2 Jul 2024 : LAB: 40% / CON: 20% / REF: 17% / LDEM: 13%

[RAF]

Jul 2, 2024 21:36:24 GMT alec said:

Got to say this, but I disagree with the calls about Sunak's attacks on Starmer's Friday nights being antisemitic. I think this is a case of shoe horning antisemitism into politics, something that to be honest, we see far too much. Not only is it wrong, but it doesn't do anything for Jews and the genuine prejudice and sometime violence that they suffer from.

Starmer made his Friday work reference, initially I think (?) without reference to religious rituals. Sunak, who I don't believe to be remotely antisemitic, grabbed at this to try and score a point, whence the religious elements were revealed. Even if I've got this wrong, and Sunak was well aware of why Starmer does this when he made his comments, are we really saying that the Tories, who made years of allegations of antisemitism against Labour, are now doing likewise?

As with Corbyn's comments on a poster that was meant to look a bit Jewish, we need to accept that sometimes people make ill judged statements that in retrospect can be linked in some way to other, much more serious, prejudices.

I am saying these Tories don't care - anything goes when it comes to attacking someone they don't like, or for political gain. They don't think they have to think through what they are doing before doing it. The ends justify the means.

[alec]

Struggling to accept these MRP predictions, although given Cons on 20-24% in most polls, I guess a meltdown of that kind of order should really be expected, if that's what the final result looks like.

I say this as someone who predicted the day after Johnson's triumph in 2019 that Tories were on thin ice and were far weaker and more under threat than anyone realised. I always predicted they were likely to struggle whenever the next GE came, but I still find it hard to accept a defeat as crushing as the Survation MRP suggests.

[crossbat11]

Jul 2, 2024 18:52:41 GMT pjw1961 said:

I will note for the sake of crossbat11 that I was impressed by Worcestershire CCC's cunning strategy of appearing to be completely hopeless and lulling their opponents into a false sense of security, before cantering home with ease. I'm hoping Essex are secretly planning the same move against Surrey, although they are leaving it a bit late.

I also note that "over the hill" Jimmy Anderson bowled 16 overs for Lancashire against Notts and wandered off with 7 wickets for 35 runs against his name.

We did the rather unusual thing of selecting our two best players, Kashif Ali and the Kiwi Nathan Smith in the same side. One or other, or sometimes both of them, have been either injured or "rested" in nearly every four day game we've played this season.

Shock headline. Worcestershire play their strongest side and look half decent.

[alec]

pjw1961 (& RAF) - "I agree it was not antisemitic, but it was damn stupid and seems to have backfired on the Tories, which serves the b*****s right."

I just think it was inept. Attacking an opponent for wanting to spend a bit of time with his family? Stupid, petty, desperate. Not antisemitic, but Labour played that card, and I wish they hadn't. It degrades all the genuine campaigning against racism and prejudice, wheeling the A word out for a quick hit.

[peterbell]

Jul 2, 2024 21:36:24 GMT alec said:

Got to say this, but I disagree with the calls about Sunak's attacks on Starmer's Friday nights being antisemitic. I think this is a case of shoe horning antisemitism into politics, something that to be honest, we see far too much. Not only is it wrong, but it doesn't do anything for Jews and the genuine prejudice and sometime violence that they suffer from.

Starmer made his Friday work reference, initially I think (?) without reference to religious rituals. Sunak, who I don't believe to be remotely antisemitic, grabbed at this to try and score a point, whence the religious elements were revealed. Even if I've got this wrong, and Sunak was well aware of why Starmer does this when he made his comments, are we really saying that the Tories, who made years of allegations of antisemitism against Labour, are now doing likewise?

As with Corbyn's comments on a poster that was meant to look a bit Jewish, we need to accept that sometimes people make ill judged statements that in retrospect can be linked in some way to other, much more serious, prejudices.

