pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 17:09:44 GMT
Any idea where these 15 Reform seats are? I can see Farage and Anderson winning and maybe Skegness, but the other 12? The 5 on the map are Clacton (13.7 over Lab), Boston and Skegness (7.2 over Con), Ashfield (0.9 over Lab), Gainsborough (0.4 over Con) and Great Yarmouth (0.8 over Lab) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 17:11:35 GMT
A violent policewoman in the making. |
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 17:21:49 GMT
Survation have tweaked their final MRP with a final final MRP adding in some telephone calls from yesterday evening. I think the changes are related to the additional responses: Final probabilistic seat count: Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2)Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1) www.survation.com/final-survation-mrp-projection-of-the-2024-general-election/Reform on fifteen now? They’re not going to tweak it again are they? 😰 Surely this is going to prove if MRP is a load of old cobblers or the future of polling? I know which one my money is on. |
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Post by guymonde on Jul 4, 2024 17:26:35 GMT
Been out this morning etc in a 'safe' conservative seat in the home counties. Why - because we were told to go there rather than wasting time in London constituency which is now safe. Knocked on a lot of doors in a fairly prosperous area (middle class mainly but certainly not posh. Findings: - Mixed voters some staying with their recent views - no landslide - A lot of Labour posters and even garden stakes. In London I have seen 1 window poster for Lab and not a single garden stake - Several people I talked to - 4 I think which sounds not much but out of many 30 or 40 I talked with is quite significant - one said undecided (they need to read the manifesto 🤣🤣 - but the other 3 said they were leaning Labour from undecided. - One was greenish but will vote Lab tactically, because he believes in Ed Miliband. 2 were still thinking but "leaning to Starmer". Note, Starmer was not a candidate there. I found it heartening and will be awaiting the result with great interest. NB the Lab leaflet says (based on what?) says Con 40, Lab 39, LD about 12. Spin, or honest assessment?Which seat was it? Hemel Hempstead. Supposed to be a secret 🙄 |
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Post by alhenry47 on Jul 4, 2024 17:28:01 GMT
Merry Pollmass everyone,
And a happy new changed Labour Party ?
Albert.
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Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 17:28:55 GMT
I have not posted for a year, but enjoyed lurking. I have just voted Green, first time in a General election not voting Labour. In Wakefield Labour will win easily, very few posters or canvassers seen in the area. Interested in Number Crunch poll prediction of 7% for the Greens more than treble the 2% they received in 2019.Is this increase of potential Green votes due to more younger voters new on to the voting poll being concerned with environmental matters or in excess of 1.3 million votes leaving Labour from the Left of the party due to policies and feeling unwanted due to purges etc ? Overall not unhappy that the Tories will be out, but I hope to be able to vote for Labour again in 2029 if they deserve it. A question I would like to ask anyone if interested, are there any tangible improvements you need the Labour Government to perform to continue your voting of them, or are you mostly tribal and you will vote Labour in 2029, come what may Baggy07, My wife and I voted LD this afternoon although I normally vote Lab. The rationalle is that we live in a safe Lab seat which has been made even more safe by bringing part of Wallsend into the Newcastle East constituency. In addition the LD candidate used to work for the same company as me and therefore I know him, although we were aquaintances rather than friends. Con will be totally wiped out as they almost were in 2019. I have voted LD on som previous ocassions and have previously been a member of both parties based on whoever was more LoC at the time. A further reason for voting LD is that I want LDs to do as well as possible in the hope that if LDs and Greens do well, then it will bring about PR sooner rather than later. |
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Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 17:34:54 GMT
Not sure if the predictions thread is still taking new customers so here goes:
Lab 426
Con 104
LD 70
SNP 26
PC 3
Reform 2
Ind 1 (Speaker)
NI 18
This is so hard to amend via edit. I meant Green 3, I'll take 1 off Lab and 2 off Con.
