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Post by Mark on Jul 2, 2024 15:30:24 GMT
The final polling thread before the big day on Thursday...
Westminster voting intention :
LAB: 40% (nc)
CON: 20% (nc)
REF: 17% (+1)
LDEM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-3)
via @opiniumresearch, 26 - 28 Jun
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Post by alec on Jul 2, 2024 15:40:05 GMT
Can't get my head round what the seat difference would be between a 40/20 or 36/24 split, as there seems to be some divergence in the polls.
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soph
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Post by soph on Jul 2, 2024 15:44:39 GMT
Reposting from last thread, with an addition about accuracy... If anyone ( James E ) can advise... the We Think tables for Bristol Central are hard to understand. However if I have got this right there is a huge (unexplained) weighting in favour of the Greens: omnisis.co.uk/poll-results/ge-2024-bristol-central/As far as I can see the unweighted is 162 Lab and 115 Green which turns into 153 Green and 120 Lab. Regardless of whether the weighting is fair or not, surely such heavy weighting must come with huge doubts about how accurate the poll is going to be? I believe it is mostly explained by the sample being disproportionately older.
They got just 33 responses from 18-24 year olds, and just 50 from 25-34 year olds. These were bumped to 103 and 125 respectively. On the other end, they got 74 and 87 responses from 65-74 and 75+, which were weighted down to 18 and 20. Greens' advantage is with younger people, so after the age weighting their numbers go way up, vice versa for Labour. Regarding accuracy of such a poll, I don't think the weightings are actually that much of an issue, because the proportion of the original sample is so high for both Labour and Green. The change in 95% confidence MoE would only be 1-2% more than the 5% base MoE. If it was, say, 5 responses for Green from 18-24 year olds bloated into 100, then I would say there's good reason to throw it out though.
Nevertheless, 40% Labour to 49% Green is actually within MoE that it could go the other way, and no single poll can be taken at face value.
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Post by alec on Jul 2, 2024 15:46:57 GMT
Meanwhile, in the more important (for us) Supreme Court, this ruling is going to be hugely significant - www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/02/landmark-united-utilities-ruling-paves-way-for-legal-action-over-sewageIt's often said that regulation is more about enforcement than what the rules actually say, and this is a case in point. Neoliberalism's main support is toothless regulation, so governments can argue they have passed legislation, cut budgets for the agencies that enforce these, and then evade the responsibility by pointing to private companies, independent regulators, and generally confusing the whole issue. One answer to this is to allow citizens and non-governmental legal entities the right to take action in cases of regulatory failure. Everyone becomes a policeman. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 2, 2024 15:50:42 GMT
Repost from last.
Keir Starmer isn't as far as I know religious, however his wife is, she's Jewish and Mr and Mrs Starmer have chosen to bring up their children in the Jewish faith.They're teenagers I believe.
As I'm sure most people are aware Friday evening's are quite important in the Jewish calendar for some it involves a special meal known as a Shabbat.
I've no idea whether the Starmer's choose to have this but it's quite likely.
Today Starmer said if at all possible he would like to spend Friday evening's with his family, he said obviously this wouldn't always be possible.
Perfectly reasonable you would think, not if you're a Tory or a Tory enabling media shill.
They've collectively thrown all their toys out of the pram with ludicrous assertions of part time prime minister etc.
Odd they would get so excited given that when Theresa May was prime minister she built in " me time" every Saturday and every Sunday morning she did some sort of religious observance.
Spaffer of course spent many of his evenings at parties or on holiday.
Not a word was said about either.
It's almost as if they're a bunch of hypocritical straw grasping bawbags
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Post by athena on Jul 2, 2024 15:51:39 GMT
This 'seats to watch' guide from UK in a Changing Europe goes beyound the usual categories (Blue wall; Red wall; Con/Leave redoubts; Con/Strong leave; Diverse battlegrounds; Graduate-heavy; Lab breakthrough; Major boundary change; SNP/Lab battlegrounds; Traditional swing seats) and helpfully provides demographics, a potted electoral history and recent MRP predictions for each seat. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 2, 2024 15:52:01 GMT
alec"Everyone becomes a policeman." trust me they wouldn't enjoy it☺
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Post by jimjam on Jul 2, 2024 16:06:42 GMT
Just out from R&W.
" Labour leads the Conservatives by 19% in our final poll.
🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (28 June - 2 July):
Labour 41% (-1)
Conservative 22% (+3)
Reform UK 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 26-27 Jun
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti… pic.twitter.com/rSL165T2uk
02/07/2024, 17:00"
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 2, 2024 16:46:51 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 2, 2024 16:55:00 GMT
Repost from last. Keir Starmer isn't as far as I know religious, however his wife is, she's Jewish and Mr and Mrs Starmer have chosen to bring up their children in the Jewish faith.They're teenagers I believe. As I'm sure most people are aware Friday evening's are quite important in the Jewish calendar for some it involves a special meal known as a Shabbat. I've no idea whether the Starmer's choose to have this but it's quite likely. Today Starmer said if at all possible he would like to spend Friday evening's with his family, he said obviously this wouldn't always be possible. Perfectly reasonable you would think, not if you're a Tory or a Tory enabling media shill. They've collectively thrown all their toys out of the pram with ludicrous assertions of part time prime minister etc. Odd they would get so excited given that when Theresa May was prime minister she built in " me time" every Saturday and every Sunday morning she did some sort of religious observance. Spaffer of course spent many of his evenings at parties or on holiday. Not a word was said about either. It's almost as if they're a bunch of hypocritical straw grasping bawbags It was well calibrated by Starmer as it's not 1987 and pretty much every voter will think it reasonable and desirable to finish work by 6pm on a Friday as a general rule whatever desperate hyperventilating the tory press come up with. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 17:09:20 GMT
Redfield Wilton
Undecided Voters
Which way do undecided voters (6% of the sample) lean closest to voting? (28 June – 2 July)
17% Labour
14% Conservative
11% Reform
10% Liberal Democrat
6% Green
13% Other
29% lean closest to NOT voting than to voting
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 2, 2024 17:43:04 GMT
While the LDs will undoubtedly hold O&S, there is some excitement in the campaign, with the REFUK candidate saying Sturgeon should be shot, and this "violent civil war" video from the SGP candidate.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 2, 2024 17:55:34 GMT
alec "Everyone becomes a policeman." trust me they wouldn't enjoy it☺ I don’t know that you’re supposed to enjoy it. Might be a good thing sometimes if not |
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Post by jib on Jul 2, 2024 17:56:34 GMT
Repost from last. Keir Starmer isn't as far as I know religious, however his wife is, she's Jewish and Mr and Mrs Starmer have chosen to bring up their children in the Jewish faith.They're teenagers I believe. As I'm sure most people are aware Friday evening's are quite important in the Jewish calendar for some it involves a special meal known as a Shabbat. I've no idea whether the Starmer's choose to have this but it's quite likely. Today Starmer said if at all possible he would like to spend Friday evening's with his family, he said obviously this wouldn't always be possible. Perfectly reasonable you would think, not if you're a Tory or a Tory enabling media shill. They've collectively thrown all their toys out of the pram with ludicrous assertions of part time prime minister etc. Odd they would get so excited given that when Theresa May was prime minister she built in " me time" every Saturday and every Sunday morning she did some sort of religious observance. Spaffer of course spent many of his evenings at parties or on holiday. Not a word was said about either. It's almost as if they're a bunch of hypocritical straw grasping bawbags It was well calibrated by Starmer as it's not 1987 and pretty much every voter will think it reasonable and desirable to finish work by 6pm on a Friday as a general rule whatever desperate hyperventilating the tory press come up with. Boris would be sending out his aides to the Off Licence by 6pm on a Friday for second helpings! Truss would be wondering where that bottle of Sauvignon vanished. Complete c**p from the Tory press. Beaten. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 2, 2024 17:58:50 GMT
Repost from last. Keir Starmer isn't as far as I know religious, however his wife is, she's Jewish and Mr and Mrs Starmer have chosen to bring up their children in the Jewish faith.They're teenagers I believe. Well if the new PM’s a teenager that’ll keep the ageists happy! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 18:09:17 GMT
Survation MRP - I'd take that 😀
NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 2, 2024 18:10:29 GMT
