found were sealed. Its also the case that people stopped working because most businesses closed. People stayed home voluntarily if they could. You could say that was rather similar to what we did, but frankly totally failed back then too.
From memmeory probably about 1/3 of the population died. Thats a real epidemic.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 16, 2023 21:27:59 GMT
mercian Member mercian Avatar Posts: 4,077 about an hour ago QuotelikePost OptionsPost by mercian on about an hour ago steve Avatar 8 hours ago steve said: mercian " will of the people" really? youtu.be/xmnvF--MOjU Biggest popular vote for anything in the history of the country. It's as close to the will of the people as you're going to get. Over 17 million votes. In 1997 Blair got 13.5 million and that was widely seen as a massive vote. It is not the strongest of the species that survives, not the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable -------------- The will of the people has changed. There was never a will of the people in the first place just the disgruntled and the misinformed wanting to lash out, mixed with a relatively small number who'd actually thought about their choice, voting leave for myriad reasons. |
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Post by alec on Jul 16, 2023 21:42:07 GMT
Shaun Lintern has always been ahead of the game in reporting the realities of covid, and he's nailed one here -
Very few commentators appear to understand that one of the main sets of symptoms triggered by post-covid syndrome are the neurological symptoms, and two of the leading illnesses are anxiety and depression. In this case, the husband believes his wife's psychosis was triggered by covid. Given the measured impacts on the brain, this is by no means unlikely.
It's also worth remembering this when looking at figures like the school absentee rates. Very often, commentators point to the high number of mental health issues as an alternative to covid related absences, without realising that studies show the development of new onset mental health conditions is one of the most common symptoms of covid in children.
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Post by steve on Jul 16, 2023 21:48:32 GMT
alecLintern may or may not be right, but it's wise not to give him too much authority. He's a journalist he's not a health professional.
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Post by domjg on Jul 16, 2023 21:56:06 GMT
This is interesting in light of recent discussions on age demographics. In 1990 most of the world except the West and China was dominated by the young. By 2050 only Africa still will be to any great extent and most developed countries will be heavily skewed towards the old. Even in Kenya the birthrate today is only 3 children per woman whereas it was 8 fifty years ago. There really is no need to exhort people to reproduce less in most of the world and certainly not in the developed world: "How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World" www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/16/world/world-demographics.html?smid=nytcore-android-share |
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Post by domjg on Jul 16, 2023 22:01:26 GMT
Shaun Lintern has always been ahead of the game in reporting the realities of covid, and he's nailed one here - Very few commentators appear to understand that one of the main sets of symptoms triggered by post-covid syndrome are the neurological symptoms, and two of the leading illnesses are anxiety and depression. In this case, the husband believes his wife's psychosis was triggered by covid. Given the measured impacts on the brain, this is by no means unlikely. It's also worth remembering this when looking at figures like the school absentee rates. Very often, commentators point to the high number of mental health issues as an alternative to covid related absences, without realising that studies show the development of new onset mental health conditions is one of the most common symptoms of covid in children. You're not doing yourself any favours by trying to link literally anything that can happen to someone to Covid. It just comes across as obsessional and induces an eye roll more often than not I imagine. It's too much. Personally I see no first hand evidence of unusual school absences nor do I hear of any from the many parents I know with children across school years in multiple schools. |
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Post by Danny on Jul 16, 2023 23:15:51 GMT