I very much doubt that the Tories did not know that an important reason behind Starmer's comment about having a Friday evening with his family was for religious reasons.  It is well known that Starmers wife is Jewish and that the children are being brought up in the faith.  I would also have thought that many people will also be aware that many, if not all, practising Jews celibrate with a meal on a Friday night.  My recollection is that this is associated with the Jewish Passover.

While it is difficult to accuse the Tories of direct antisemitism as they have not directly referred to the Jewish aspect of his desire, when feasible, to be with the family on a Friday evening, it is nevertheless unacceptable criticsm.  Together with other recent comments, it shows how desperate the Tories are.  I suspect and hope that this desperation will backfire on them. 

[crossbat11]

That was a magnificent game between Austria and Turkey tonight.

I wonder if we now have a genuine rival to that immortal Banks save in Guadalajara in the World Cup of 1970? Pele's header thwarted. The Turkey goalkeepers last minute save tonight was one of the greatest I think I've ever seen.

Athleticism, agility and manual dexterity at an extraordinary level

Magnificent.

[alec]

peterbell - Given how inept the Conservative campaign has been from start to finish, I'm severely doubtful that any of the teenagers in charge gave Starmer's wife's religion the remotest thought.

Remember how no one inside No 10 thought to check the Met Office rainfall radar the day he called the election? We're looking at that level of incompetence throughout. Flip it round the other way; to launch such an attack using implied criticism of an opponents religion requires an element of thought. There has been no thought evident anywhere in this campaign.

[mercian]

alec
I haven't been following the "I'd like a night off occasionally saga" but if it was Labour who started talking about anti-semitism it could backfire because there are anti-semitic voters who may not have realised that Starmer's wife is Jewish.

We seem to be seeing a growing religious influence in our politics. It's a slippery slope. Not too long ago when the population was mainly at least nominally Christian it wasn't an issue except in a few places between Catholics and Protestants.

Now that there are so many members of other religions in the UK it can be. There was rioting in Leicester over Kashmir, which is a conflict on largely religious lines and nothing to do with the UK (now). We know what religious bigotry can do in Northern Ireland. I see little sign of any politician being even aware of the potential problems on the mainland.

[norbold]

Jul 2, 2024 22:10:35 GMT peterbell said:

I very much doubt that the Tories did not know that an important reason behind Starmer's comment about having a Friday evening with his family was for religious reasons.  It is well known that Starmers wife is Jewish and that the children are being brought up in the faith.  I would also have thought that many people will also be aware that many, if not all, practising Jews celibrate with a meal on a Friday night.  My recollection is that this is associated with the Jewish Passover.

Nothing to do with Passover. It is the same reason that Christians keep Sundays holy (in theory). On the seventh day, He rested. In Christianity that's Sunday, in Judaism that's Saturday which starts after dark on Friday night.

[mercian]

Jul 2, 2024 22:17:26 GMT alec said:

peterbell - Given how inept the Conservative campaign has been from start to finish, I'm severely doubtful that any of the teenagers in charge gave Starmer's wife's religion the remotest thought.

Remember how no one inside No 10 thought to check the Met Office rainfall radar the day he called the election? We're looking at that level of incompetence throughout. Flip it round the other way; to launch such an attack using implied criticism of an opponents religion requires an element of thought. There has been no thought evident anywhere in this campaign.

I know nothing about the internal workings of the Conservative campaign, but as you say it at least appears to be run by teenagers. They might be very energetic and enthusiastic but if they have little knowledge of the real world gaffes will continue to be made. 

