c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 2, 2024 19:09:10 GMT
Ok, so Daveywatch: today surfing in Cornwall He's going to be the only person disappointed when this tedious election is over and he's forced to go back to work. I’m going to miss it when it’s over. If it’s over. I mean, it doesn’t have to end does it? People work from home these days, they work from the beach. I think it’s very modern… |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 19:13:01 GMT
I don't think we have had this Welsh poll:
"The Conservatives have slumped to a record low in Wales, according to an exclusive ITV Cymru Wales poll which shows the party is neck-and-neck with support for Nigel Farage's Reform UK. A Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University has revealed that the Conservatives' predicted vote share in the General Election - 16% - would be lower than the amount they won in 1997 (19.6%) which saw not a single Welsh Conservative MP elected. It is the Conservatives' worst ever YouGov poll result in Wales and, if replicated on election day, would represent the worst Conservative performance in Wales since the 1918 General Election. The Barn Cymru poll suggested that 40% of people in Wales would vote for Labour in the upcoming General Election, down 5% since our previous poll in June."
Westminster voting intention (MRP model) and comparison to June poll result:
Labour: 40% (-5)
Conservatives: 16% (-2)
Reform UK: 16% (+3)
Plaid Cymru: 14% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 7% (+2)
Green: 5% (+1)
Other: 2% (+1)
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 2, 2024 19:14:17 GMT
Ok, so Daveywatch: today surfing in Cornwall He's going to be the only person disappointed when this tedious election is over and he's forced to go back to work. Not if he ends up with 60 MPs. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 2, 2024 19:14:42 GMT
Survation MRP - I'd take that 😀 NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone I'm happy to stick with my decision to ignore all MRPs before the election - afterward it will be interesting to see which one did best. That forecast feels wrong. SNP and Con too low; Reform, Lab and LD too high. I very much agree with that. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 2, 2024 19:19:59 GMT
Ok, so Daveywatch: today surfing in Cornwall He's going to be the only person disappointed when this tedious election is over and he's forced to go back to work. It is all very well 'having a bit of fun', but I feel that it distracts from the serious nature of a General Election and as a result he somehow fails to 'look the part.' I find it difficult to imagine Jo Grimond , David Steel, Paddy Ashdown or Charles Kennedy behaving like this on an ongoing basis. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 19:21:34 GMT
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Post by norbold on Jul 2, 2024 19:24:15 GMT
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 2, 2024 19:49:40 GMT
That article says it all.
Labour HQ sound every bit as sinister as the Tories.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 2, 2024 20:00:49 GMT
Looks like good news x.com/DaveKeating/status/1808202629300081025NEW: Macron's centrists & left-wing alliance have reportedly agreed to form a united front to defeat the far right. 200 candidates from both just pulled out of 2nd round, leaving just contenders with best chance of beating Le Pen’s nationalist candidates. |
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Post by robbiealive on Jul 2, 2024 20:02:43 GMT
That article says it all. My Dear norbold , I'm sorry I made myself so unclear. What I was trying to say was I have v much enjoyed the constituency reports from actvists, esp the dark side of the business in Clacton. But I will be glad when it's all over & we hear less of Clacton, i.e., Faridge. My close colleague pjw1961 says if he wins we will hear a great deal. But the HOC has a way of suffocating one-off MPs without a party base & Faridge will find it much harder to escape the normal debating rules. I was v glad to see you back for the election. As I have said the slots on Clacton pier were my dream destination as a small child. I worked one Christnas at the Butlins with a friend who lived in Clacton. The managers were so pissed when it was all over we mangaed to fiddle our overtime. My friend & I had a Heinkel bubble car, a 3 wheeled coffin. We ran it about 4 times along the promenade, to the scorn of the onlookers. He was obsessed with being a DJ & we used to sit in a car on the front flashing the headlights in communication with the pirate radio stations, a tedious business. |
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RAF
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Post by RAF on Jul 2, 2024 20:07:31 GMT
The Tories can't help themselves. When Starmer said he likes to spend Fridays evenings with his family, it was obvious what he meant, and why.
