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Post by hireton on Aug 9, 2023 18:49:14 GMT
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Post by James E on Aug 9, 2023 18:58:04 GMT
The tories will be lucky to keep any seats in Scotland
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mrppoll_20230809.html
Whether they are accurate or not in individual seat predictions on current VI or not, they are probably reasonably correct that lots (22) of the seats will be marginal (<5% between winner and runner up), while around the same number (23) will be relatively safe (>10% winning margin).
Of the current Con seats, 3 are predicted to go SNP -
Moray by 5.9%
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine by 5.2%
Dumfries and Galloway by 3.4%
while Con would cling on in 3 -
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk by 2.4%
Banff and Buchan by 2.3%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale by 0.6%
(though with a Lab VI in these three of 19%, 17% and 22% respectively and SGP VI of 4% in each, one might reasonably expect sufficient extra votes to go SNP to defenestrate Con - again).
In the SNP/Lab contests, there are 7 of the 12 Lab gains predicted to be by less than 5% (Glasgow Central by only 0.1%), while 9 of the SNP retentions also have a predicted margin of <5%.
I wouldn't want to risk any cash on predicting the eventual seat numbers per party!Many thanks for that, ON. I would strongly reccommend the EC blog which you have linked, and the full tables are also available. One detail of these which I think it well worth sharing is the overall VI for Scotland, with a sample of 900 (so close to a full scottish Westminster poll). SNP 40% (-5) SLab 30% (+11) SCon 12% (-13) SLD 8% (-1) S Green 7% (+6) That's a fair bit better for the SNP than most other recent polling, and to my surprise, the SNP to Lab seat movements are more nor less than the 8% swing would suggest. I do think that such a small sample is still not sufficient for good seat projections though, and I guess the same should probably apply for Wales (with a sample of 570). |
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 9, 2023 19:13:20 GMT
I had a look at the Scots seats in the Electoral Calculus tables on the FON poll.
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mrppoll_20230809.html
Whether they are accurate or not in individual seat predictions on current VI or not, they are probably reasonably correct that lots (22) of the seats will be marginal (<5% between winner and runner up), while around the same number (23) will be relatively safe (>10% winning margin).
Of the current Con seats, 3 are predicted to go SNP -
Moray by 5.9%
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine by 5.2%
Dumfries and Galloway by 3.4%
while Con would cling on in 3 -
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk by 2.4%
Banff and Buchan by 2.3%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale by 0.6%
(though with a Lab VI in these three of 19%, 17% and 22% respectively and SGP VI of 4% in each, one might reasonably expect sufficient extra votes to go SNP to defenestrate Con - again).
In the SNP/Lab contests, there are 7 of the 12 Lab gains predicted to be by less than 5% (Glasgow Central by only 0.1%), while 9 of the SNP retentions also have a predicted margin of <5%.
