soph
New Member
Posts: 15
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Post by soph on Jul 4, 2024 22:26:50 GMT
Perhaps I'm extrapolating too soon, but Houghton and Sunderland South remarkably close in share to the Survation and YouGov final MRPs besides the reality being even more Reform votes than estimated.
Could suggest the exit poll has got Reform about right, but overestimating the Tories. Going to have to pay attention to every count I think..!
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 4, 2024 22:27:41 GMT
The exit poll suggests that the Tories will winn six seats from the SNP in Scotland and double their number of seats. It will be interesting to see if that happens. Yes , including my constituency Angus & Perthshire which would be a bit of a shock |
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 22:28:17 GMT
Firstly thanks everyone who contributed on the previous thread on Tribal support and future tangible Labour improvements. I am watching Channel 4 and feel Harriet Harman and Alistair Campbell are struggling to sell the Labour story and Rory Stewart comes over very well. On the Exit Poll it seems that it is a little bit of a dogs dinner and seems that Labour have got only 36% of the vote only 3% more than supposedly the worse ever vote for Labour in 2019. Fascinating that the Local election results with labour getting 35% recently has been repeated. Relieved that Labour have won, but no guarantee that they have a 2nd term in the bag. The lowest percentage for a winning party since WWII was 35.2% in 2005. I'm sure they'll beat that. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:28:37 GMT
In Sunderland with 45% the apathy party wins. Just over 50% of the electorate could be arsed to vote at all. Indeed. 10% swing and vote up in terms of % and number since 2019. Not bad in a safe Labour seat, which apparently isn't where Labour are performing amazingly tonight.
By the way I'm not a tribal Labour supporter whatsoever if anyone wonders. Tory 2001-2015. Been anything but since.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 22:30:17 GMT
In Barnsley North, the exit poll predicts that Labour’s Dan Jarvis is likely to lose his seat to a former Reform candidate who was dropped by the party last week over alleged racist comments.
On an episode of BBC Question Time on Friday, Reform party leader Nigel Farage disowned three candidates, including Bansley North’s Robert Lomas.
According to a report in the Times, Lomas had reportedly said that “black people of Britain should get off their lazy arses and stop acting like savages”, and that asylum seekers had it “in their DNA to lie.”
On Saturday, Reform confirmed it had withdrawn support from Lomas and two other candidates. It is understood Lomas would sit as an independent MP.
Wtf!
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Post by hireton on Jul 4, 2024 22:31:13 GMT
Exit poll vote share thought to be
Lab 37%
Con 23%
Reform 17%
LD 12%
Green 7%
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 22:32:02 GMT
hireton - Curtice says the SNP seat numbers (like Reform) are more difficult to call, but the SNP doesn't seem to be contesting the 10 seat figure. It looks like Cons have benefited from the FPTP vote split in Scotland.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:32:36 GMT
Nice of Blyth to bring on the Suffragettes. Tories absolutely smashed there  |
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Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 22:33:32 GMT
Blyth - reform second to Lab Con third
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 22:34:17 GMT
Reform coming second again… Result announced Sunderland South 18,800 Labour 11,768 Reform second… I forecast that result a couple of weeks ago. I have no problem with Reform piling up useless votes in second place. It will be up to Labour to deliver good government for the next 5 years and reduce the frustrations with the system that drive far-right voting. Hopefully. But Reform have risen quickly though. Then again I think they’ll have a ceiling if they stick with right wing economics |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 22:36:38 GMT
Exit poll vote share thought to be Lab 37% Con 23% Reform 17% LD 12% Green 7% Pretty close to the final polls. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:38:27 GMT
Exit poll vote share thought to be Lab 37% Con 23% Reform 17% LD 12% Green 7% Disappointing but I'll try not to cry into my prosecco as my living standards go up and hopefully we get closer to Europe. |
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Post by hireton on Jul 4, 2024 22:38:37 GMT
hireton - Curtice says the SNP seat numbers (like Reform) are more difficult to call, but the SNP doesn't seem to be contesting the 10 seat figure. It looks like Cons have benefited from the FPTP vote split in Scotland. Indeed. And Labour will be pleased to have Tory MPs rather than SNP MPs. |
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 22:38:46 GMT
Exit poll vote share thought to be Lab 37% Con 23% Reform 17% LD 12% Green 7% Together with low turnout that surely that means that Con will lose even more seats than being forecast? Squeezed til their pips squeak by Lib Dem and Reform. |
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Post by eor on Jul 4, 2024 22:39:11 GMT
Brexit Party came second in both these seats in 2015, but they beat the Tories very narrowly then - this time it's more like 2:1?
