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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 18:49:38 GMT
peterbell“ Didn't around to posing on the predictions page “ That’s a shame Peter - a photo of you would have been great.
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 18:51:22 GMT
Independent reporting "huge", "massive" turnout which would be good for Labour I think but they're a bit short on any solid facts. Those comments are often made on Election Day but then fail to be justified by the eventual turnout. It is also a bit of a myth that high turnouts favour Labour. The 1992 election saw a high turnout which was probably explained by quite a few disaffected Tories - who had intended to sit on their hands - deciding to come out at the last moment to Vote Tory again. I have always tended to blame the Sheffield Rally for that! Cold that be happening again? We simply don't know - though the polls are far more decisive in Labour's favour than back in 1992. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 4, 2024 18:51:53 GMT
I'm back home in the neutral territory of the Vale of Evesham now, the aroma of Redditch cordite still lingering in the nostrils, but fading gradually. The Villages and my old hometown left to their fate, my last great contribution to their political future now completed.
Having attended the funeral of my 101 year old godmother in the morning, a full blown and long Requiem Mass, and a grander wake than I expected afterwards, I ventured forth on a door-knocking get-out-the-vote exercise in the afternoon. Lodge Park and Greenlands, large housing estates that serve as memorials to Harold Macmillan's council house building exercise in the late 1950s. Most homes now privately owned. Tis the way of the world nowadays.
This isn't a long Campaign Tail, for I'm almost spent as a UKPR poster now, and soon to be gone, but I can relay where I think this thing is going.
The abiding voter sentiment is a determination to get rid of the incumbents. If there's a theme to what's driving people to the polling stations it is this and, due you our polar political system, Labour will be the primary beneficiaries. The wave will be surfed by them all the way into power, I think. Maybe with a relatively modest vote share too. This is indeed a punishment election, subordinating all other voting determinants.
I met more ex-Labour defectors to Reform than I would have liked, but they were outnumbered by those heading there from Tory shores. Lots of abstainers too, suggesting a lowish turnout.
The mood in the Labour camp in Redditch is cautiously confident and optimistic, but I detected too an eerie nervousness.
We have an evermore quixotic electorate that is making reading the electoral runes hellishly difficult these days.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 18:56:12 GMT
Independent reporting "huge", "massive" turnout which would be good for Labour I think but they're a bit short on any solid facts. Interesting. I'd be very surprised because Con-Lab switchers are fairly limited and a good chunk of the 'swing' is Con voters not voting, therefore the turnout should decrease (like it does every time Labour win an election, and the opposite of what happened in 2017).
We will see!
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 18:59:10 GMT
shevii - "Independent reporting "huge", "massive" turnout which would be good for Labour I think but they're a bit short on any solid facts." Have grown wary of reports of big turnout being good for Lab. Doesn't seem to fit the pattern of actual results. Same in the US, where >turnout was always equated to a good night for the Dems, but recently the correlation seems to have broken down.
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 19:14:54 GMT
According to the Survation MRP the Greens miss Bristol Central by miles (about 20%), yet win Worcestershire West, which is not a target. Voodoo stuff. I'm sure they will have someone at Bristol Central. The YouGov MRP has the Greens winning 51% of the vote there, which even given the uncertainty surrounding MRP projections must be close to a sure thing. Survation's methods in the past have been good though so who knows? They only do 130 polling stations across the country and if I remember rightly they go back to the same ones each election so they can generate a reliable swing. Whether they add some on at one election as the battlegrounds and demographics change and only use it at the following election I'm not sure. |
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 19:25:44 GMT
shevii - "Independent reporting "huge", "massive" turnout which would be good for Labour I think but they're a bit short on any solid facts." Have grown wary of reports of big turnout being good for Lab. Doesn't seem to fit the pattern of actual results. Same in the US, where >turnout was always equated to a good night for the Dems, but recently the correlation seems to have broken down. Of the last 10 GE's, the 5 highest turnouts resulted in 4 Con and 1 Lab win. The 5 smallest led to 2 Con, 1 coalition and 2 Lab. So it actually looks that in recent times a high turnout tends to favour Con a bit. |
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Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 19:26:24 GMT
With the likely defeat of Jeremy Corbyn tonight by a virtually unknown Labour candidate, I started to wonder whether any current MP (or candidate) could win a seat in a General Election as an Independent.