It was well calibrated by Starmer as it's not 1987 and pretty much every voter will think it reasonable and desirable to finish work by 6pm on a Friday as a general rule whatever desperate hyperventilating the tory press come up with. Boris would be sending out his aides to the Off Licence by 6pm on a Friday for second helpings! Truss would be wondering where that bottle of Sauvignon vanished. Complete c**p from the Tory press. Beaten. And we all remember 'box set Dave'. But of course it's one rule for them and another for everyone else, much like the leisure time heavy likes of Rees Mogg moaning that the proles don't work hard enough. |
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Post by peterbell on Jul 2, 2024 18:10:50 GMT
According to Sky there is a Survation MRP poll showing Tories on 64 seats. Near enough wipeout if this comes true
Edit beaten by Neilj
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 18:16:20 GMT
Survation MRP - I'd take that 😀 NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone Wow. Do you have a feel for typical sample numbers in MRPs, @neil? i.e. Is c35,000 typical? Something I always forget to look for, I'm afraid. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 18:21:01 GMT
Survation MRP - I'd take that 😀 NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone Wow. Do you have a feel for typical sample numbers in MRPs, @neil? i.e. Is c35,000 typical? Something I always forget to look for, I'm afraid. That's around the norm The MRP is based on a 42% Lab vote share and a 23% Tory one |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 18:23:02 GMT
Wow. Do you have a feel for typical sample numbers in MRPs, @neil? i.e. Is c35,000 typical? Something I always forget to look for, I'm afraid. That's around the norm, the MRP is based on a 42% Lab vote share and a 23% Tory one Thanks, neilj. Much obliged. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 2, 2024 18:28:23 GMT
Survation MRP - I'd take that 😀 NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone Wow. Do you have a feel for typical sample numbers in MRPs, @neil? i.e. Is c35,000 typical? Something I always forget to look for, I'm afraid. Not sure, but I think it might go up as high as 60k with Yougov? Anyways, close between Tories and LDs there for second spot! |
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Post by graham on Jul 2, 2024 18:31:33 GMT
This MRP survey shows Labour winning: Torridge, Louth, Grantham, Thirsk, Wetherby, Kenilworth, Stone, Mid Bucks, E.Grinstead, Sussex Weald, Weald of Kent and Kingswinford & Staffs S! I really do not think those seats will fall to Labour. Nor will the Greens win West Worcestershire!
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Post by peterbell on Jul 2, 2024 18:33:37 GMT
Sky reporting that House Democrat Lawmaker has publically called for Biden to step down as Democratic nominee. Let's hope more join him or her.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 18:44:40 GMT
Seat ranges for the Survation MRP, worth noting their top prediction for the tories has them under 100
LAB 447-517
CON 34-99
LD 49-73
SNP 3-21
REF 1-16
PC 1-6
GRE 1-6
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 2, 2024 18:46:53 GMT
Ok, so Daveywatch: today surfing in Cornwall Attachments:
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 18:52:41 GMT
I will note for the sake of crossbat11 that I was impressed by Worcestershire CCC's cunning strategy of appearing to be completely hopeless and lulling their opponents into a false sense of security, before cantering home with ease. I'm hoping Essex are secretly planning the same move against Surrey, although they are leaving it a bit late. I also note that "over the hill" Jimmy Anderson bowled 16 overs for Lancashire against Notts and wandered off with 7 wickets for 35 runs against his name. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 18:59:59 GMT
Survation MRP - I'd take that 😀 NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone I'm happy to stick with my decision to ignore all MRPs before the election - afterward it will be interesting to see which one did best. That forecast feels wrong. SNP and Con too low; Reform, Lab and LD too high. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Jul 2, 2024 19:02:20 GMT
This MRP survey shows Labour winning: Torridge, Louth, Grantham, Thirsk, Wetherby, Kenilworth, Stone, Mid Bucks, E.Grinstead, Sussex Weald, Weald of Kent and Kingswinford & Staffs S! I really do not think those seats will fall to Labour. Nor will the Greens win West Worcestershire! Indeed, I note also Rayleigh and Wickford and Castle Point are projected as Labour. That's an 'eat my hat' moment if it happens, but I don't see it. Canvey Island with a Labour MP? Now that has happened once in 1997. But Rayleigh has always been Conservative, with just three MPs since 1955. Well I guess it's possible if the Conservatives do get much less than 100, some very remarkable constituencies must fall, but to me it really does illustrate how unlikely that sort of result is. In the end, I still think they'll get well over 100. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 19:02:39 GMT
Ok, so Daveywatch: today surfing in Cornwall He's going to be the only person disappointed when this tedious election is over and he's forced to go back to work. |
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