I wouldn't want to risk any cash on predicting the eventual seat numbers per party! Many thanks for that, ON. I would strongly reccommend the EC blog which you have linked, and the full tables are also available. One detail of these which I think it well worth sharing is the overall VI for Scotland, with a sample of 900 (so close to a full scottish Westminster poll). SNP 40% (-5) SLab 30% (+11) SCon 12% (-13) SLD 8% (-1) S Green 7% (+6) That's a fair bit better for the SNP than most other recent polling, and to my surprise, the SNP to Lab seat movements are more nor less than the 8% swing would suggest. I do think that such a small sample is still not sufficient for good seat projections though, and I guess the same should probably apply for Wales (with a sample of 570). Today Redfield & Wilton have a Scotland poll - SNP 37% Lab 34% Con 17%. In a Westminster GE campaign I could see the SNP and Lab figures being reversed. |
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Post by Rafwan on Aug 9, 2023 19:30:35 GMT
@steviebell I really don't want to pursue this, as it must be annoying for Mark apart from anything else. I will just say that your deductions about me and my history are incorrect and that there are Muslim sects such as Salafism and Wahhabism which are international in scope and have some beliefs and practices which antithetical to western civilisation. To pretend otherwise is self-delusion in the name of liberalism(?) which verges on the suicidal. This does not mean I hate all brown people or any such nonsense any more than domjg hates all cretins because he used it as a term of abuse. Can we just leave it at that? I was reaching for a benign explanation for your unfortunate posts. My remarks were clumsy and clearly quite wrong. Many apologies. It seems, after all, your posts are fuelled entirely by unalloyed, politically-driven racism. No wonder you want this off the front page where all can see your vacuous justifications. You do appear to have one ‘unaligned’ supporter. Unfortunately, he offers no explanation for his endorsement, but merely dresses his comments in sniffy allusions about your detractors (e.g. me). Pity. It would be good to get his reasoning out in the opening. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 9, 2023 19:32:42 GMT
How do I place a photo on my avatar? Please write s l o w l y as I am a musician not an iPad genius. Gracias El EPC. To complete the process, make sure you send me my gift. You really want a used plectrum from his banjo?  |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2023 19:40:28 GMT
@rafwan
Thanks for going to the trouble of writing all that. My photos are held in google photos so the first thing I have to do is find a suitable photo and then move it to the iPad library. Is that right? And will I need a stepladder for the library or is it magic?
If you confirm that is correct then I will do - what I like to call - “my best”. (Then, apres le fail, I shall phone a friend who is not a lost cause.)
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2023 19:46:19 GMT
Has anybody heard from Batty today? I’m slightly worried that he has fallen into one of his canals - and they probably wouldn’t pick him up given the speed of those barges.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 9, 2023 19:49:37 GMT
Tomorrow's local government by-elections
HAVERING LBC; Upminster (Resident Association died)
Candidates:
CLARKE, Thomas Patrick (Liberal Democrat)
COLLINS, Melanie Jane (Green)
DURANT, David Warren (Independent)
GREEN, Edward Andrew (Conservative) - currently suspended from the party, see below
SULLIVAN, John Gregory (Labour)
WILLIAMS, Jacqueline Ann (Upminster & Cranham Residents Association)
2022: UCRA 3028, 2954, 2930; Con 953, 711, 584; Lab 453, 419, 362; Grn 362
The UCRA candidate will be clear favorites to hold the seat. The Conservative candidate was suspended from the party after nomination due to highly Islamophobic Facebook (aka Meta) posts coming to light.
SOMERSET UA; Castle Cary (Con died)
Candidates:
HALL, David (Conservative)
JONES, Ewan William George (Green)
MESSENGER, Kevin (Liberal Democrat)
2022: LD 1618 (elected), 1231; Con 1556 (elected), 1333; Grn 469
Split ward where the Lib Dems came top, therefore a Lib Dem gain highly probable.
