Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 0:19:38 GMT
True - but that applies equally to every other party. I believe the last 5 years have been different to what I have seen before. Maybe other parties do this too but there is a real exceptionalism to the way in which the Boris Tories and post-Boris Tories have done it. Con only achieved power by pandering to the eurosceptic vote, trying to captured UKIP voters. This was rather dangerous for the Uk and has resulted in our leaving the EU, seriously damaging the UK. It was dangerous because traditionally con are the pro EU party, so who else would defend membership? Conservatives knew we needed to be in the EU, that it was in particular important for UK business and the rich, their core vote. It was an excellent way of delivering controlled migration to the UK to manage our perceived labour shortage. But they abandoned all this just to get into power. So would they now argue the end justifies the means? They already made that choice back before the 2010 election. |
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Post by eor on Jul 3, 2024 0:52:27 GMT
In how low can you go news. The Tory election campaign in Torbay has accused the lib dem candidate Steve Darling of pretending to be blind for electoral purposes. Darling has been registered blind since a child in 1986. View AttachmentThere have been times on here when I've been (usually gently) accused of being dubiously, almost suspiciously non-committal on matters of personal preference. A devotee of the horse-race, emotionally divorced from the consequence. So to balance that just a little... as someone who was at university with the incumbent MP for Torbay, has met him several times, and who lived in Coventry throughout his time in opposition and power on the Council, I have no qualms in sharing that on election night I will have my very best bottle of scotch in the drawer of my desk, for no reason better than to pour a measure and with it toast the wisdom of the people of Torbay if they sling him out. He's not an evil guy, he's not corrupt, he's just... the epitome of what makes people casually turn away from politicians. If he'd been elected a decade or so earlier than he finally was, he could have been the guy Peter Mannion disparages in The Thick of It when he says "He's the reason people hate politicians. He makes me hate politicians, and I am one." |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 5:33:38 GMT
I believe the last 5 years have been different to what I have seen before. Maybe other parties do this too but there is a real exceptionalism to the way in which the Boris Tories and post-Boris Tories have done it.
Parties in opposition to an existentialist threat to their state, can behave somewhat differently than they do where no such threat exists.Is that irony? I think you mean scots see the tories as an existential threat to scotland. If you mean the conservative party feeling labour is an existential threat to britain as they have claimed in propaganda, its obvious nonsense from the party which dissolved parliament to prevent it voting down the executive, but maybe someone has been watching the crown and recalled how such claims were used against Wilson. If you mean conservatives see an existential threat to the existence of their party, that is indeed possible. The party voluntarily abandoned the centre and the europhiles and has seen the extreme right abandon it to Reform. Just how much does that leave? But also the reason con have been successful as a party over the years seems to be more because of a divided left under FPP system. Not because their policies are popular. The Major government fell and Thatcher started to topple for similar reasons to their fall now. The collapse of state services because of under funding. While both parties are still talking about record tax rates, they arent record tax rates compared to other comparable developed countries. They are still low despite how much con have raised them. You cannot run a modern state without centralised services, because they are basically monopolies and the private sector will exploit this monopoly if you let it. You can use regulated services, but the regulation has to be effective and it really isnt in the UK. if you do that you get a constant tension that the private contractor's goal is maximise profit and minimise work input, whereas the government goal is the opposite.
It wasnt so obvious at the time, but the Thatcher legacy of selling off state assets has been incredibly harmful to britain. And ending the construction of council houses even worse. It has all turned britain into a high cost country difficult to get anything done, and therefore hostile to industry. Plus add to that brexit meaning we no longer can directly access the EU market. Talk about destroying your national wealth base.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 5:36:50 GMT
More pressure from prominent Democrats for Biden to go, personally I think he'll decide to call it a day in the next couple of weeks
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 5:41:17 GMT
SkyNews poll tracker puts Labour on a 19 point lead over the Conservatives. Labour lead down a tad and Reform falling a little
Lab 40.0 (36-43)
Con 20.7 (15-25)
Reform 16.2 (13-21)
LibDems 11.0 (9-13)
Green 6.0 (4-9)
SNP 3.0 (2-5)
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 5:46:19 GMT
One of the reasons Survations MRP was more punchy than some others is that they have now adjusted for mortality since 2019 (I think the only one that has)
Dylan Dyford has written a lot about this previously and how, because of the tory have predominantly oder voters, it disproportionately effects them
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 5:47:21 GMT
Final poll from Verian:
Lab 36%
Con 21%
Reform 16%
Lib Dems 13%
Green 7%
SNP 3%
Other 4%
28 Jun - 1 Jul
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 3, 2024 5:48:46 GMT
More pressure from prominent Democrats for Biden to go, personally I think he'll decide to call it a day in the next couple of weeks I think Obama may be the key figure here. If he has a private conversation with Biden suggesting that he should step down then I think he would. The mutual respect and admiration between the two men is enormous. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 5:48:56 GMT
Ashcroft's final poll
Lab 38%
Con 19%
Reform 18%
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 5:50:47 GMT
Savanta Scotland
28 Jun - 2 Jul (changes vs 21-25 Jun):
SNP ~ 34% (nc)
Lab ~ 31% (-3)
Con ~ 15% (+1)
LD ~ 9% (nc)
RUK ~ 6% (nc)
Grn ~ 3% (+1)
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 3, 2024 5:56:25 GMT
Early signs from the last batch of polls as they roll in today is that Labour look on course to get about the same percentage share of the vote as Cameron's Tories got in 2010.
