domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 20:29:24 GMT
Just for comfort's sake... I remember someone saying exit polls haven't been more than x% out for decades. Can anyone remember what it was? I think tactical voting and the rise of Reform is going to make this harder to predict than normal. I wouldn't be surprised if even the exit poll will prove somewhat inaccurate over the course of the night - although still better than a VI poll, because you are asking people what they have actually done rather than what they might theoretically do. I don't think that was the answer we were hoping for! |
|
|
|
Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 20:30:11 GMT
Just voted.
Turnout was good. Not EU Ref good (never seen anything like that before or since!). The current projected estimates of 65-66% seem about right.
|
|
|
|
Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 20:31:15 GMT
With the likely defeat of Jeremy Corbyn tonight by a virtually unknown Labour candidate, I started to wonder whether any current MP (or candidate) could win a seat in a General Election as an Independent. Farage is the only one that springs to mind (and only at the 6th or 7th attempt). Any others I may have missed? Dick Taverne? Who I am happily surprised is still alive at 95. Kicked out of Labour and won after forming a new party (of one I think) For a moment I thought you said Chris Tavare, who I'm sure played for England. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 20:33:21 GMT
I think tactical voting and the rise of Reform is going to make this harder to predict than normal. I wouldn't be surprised if even the exit poll will prove somewhat inaccurate over the course of the night - although still better than a VI poll, because you are asking people what they have actually done rather than what they might theoretically do. I don't think that was the answer we were hoping for! As long as the exit poll people's 130 seats have a good proportion of ones that voted for Brexit/Reform in previous years I'm sure they'll maintain their excellent recent record. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 20:34:02 GMT
NOW IS THE WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT MADE GLORIOUS SUMMER…. ☀️ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  By this son of a toolmaker? 😉 I didn’t know that. |
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 20:34:05 GMT
Just for comfort's sake... I remember someone saying exit polls haven't been more than x% out for decades. Can anyone remember what it was? I think tactical voting and the rise of Reform is going to make this harder to predict than normal. I wouldn't be surprised if even the exit poll will prove somewhat inaccurate over the course of the night - although still better than a VI poll, because you are asking people what they have actually done rather than what they might theoretically do. Agree, but 'shy Tories' are likely to still be shy even after voting. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 20:34:45 GMT
Not my experience in Braintree - it is almost eerily quiet. I expect turnout to be very low. However, one oddity - more than usual numbers of younger people voting. It is the older cohort that have gone missing. Tory abstainers perhaps? A lot of old folks voting here in Smethwick. It's rock-solid Labour but my little bit is often Tory in locals. I’m sure it is… |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 20:34:49 GMT
I think tactical voting and the rise of Reform is going to make this harder to predict than normal. I wouldn't be surprised if even the exit poll will prove somewhat inaccurate over the course of the night - although still better than a VI poll, because you are asking people what they have actually done rather than what they might theoretically do. I don't think that was the answer we were hoping for! Depends what they* say * I assume there will be two as usual. |
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on Jul 4, 2024 20:35:05 GMT
Carfew - "Get The Vino Out?"
That's now am back with a lovely Carmenere that has been airing for an hour or 2.... for starters.
|
|
|
|
Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 20:37:17 GMT
With less than 30 min to go and before the posting becomes hectic again, can I say a big thank you to all those who have contributed here during the past 6 weeks. I have certainly found it very interesting even if it has been difficult to keep up.
Can I also say to Crofty and Batty that I hope their sabbaticals are very short lived and that they are back posting very soon. Ideally they will miss posting very quickly and we will be able to enjoy their contributions once again.
|
|
|
|
Post by James E on Jul 4, 2024 20:39:05 GMT
Just for comfort's sake... I remember someone saying exit polls haven't been more than x% out for decades. Can anyone remember what it was? I remembered the 2015 exit poll understated the Tories seats by about 15. Most have been more accurate than that. However, this is an especially difficult election to model, and the margin of error for seats may be wider this time. I think the final You Gov MRP is the most trustworthy guide we have at the moment - it was posted by Shevii yesterday on page 10 of this thread. Their full write up is well worth a read. |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 20:39:58 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 20:41:01 GMT
With the likely defeat of Jeremy Corbyn tonight by a virtually unknown Labour candidate, I started to wonder whether any current MP (or candidate) could win a seat in a General Election as an Independent. Farage is the only one that springs to mind (and only at the 6th or 7th attempt). Any others I may have missed? Tonight Corbyn is again odds on to win. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 20:42:52 GMT
Dick Taverne? Who I am happily surprised is still alive at 95. Kicked out of Labour and won after forming a new party (of one I think) For a moment I thought you said Chris Tavare, who I'm sure played for England. Now I'm forced to tell my favorite Tavare story. On the 1981/82 England tour of India the 5th test match was heading toward an inevitable draw on a flat pitch, so Keith Fletcher, the England captain, said to his opening batsmen: "Just go out there and enjoy yourselves." Graham Gooch reached 50 off 46 balls and 100 off 139. Chris Tavare batted five and a half hours for 35! |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 20:45:14 GMT
For services to being completely useless at everything. |
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 20:45:33 GMT
Channel 4 coverage just starting, not long now.
|
|
Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
|
Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2024 20:45:51 GMT
Huge polling news!!!!!!!!!!!!! Well ... whilst we're waiting for the less important stuff about 190 West Ham fans have voted on our best fans site. The result, maybe doesn't live up to the stereotypes ...
