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Post by baggy07 on Jul 4, 2024 15:02:45 GMT
I have not posted for a year, but enjoyed lurking.
I have just voted Green, first time in a General election not voting Labour. In Wakefield Labour will win easily, very few posters or canvassers seen in the area.
Interested in Number Crunch poll prediction of 7% for the Greens more than treble the 2% they received in 2019.Is this increase of potential Green votes due to more younger voters new on to the voting poll being concerned with environmental matters or in excess of 1.3 million votes leaving Labour from the Left of the party due to policies and feeling unwanted due to purges etc ?
Overall not unhappy that the Tories will be out, but I hope to be able to vote for Labour again in 2029 if they deserve it.
A question I would like to ask anyone if interested, are there any tangible improvements you need the Labour Government to perform to continue your voting of them, or are you mostly tribal and you will vote Labour in 2029, come what may
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,376
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 15:07:16 GMT
But gosh wouldn't it be a shocker if the polls were so badly wrong tonight? If the tories are wiped out I'll try and cope with the shock đ |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 15:17:04 GMT
The U.S. are celebrating their last independence day before they become an absolute monarchy.  |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jul 4, 2024 15:19:07 GMT
Anent vans outside polling stations ...
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Post by jimjam on Jul 4, 2024 15:22:30 GMT
Baggy - welcome back, I'm tribal - have to admit.
However, I do want some tangible things in the next 4+ years, no lists promise.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŠ
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 15:22:42 GMT
Thanks c-a-r-f-r-e-w , so caught up with election thing I forgot it was on! no probs! PrĂȘts pour le sprint? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŠ
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 15:26:41 GMT
Baggy - welcome back, I'm tribal - have to admit. However, I do want some tangible things in the next 4+ years, no lists promise. was hoping for a list⊠|
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Post by bendo on Jul 4, 2024 15:40:35 GMT
Regretting switching to postal votes. My polling station is in the local (decent) pub. Could have done with a nice pint, alas we switched to postal when the wifes passport expired and she doesn't have a driving licence.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŠ
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 15:41:22 GMT
In the aftermath of Daveywatch - Labourâs power-dressing make-over, before and after⊠|
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jul 4, 2024 15:42:06 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŠ
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 15:46:11 GMT
âEmmanuel Macron has been asked to avoid the campaign trail in France because he is so unpopular.
Since calling the snap parliamentary election on June 9, the French president has been largely absent from the airwaves or public rallies.
His own centrist Together coalition has removed his face from campaigning literature in light of his poor approval ratings. Members of the alliance have referred to the moves as operation âde-Macronisationâ.
Bruno Millienne, an outgoing MP for Yvelines, said in a French TV interview: âYes, I told the ĂlysĂ©e, he is hated on the ground. And weâre paying dearly for this detestation and itâs unfair.â
Mr Millienne is one of 224 candidates who have pulled out from Sundayâs run-off. Most of the withdrawals are tactical manoeuvres on the Left and Centre, aimed at avoiding three-way races and blocking Marine Le Penâs National Rally (RN).
âThe âde-Macronisationâ of France is underway. I regret it, but thatâs the way it is,â he added on Instagram.
Alarmed by the amount of negative reactions to Mr Macronâs face on election leaflets, senior party members had asked the president, behind closed doors, to step back from the spotlight in the act of self-preservation. One unnamed minister told Le Parisien that the reaction among voters upon seeing the presidentâs face on campaign literature during the European elections, was âOh, no, not him.ââ
âŠ
A poll from June 17 via Public SĂ©nat, the television channel of the French Senate, confirms the publicâs growing distaste for the president â with only 27 per cent of respondents agreeing with the statement that Mr Macron is a good president. Some 72 per cent said they considered his actions unsatisfactory.
âŠ.
âThree words come up repeatedly for 95 per cent of respondents about the dissolution: âIncomprehensibleâ, âthoughtlessâ, âirresponsible,â FrĂ©dĂ©ric Dabi, head boss of Ifop, told the JDD.
