neilj
Member
Posts: 6,376
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 21:12:54 GMT
131 would be the worst result for the tories since they were formed in 1834.
|
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 21:13:25 GMT
urgn, Anne Widdecombe on Channel 4, I need to wash out my eyes and ears. Yuk.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:13:43 GMT
James E's prediction looking closest to the exit poll. barbara not far behind.
|
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 21:15:05 GMT
Cracked open the fizz, I may not make much sense from here on.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:15:27 GMT
urgn, Anne Widdecombe on Channel 4, I need to wash out my eyes and ears. Yuk. Wait for Nadine! |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
Member is Online
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:15:57 GMT
The interjection of Reform has upset many projections. And many people. 170 majority is much lower than was suggested until this week (people making up their minds?) Unmitigated disaster for the Tories, and SNP. Oh, crikey, this is going to be... interesting(!) Bit greedy!  In January 2020 Labour would have happily taken a majority of 17 at the next GE; even that seemed close to impossible. |
|
|
|
Post by mark61 on Jul 4, 2024 21:16:36 GMT
Feeling a bit disappointed, going to have a word with myself! |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 21:18:23 GMT
Yes it is a sign of the scale of change that there is a sense of disappointment that the Tories have done better than many hoped, but with only 131 seats.
Strange times.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:19:30 GMT
Have they released any percentages yet? Just wondering if 'Keith' managed that 20% lead.
|
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 21:19:35 GMT
Sky news have a search function for the exit poll per constutuency but you're still going to have to try and guess the Reform ones. The two Green they are saying are Brighton & Bristol Central- I have my doubts about how accurate they can be, especially giving Tories 99% chance in the other Green targets.
They have Islington North too close to call.
|
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 21:20:16 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 21:21:29 GMT
On the BBC Mandelson completely missing the point that the reason that Labour are doing so well is that the Con vote has been split by Reform and Lib Dems.
|
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 21:21:33 GMT
urgn, Anne Widdecombe on Channel 4, I need to wash out my eyes and ears. Yuk. Wait for Nadine! But I knew she was going to be there, so no surprise. Anne Widdecombe on the other hand I have met, and loathed for a really long time and it took me by surprise, still shuddering with horror here. |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 21:21:44 GMT
I do wonder thought whether the interjection of reform makes this exit poll more likely to be less accurate?
|
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 21:21:48 GMT
urgn, Anne Widdecombe on Channel 4, I need to wash out my eyes and ears. Yuk. And Nadine Dorries! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:22:08 GMT
Sky news have a search function for the exit poll per constutuency but you're still going to have to try and guess the Reform ones. The two Green they are saying are Brighton & Bristol Central- I have my doubts about how accurate they can be, especially giving Tories 99% chance in the other Green targets. They have Islington North too close to call. Thank you.
EDIT: you've given the link. Ta! |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 21:22:51 GMT
James E 's prediction looking closest to the exit poll. barbara not far behind. And I made mine weeks ago! |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 21:24:29 GMT
Has to be said: Labour's vote gain has been limited, even down in Wales/London. Cons vote share has collapsed, down 29% in Midlands, -24% in the south.
Labour would be foolish to imagine they have won wholehearted support of a grateful nation: they've been the beneficiary of a quirk of the FPTP system, and one that could unwind just as quickly.
|
|
RAF
Member
Posts: 1,019
Member is Online
|
Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 21:25:38 GMT
On the BBC Mandelson completely missing the point that the reason that Labour are doing so well is that the Con vote has been split by Reform and Lib Dems. Sky News has been picking up on this |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:25:48 GMT
On the BBC Mandelson completely missing the point that the reason that Labour are doing so well is that the Con vote has been split by Reform and Lib Dems. Labour only do well when the Tory vote slumps (either going elsewhere or staying at home). May sound obvious but 2017 showed us what happens when Labour gain 10% and 3m votes. Nothing! |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 21:26:07 GMT
Sky have got Hartlepool as Reform gain. Doesn't surprise me after the vibes at my tea dance yesterday! |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 21:26:09 GMT
131 would be the worst result for the tories since they were formed in 1834. and LD result is the best for over 100 years apparently |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
Member is Online
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:26:52 GMT
Per the Sky seat thing, Penny Mordaunt likely to lose; Rishi 99% certain to win (I never believed anything else on that one). As I forecast, Braintree and Witham very likely to stay Tory. Harwich and Essex North is very close. Colchester and Harlow probable Labour gains. Chelmsford may be saved for the Tories yet again by the even Lib Dem/Labour split.
|
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 21:28:59 GMT
Per the Sky seat thing, Penny Mordaunt likely to lose; Rishi 99% certain to win (I never believed anything else on that one). As I forecast, Braintree and Witham very likely to stay Tory. Harwich and Essex North is very close. Colchester and Harlow probable Labour gains. Chelmsford may be saved for the Tories yet again by the even Lib Dem/Labour split. Bristol Central a Green gain according to Sky. . .told you all so...probably a bit premature. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
Member is Online
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:29:37 GMT
131 would be the worst result for the tories since they were formed in 1834. and LD result is the best for over 100 years apparently No - it is 61. They got 62 in 2005. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 21:30:27 GMT
Dowden knighted, Coffey a Dame…
|
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 21:30:43 GMT
Sky have got Hartlepool as Reform gain. Doesn't surprise me after the vibes at my tea dance yesterday! I checked Leigh which is next door to me and... phew! |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
Member is Online
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:31:04 GMT
Per the Sky seat thing, Penny Mordaunt likely to lose; Rishi 99% certain to win (I never believed anything else on that one). As I forecast, Braintree and Witham very likely to stay Tory. Harwich and Essex North is very close. Colchester and Harlow probable Labour gains. Chelmsford may be saved for the Tories yet again by the even Lib Dem/Labour split. Bristol Central a Green gain according to Sky. . .told you all so...probably a bit premature. Wait until it happens, if it does. Individual constituency results are more likely to be wrong than the overall message. |
|
RAF
Member
Posts: 1,019
Member is Online
|
Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 21:32:30 GMT
Does anyone have any indication of likely vote shares based on the exit poll?
|
|
|
|
Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 21:33:10 GMT
I posted this earlier on the 2/7 site without realising a new site had been added,
I feel that it is worth repeating.
"With less than 30 min to go and before the posting becomes hectic again, can I say a big thank you to all those who have contributed here during the past 6 weeks. I have certainly found it very interesting even if it has been difficult to keep up.
Can I also say to Crofty and Batty that I hope their sabbaticals are very short lived and that they are back posting very soon. Ideally they will miss posting very quickly and we will be able to enjoy their contributions once again."
|
|
In January 2020 Labour would have happily taken a majority of 17 at the next GE; even that seemed close to impossible. 