So
Lab 425
Con 102
LD 70
SNP 26
Green 3
PC 3
Reform 2
Ind 1
NI 18
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 17:35:31 GMT
baggy07 - fairly tribal here, but willing to go green, in England at least. Unimpressed by Labour on devolution matters and when in Scotland will likely switch to SNP, but stayed red this time. Want to see action on climate change, would love to see movement on clean air, esp is relation to covid, but doubt it
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 17:38:37 GMT
Spread betting is trending upwards for Lib Dem seats (64 now) at the expense of the Tories. Tories betting on insider information? |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 17:39:12 GMT
Economist Prediction - doesn't look unreasonable to me
Our final best estimates (vs 1 week ago):
Lab 427 (-2)
Con 112 (-5)
LDem 50 (+8)
SNP 20 (-3)
Ref 3 (+1)
PC 3 (=)
Grn 1 (=)
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 17:44:03 GMT
I suppose Ed's daring escapades made me feel better about it at least - although I was sad he didn't follow up Tuesday's bungeeing with a parachute jump yesterday. It’s just the beginning. Future escapades to include: climbing the North face of the Eiger, trekking to the South Pole, crossing the Gobi desert unsupported, Leafleting in Braintree (unsupported, and without protective gloves)… Attachments:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 17:48:37 GMT
GTTO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Just over three hours to wait for confirmation.  |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 17:55:47 GMT
Reform on fifteen now? They’re not going to tweak it again are they? 😰 Surely this is going to prove if MRP is a load of old cobblers or the future of polling? I know which one my money is on. The thing with modelling is: models don’t necessarily get discarded when wrong. Instead, failure is considered an opportunity to improve the model. It’s important to fail sometimes: if you absolutely prove the model, it’s not much of a career: Job done and you have to move on. Whereas if the model doesn’t work properly and keeps on needing tweaking, you can get decades of fruitful work out of it. 👍 (The same applies to my posts) |
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 17:59:19 GMT
I have today mentally fixated myself on the idea that the polls are overstating Labour (they generally do) and that there will be a late move toward the Conservatives from "don't knows" and Reform. Not enough to prevent a Labour government, but no landslide and reminding myself that would still be a damn good result after 2019. I'm hoping that means when the exit poll appears I will either nod sagely at my wise caution or be pleasantly surprised that it is better, perhaps a lot better, and I can avoid any feelings of disappointment caused by possibly over-exaggerated MRPs. But I can't believe the polls are so far wrong as to prevent the Conservatives being consigned to opposition. Imagine being in my position and hoping for 4 seats for the Greens but still aware there is a fair chance it could be zero- all you have to worry about is the size of the Labour majority! And it gets worse because I strongly suspect the exit poll will not be accurate for the 4 Green targets- how can it be if they aren't polling there (which I think would be the case, although possibly Brighton they will have had a history)? I think the exit poll also works on the grounds of probability so a miss for Labour in one area ends up balanced by a gain in another? |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 18:00:08 GMT
Hemel Hempstead. Supposed to be a secret 🙄 Don't worry I won't tell anyone . I would say that was perfectly reasonable - in fact if the polls are right Labour should be comfortably ahead. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 18:01:11 GMT
Reform on fifteen now? They’re not going to tweak it again are they? 😰 Surely this is going to prove if MRP is a load of old cobblers or the future of polling? I know which one my money is on. At the very least, they can't all be right. They could all be wrong of course. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 18:04:01 GMT
Interesting to hear both on here and from acquaintances that those in safe Labour seats are quite likely to vote Green/LD in 'protest' at Starmer's Labour (because they're going to win anyway), while those in marginals - whether Lab/Con or LD/Con - are overwhelmingly voting for the ABT candidate.
Hatred of the Tories seems to be the main takeaway from this election, rather than love of Labour. Or possibly it's simply that I hang around with certain type of people...