The only difference, and it will have real significance in the Commons seats share, is that Brown's Labour did about 10% better in 2010 than the the Tories look likely to do tomorrow.
The Reform wild card being another crucial differentiating factor too.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 5:58:23 GMT
More pressure from prominent Democrats for Biden to go, personally I think he'll decide to call it a day in the next couple of weeks I think Obama may be the key figure here. If he has a private conversation with Biden suggesting that he should step down then I think he would. The mutual respect and admiration between the two men is enormous. You mean, Biden was a role model for Obama in his own career and bid to become president, before largely retiring himself as an elder statesman? The big problem seems to be how you could now insert a credible candidate in Biden's place. You might need to persuade him to endorse someone other than his current vice president. |
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Post by lefthanging on Jul 3, 2024 6:00:02 GMT
Redfield Wilton Undecided Voters Which way do undecided voters (6% of the sample) lean closest to voting? (28 June – 2 July) 17% Labour 14% Conservative 11% Reform 10% Liberal Democrat 6% Green 13% Other 29% lean closest to NOT voting than to voting Positive results there. But a pity if they didn't have a follow up question for the 29% who lean towards not voting asking them something like 'if you had to vote, which party would you vote for?'. If we knew that, we could have a sense of how many of them are disgruntled Tories who currently plan not to vote but could easily see the light and return to mother church come polling day. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 6:05:32 GMT
But a pity if they didn't have a follow up question for the 29% who lean towards not voting asking them something like 'if you had to vote, which party would you vote for?'. If we knew that, we could have a sense of how many of them are disgruntled Tories who currently plan not to vote but could easily see the light and return to mother church come polling day. That depends. The problem is, if they really do not vote then trying to reassign them to their past favourite is reducing accuracy. Polling tends to rely upon taking the past situation and assuming a small change has taken place. Apply observed change to old outcomes. Trouble comes if the change is a really big one, and then the asumption you can take the past as a baseline just breaks down. The situation now is that Starmer may get fewer votes than Corbyn, but Sunak vastly fewer than his predecessors. That means a big surge by voters to none of the above. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 6:07:00 GMT
Braverman's come out early in the tory leadership campaign, criticising the election campaign and record in Government, predicting a tory defeat
She also criticised the tory attacks in Reform
She wants to fight for the 'soul of the Conservative party'
All this on the last day of campaigning...
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 6:18:21 GMT
Braverman's come out early in the tory leadership campaign, criticising the election campaign and record in Government, predicting a tory defeat She also criticised the tory attacks in Reform She wants to fight for the 'soul of the Conservative party' All this on the last day of campaigning... Braverman only got 63% of the vote at her last election, so its the sort of seat the conservatives believe is still winnable but a battleground seat. It would seem likely she feels she needs to distance herself from the failures of the conservative government. Perhaps given her background try to take the reform line in terms of brexit having been mucked up and the government too soft on immigration. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jul 3, 2024 6:21:20 GMT
Nothing to do with Passover. It is the same reason that Christians keep Sundays holy (in theory). On the seventh day, He rested. In Christianity that's Sunday, in Judaism that's Saturday which starts after dark on Friday night. I think the concept has generally been brought to a wider audience in recent years via the brilliant C4 sitcom "Friday Night Dinner". When I saw the discussion spring up, my first thought was about a lovely bit of squirrel. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 6:28:39 GMT
It seems to me the supreme court ruling doesnt invalidate Trump's recent conviction. His argument is that evidence used to create that conviction should have been suppressed because it concerned actions he took as president.
The supreme court however did not state actions of the president in office must be considered secret and cannot be openly discussed or used for some other purpose such as evidence shedding light on a private activity.
The charges are not about his official duties, so it doesnt seem relevant that defence can be used to suppress some of the evidence. Although already the current case isnt about using the services of a prostitute, but covering up that this was done contrary to electoral expenses laws. Is obeying electoral law part of the official duty of a president? I guess not, as its a duty on all candidates whether they become president or not.