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 2, 2024 20:13:03 GMT
The Tories can't help themselves. When Starmer said he likes to spend Fridays evenings with his family, it was obvious what he meant, and why. Yep, it is an antisemitic dog whistle. Funny that the Daily Mail doesn't call that out isn't it? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 2, 2024 20:18:05 GMT
In how low can you go news. The Tory election campaign in Torbay has accused the lib dem candidate Steve Darling of pretending to be blind for electoral purposes. Darling has been registered blind since a child in 1986.  |
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Post by mercian on Jul 2, 2024 20:25:16 GMT
That really is shocking, and I'm not saying that because it makes Labour head office look bad, it just seems so unfair on someone who appears to be a very good candidate. I know politics is a dirty game but that seems very poor. N.B. "very poor" to me is about the most damning thing I can say. I thought it necessary to explain because we all seem to have very different ways of expressing ourselves. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 20:26:18 GMT
alec "Everyone becomes a policeman." trust me they wouldn't enjoy it☺ Nobody trusts a policeman (or woman). |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 20:29:18 GMT
This MRP survey shows Labour winning: Torridge, Louth, Grantham, Thirsk, Wetherby, Kenilworth, Stone, Mid Bucks, E.Grinstead, Sussex Weald, Weald of Kent and Kingswinford & Staffs S! I really do not think those seats will fall to Labour. Nor will the Greens win West Worcestershire! I’ve put that into the my final results Graham. Ta. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 2, 2024 20:55:04 GMT
Turkey into the Quarter Finals. That should please England, since the Brexiteers said that the entire population of Turkey were going to become English.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 2, 2024 21:06:51 GMT
Polldrums in NI, as they vote in an election to send (some) representatives overseas.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 21:28:37 GMT
pjw1961“ I'm happy to stick with my decision to ignore all MRPs before the election - afterward it will be interesting to see which one did best. That forecast feels wrong. SNP and Con too low; Reform, Lab and LD too high.” Excellent job of ignoring it PJ. Well done.
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RAF
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Post by RAF on Jul 2, 2024 21:28:44 GMT
This is shocking and brutal. I'm speechless. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 21:30:55 GMT
Turkey into the Quarter Finals. That should please England, since the Brexiteers said that the entire population of Turkey were going to become English. At times when Austria had the ball it sounded like the entire population of Turkey were inside the stadium!  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 21:32:14 GMT
pjw1961 “ I'm happy to stick with my decision to ignore all MRPs before the election - afterward it will be interesting to see which one did best. That forecast feels wrong. SNP and Con too low; Reform, Lab and LD too high.” Excellent job of ignoring it PJ. Well done. Be fair, I could have ignored it at much greater length. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 21:33:13 GMT
He's going to be the only person disappointed when this tedious election is over and he's forced to go back to work. It is all very well 'having a bit of fun', but I feel that it distracts from the serious nature of a General Election and as a result he somehow fails to 'look the part.' I find it difficult to imagine Jo Grimond , David Steel, Paddy Ashdown or Charles Kennedy behaving like this on an ongoing basis. I definitely think that fun is overrated and there should be strict limits on enjoyment - especially overt laughing, which can be very irritating.  |
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Post by alec on Jul 2, 2024 21:36:24 GMT
Got to say this, but I disagree with the calls about Sunak's attacks on Starmer's Friday nights being antisemitic. I think this is a case of shoe horning antisemitism into politics, something that to be honest, we see far too much. Not only is it wrong, but it doesn't do anything for Jews and the genuine prejudice and sometime violence that they suffer from.
Starmer made his Friday work reference, initially I think (?) without reference to religious rituals. Sunak, who I don't believe to be remotely antisemitic, grabbed at this to try and score a point, whence the religious elements were revealed. Even if I've got this wrong, and Sunak was well aware of why Starmer does this when he made his comments, are we really saying that the Tories, who made years of allegations of antisemitism against Labour, are now doing likewise?
As with Corbyn's comments on a poster that was meant to look a bit Jewish, we need to accept that sometimes people make ill judged statements that in retrospect can be linked in some way to other, much more serious, prejudices.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 21:45:13 GMT
This is shocking and brutal. I'm speechless. Its why I felt obliged to go and help in Clacton, even if only for a few hours. Btw - Labour HQ turned off the Braintree and Witham CLPs access to central systems during the campaign to try and impede our activities, but have now switched them on again in light of how close Witham is. I see Boris Johnson has recorded a video for his acolyte Priti Patel to try and save her, which tends to confirm it's close. Knowing this might happen, certain counter-measures had been taken, which I shall reveal after the election is over. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 2, 2024 21:47:20 GMT
Less a full tale, more a vignette from the campaign trail in Redditch and the Villages. Very much the villages in this case too, rather than the sprawling metropolis of my old home town.
