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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 22:02:06 GMT
Busy poking around in the electoral archives - I think this is the largest loss of seats by a governing party since 1931.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:02:27 GMT
Does anyone have any indication of likely vote shares based on the exit poll? I still don't think they've released them, but Tory vote down 28% in 2019 Tory seats apparently. Incredible.
Also incredible that Labour are down 1% in their 2019 seats - just as I said earlier they're being bashed a bit in the urban lefty holds and huge swings for them in gains.
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Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 22:04:06 GMT
Off to bed. See you around 3pm.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:04:43 GMT
pjw1961 "No - it is 61. They got 62 in 2005. " Shall we wait and see until they count the votes! Oh haven't they already?!! |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 22:06:27 GMT
Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist who led the team that produced the exit poll, has just told the BBC that they are least confident about the seat figures for Reform UK (13) and for the SNP (10).
With the SNP, he says they have fewer sampling points in Scotland, making it harder to get a firm forecast. But he says he is confident about Labour being the larger party in Scotland.
And he says, with Reform UK, there are seats where they are ahead, but the margin is very tight. He says they could end up with quite a lot less seats, or perhaps even more.
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2024 22:06:52 GMT
Off to bed. See you around 3pm. Wow, that's along sleep Barbara  but I suspect you'll dream sweetly after the last hour or so. |
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Post by baggy07 on Jul 4, 2024 22:07:23 GMT
Firstly thanks everyone who contributed on the previous thread on Tribal support and future tangible Labour improvements.
I am watching Channel 4 and feel Harriet Harman and Alistair Campbell are struggling to sell the Labour story and Rory Stewart comes over very well.
On the Exit Poll it seems that it is a little bit of a dogs dinner and seems that Labour have got only 36% of the vote only 3% more than supposedly the worse ever
vote for Labour in 2019. Fascinating that the Local election results with labour getting 35% recently has been repeated.
Relieved that Labour have won, but no guarantee that they have a 2nd term in the bag.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 22:07:45 GMT
Alex Salmond on the radio just called the SNP outcome in the exit poll the “slaughter of the innocents”
says that SNP have been competing with Tories to be the worst government in history
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:08:43 GMT
Labour apparently losing % in their holds, gaining huge % in their gains. That's how to play FPTP 👍
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Post by jimjam on Jul 4, 2024 22:09:43 GMT
I dont buy 10 for the SNP nor 13 for Reform.
Moreover the 13 seats for reform would be based on taking more votes from the Tories more than other parties therefore overstating Reform support (if I am right) will mean Tories retaining a few extra seats.
Barbara - Labour very confident in Hartlepool based on recent council election as well as canvassing data.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:09:56 GMT
Dowden knighted, Coffey a Dame… "Nothing like a dame"... |
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 22:11:48 GMT
No interview from anyone from Reform yet on BBC.. Habib was on Radio 5 a few minutes ago. |
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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 22:14:42 GMT
Tories lost 246 seats in 1906 - 12 more than the current projection (ignoring floor crossings and by-elections)
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 22:15:11 GMT
Result announced Sunderland South
18,800 Labour
11,768 Reform second…
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Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 22:15:11 GMT
Big Reform share in Houghton and Sunderland South
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Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 22:16:11 GMT
Sunderland S
Phillipson 18,000
Reform 11,000
Can't believe people voting in that number for Reform.
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 22:16:17 GMT
Uh oh. Looks like the Reform numbers could be right  |
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 22:17:01 GMT
Result really quite close to the Survation MRP.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:17:16 GMT
Looking at the Houghton and Sunderland South result tonight will be 650 elections. Every seat a little bit different.
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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 22:18:09 GMT
Sunderland S Phillipson 18,000 Reform 11,000 Can't believe people voting in that number for Reform. Shy Reformers, perhaps? If that is the case, 13 sounds realistic. |
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Post by hireton on Jul 4, 2024 22:18:32 GMT
Does anyone have any indication of likely vote shares based on the exit poll? I still don't think they've released them, but Tory vote down 28% in 2019 Tory seats apparently. Incredible.
Also incredible that Labour are down 1% in their 2019 seats - just as I said earlier they're being bashed a bit in the urban lefty holds and huge swings for them in gains.
It's being suggested that the Labour vote share is about 36%/37% |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 22:18:55 GMT
No interview from anyone from Reform yet on BBC.. I saw one on Sky - some bloke with the appropriate name of 'Bull'. He seemed very angry about everything, so normal standard Reform approach. Forecast that Reform will win a landslide in 2029. |
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Post by catfuzz on Jul 4, 2024 22:20:27 GMT
Sunderland first in - it’s Labour
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 22:21:34 GMT
Result announced Sunderland South 18,800 Labour 11,768 Reform second… I forecast that result a couple of weeks ago. I have no problem with Reform piling up useless votes in second place. It will be up to Labour to deliver good government for the next 5 years and reduce the frustrations with the system that drive far-right voting. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:21:35 GMT
I still don't think they've released them, but Tory vote down 28% in 2019 Tory seats apparently. Incredible.
Also incredible that Labour are down 1% in their 2019 seats - just as I said earlier they're being bashed a bit in the urban lefty holds and huge swings for them in gains.
It's being suggested that the Labour vote share is about 36%/37% Decent result perhaps with LD, Green and Reform all stronger, but way less than most polls were suggesting. As I've mentioned tonight, Labour are doing worse in safe Labour constituencies because the expectation is a landslide and people feel free to vote other. |
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Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 22:21:37 GMT
No interview from anyone from Reform yet on BBC.. Habib was on Radio 5 a few minutes ago. Deputy Leader also had a long interview on Sky News. |
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 22:21:42 GMT
BBC showed Greens up 7% in Labour's 2019 holds. Clear signs that Labour have lost a good deal of support on the left. Similarly their vote share in London forecast down 2%.
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Post by hireton on Jul 4, 2024 22:23:17 GMT
The exit poll suggests that the Tories will winn six seats from the SNP in Scotland and double their number of seats. It will be interesting to see if that happens.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:24:03 GMT
Rees-Mogg saying a charismatic leader more likely to do well in our 'increasingly presidential system'.
Enter Keir Starmer with a huge majority...
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 22:25:13 GMT
In Sunderland with 45% the apathy party wins. Just over 50% of the electorate could be arsed to vote at all.
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but I suspect you'll dream sweetly after the last hour or so. 