Farage is the only one that springs to mind (and only at the 6th or 7th attempt).
Any others I may have missed?
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 19:28:22 GMT
I'm sure they will have someone at Bristol Central. The YouGov MRP has the Greens winning 51% of the vote there, which even given the uncertainty surrounding MRP projections must be close to a sure thing. Survation's methods in the past have been good though so who knows? They only do 130 polling stations across the country and if I remember rightly they go back to the same ones each election so they can generate a reliable swing. Whether they add some on at one election as the battlegrounds and demographics change and only use it at the following election I'm not sure. Yes that thought occurred to me too. Unless they have some in Reform-y or Green-y places for instance the exit poll could be a bit less accurate than in recent GEs. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 4, 2024 19:29:07 GMT
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 19:29:25 GMT
With the likely defeat of Jeremy Corbyn tonight by a virtually unknown Labour candidate, I started to wonder whether any current MP (or candidate) could win a seat in a General Election as an Independent. Farage is the only one that springs to mind (and only at the 6th or 7th attempt). Any others I may have missed? Boris? |
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 19:31:10 GMT
He might have been in the pub so long that he forgot what it was called. |
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Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 19:33:15 GMT
With the likely defeat of Jeremy Corbyn tonight by a virtually unknown Labour candidate, I started to wonder whether any current MP (or candidate) could win a seat in a General Election as an Independent. Farage is the only one that springs to mind (and only at the 6th or 7th attempt). Any others I may have missed? Boris? A good shout. Although, I suspect his star is now very much on the wane. |
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Post by alberto on Jul 4, 2024 19:37:59 GMT
Interesting to hear both on here and from acquaintances that those in safe Labour seats are quite likely to vote Green/LD in 'protest' at Starmer's Labour (because they're going to win anyway), while those in marginals - whether Lab/Con or LD/Con - are overwhelmingly voting for the ABT candidate. Hatred of the Tories seems to be the main takeaway from this election, rather than love of Labour. Or possibly it's simply that I hang around with certain type of people...The YouGov polling on why people are voting Labour from yesterday makes this pretty clear. They aren’t firing up the base but also not scaring the horses. We’ll find out soon enough how well this has worked. |
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 19:38:58 GMT
A good shout. Although, I suspect his star is now very much on the wane. Just realised he doesn't qualify anyway because he's not an MP or candidate which was what you asked. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 19:41:38 GMT
With the likely defeat of Jeremy Corbyn tonight by a virtually unknown Labour candidate, I started to wonder whether any current MP (or candidate) could win a seat in a General Election as an Independent. Farage is the only one that springs to mind (and only at the 6th or 7th attempt). Any others I may have missed? Good question! The guy in Kidderminster used to, didn't he, and Martin Bell... although neither were previously party MPs so do they count like Corbyn and the many before who have tried?
I can't think of anyone who would win as an independent with a full party slate against them now. |
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Post by James E on Jul 4, 2024 19:41:45 GMT
JamesE? Hope he's not ill. I am fine but not able to post much at the moment. Election was not ideally timed for me. My initial prediction of a Labour majority around 200 still looks possible although with a lower vote share than I was thinking a month ago. And thanks for your concern - I am very well. |
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Post by lefthanging on Jul 4, 2024 19:48:54 GMT
Agree a high turnout doesn't always help labour, but on this occassion (if reports are true) I think it would. My sense is that there is huge enthusiasm for booting the Tories out across all demographics. I have encountered so many people who are normally apolitical or right wing and are coming out violently against the Conservatives for the first time. Remember the recent polling which said something like half of voters think the Tories have performed so badly that they basically deserve to be annihilated and lose all their seats.