WYCHAVON DC; Evesham South (Grn died)
Candidates:
BROTHERTON, Stan (Conservative)
HAINES, Julie Anne (Independent)
KNIGHT, Peter John (Green)
QUAYLE, David William Ernest (Liberal Democrat)
SNAPE, Matt (Independent)
TASKER, David Martin (Labour)
2023: Grn 623, 511; Con 303, 298; Ind 186, 154
On the face of it should be a Green hold but may in practice depend on the degree of tactical voting given that both the Lib Dems and Labour have intervened.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2023 19:54:28 GMT
Well, that was a doddle, turned out I didn’t need any help after all. However, I wanted to use a river photo or a lovely one of little Rosie. How does one move a photo from google photos to the required library please? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 9, 2023 19:55:03 GMT
Has anybody heard from Batty today? I’m slightly worried that he has fallen into one of his canals - and they probably wouldn’t pick him up given the speed of those barges. Perhaps he's busy signing extra copies of his book as prizes? |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2023 19:56:17 GMT
To complete the process, make sure you send me my gift. You really want a used plectrum from his banjo? The “as used by Crofty” plecs make a fortune on eBay. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2023 20:01:00 GMT
Has anybody heard from Batty today? I’m slightly worried that he has fallen into one of his canals - and they probably wouldn’t pick him up given the speed of those barges. Perhaps he's busy signing extra copies of his book as prizes? He writes? “Villa’s Barren Years” could be by him I suppose. Has a photo of a sad ole bloke in a Villa shirt from 1982 on the back cover (saw an unsold copy in Oxfam) Well, quite a few actually. Don’t tell him I said that though, he thinks we’re mates. |
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Post by Rafwan on Aug 9, 2023 20:08:58 GMT
Well, that was a doddle, turned out I didn’t need any help after all. However, I wanted to use a river photo or a lovely one of little Rosie. How does one move a photo from google photos to the required library please? ‘Fraid that is above my pay grade … P.S. thanks for the plectrum; just perfect! |
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Post by shevii on Aug 9, 2023 20:26:57 GMT
Electoral Calculus giving Greens Bristol West. That's according to Stats for lefties (full disclosure- now a Green member) who is saying it is this one although I can't find individual seat projections, but EC does give a second Green seat as their central prediction and and this is the Greens top target. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlNot sure what this is based on (perhaps local results in the mix) and personally I'd only be expecting a much reduced Lab majority with Greens looking to take it at the following General Election. Greens were a quite close 2nd in 2015 but then went backwards because of the Corbyn effect and a massive Lab majority in 2017 & 2019 but it is quite a volatile seat (bit like Sheffield Hallam in some respects) and the huge Lab majority there at present is misleading. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 9, 2023 20:56:35 GMT
Electoral Calculus giving Greens Bristol West. That's according to Stats for lefties (full disclosure- now a Green member) who is saying it is this one although I can't find individual seat projections, but EC does give a second Green seat as their central prediction and and this is the Greens top target. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlNot sure what this is based on (perhaps local results in the mix) and personally I'd only be expecting a much reduced Lab majority with Greens looking to take it at the following General Election. Greens were a quite close 2nd in 2015 but then went backwards because of the Corbyn effect and a massive Lab majority in 2017 & 2019 but it is quite a volatile seat (bit like Sheffield Hallam in some respects) and the huge Lab majority there at present is misleading. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 9, 2023 21:03:35 GMT
Labour had a 30,000 majority in 2019 over the Greens in Bristol West
If the Greens win it I'll eat Batty's book
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Post by mandolinist on Aug 9, 2023 21:08:12 GMT
There is also the new boundary to take account of. Until very recently I was convinced Bristol West would turn green, I now think Bristol South is more vulnerable, but either or neither or even both would not greatly surprise me.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2023 21:09:06 GMT
Well, that was a doddle, turned out I didn’t need any help after all. However, I wanted to use a river photo or a lovely one of little Rosie. How does one move a photo from google photos to the required library please? ‘Fraid that is above my pay grade … P.S. thanks for the plectrum; just perfect! Did you manage to buy one then? That’s great - and it should last you for some weeks yet. Paul |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2023 21:09:38 GMT
Labour had a 30,000 majority in 2019 over the Greens in Bristol West If the Greens win it I'll eat Batty's book Better than reading it. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 9, 2023 21:12:52 GMT
Many thanks for that, ON. I would strongly reccommend the EC blog which you have linked, and the full tables are also available. One detail of these which I think it well worth sharing is the overall VI for Scotland, with a sample of 900 (so close to a full scottish Westminster poll). SNP 40% (-5) SLab 30% (+11) SCon 12% (-13) SLD 8% (-1) S Green 7% (+6) That's a fair bit better for the SNP than most other recent polling, and to my surprise, the SNP to Lab seat movements are more nor less than the 8% swing would suggest. I do think that such a small sample is still not sufficient for good seat projections though, and I guess the same should probably apply for Wales (with a sample of 570).
That table has a minor change of Con 13%, Lab 29%.