[Deleted]

Jul 2, 2024 20:02:43 GMT robbiealive said:

Jul 2, 2024 19:49:40 GMT graham said:

A la recherche du temps perdu a Clac-ton
My Dear norbold , I'm sorry I made myself so unclear. What I was trying to say was I have v much enjoyed the constituency reports from actvists, esp the dark side of the business in Clacton. But I will be glad when it's all over & we hear less of Clacton, i.e., Faridge. My close colleague pjw1961 says if he wins we will hear a great deal. But the HOC has a way of suffocating one-off MPs without a party base & Faridge will find it much harder to escape the normal debating rules. 
I was v glad to see you back for the election. 
As I have said the slots on Clacton pier were my dream destination as a small child. I worked one Christnas at the Butlins with a friend who lived in Clacton. The managers were so pissed when it was all over we mangaed to fiddle our overtime. My friend & I had a Heinkel bubble car, a 3 wheeled coffin. We ran it about 4 times along the promenade, to the scorn of the onlookers. He was obsessed with being a DJ & we used to sit in a car on the front flashing the headlights in communication with the pirate radio stations, a tedious business. 

Shame you didn't hang on to it. A nice one now goes for about 17 grand.

www.ebay.co.uk/itm/135118006288

[mercian]

@isa
How do you know he (or his friend) didn't?

[oldnat]

Jul 2, 2024 21:45:13 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 2, 2024 21:28:44 GMT RAF said:

This is shocking and brutal. I'm speechless.

Its why I felt obliged to go and help in Clacton, even if only for a few hours. 

Btw - Labour HQ turned off the Braintree and Witham CLPs access to central systems during the campaign to try and impede our activities, but have now switched them on again in light of how close Witham is. I see Boris Johnson has recorded a video for his acolyte Priti Patel to try and save her, which tends to confirm it's close. 

Knowing this might happen, certain counter-measures had been taken, which I shall reveal after the election is over. 

Looking forward to the reveal!

[oldnat]

Jul 2, 2024 21:57:23 GMT RAF said:

Jul 2, 2024 21:36:24 GMT alec said:

I am saying these Tories don't care - anything goes when it comes to attacking someone they don't like, or for political gain. They don't think they have to think through what they are doing before doing it. The ends justify the means.

True - but that applies equally to every other party.

[oldnat]

Jul 2, 2024 21:57:33 GMT alec said:

Struggling to accept these MRP predictions, although given Cons on 20-24% in most polls, I guess a meltdown of that kind of order should really be expected, if that's what the final result looks like.

I say this as someone who predicted the day after Johnson's triumph in 2019 that Tories were on thin ice and were far weaker and more under threat than anyone realised. I always predicted they were likely to struggle whenever the next GE came, but I still find it hard to accept a defeat as crushing as the Survation MRP suggests.

Since two consecutive Survation MRPs suggested that the SNP would win 37 seats, and the next one, a few days later, that they would only win 10, we might suspect that their methodology, at least, doesn't pass the robustness test.

[Deleted]

Jul 2, 2024 22:32:21 GMT norbold said:

Jul 2, 2024 22:10:35 GMT peterbell said:

I very much doubt that the Tories did not know that an important reason behind Starmer's comment about having a Friday evening with his family was for religious reasons.  It is well known that Starmers wife is Jewish and that the children are being brought up in the faith.  I would also have thought that many people will also be aware that many, if not all, practising Jews celibrate with a meal on a Friday night.  My recollection is that this is associated with the Jewish Passover.

Nothing to do with Passover. It is the same reason that Christians keep Sundays holy (in theory). On the seventh day, He rested. In Christianity that's Sunday, in Judaism that's Saturday which starts after dark on Friday night.

I think the concept has generally been brought to a wider audience in recent years via the brilliant C4 sitcom "Friday Night Dinner". 

[RAF]

Jul 2, 2024 23:07:29 GMT oldnat said:

Jul 2, 2024 21:57:23 GMT RAF said:

I am saying these Tories don't care - anything goes when it comes to attacking someone they don't like, or for political gain. They don't think they have to think through what they are doing before doing it. The ends justify the means.

True - but that applies equally to every other party.

I believe the last 5 years have been different to what I have seen before. Maybe other parties do this too but there is a real exceptionalism to the way in which the Boris Tories and post-Boris Tories have done it.

[ping]

[oldnat]

Jul 2, 2024 23:14:06 GMT RAF said:

Jul 2, 2024 23:07:29 GMT oldnat said:

True - but that applies equally to every other party.

