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Post by Mark on Jul 4, 2024 20:49:23 GMT
This is the thread for the General Election results - and discussion of said results...
Got a couple of drinks and an Indian Sheek Kebab for the small hours....must admit to being a little nervous...
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 20:51:36 GMT
Yeah - first!
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 20:51:48 GMT
First!
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 20:52:00 GMT
Damn
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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 20:52:08 GMT
Anyone excited yet?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 20:52:51 GMT
It has suddenly hit me… Hello Keith, btw! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 20:53:42 GMT
Polite plea - please can as many people as possible post the exit poll up at 10? It's very helpful and Crofty can do his usual joke about not having internet access.
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 20:53:58 GMT
Welcome, slightly sick feeling if I am honest, but determined to party like '97. |
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soph
New Member
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Post by soph on Jul 4, 2024 20:55:00 GMT
Excited, but mostly nervous. As usual I probably won't say much but going to keep the thread on screen!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 20:55:38 GMT
Link to the Portillo moments list on the other thread… ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/142220/threadI am adding a few extra key moments here… first counts after 11pm… Blyth & Ashington vs. Houghton & Sunderland South. Both were won by Labour at the last election, but in 2019 Labour’s Bridget Phillipson’s majority was reduced from 12,300 to 3,000 — so the result will be an early indicator of the extent to which Labour’s support has bounced back. With a Tory majority of 6,600, South Swindon is expected to be the first real battleground seat to declare, at about 12.15am. It is a constituency Sir Keir Starmer must win comfortably if he is to be in Downing Street with a workable majority. The Tory chairman Richard Holden’s new seat of Basildon & Billericay is also expected to declare at about the same time. With a majority of 20,000 it should be safe Tory territory — but if Holden loses or the result is close it will confirm the Conservatives’ worst fears about the night to come. At 12.45am Cramlington & Killingworth, a new seat that takes in the majority of the abolished constituency of Blyth Valley, is due to be declared. Blyth Valley was won by the Tories with a majority of only 712 in 2019. Labour is almost certain to take this seat — but the size of its majority will be an early indication of the extent of Tory trouble in the so-called red wall. 1-2amEast Kilbride & Strathaven, Hamilton & Clyde Valley and Rutherglen will be the first seats in Scotland to declare and will provide a clear indication of how far the party has recovered north of the border. To win Hamilton & Clyde Valley Labour needs a swing of 8.2 points and a 12.8-point swing in East Kilbride & Strathaven. Across Scotland a ten-point swing from Labour to the SNP would mean that Starmer’s party picks up 15 constituencies. In the last parliament it held only one seat in Scotland. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats will be looking to Harrogate & Knaresborough — their first target seat of the night to declare. The party held the seat until 2010 and will need an eight-point swing to take it back from the Tories. 2 to 3amIf Labour is on track to win a supermajority then Cannock Chase in Staffordshire could also fall. The seat needs an enormous 21.5-point swing to change hands, ranking it at number 304 on Labour’s target list. At 2.30am the result from Starmer’s constituency of Holborn & St Pancras is due and the Labour leader is likely to make his first public comments about the election result. By this point — if the results are pointing to a decisive Labour victory — then Rishi Sunak may have conceded to Starmer. George Galloway will also learn if he has held on to Rochdale in Greater Manchester, which he won at a by-election in February. 3-4amThis is decapitation hour when a series of senior Tories find out if they’ve won or lost their seats. 4 to 5 pmDartford in Kent is the longest-running bellwether constituency in the country and is due to declare at about 4am. Since 1964, whichever party wins Dartford has also gone on to form the government. Gareth Johnson, the Conservative candidate, is defending a majority here of 14,704, with Labour needing a swing of 15.9 points to take the seat. A key result from Northern Ireland is due at about 4.30am in Lagan Valley, where Sinn Fein has stood aside in the hope of giving the Alliance Party a better chance of gaining the seat that was previously held by Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, who was leader of the Democratic Unionist Party. 5 to 6 amTwo of the most remote constituencies in Scotland should declare during this hour: Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and Orkney & Shetland, both of which the Lib Dems are hoping to win, while results should come in for two of Labour’s top London targets: Finchley & Golders Green and Hendon, both held since 2010 by the Conservatives. |
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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 20:57:40 GMT
It has suddenly hit me… Hello Keith, btw! Hello to you too! I should be pulling an all-nighter here. I have both snacks and drinks at the ready. |
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Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 20:58:13 GMT
Thanks that's very useful |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 21:00:01 GMT
We're off...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:00:28 GMT
Sing when we’re winning, we only sing when we’re winning 🎵
Sing when we’re wi-inning, we only sing when we’re winning. 🎵 🎵
Weeeeee are the champions (etc etc etc etc…) 🎵 🎵 🎵
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 21:01:07 GMT
Exit poll...Labour Landslide
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 21:02:01 GMT
Majority of 170
410 MPs Labour
131 cons
61 LD
2 Green
10 SNP
4 PC
13 Reform!
More than seven cabinet casualties would be a new record in British electoral history.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:02:17 GMT
WHERE ARE THE LIVE CAMS TO THE PARTY HQS?  !! |
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2024 21:02:48 GMT
Yessssssssss!!!!!!!!
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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 21:04:05 GMT
Lab 410
CON 131
LD 61
Ref 13
SNP 10
Green 2
Others 23
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 21:04:28 GMT
Reform 13? I can't believe that, where will they come from? steve wil be pleased with 61 for the LDs |
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 21:05:22 GMT
13 Reform seats - no way  |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 21:06:27 GMT
Is it wrong that 170 seems low? Probably good for democracy though. Tories live to fight another day in the (hopefully) distant future.
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 21:06:29 GMT
SNP only 10 ? - I don't believe that either
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:07:33 GMT
JiB and Trev have gone quiet? And our beloved Scot nats.
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2024 21:08:37 GMT
That's the one really sour note on what appears to be a fantastic night. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:10:49 GMT
Reform 13? I can't believe that, where will they come from? steve wil be pleased with 61 for the LDs Dubious about that and only 10 SNP, rest looks about right. |
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Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 21:11:31 GMT
Is it wrong that 170 seems low? Probably good for democracy though. Tories live to fight another day in the (hopefully) distant future. I must admit I was slightly disappointed by 131 Tories. I wanted them totally destroyed. |
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Post by catfuzz on Jul 4, 2024 21:11:32 GMT
Unlucky 13, yikes!
Disappointed too that 131 is about 30 more than I was hoping for but tbc I guess.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:12:10 GMT
Is it wrong that 170 seems low? Probably good for democracy though. Tories live to fight another day in the (hopefully) distant future. I'm happy - never believed the wipe-out scenario. Still the lowest number of Tories since 1832! |
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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 21:12:40 GMT
The interjection of Reform has upset many projections. And many people.
170 majority is much lower than was suggested until this week (people making up their minds?)
Unmitigated disaster for the Tories, and SNP.
Oh, crikey, this is going to be... interesting(!)
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!!