I can easily imagine that converting into a high ABC turnout on the day - and the recent reports of a slight tightening in the polls, and the worry that disaffected Tory voters might be on the cusp of returning to the fold to prevent a 'supermajority', would just boost the ABC vote further.
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Post by chrisc on Jul 4, 2024 19:51:25 GMT
With the likely defeat of Jeremy Corbyn tonight by a virtually unknown Labour candidate, I started to wonder whether any current MP (or candidate) could win a seat in a General Election as an Independent. Farage is the only one that springs to mind (and only at the 6th or 7th attempt). Any others I may have missed? Dick Taverne? Who I am happily surprised is still alive at 95. Kicked out of Labour and won after forming a new party (of one I think) |
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 20:02:04 GMT
Dick Taverne would be better running for US President.
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 20:06:02 GMT
I hate to suggest it mercian, but Galloway? Rather like Farage, it's less a party and more a one man vanity project really. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 4, 2024 20:09:33 GMT
JamesE? Hope he's not ill. I am fine but not able to post much at the moment. Election was not ideally timed for me. My initial prediction of a Labour majority around 200 still looks possible although with a lower vote share than I was thinking a month ago. And thanks for your concern - I am very well. Good to hear James. Along with the much missed Dr Mibbles, you have been my favourite resident UKPR psephologists over the years! Top man. I thought maybe that your recent short absence might have been because you had been co-opted by Sir John Curtice to work on tonight's BBC exit poll. Which, I believe, is due in about 55 minutes. Nerves are jangling!! (A fellow in the Redditch Labour Campaign team told me that Curtice probably knew the result by about 2.00pm. today and has been in purdah for about eight hours now.) |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 20:11:39 GMT
Just for comfort's sake... I remember someone saying exit polls haven't been more than x% out for decades. Can anyone remember what it was?
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 20:15:42 GMT
I hate to suggest it mercian , but Galloway? Rather like Farage, it's less a party and more a one man vanity project really. Agreed, though his party are putting up over 150 candidates. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 20:19:52 GMT
NOW IS THE WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT MADE GLORIOUS SUMMER…. ☀️ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 20:21:42 GMT
Independent reporting "huge", "massive" turnout which would be good for Labour I think but they're a bit short on any solid facts. Not my experience in Braintree - it is almost eerily quiet. I expect turnout to be very low. However, one oddity - more than usual numbers of younger people voting. It is the older cohort that have gone missing. Tory abstainers perhaps? |
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Post by alberto on Jul 4, 2024 20:22:56 GMT
NOW IS THE WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT MADE GLORIOUS SUMMER…. ☀️ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! By this son of a toolmaker? 😉 |
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Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 20:23:06 GMT
Just for comfort's sake... I remember someone saying exit polls haven't been more than x% out for decades. Can anyone remember what it was? As crossbat11 said it's a nerve-racking time isn't it. Stressful business this democracy malarkey! I'm not touching a drop until 10.02. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 20:24:45 GMT
Just for comfort's sake... I remember someone saying exit polls haven't been more than x% out for decades. Can anyone remember what it was? I think tactical voting and the rise of Reform is going to make this harder to predict than normal. I wouldn't be surprised if even the exit poll will prove somewhat inaccurate over the course of the night - although still better than a VI poll, because you are asking people what they have actually done rather than what they might theoretically do. |
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 20:26:49 GMT
Independent reporting "huge", "massive" turnout which would be good for Labour I think but they're a bit short on any solid facts. Not my experience in Braintree - it is almost eerily quiet. I expect turnout to be very low. However, one oddity - more than usual numbers of younger people voting. It is the older cohort that have gone missing. Tory abstainers perhaps? A lot of old folks voting here in Smethwick. It's rock-solid Labour but my little bit is often Tory in locals. |
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