What however also seems likely, is that this is another round of legal delays meaning the case will not conclude until after the election.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jul 3, 2024 6:36:16 GMT
Redfield Wilton Undecided Voters Which way do undecided voters (6% of the sample) lean closest to voting? (28 June – 2 July) 17% Labour 14% Conservative 11% Reform 10% Liberal Democrat 6% Green 13% Other 29% lean closest to NOT voting than to voting Positive results there. But a pity if they didn't have a follow up question for the 29% who lean towards not voting asking them something like 'if you had to vote, which party would you vote for?'. If we knew that, we could have a sense of how many of them are disgruntled Tories who currently plan not to vote but could easily see the light and return to mother church come polling day. I doubt it. Personally, I think that we're well past the point where disgruntled Tories could "easily see the light" and vote for them tomorrow. Not in any significant numbers anyway. During his 'campaign', Sunak has done a great job of extinguishing any smouldering embers of remaining motivation for large chunks of the 2019 Tory cohort to vote for them again. Not even clothes pegs would help. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jul 3, 2024 6:37:15 GMT
Braverman's come out early in the tory leadership campaign, criticising the election campaign and record in Government, predicting a tory defeat She also criticised the tory attacks in Reform She wants to fight for the 'soul of the Conservative party' All this on the last day of campaigning... For today and today only, more power to her elbow. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 6:38:59 GMT
neilj"One of the reasons Survations MRP was more punchy than some others is that they have now adjusted for mortality since 2019"years I red that as adjusted for morality. Which also seems appropriate.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 6:45:35 GMT
Danny Regarding cars as becoming increasingly luxury items, just came across this headline: “ Sadiq Khan is extending London’s congestion charge to all zero-emission vehicles from the end of next year.” “The move, which will extend the £15-a-day tax on motoring to battery-powered electric vehicles from Christmas Day 2025, was widely condemned on Tuesday.” re-posted this here for reply, because I think it important. Not so much about Khan, but that taxes were only taken off electric vehicles to try to encourage adoption. Its inevitable in the end some sort of taxes will be reimposed upon electric vehicles to raise similar money to previously. The problem of course is how to tax electricity being used for vehicles rather than other things. One obvious step would be to raise VAT on home electricity. This might be accompanied by reducing the standing charge, so as to lighten the relative load on small consumers, ie the poor. Sneaking up standing charges has been another transfer of tax from wealthy to poor which should never have been allowed. However, its hard to tax car electricity as much as road fuel this way, we might need to create a new form of taxation. Khan is imposing a usage tax, so maybe we might need to start counting recorded road mileage and sending people a tax bill for that each year. Or using the growing national network of number plate cameras to charge nationally as per Khan.
Right now though, electric vehicle adoption is stalling, so unlikely yet to be a tax target in general. I seem to recall Khan was required to expand his charging system by the conservative government in return for increasing the subsidy on London public transport, which was going bankrupt post covid?
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 6:47:48 GMT
oldnatThe wee man's been awarded the Windsor clan " not bald yet" medal of achievement.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 6:48:22 GMT
More news Alaskan icefields shrinking in a way which is unlikely to be reversible. This has implications for sea level rise over the next 100 years, but i doubt anyone by then will be blaming the Cameron to Sunak governments despite their culpability.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 6:50:43 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 6:53:59 GMT
"Sadiq Khan is extending London’s congestion charge to all zero-emission vehicles from the end of next year.”
The headline is lifted from the Torygraph they appear to have zero evidence, what a shocker and TFL have made no statements regarding an extent to EV's at all. The assertion appears no where else.
Given it's supposed to be a congestion charge it doesn't seem unreasonable that measures should aim at reducing congestion.
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Post by alec on Jul 3, 2024 6:56:01 GMT
Some perspective on that decision regarding absolute immunity for the US president. Justice Kavanaugh appears to have had a change of principle somewhere between his nomination hearings and sitting in judgement on the man who appointed him.
The US justice system is completely broken.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 6:56:50 GMT
neiljWe don't have to look very far Theresa May as prime minister kept every Sunday morning free so she could have a chat with her own invisible sparkly sky elf.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 7:03:13 GMT
The attack on Starmer and Friday nights probably wasn't motivated by antisemitism,it's more about ignorance I doubt it would be happening if he said I keep Sunday mornings free to take my family to church I also do not think starmer would have been criticised for having a traditional UK christian sunday observance whether going to church or a sunday family roast. Why however do you believe this makes it more likely Sunak was not motivated by wanting to draw attention to why this might be happening on Friday? I dont think this has anything to do with sunak's personal views on anything at all. Its all about election strategy and getting reform voters back voting conservative. I dont see how it makes sense otherwise. Its not unlike con claiming they will cut immigration in every election since cameron first won, but then presiding over steady rises. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 7:10:08 GMT
Some perspective on that decision regarding absolute immunity for the US president. Justice Kavanaugh appears to have had a change of principle somewhere between his nomination hearings and sitting in judgement on the man who appointed him. The US justice system is completely broken. Um. However, the changes to the supreme court only reflect the results of elections for those people who chose and appointed the judges. Not being at all an expert on the US constitution, but its not clear to me the supreme court has really done more than bend interpretaion of rules a little back towards a flat face value interpretation of the written constitution, whereas this has in the past been interpreted more liberally. I think if many americans did not agree this was what has happened ,there would be a much greater groundswell against it than has been the case.
Even in the US the reasons for voter revolt are the same as in europe: immigrants are unpopular. Jobs exported abroad have undermined the local economy, in particular the incomes of the poorer half of the population. The 'american dream' that anyone can reach the top has been betrayed. Society is divided between the winners and losers.
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