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Post by mark61 on Jul 4, 2024 22:39:16 GMT
Thinking Conservatives may do a bit worse than exit polls are forecasting, need to see some results in the south, hopefully Reform also under perform.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 22:40:54 GMT
Reform coming second again… I forecast that result a couple of weeks ago. I have no problem with Reform piling up useless votes in second place. It will be up to Labour to deliver good government for the next 5 years and reduce the frustrations with the system that drive far-right voting. Hopefully. But Reform have risen quickly though. Then again I think they’ll have a ceiling if they stick with right wing economics Its a protest vote against 'the system'. Reform is the receptacle to gather it up, rather than the driver of it. Labour has to make said system work better for ordinary people. Trouble is that will mean upsetting their new 'friends' in the City. We shall see. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 22:41:05 GMT
Result announced Sunderland South 18,800 Labour 11,768 Reform second… I forecast that result a couple of weeks ago. I have no problem with Reform piling up useless votes in second place. It will be up to Labour to deliver good government for the next 5 years and reduce the frustrations with the system that drive far-right voting. That's good to know. They'll be drastically cutting immigration then? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:44:51 GMT
BBC talking about Reform non-stop. Is Channel 4 any better?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 22:46:12 GMT
I forecast that result a couple of weeks ago. I have no problem with Reform piling up useless votes in second place. It will be up to Labour to deliver good government for the next 5 years and reduce the frustrations with the system that drive far-right voting. That's good to know. They'll be drastically cutting immigration then? Its about more than immigration - people can't get on the housing ladder, hard to find well paying work, educational opportunities reduced, etc, etc. But yes, the levels of net migration have been too high for the last two years and I would expect they will reduce, given Labour are interested in actual solutions rather than performative dog-whistle stuff. |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 22:46:59 GMT
BBC talking about Reform non-stop. Is Channel 4 any better? Marginally, but Anne Widdecombe! |
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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 22:49:15 GMT
BBC talking about Reform non-stop. Is Channel 4 any better? Marginally, but Anne Widdecombe! She was fun on Strictly |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 22:49:19 GMT
That's good to know. They'll be drastically cutting immigration then? Immigration was fairly cut before the last couple of years... |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 22:50:05 GMT
Reform coming second again… Hopefully. But Reform have risen quickly though. Then again I think they’ll have a ceiling if they stick with right wing economics Its a protest vote against 'the system'. Reform is the receptacle to gather it up, rather than the driver of it. Labour has to make said system work better for ordinary people. Trouble is that will mean upsetting their new 'friends' in the City. We shall see. Some are protesting, but some are people who have given up on Tories because don’t like the “One Nation Liberal” thing. But those latter people want right-wing economics. Red wallers bothered about immigration though might prefer left-wing economics. A tricky divide that may well limit Reform, possibly more votes in tacking leftwards economically though |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 22:50:47 GMT
Marginally, but Anne Widdecombe! She was fun on Strictly No. She really wasn't. She hates women, she hates sex, she probably hates you even though she has never met you. |
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 22:52:45 GMT
soph - both the first 2 results look close to the Survation MRP.
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2024 22:53:38 GMT
No. She really wasn't. She hates women, she hates sex, she probably hates you even though she has never met you.  |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 22:56:54 GMT
Channel 4 does have the amazing Hannah Fry crunching the numbers, currently forecasting the Portillo moments. Having a girl crush.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 23:05:36 GMT
Sunderland central
Labour hold, Reform second
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 23:08:58 GMT
Sunderland central Labour hold, reform second Another city dropping down my 'places to visit' list. |
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