Early projections suggest that tactical efforts to unite the Left and Centre against the RN may pay off and keep them from winning the 289 seats needed for a majority.
After adjusting for the number of candidate withdrawals, a Harris poll published on Wednesday projects that the RN will secure between 190-220 seats. The Left bloc New Popular Front is projected to score 159-183 seats, while the presidentâs Together coalition between 110-135 seats.
Telegraph
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 15:56:20 GMT
Don't forget that he eventually admitted to being a Conservative Party member. Highly unlikely he would vote Labour. Yes that makes it less likely. (Stanley Johnson is a member and said heâs voting Lib Dem thoâ) Yes I saw that. If it was Labour he would be expelled automatically. I don't know if the Conservatives have the same sort of rule. |
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Post by jimjam on Jul 4, 2024 16:01:39 GMT
Righto, off out to GTVO
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
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Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 16:11:56 GMT
But gosh wouldn't it be a shocker if the polls were so badly wrong tonight? Please don't, just thinking about it makes me feel queazy. My heart will be racing at 10.01 that's for sure. I won't believe it till I see it. |
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Post by guymonde on Jul 4, 2024 16:18:46 GMT
Been out this morning etc in a 'safe' conservative seat in the home counties. Why - because we were told to go there rather than wasting time in London constituency which is now safe.
Knocked on a lot of doors in a fairly prosperous area (middle class mainly but certainly not posh.
Findings:
- Mixed voters some staying with their recent views - no landslide
- A lot of Labour posters and even garden stakes. In London I have seen 1 window poster for Lab and not a single garden stake
- Several people I talked to - 4 I think which sounds not much but out of many 30 or 40 I talked with is quite significant - one said undecided (they need to read the manifesto đ€Łđ€Ł - but the other 3 said they were leaning Labour from undecided.
- One was greenish but will vote Lab tactically, because he believes in Ed Miliband. 2 were still thinking but "leaning to Starmer". Note, Starmer was not a candidate there.
I found it heartening and will be awaiting the result with great interest.
NB the Lab leaflet says (based on what?) says Con 40, Lab 39, LD about 12. Spin, or honest assessment?
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 16:22:08 GMT
Unfortunately have grand parent child care duties from 7.30 am tomorrow and for the whole weekend. so won't be as engrossed in the coverage as otherwise. Will probably watch the exit poll and then knock it on the head for a few hours. What, your grandchild?!? Reminds me of my favourite bit of Monty Python and the Holy Grail. "One day son, all this will be yours!" "What, the curtains?" |
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 16:29:07 GMT
What are people's plans for election night I'll be going to bed shortly after the exit poll - I may stay awake until the first couple of results have given the exit poll team a chance to tweak their prediction - as I will be getting up at 5.15am. I can't summon any enthusiasm for a Lab landslide and I've had a stressful couple of days. I shall survey the new electoral landscape over a strong mug of black coffee and toast with peanut butter. |
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 16:37:41 GMT
Survation have tweaked their final MRP with a final final MRP adding in some telephone calls from yesterday evening. I think the changes are related to the additional responses: Final probabilistic seat count: Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1) www.survation.com/final-survation-mrp-projection-of-the-2024-general-election/ |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŠ
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 16:39:16 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 16:41:04 GMT
Please don't, just thinking about it makes me feel queazy. My heart will be racing at 10.01 that's for sure. I won't believe it till I see it. I have today mentally fixated myself on the idea that the polls are overstating Labour (they generally do) and that there will be a late move toward the Conservatives from "don't knows" and Reform. Not enough to prevent a Labour government, but no landslide and reminding myself that would still be a damn good result after 2019. I'm hoping that means when the exit poll appears I will either nod sagely at my wise caution or be pleasantly surprised that it is better, perhaps a lot better, and I can avoid any feelings of disappointment caused by possibly over-exaggerated MRPs. But I can't believe the polls are so far wrong as to prevent the Conservatives being consigned to opposition. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 16:42:42 GMT