Which table is most accurate/least inaccurate, I have no idea! |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 9, 2023 21:15:59 GMT
There is also the new boundary to take account of. Until very recently I was convinced Bristol West would turn green, I now think Bristol South is more vulnerable, but either or neither or even both would not greatly surprise me. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2023 21:20:27 GMT
A heartening story for a change and one which demonstrates our potential for us to display much needed humanity, even if it was our fault in the first place. from the Guardian: “A humpback whale trapped in waters south of Sydney has finally been freed after a gruelling eight-hour rescue mission. Rescue efforts began on Saturday morning after reports of a whale in distress off Five Islands near Port Kembla. Volunteer crews from Marine Rescue NSW and NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service were called to assist at about 8.30am. The whale, caught in a series of lines and floats, proved to be a challenge for rescuers to disentangle as weather conditions deteriorated and other whales in the area thwarted recovery attempts. “A series of lines and floats were streaming from the whale,” the Marine Rescue NSW inspector Glenn Sullivan said. A specialist National Parks Wildlife Service whale disentanglement team joined the operation just after noon. Sullivan initially said good weather conditions meant a successful rescue operation was likely. But with a southerly wind change, fading light and other whales in the area it took rescuers more than eight hours to free the mammal, which was untangled at just after 4.30pm. “The rescue crews are over the moon,” Sullivan said. “It’s now swimming on its own steam.” 🐳 <<<<<< Happy rescue crew and whale swimming on its own steam. |
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Post by shevii on Aug 9, 2023 21:29:02 GMT
EC predicts Bristol West as Lab 58% Green 31%. How do you get the constituency bits? Was trying to find this and couldn't. Also their main page says 2 Greens so if not that one then which other one or is this some sort of averaging going on? |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 9, 2023 21:34:27 GMT
EC predicts Bristol West as Lab 58% Green 31%. How do you get the constituency bits? Was trying to find this and couldn't. Also their main page says 2 Greens so if not that one then which other one or is this some sort of averaging going on?
Also that page shows the Greens with 1 seat, not 2! |
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Post by James E on Aug 9, 2023 21:44:57 GMT
Electoral Calculus giving Greens Bristol West. That's according to Stats for lefties (full disclosure- now a Green member) who is saying it is this one although I can't find individual seat projections, but EC does give a second Green seat as their central prediction and and this is the Greens top target. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlNot sure what this is based on (perhaps local results in the mix) and personally I'd only be expecting a much reduced Lab majority with Greens looking to take it at the following General Election. Greens were a quite close 2nd in 2015 but then went backwards because of the Corbyn effect and a massive Lab majority in 2017 & 2019 but it is quite a volatile seat (bit like Sheffield Hallam in some respects) and the huge Lab majority there at present is misleading. Those are the figures in yesterday's 'FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus' MRP seat projection. EC's central seat estimate is a different thing. If you enter their current polling figures as your own prediction, it shows Bristol West as a Green gain from Lab. It looks to me like EC have made a few tweaks to their seat predictor, as it is producing higher LibDem seats, as well as a 2nd Green seat. This may be based on Local Election results, which would be consistent with the Greens doing well in Bristol . Incidentally, if you take current VIs as Lab 45, Con 25, LD 12, Grn 5, Ref 3 and then give 50% tactical voting between Lab, LDs and Greens, EC shows a tie for 2nd place between the Tories and LDs with each taking 51 seats. Lab have 505 and Green 2. So maybe Ed Davey and Suella Braverman taking turns as Leader of the Opposition? |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Aug 9, 2023 21:47:05 GMT
domjg “ mean-spirited inhabitants of, for example, England's eastern counties."” Blimey, that’s a bit broad-brush. Northumberland, Tyne and Wear and all the way down the coast.  I was thinking more Kent, Essex, Lincolnshire. The lands of Ukip and brexit. Kent says hi. |
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Post by jen on Aug 9, 2023 21:53:57 GMT