I believe the last 5 years have been different to what I have seen before. Maybe other parties do this too but there is a real exceptionalism to the way in which the Boris Tories and post-Boris Tories have done it.

Possibly - but you don't live in Scotland!

Parties in opposition to an existentialist threat to their state, can behave somewhat differently than they do where no such threat exists.

[Deleted]

Jul 2, 2024 22:48:08 GMT mercian said:

@isa
How do you know he (or his friend) didn't?

I don't, but I'm guessing not. However, I know my father bought a similar Messerschmitt bubble car as a cheap runabout in the late '60s for about £25 and sold it a year or so later for a similar amount. It was great fun to ride in. A nice one of those is worth about £25k now.

[oldnat]

Jul 2, 2024 23:18:49 GMT ping said:

View Attachment

Not to criticise you, but I made the point about campaign slogans degenerating into a meaningless single syllable (no matter how elongated), some time back.

[eor]

Jul 2, 2024 21:57:33 GMT alec said:

Struggling to accept these MRP predictions, although given Cons on 20-24% in most polls, I guess a meltdown of that kind of order should really be expected, if that's what the final result looks like.

I say this as someone who predicted the day after Johnson's triumph in 2019 that Tories were on thin ice and were far weaker and more under threat than anyone realised. I always predicted they were likely to struggle whenever the next GE came, but I still find it hard to accept a defeat as crushing as the Survation MRP suggests.

To be fair, you've been arguing that consistently on here since at least 2011, and the intervening years have mostly been quite unkind to your theory of electoral doom  
  

[lens]

Jul 2, 2024 21:36:24 GMT alec said:

Got to say this, but I disagree with the calls about Sunak's attacks on Starmer's Friday nights being antisemitic. I think this is a case of shoe horning antisemitism into politics, something that to be honest, we see far too much. Not only is it wrong, but it doesn't do anything for Jews and the genuine prejudice and sometime violence that they suffer from.

Have to agree. Any Jewish or antisemitic reference totally escaped me until pointed out. I just took the Friday evening reference to mean "end of the working week".

I think Starmer missed a trick not coming back with something along the lines of "of course, if the occasion demands it, then certainly I'll work into the weekend" - which frankly I took as read anyway, and I suspect most people will.

[oldnat]

In simple polling methodology terms, the actual results in Scotland will be an interesting test of weighting VI polls by a 10 year old referendum result.

Labour has gained votes from the SNP - I'm sure of that, but the accuracy of polling will be worth examining. That might also have implications for pollsters weighting GB polls by the Brexit referendum.

[eor]

On the French first round results... like shevii I also haven't found a site with a lovely table of all the data, but this is a reasonable compromise as it groups the seats by certain types of outcome and lets you click through them;

www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/02/legislatives-2024-pour-faire-barrage-au-rn-195-candidats-et-candidates-se-sont-deja-desistes-suivez-le-decompte-en-temps-reel_6245837_4355771.html

From what I've looked through on here so far (the first 50 seats involving candidate withdrawals, and the seats that remain three-way contests in the second round) several things seem fairly clear;

Firstly, that almost all the withdrawals by the left alliance were simply acknowledging political reality (and saving some money along the way). The same party alliance factors that have created so many 3-way seats this time around have also meant that in very many seats there's almost nothing left to squeeze on the second round, so in very many cases it would be pointless for the third-place party to carry on as there aren't anywhere near enough votes left below them to get them to first. In seats where the third-placed candidate has dropped out, the top three parties typically had 85-97% of the vote.

Secondly, where Macron's guys have stayed in despite coming third, it's in a really small number of seats and whilst there are a couple of inexplicable ones, mostly they are three-way marginals where they could conceivably win in the second round if they can take more ROC vote than either of the others.