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 18:07:07 GMT
I have today mentally fixated myself on the idea that the polls are overstating Labour (they generally do) and that there will be a late move toward the Conservatives from "don't knows" and Reform. Not enough to prevent a Labour government, but no landslide and reminding myself that would still be a damn good result after 2019. I'm hoping that means when the exit poll appears I will either nod sagely at my wise caution or be pleasantly surprised that it is better, perhaps a lot better, and I can avoid any feelings of disappointment caused by possibly over-exaggerated MRPs. But I can't believe the polls are so far wrong as to prevent the Conservatives being consigned to opposition. Imagine being in my position and hoping for 4 seats for the Greens but still aware there is a fair chance it could be zero- all you have to worry about is the size of the Labour majority! And it gets worse because I strongly suspect the exit poll will not be accurate for the 4 Green targets- how can it be if they aren't polling there (which I think would be the case, although possibly Brighton they will have had a history)? I think the exit poll also works on the grounds of probability so a miss for Labour in one area ends up balanced by a gain in another? According to the Survation MRP the Greens miss Bristol Central by miles (about 20%), yet win Worcestershire West, which is not a target. Voodoo stuff. |
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Post by pete on Jul 4, 2024 18:10:57 GMT
JamesE? Hope he's not ill.
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Post by norbold on Jul 4, 2024 18:13:39 GMT
Oh well, back from my "puts it all into perspective" afternoon. My son, Tom, died almost five years ago. Today would have been his 39th birthday, so my other son and I went over to his grave in Wrabness, where he had a tree burial in the same place as my wife, Linda, who died nearly seven years ago.
Today's election in Clacton brought back to mind a story he told me once of having a drink with his mates in the pub just before the 2015 General Election. This was, of course, the period when Carswell was in the ascendant locally and most of Tom's friends were UKIPpers in the true tradition of the Clacton white van man. Having been brought up correctly (!), Tom was very far from being "one of them" and, because it was just before the election, there was much political discussion taking place with Tom being practically the only dissenting voice.
Towards the end of the evening they decided they would go off and get something to eat. The most common suggestions were a kebab or an Indian. Tom said, "No, you've all convinced me. We don't want anything foreign, it's got to be fish and chips." In spite of this conciliatory gesture, they all settled on a kebab.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 18:15:15 GMT
But gosh wouldn't it be a shocker if the polls were so badly wrong tonight? Just shut the fuck up. As I understand it, the idea of MRP is you classify voters by some social groups, young farmers, crusty pensioners, use your polling to see how CP and YF typically vote all over the country, and then count up how many of each group are in a particualr constituency and make a prediction therefore what the result will be. The problem though is if YF and CP do not behave the same in different constituencies. An example how this could all go horribly wrong is if many voters are motivated by eg hatred of the party currently in government. Polling might suggest that 2/3 of the young farmers and half the crusty pensioners on average move to the main opposition party. But in specific constituencies depending whether the government already holds that seat, it could be all the farmers switch away along with 3/4 of the pensioners, but in seats already held by the opposition none of them switch to that opposition. But instead they go for some third or fourth or fifth party which perhaps really holds more appeal for the sort of people who had been inclined to the governing one in its past glory days when it was more popular. Nor might the farmers or crusties show any loyalty to who they are switching to, but rather simply pick the dead donkey party should it happen to have come second last time out. Basically, the process isnt reliable if you cannot stratify people by social demographic, if its more about tactical voting depending on the political situation of each seat. Curtis said the reason the polls show such variation depends on the extent to which they assume a greater swing away from the governing party where it already holds a seat. Its something of a fudge factor how you allow for this in the model.
Id expect the pollsters have tried to be small c conservative in their assumptions, but then the risk would be more extreme switches of voters than they are predicting. There has to be a possibility that voters have been wildly under estimated in how tactical they will be. Both lab and lib vote shares falling doesnt necessarily mean they will do worse in the final MP count. It may just mean voters have drifted off to the also ran parties which they quite like despite them having no chance, once they are convinced con will lose anyway. It might suggest libs will do rather better than is being predicted, where thay have been second, because voters surge to them in those specific seats. The expectation Labour will win well could encourage defector conservatives to switch to libs, even where they are a close third. And indeed, to reform meaning they get a few more than expected.