Labour: 47%
Reform: 15%
Greens: 9%
LibDems: 8%
Tories: 7%
I'd take that in 15 minutes time.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 20:46:58 GMT
For a moment I thought you said Chris Tavare, who I'm sure played for England. Now I'm forced to tell my favorite Tavare story. On the 1981/82 England tour of India the 5th test match was heading toward an inevitable draw on flat pitch, so Keith Fletcher, the England captain, said to his opening batsmen: "Just go out there and enjoy yourselves." Graham Gooch reached 50 off 46 balls and 100 off 139. Chris Tavare batted five and a half hours for 35! You have a favourite Tavare story?? I don’t have any. Well I mean, I do have one now, thanks to you PJ. (Now I have to find an opportunity to use it…) Meanwhile… Not long now till the exit poll. I keep dreaming of Tories getting under 70 seats, but I know that’s at the more extreme end of predictions. (Doesn’t seem that extreme to me tho’. Fifty seems more than they deserve to me tbh…) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 20:49:40 GMT
With less than 30 min to go and before the posting becomes hectic again, can I say a big thank you to all those who have contributed here during the past 6 weeks. I have certainly found it very interesting even if it has been difficult to keep up. Can I also say to Crofty and Batty that I hope their sabbaticals are very short lived and that they are back posting very soon. Ideally they will miss posting very quickly and we will be able to enjoy their contributions once again. I don't post much but once the dust has settled I plan to give the site a rest after reading it pretty much every day for well over a decade.
I'm looking forward to 5 years - heck, 14 years - without politics dominating the headlines. I need a rest from it!
Sir Keir (probably) I believe in you...
|
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Jul 4, 2024 20:50:20 GMT
*** quick alert ***
The results thread is up...
|
|
mercian
Member
Posts: 7,724
Member is Online
|
Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 20:52:15 GMT
Last post on the themuslimvote.co.uk
By my reckoning they are recommending
31 Independents
20 Greens
20 Workers Party (Galloway)
2 LibDem
2 Unspecified
I think Starmer has headed them off, but it will be interesting to see if it makes any discernible difference. I'm a bit surprised at the high number of Green recommendations. That might help them over the line in one or two places.
|
|
|
|
Post by eor on Jul 4, 2024 20:53:51 GMT
Just for comfort's sake... I remember someone saying exit polls haven't been more than x% out for decades. Can anyone remember what it was? Pretty sure 1992 was the last big miss. From memory 2015 wasn't terrible in terms of how many seats they were off by, but the gap bridged the difference between the Tories needing allies and the Tories having a majority so it felt like a bigger deal. But as others have said, there are more reasons for caution this year anyway. |
|
mercian
Member
Posts: 7,724
Member is Online
|
Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 20:55:59 GMT
John Spellar for God's Sake. The nonentity's nonentity and my current (just) MP! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 20:56:15 GMT
Just for comfort's sake... I remember someone saying exit polls haven't been more than x% out for decades. Can anyone remember what it was? Pretty sure 1992 was the last big miss. From memory 2015 wasn't terrible in terms of how many seats they were off by, but the gap bridged the difference between the Tories needing allies and the Tories having a majority so it felt like a bigger deal. But as others have said, there are more reasons for caution this year anyway. Even '92 wasn't hugely out. Said hung parliament most likely I think. It certainly didn't misplace a 20% lead! |
|
|
|
Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 21:02:10 GMT
Exit poll
Lab 410
Con 130
LD 61
Reform 13
SNP 10
Green 2
Others 23
|
|
|
|
Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 21:03:48 GMT
Majority of 170
Dont like the Reform figure - hope it is wrong
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 21:11:15 GMT
61 superb performance, which Pratt was suggesting 8 just three months ago.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 21:52:39 GMT
I'm looking forward to 5 years - heck, 14 years - without politics dominating the headlines. I need a rest from it! Harriet Harman on Ch4 announced retirement age for peers at 80...as the first step. After so much ming vaseing, Labour has to do something dramatic, quickly. The civil service customarily enters into talks with the opposition about what they are going to want to do. I can imagine they have been very very busy. One of the pundits . Rory Stuart I think, observed that the next election will have to be on a radical platform, because lab will not be able to get away with tory light again. |
|
|
|
Post by pete on Jul 4, 2024 22:46:51 GMT
All of them for God's Sake! |
|
|
|
Post by guymonde on Jul 4, 2024 23:33:08 GMT
Re Lords and ladies... Is Minette Batters a relation, Batters? Will you become the Lord consort? We really must be told.
|
|