It's also worth remembering this when looking at figures like the school absentee rates. Very often, commentators point to the high number of mental health issues as an alternative to covid related absences, without realising that studies show the development of new onset mental health conditions is one of the most common symptoms of covid in children. The recent R4 analysis blamed increased absences on more parents working at home so more willing to let their child stay home if ill insted of sending hime to school to snuffle there. More parents in dispute with local authority about special needs of their kids and simply refusing to send them because these arent being met. Either because the teaching is pointless, or they fear their child will come to harm. What you have to realise is that state education has been dismantled and privatised. And in the process standards are dropping steadily. The companies deliver what the state is willing to pay for, and that certainly isnt spending a lot on the outliers who need more attention. If you want to force a local authority to spend money on your kid, expect to spend the next 5 years, well the whole of the kids school career, in court. They will happily let you quietly not attend. Personally I see no first hand evidence of unusual school absences nor do I hear of any from the many parents I know with children across school years in multiple schools. R4 did also observe it varies quite a bit depending on the family background, and experiecne suggests based on the nature of the catchment area, schools can have very different experiences. All we are getting here are national figures, not as it were a constituency breakdown. |
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Post by pete on Jul 17, 2023 6:21:36 GMT
One for Alec
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 17, 2023 6:36:23 GMT
Zoe estimate about 600,000 people with covid symptoms currently. Which is indeed a bit of a fall on the average for the last two years which has been about 1,500,000 concurrent people with symptoms. This time a year ago there was a peak of 2 million, so yes, the oscillating but always present value is on a downwards trend. That may be good news, if covid is moving back to a traditional pattern of winter outbreaks instead of all year round , but rather too early to tell. However half a million concurrent cases is hardly negligible and still pretty much the exact opposite of what the vaccination campaign was hoped to create, which has been permanent disease instead of no disease. covid-webflow.joinzoe.com/dataOverlaying the hospital admissions data in the tweet with zoe community prevalence data suggests about 500 admissions a day corresponding to about 600,000 symptomatic community cases. The NHS had about 17 million admissions in 2019 (ie before covid) so about 46,000 a day. That makes covid admissions about 1%. Whereas 600,000 out of 60 million people is about 0.1%. Covid is x10 more common inside hospitals than in the community. And yes, I expect most of those cases were caught inside hospital. Looking for those figures about admissions I found the 17 million admissions in 2019 was in fact a peak which had risen steadily from about 11 million in 2000. Although the rate of increase approximately halved from 2010, when con took over control of the NHS and reduced annual funding increases. 2020 saw total admissions drop to 13 million, which considering there really were a lot of serious covid cases that year maybe means some 5 million people went untreated who would otherwise have been. 2021 saw only 16 million admission, which was the lowest since 2014. www.statista.com/statistics/984239/england-nhs-hospital-admissions/Or put that another way, had labour remained in power from 2010 it seems likely the NHS would now be admitting (and therefore presumably treating) about 2 million more people every year. Which sounds like enought to not have much in the way of waiting lists. Vote con, wait for treatment.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 17, 2023 7:23:12 GMT
Interesting case in point in the news about endlessly rising NHS demand. Its a good news story about a new anti altzheimers drug. But to use it you will first have to agree the price for what will be a very expensive drug. Then you need to create a whole screening program to identify altzheimers patients earlier so they might benefit from the drug. Then you have to body scan the patients taking the drugs regularly because of potential serious brain side effects. So you need more scanners, plus regular extra work for the NHS.
Is all that going to be paid for by sacking some doctors doing other things, stopping screening for something else, continuing to not build the 40 new hospitals also mentioned in the news today and repeatedly promised by government which do not actually exist?
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Post by alec on Jul 17, 2023 7:23:50 GMT
@donjg - "You're not doing yourself any favours by trying to link literally anything that can happen to someone to Covid. It just comes across as obsessional and induces an eye roll more often than not I imagine. It's too much. Personally I see no first hand evidence of unusual school absences nor do I hear of any from the many parents I know with children across school years in multiple schools."
Indeed. That's why this site is dedicated to looking at statistical evidence, not anecdote. You are completely wrong; school absences are at record levels, as are teacher absences, and sickness is the primary cause of that. Metal health conditions are known to be one of the most common longer term impacts of covid, which is unsurprising, as Sars-Cov2 is known to infect the brain and fuses neurons together, in a similar way to early stage dementia, which is marked by an increase in anxiety and depression, two of the main symptoms post covid.