God people on this site are sensitive. It is quite obvious what athena meant. Not to talk about the endless pearl clutching about mercian ' s comments, who is a perfectly reasonable poster, even if he doesn't fulfil some people's ideas about correct terminology. This isn't Twitter/X. Lighten up. Only Danny deserves the waterboarding. Without referencing mercian specifically, a good rule of life these days is that if you don't challenge racism (and sexism, homophobia, transphobia, etc.) when you see or hear them, then you are effectively condoning those views. It is lack of challenge that allows bigotry to grow and prosper. So I will carry on doing so - but hopefully in a constructive manner to the best of my ability. Good luck with that. I only joined the site to call out an obvious bigot. I got told I was out of order because he was always polite. Nevertheless, I agree with you, and I hope every fucking nazi shit traitor gets what's coming to them. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Aug 9, 2023 21:58:00 GMT
Has anybody heard from Batty today? I’m slightly worried that he has fallen into one of his canals - and they probably wouldn’t pick him up given the speed of those barges. Fear not. I passed through Birmingham today, and I swear I could hear him warbling away in a canal tunnel some distance under my feet. He'll correct me if I'm wrong but I'm sure he was singing 'Keep Right On'. |
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Post by jen on Aug 9, 2023 21:58:19 GMT
I feel extremely strong 'righteous indignation' against the british people who feel 'righteous indignation' of the sort espoused by Anderson. I feel extreme 'righteous indignation' that I live in a country governed by a party and government that panders to cretins like Anderson. My uncle who died at 13 was a cretin because of my grandmother's iodine deficiency during pregnancy. "First recorded in 1770–80; from French crétin, originally from French Alpine dialect creitin, crestin “deformed and mentally defective dwarf” (owing to iodine deficiency in Alpine regions);" I take great offence. 🙄🤣 Why? The government also pander to you... |
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Post by lens on Aug 9, 2023 22:01:57 GMT
My knowledge of cars is exceptionally basic! So can someone explain why batteries seem to be the preferred system for electric cars rather than hydrogen fuel cells?
Is this just a Betamax v VHS controversy?
Since hydrogen production requires little more than off peak renewable electricity (instead of turning the turbines off, and paying compensation!) and water, it would seem relatively easy to convert fossil fuel filling stations to hydrogen ones.
I seek enlightenment. Now that lens has given a detailed and technical answer, I feel less frivolous suggesting that it might in part be that a lot of people hear "hydrogen fuel" and immediately think explodey thoughts. That might be technologically and statistically unfair, tho the one that actually blew up at the filling station in Norway probably didn't help that cause. Yes I know various kinds of batteries catch fire all the time, and ICE cars explode in petrol stations too, but Oldnat asked about why people seem to have a certain preference, and perceptions and fears can (fairly or unfairly) be a significant part of that. To eor and mercian, then whilst I agree with you on a perception point, and whilst I think FCEVs are (now) fundamentally a distraction, then safety is probably not something I'd worry about, at least as a passenger. In the event of any accident where the hydrogen was likely to be a problem I suspect it would have to be so severe that nobody in the car would be able to worry about it anyway....... That said, then about two decades ago I had an LPG conversion as a company car. Was fine for a while until over a few days (away from home) I started to notice parking with a small amount of gas left, (the gauge was an imprecise 4 LED array) but then in the morning it registering empty. The mystery was solved when it suddenly cut out on the motorway - the main gas feed pipe had fractured. It led to a big post mortem within the company and eventually finding a fatigue pipe fracture. When it completely fractured it led to an excess flow preventer activating to cut the gas flow. But the problem was that that can't tell the difference between a slow leak - as the pipe slowly failed - and normal usage. I still shudder at the thought of what might have been if it had not completely failed when it did - parking in the garage (integral with the house) and a slow leak and build up overnight, then a spark from a switch or the boiler and kaboom. My concern with a modern hydrogen car would not be in normal usage, but I wouldn't keep it in a garage, or any enclosed space. Same reason LPG cars are not allowed on Eurotunnel and in some underground car parks, and I believe it would be the same for hydrogen. |
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