c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 21:33:19 GMT
and LD result is the best for over 100 years apparently No - it is 61. They got 62 in 2005. . Best result in 19 years then… (I think they meant the biggest gain in seats for a century) |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:34:21 GMT
Finchley likely LibDem? Amazing how things change - they polled less than 2k in 2015. You wonder whether they've applied the exit poll results to the 2019 election (which was weird in many constituencies with ChangeUK/LD type people) and not taken any interest in anything before, like when it had a Labour MP.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:34:42 GMT
Great Yarmouth is one of the Reform ones - but Reform shown as fractionally second favorites in Ashfield and Boston and Skegness, so I have no idea where they get 13 from.
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 21:35:17 GMT
Per the Sky seat thing, Penny Mordaunt likely to lose; Rishi 99% certain to win (I never believed anything else on that one). As I forecast, Braintree and Witham very likely to stay Tory. Harwich and Essex North is very close. Colchester and Harlow probable Labour gains. Chelmsford may be saved for the Tories yet again by the even Lib Dem/Labour split. Bristol Central a Green gain according to Sky. . .told you all so...probably a bit premature. A lot of those exit poll predictions are 99% which I feel uncertain about and Bristol Central is 99% Green as is Brighton but in Waveney Valley it is 99% Con, 1% Lab and I really don't think this can be the true position- after all we do have constituency polls indicating a Green gain so while the margin for error on that will be high it doesn't seem like it can be 99% sure about Tories winning it. I;m certainly not 99% sure about Brighton or Bristol Central. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:36:32 GMT
Finchley likely LibDem? Amazing how things change - they polled less than 2k in 2015. You wonder whether they've applied the exit poll results to the 2019 election (which was weird in many constituencies with ChangeUK/LD type people) and not taken any interest in anything before, like when it had a Labour MP. That sounds wrong - far more likely to go Labour. There were special circumstances in 2019 that no longer apply. |
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Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 21:36:51 GMT
Great Yarmouth is one of the Reform ones - but Reform shown as fractionally second favorites in Ashfield and Boston and Skegness, so I have no idea where they get 13 from. I will be delighted if Lee Anderson loses! |
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Post by joeboy on Jul 4, 2024 21:37:46 GMT
Is it wrong that 170 seems low? Probably good for democracy though. Tories live to fight another day in the (hopefully) distant future. I must admit I was slightly disappointed by 131 Tories. I wanted them totally destroyed. Yeah and two fewer lost Tory seats than 1906. Bit of a let down really...........not!!! |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:37:49 GMT
Great Yarmouth is one of the Reform ones - but Reform shown as fractionally second favorites in Ashfield and Boston and Skegness, so I have no idea where they get 13 from. Barnsley South is another Reform. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:39:00 GMT
Great Yarmouth is one of the Reform ones - but Reform shown as fractionally second favorites in Ashfield and Boston and Skegness, so I have no idea where they get 13 from. I will be delighted if Lee Anderson loses! 46% chance Labour, 44% chance Reform |
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Post by eor on Jul 4, 2024 21:39:46 GMT
domjg - BBC tipping Didcot & Wantage as LD pjw1961 - they've got Harwich staying Tory, and Bassetlaw as one of the RefUk gains
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:40:05 GMT
Finchley likely LibDem? Amazing how things change - they polled less than 2k in 2015. You wonder whether they've applied the exit poll results to the 2019 election (which was weird in many constituencies with ChangeUK/LD type people) and not taken any interest in anything before, like when it had a Labour MP. That sounds wrong - far more likely to go Labour. There were special circumstances in 2019 that no longer apply. Likewise Old Bexley and Sidcup showing as 97% Labour gain in exit poll, yet was the SOLE London constituency staying Tory according to most polls I've put through Electoral Calculus in the last month.
Something's up.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:42:39 GMT
Redditch 55% chance Labour gain, 42% chance Con hold.
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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 21:43:05 GMT
1983 proved what happens when one side of politics gets divided; I never thought it would go the other way.
Without the split, we would be looking at minority/coalition government
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Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 21:43:40 GMT
That sounds wrong - far more likely to go Labour. There were special circumstances in 2019 that no longer apply. Likewise Old Bexley and Sidcup showing as 97% Labour gain in exit poll, yet was the SOLE London constituency staying Tory according to most polls I've put through Electoral Calculus in the last month.
Something's up.
If Lab win in Bexley that's one of the signs of the end of the world lol. |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 21:43:51 GMT
Redditch 55% chance Labour gain, 42% chance Con hold. will be dancing in the streets if that result goes his way. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:44:45 GMT
Conclusion so far - the overall result is probably roughly right, but I don't have a lot of faith in individual constituency results. Going to be well worth watching the real thing, as I suspect there will be a good deal of variation.