Been out this morning etc in a 'safe' conservative seat in the home counties. Why - because we were told to go there rather than wasting time in London constituency which is now safe. Knocked on a lot of doors in a fairly prosperous area (middle class mainly but certainly not posh. Findings: - Mixed voters some staying with their recent views - no landslide - A lot of Labour posters and even garden stakes. In London I have seen 1 window poster for Lab and not a single garden stake - Several people I talked to - 4 I think which sounds not much but out of many 30 or 40 I talked with is quite significant - one said undecided (they need to read the manifesto đ€Łđ€Ł - but the other 3 said they were leaning Labour from undecided. - One was greenish but will vote Lab tactically, because he believes in Ed Miliband. 2 were still thinking but "leaning to Starmer". Note, Starmer was not a candidate there. I found it heartening and will be awaiting the result with great interest. NB the Lab leaflet says (based on what?) says Con 40, Lab 39, LD about 12. Spin, or honest assessment?Which seat was it? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 16:47:37 GMT
Yes let's all hope for an impoverished socialist Utopia where only party members are allowed to buy anything deemed to be luxurious such as bread. I take it you prefer an impoverished Tory Utopia then, where everyone (not just Party members) has to use food banks. That's the Tories for you. Much more egalitarian. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŠ
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 16:50:22 GMT
Survation have tweaked their final MRP with a final final MRP adding in some telephone calls from yesterday evening. I think the changes are related to the additional responses: Final probabilistic seat count: Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2)Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1) www.survation.com/final-survation-mrp-projection-of-the-2024-general-election/Reform on fifteen now? Theyâre not going to tweak it again are they? đ° |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 16:58:25 GMT
Survation have tweaked their final MRP with a final final MRP adding in some telephone calls from yesterday evening. I think the changes are related to the additional responses: Final probabilistic seat count: Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2)Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1) www.survation.com/final-survation-mrp-projection-of-the-2024-general-election/Reform on fifteen now? Theyâre not going to tweak it again are they? đ° On the accompanying map it doesn't show 15 but 5, three of which are hyper-marginal. Only Farage and Tice are forecast to have sizable margins. There is a lot there that I am not convinced about. |
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Post by mark61 on Jul 4, 2024 16:58:48 GMT
Any idea where these 15 Reform seats are? I can see Farage and Anderson winning and maybe Skegness, but the other 12?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŠ
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 16:59:44 GMT
Reform on fifteen now? Theyâre not going to tweak it again are they? đ° On the accompanying map it doesn't show 15 but 5, three of which are hyper-marginal. Only Farage and Tice are forecast to have sizable margins. There is a lot there that I am not convinced about. Phew⊠đ€đ€đ€ |
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Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 17:01:35 GMT
What are people's plans for election night? My plan is to wait up for tge exit poll, then try to sleep, setting my alarm for 2am Then watch the coverage, probably Channel 4, until around 5am (flexible on this time). Most of the constituencies that count through the night should be in by then Then try and get a few hours sleep , later watching the coverage as the day counters come in That almost exactly mirrors my plans. I won't be posting much tonight. I've been out walking all day and want a lazy evening in the hope of having a doze before 10pm. But I'll be with you all in spirit and will be reading everything you write. I have butterflies in my stomach and am still fearing that all the polls are wrong. I might even be brought to tears if the Exit Poll lives up to expectations. Here's hoping it's a night to rival 1997! |
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 17:04:54 GMT
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 17:05:34 GMT
What are people's plans for election night? My plan is to wait up for tge exit poll, then try to sleep, setting my alarm for 2am Then watch the coverage, probably Channel 4, until around 5am (flexible on this time). Most of the constituencies that count through the night should be in by then Then try and get a few hours sleep , later watching the coverage as the day counters come in That almost exactly mirrors my plans. I won't be posting much tonight. I've been out walking all day and want a lazy evening in the hope of having a doze before 10pm. But I'll be with you all in spirit and will be reading everything you write. I have butterflies in my stomach and am still fearing that all the polls are wrong. I might even be brought to tears if the Exit Poll lives up to expectations. Here's hoping it's a night to rival 1997! Or 1992!  |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 17:06:05 GMT
Paul She's waiting. âș  |
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