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Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 18:21:54 GMT
Didn't around to posing on the predictions page but for what it is worth, here is my best guess or perhaps it should be best hope - particularly the Con/LD data.
Lab 469
Con 75
LDem 77
SNP 20
Ref 2
PC 3
Grn 3
Speaker 1
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 18:27:23 GMT
Didn't around to posing on the predictions page but for what it is worth, here is my best guess or perhaps it should be best hope - particularly the Con/LD data. Lab 469 Con 75 LDem 77 SNP 20 Ref 2 PC 3 Grn 3 Speaker 1 I think you have forgotten Northern Ireland - that adds up to 650. GB is 632. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 18:28:09 GMT
norboldSo sorry about your son. Paul
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 18:34:47 GMT
Independent reporting "huge", "massive" turnout which would be good for Labour I think but they're a bit short on any solid facts.
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Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 18:35:06 GMT
Didn't around to posing on the predictions page but for what it is worth, here is my best guess or perhaps it should be best hope - particularly the Con/LD data. Lab 469 Con 75 LDem 77 SNP 20 Ref 2 PC 3 Grn 3 Speaker 1 I think you have forgotten Northern Ireland - that adds up to 650. GB is 632. Thanks, thought the figures looked a bit high. Copied the parties from a previous post and didn't notice the absence of NI. Corrected figures:- Lab 450 Con 76 LDem 77 SNP 20 Ref 2 PC 3 Grn 3 NI 18 Speaker 1 |
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Nered
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Post by Nered on Jul 4, 2024 18:38:26 GMT
".. are you mostly tribal"
"I have voted LD on some previous occasions and have previously been a member of both parties based on whoever was more LoC at the time."
Tribal Labour in my case. I don't vote for individual policies, I vote for what I believe to be the driving philosophy of the party. Social change by state intervention. Strong links with trade unions and cooperative groups,etc. Whereas, for example, I believe the Lib Dems are sceptical about increasing the power of the state.
Just a personal view but I've been a member for 50 years so I'm not likely to change now 😉😁
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 18:38:59 GMT
Independent reporting "huge", "massive" turnout which would be good for Labour I think but they're a bit short on any solid facts. over at the Telegraph, They are saying “ The Conservatives have claimed that they may outperform the polls in today’s general election because of unexpectedly high voter turnout.” The Telegraph also cite the AEA: “ The Association of Electoral Administrators (AEA) has said it expects turnout to be similar to 2019, when 67.3 per cent of the electorate voted.” 🤯🤯🤯 |
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Danny
Member
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 18:42:07 GMT
A question I would like to ask anyone if interested, are there any tangible improvements you need the Labour Government to perform to continue your voting of them, or are you mostly tribal and you will vote Labour in 2029, come what may I am tactical, not tribal, which usually means my voting labour. Its a mistake though for polling companies to assume that means I am loyal to labour because I am not. Lab will be beter than con have been. Aside from that I have no alternative with a viable chance at this election. I doubt that will have changed in 5 years time. Im quite keen on rejoining the EU asap. No one is currently offering that. I have said before that if con were now to offer that in 5 years time, it might be a big vote winner for them. Traditional conservatives are quite pragmatic enought to do that, but who knows what will be left of the party in 24 hours. |
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Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 18:42:48 GMT
Imagine being in my position and hoping for 4 seats for the Greens but still aware there is a fair chance it could be zero- all you have to worry about is the size of the Labour majority! And it gets worse because I strongly suspect the exit poll will not be accurate for the 4 Green targets- how can it be if they aren't polling there (which I think would be the case, although possibly Brighton they will have had a history)? I think the exit poll also works on the grounds of probability so a miss for Labour in one area ends up balanced by a gain in another? According to the Survation MRP the Greens miss Bristol Central by miles (about 20%), yet win Worcestershire West, which is not a target. Voodoo stuff. I'm sure they will have someone at Bristol Central. The YouGov MRP has the Greens winning 51% of the vote there, which even given the uncertainty surrounding MRP projections must be close to a sure thing. Survation's methods in the past have been good though so who knows? |
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