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 21:44:56 GMT
Great Yarmouth is one of the Reform ones - but Reform shown as fractionally second favorites in Ashfield and Boston and Skegness, so I have no idea where they get 13 from. Barnsley South is another Reform. And Barnsley North @ 99%. Barnsley South is only 98% chance. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:45:37 GMT
1983 proved what happens when one side of politics gets divided; I never thought it would go the other way. Without the split, we would be looking at minority/coalition governmentI'm really not sure about that... Labour were getting a landslide months/years ago before the Reform vote doubled (if it has), and their predecessors Brexit and UKIP have been polling decently for numerous elections so are a fact of life just like the 'splitters' on the LOC. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 21:46:46 GMT
domjg - BBC tipping Didcot & Wantage as LD pjw1961 - they've got Harwich staying Tory, and Bassetlaw as one of the RefUk gains Harwich - only just. Very close. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:50:22 GMT
Some knife-edge results coming up it seems... Who will be left to take over from Sunak? Braverman looks like she's staying, Patel and Badenoch also. Mordaunt tragically slain by Labour's sword. Or will it be Farage? He's likely to be quite vocal in the morning saying 'it was Reform wot dunnit'.
EDIT: I realise I said earlier that I wasn't going to be posting tonight but I'm actually quite bored in this dead bit before the results come in, and the prosecco is flowing (not posh enough for champagne socialist).
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2024 21:54:44 GMT
Likewise Old Bexley and Sidcup showing as 97% Labour gain in exit poll, yet was the SOLE London constituency staying Tory according to most polls I've put through Electoral Calculus in the last month.
Something's up.
If Lab win in Bexley that's one of the signs of the end of the world lol. I was brought up in Eltham, south-east London. It was its own constituency but now it's morphed into Eltham and Chislehurst, which trust me, is a weird and implausible geographic entity. Yet it's shown as being Labour. In 1945 Labour winning Chislehurst was a totemic result, remembered decades later. Well, it looks like Chislehurst is going Labour again, whether it wants to or not.  SE9 rocks! |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 21:56:58 GMT
domjgHoping for a few more than 61 another couple and it's the best performance for a third party for a century. With the Tories inevitably descending into infighting disarray , going to be down to the lib dems to offer a progressive and internationalist opposition. By the way 61+ is more than 8 as someone who used to like to post here predicted.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 21:58:18 GMT
If Lab win in Bexley that's one of the signs of the end of the world lol. I was brought up in Eltham, south-east London. It was its own constituency but now it's morphed into Eltham and Chislehurst, which trust me, is a weird and implausible geographic entity. Yet it's shown as being Labour. In 1945 Labour winning Chislehurst was a totemic result, remembered decades later. Well, it looks like Chislehurst is going Labour again, whether it wants to or not. SE9 rocks! There are some very strange individual results in this exit poll, not just caused by people changing their minds but also demographic changes I expect. I can't speak for south-east London but places round here like the Isle of Wight, Dorset etc have seen a lot of people from London move in since Covid and the explosion of remote working. I suspect those 'lefty liberals' will be contributing to Tory woes, and perhaps smaller swings in London. |
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Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 21:58:38 GMT
Laura Kuensberg on BBC1 busy pouring cold water on Lib Dem and Labour successes.
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Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 21:59:07 GMT
If Lab win in Bexley that's one of the signs of the end of the world lol. I was brought up in Eltham, south-east London. It was its own constituency but now it's morphed into Eltham and Chislehurst, which trust me, is a weird and implausible geographic entity. Yet it's shown as being Labour. In 1945 Labour winning Chislehurst was a totemic result, remembered decades later. Well, it looks like Chislehurst is going Labour again, whether it wants to or not. SE9 rocks! Steady on, old boy! It was Bromley and Chislehurst last time. And the YouGov MRP even had that seat going Labour, so even before boundary changes leafy Chislehurst may have gone Labout anyway. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 21:59:15 GMT
1983 proved what happens when one side of politics gets divided; I never thought it would go the other way. Without the split, we would be looking at minority/coalition governmentI'm really not sure about that... Labour were getting a landslide months/years ago before the Reform vote doubled (if it has), and their predecessors Brexit and UKIP have been polling decently for numerous elections so are a fact of life just like the 'splitters' on the LOC. Farage was asked about this in a recent interview. He said that he thought that if Reform didn't stand that about 25% would go to Tory, 10-15% to Labour and most of the rest wouldn't vote. Only his opinion but it sounds about right to me. So talk of a split on the 'right' isn't quite that simple. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 22:00:43 GMT
pjw1961"No - it is 61. They got 62 in 2005. " Shall we wait and see until they count the votes!
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 22:01:07 GMT
Excellent explanation of the importance of tactical voting in FPTP by Daisy Cooper on BBC.
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Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 22:01:39 GMT
Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist who led the team that produced the exit poll, has just told the BBC that they are least confident about the seat figures for Reform UK (13) and for the SNP (10).
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 22:02:06 GMT
No interview from anyone from Reform yet on BBC..
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SE9 rocks! 