I'm sorry if you don't like the evidence, but that's something only you can address. I'll keep posting the science, with a few human examples of how this translates into personal experience. It's up to you whether you choose to accept what the science is telling us, or to persist in hiding behind ignorance and anecdote.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 17, 2023 7:31:52 GMT
. I'll keep posting the science, with a few human examples of how this translates into personal experience. It's up to you whether you choose to accept what the science is telling us, or to persist in hiding behind ignorance and anecdote. The science says a few people have been affected with diseases which correlate with having covid. That may be correlation and not causation, because its also already sick people who get recorded with serious covid. And its still only a few people. If it was more than that we wouldnt be arguing about statistical anomalies but real people in beds. Covid is now down to the level of a nuisance complicating being ill with something else at the same time, like flu. Thats not to say it isnt serious if you are already pretty ill, and that type of illness has always killed thousands every year. We just never made a fuss about it. The generally accepted reason why more kids are not attending school now is parental attitudes changed by covid, making them more willing to allow kids to stay home. But again, this has been a long term rising trend related to various cuts in services to persuade them to send their kids more. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 8:01:39 GMT
There was never a will of the people in the first place just the disgruntled and the misinformed wanting to lash out, mixed with a relatively small number who'd actually thought about their choice, voting leave for myriad reasons. Fortunately we don't need to rely on your prejudices. Someone actually asked twelve thousand people why they voted as they did then :- lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/ |
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Post by alec on Jul 17, 2023 8:01:52 GMT
Danny - "Whereas 600,000 out of 60 million people is about 0.1%. Covid is x10 more common inside hospitals than in the community. And yes, I expect most of those cases were caught inside hospital." We can all see why you struggle with data, but you really shouldn't keep parading your ignorance. Check. Your. Numbers.
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Post by wb61 on Jul 17, 2023 8:15:08 GMT
You're not doing yourself any favours by trying to link literally anything that can happen to someone to Covid. It just comes across as obsessional and induces an eye roll more often than not I imagine. It's too much. Personally I see no first hand evidence of unusual school absences nor do I hear of any from the many parents I know with children across school years in multiple schools. I have been scrolling past Danny and Alec's posts for months now, it's a pity because, occasionally, they each have said some interesting things in the past. I just got completely turned off by the interminable and arid COVID arguments. I see something similar in my day job, a party becomes obsessed with a legal case they are bringing and completely lose sight of anything else. |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 17, 2023 8:26:39 GMT
Hi wb61 . I think it is even worse than that for me, it has infected my whole relationship to the site. I don't really want to post very much anymore, if there weren't three by-elections this week, I doubt I would even be checking it. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 17, 2023 8:34:22 GMT
colin Ashcroft polled people shortly after the vote. Do you think some will have changed their minds after realising they were lied to? Current polling suggests around 25% of brexitanians have , there hasn't been any significant indication that those who voted remain have thought their decision wrong, some have accepted the result, that doesn't mean they agree with it. You appear to assign more importance to the opinions expressed seven years ago when millions have subsequently changed their minds and millions of brexit voters because of the age related propensity to vote leave have died. There's of course a massive disparity between the Brexit position of most of the people who died and the now 18-25 age cohort who were prevented from expressing their opinion in 2016 by virtue of age. These aren't contestable facts it's demographics. It's a bizarre interpretation of democracy where the vote of the dead is interpreted as representing the " will of the people" while the views of the living isn't.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 17, 2023 8:42:24 GMT
mandolinistI try to limit my interactions on covid posts to fact checking the assertions. To be honest I'm not sure why I bother it clearly makes no difference to the tone and frequency of the postings.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 17, 2023 8:50:24 GMT
"Case for abolishing two-child benefit cap ‘overwhelming’, says Nuffield report."
It makes no difference for multi millionaires such as Jacob Rees Mogg and his six children or Spaffer with his indeterminate number ( around 10?) . But for people on low income it's the difference between heating and eating.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 17, 2023 9:00:11 GMT
A thought for those within the Labour movement who are particularly critical of Starmer.
The country is going to be on its knees economically and structurally when Starmer takes over, hopefully with the needed support of the liberal democrats.
There is no magic wand he can wave to fix things overnight. It's going to take at least 10 years to recover from this mess. So we can't expect everything we don't like to go into the plan for week 1 of the new government.
That doesn't of course mean he has to try to out Tory the Tories.
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