As Bloore's Man in the Vale of Evesham, I was charged with the delivery of leaflets, described as " promise cards", to specific addresses in the newly acquired villages and hamlets of Harvington, Norton, Lenchwick, Chadbury and Sherrif's Lench. Places once in the Mid Worcestershire constituency but now consumed in the redrawn Redditch seat.
The addresses were far flung and stretched over long walking distances. My chosen car parking places, not helped by makeshift and misleading maps provided by the Labour campaign team, tended to be in unhelpful locations, often necessitating circuitous and duplicated walks attempting to find obscure closes and country lanes.
The exercise took about five hours to complete, including a pit stop in the Golden Cross at Harvington, and I estimated I must have walked about 7 miles. I needed Carfers pedometer to verify this estimate.
Leafleting is a non contact campaigning sport, but I did bump into one or two people tending gardens or working in garages. My contact with them was primarily to ask them to clarify where the bloody hell I was vis-a-vis the addresses I was seeking. They usually provided invaluable guidance.
Wandering fairly aimlessly down a road, looking vaguely lost, which I usually was, I was accosted by a middle aged gentleman who'd observed me at some address in the locality a little earlier. He crossed the road in an entirely non-threatening way, and asked if I was working for the Labour Party.
When I put my homemade cosh away, once I'd realised no violence was likely to be forthcoming, we engaged in an amiable conversation about the election. He was a lifelong Lib Dem voter who was used to wasting his vote in the old Mid Worcestershire constituency where no realistic rival to the sitting Tory MP ever materialised. However, now his vote may count in Redditch, he said he was voting tactically and lending his vote to Labour. I thanked him for his decision, suggesting it was a wise one.
One or two Labour garden signs and window notices observed, but nothing for MacLean. All rather sullen and calm.
I posted a brief note on the Redditch election campaign WhatsApp group, telling them that my mammoth task was completed and quickly received a "Thanks Nicholas" note in reply from the Labour candidate Chris Bloore. I was quite chuffed.
Should he become MP, and then maybe get a job in Starmer's government, I wonder if he'll one day recommend me for an honour for my bucolic ambulant marathon today? He might win by 50 and it was Chadbury wot wun it.
Labour's first scandal. "Leaflets for Honours" screams the Daily Mail headline.
Less than 48 hours now to that exit poll.
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 2, 2024 21:47:47 GMT
I definitely think that fun is overrated and there should be strict limits on enjoyment - especially overt laughing, which can be very irritating. Killjoy (was there) |
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Post by jib on Jul 2, 2024 21:52:49 GMT
Almost time for final predictions.
For the Tories, it has been a completely inept campaign. One own goal to the next, starting with the National Service nonsense followed by the Betting Scandal.
Labour...I don't think they had to do much (Ming Vase)? SNP seem competent, ditto Plaid. LDs have drawn attention to their existence. Greens struggled.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 21:54:30 GMT
I should add that I’m not against the occasional smile.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 2, 2024 21:54:54 GMT
Got to say this, but I disagree with the calls about Sunak's attacks on Starmer's Friday nights being antisemitic. I think this is a case of shoe horning antisemitism into politics, something that to be honest, we see far too much. Not only is it wrong, but it doesn't do anything for Jews and the genuine prejudice and sometime violence that they suffer from. Starmer made his Friday work reference, initially I think (?) without reference to religious rituals. Sunak, who I don't believe to be remotely antisemitic, grabbed at this to try and score a point, whence the religious elements were revealed. Even if I've got this wrong, and Sunak was well aware of why Starmer does this when he made his comments, are we really saying that the Tories, who made years of allegations of antisemitism against Labour, are now doing likewise? As with Corbyn's comments on a poster that was meant to look a bit Jewish, we need to accept that sometimes people make ill judged statements that in retrospect can be linked in some way to other, much more serious, prejudices. I agree it was not antisemitic, but it was damn stupid and seems to have backfired on the Tories, which serves the b*****s right. |
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