Thirdly, the sample of results I looked at seemed to confirm that Macron's gamble in calling the election backfired badly - out of the 50 seats I looked at where three candidates qualified for the second round and one has withdrawn, Macron's guys withdrew from third place in 25 of those, and of those 25 their average deficit to the left alliance candidate was 5%, with 12 of them being under 2% behind. A little bit better in VI would it seems have made a lot of difference in how this second round now looks.

[oldnat]

[Danny]

Jul 2, 2024 21:36:24 GMT alec said:

Starmer made his Friday work reference, initially I think (?) without reference to religious rituals. Sunak, who I don't believe to be remotely antisemitic, grabbed at this to try and score a point, whence the religious elements were revealed. Even if I've got this wrong, and Sunak was well aware of why Starmer does this when he made his comments, are we really saying that the Tories, who made years of allegations of antisemitism against Labour, are now doing likewise?

I remember over the years polling that con have consistently been more antisemitic than labour. The difference is that labour worry about it and con do not. The idea of raising antisemitism within the labour party is to turn voters worried about antisemitism away from the labour party, whereas this isnt likely to work if tried the other way around.

I thought it was pretty stupid trying to attack Starmer for putting aside some time reserved for his family. Makes no sense as an attack, it paints him as caring. Newsnight reported con are defending only seats with 60%+ of the vote at the last election.... which seems very desperate and a real indicator of what they believe the situation to be. Then the question becomes just what would you need to say to try to get those people to stay with con, people living in very very tory areas in normal circumstances. Not least considering that they are under attack by Farage and Reform who are presumably taking the more extreme right voters. So need to try to get them back.

Given that, then would it be useful to suggest Starmer was pro Jew? This in the context of a campaign which is arguing the desperate need to prevent labour getting a supermajority and locking in labour rule for a lifetime. And arguing the only way to prevent this is to get more conservative MPs.

As Prime minister, Sunak is expected to lie and cheat on behalf of his MPs, thats the nature of the job and what made Johnson so well suited. His style though was to kinda admit he was lying, and make a joke of how its expected. Sunak does indeed come across as more serious. But bottom line, his job description is to do whatever stupid thing his advisors or party consensus says might help them. You do wonder if there are labour moles amongst them, but perhaps it has more to do with trying to appeal to minority groups of voters.

People try to make jokes against Ed Davey for his water themed campaign. But its a lot more friendly in a family fun sort of way than anything the conservatives have come out with so far.  Worst case scenario, conservatives are facing destruction of their party.  The best I can see from the polling is that there is a big range of disagreement where we are so it cannot be seen as reliable, but desperation must be setting in.  If the result comes out at the better end of the range, well any strange antics now can be brushed under the carpet. But if the true result is the bad end of results for con, then pretty much anything would be worth a shot right now, and if you cannot be sure what the real situation is, then might be best to assume the worst and act accordingly.

A long way round saying the conservatives abandoned the centre years ago, and now have to fight Farage for the extreme right.

[eor]

Meanwhile, over the pond... two different pictures on polling reality.

Firstly, on the national polls... some of the aggregator numbers are moving sharply towards Trump but that's once again an artefact of who is reporting recently. The individual polls are still showing no clear movement from the last time they reported.

www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Secondly, on the state polls... there are a couple of polls giving Trump a decent lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but they are one poll each and won't have spooked people half as much as the ones showing ties or narrow leads in New Hampshire and New Jersey. Those are also one poll each, but they'll get inside people's heads more, cos the more the map expands on the blue side, the more problematic it is, both in terms of the chances of holding onto everything that's needed to win, and having a candidate who doesn't want to fly around as constantly as usual.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/

[Danny]

Jul 2, 2024 21:52:49 GMT jib said:

One own goal to the next, starting with the National Service nonsense

But then you might stop to wonder if con began always assuming this would be a disaster. That National service was never designed to appeal to the left or centre, but to the extreme right, who from the outset they believed they needed to neutralise. In that context, it might not be an own goal.

[oldnat]

Why does a wee boy have military medals?
Was he out fighting to maintain his family privileges and wealth?