steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on May 28, 2024 16:27:57 GMT
Was it Donald Trump?
Bigly!
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on May 28, 2024 16:28:05 GMT
Redfield Wilton undecided voters, this isn't good news for the tories. They needed them to lean overwhelmingly towards the tories Undecided Voters Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May) 20% Conservative 19% Labour 9% Lib Dem 9% Reform 5% Green 12% Others 27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting This is the interesting question that Danny raised as one that pollsters often don't ask but should. The responses rather support Anthony Wells point about how voting behaviour in this election may buck past patterns and defy assumptions. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 16:28:27 GMT
From the G:
Significant! Starmer is asked restoring free movement. KS indicates that he wants intracompany transfers eased in new deal - and that is not FMOP. He cites cross-border movement of engineers to undergo specific jobs on projects eg Airbus wings moving in supply chain.
4:50 PM · May 28, 2024
|
|
patrickbrian
Member
These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
Posts: 316
|
Post by patrickbrian on May 28, 2024 16:28:37 GMT
Ah, polls at last!
Rishi's summer holiday looks safe.
|
|
|
|
Post by jen on May 28, 2024 16:29:48 GMT
Jen If you're going to tell someone to fuck off maybe go to the minor effort of finding whose the fuckee in question. The person is of no consequence, so why should I bother? If they read my posts, which they obviously do, they will know who is addressed. It's not as if I comment here in order to make friends is it? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 16:31:29 GMT
Jen If you're going to tell someone to fuck off maybe go to the minor effort of finding whose the fuckee in question. The person is of no consequence, so why should I bother? If they read my posts, which they obviously do, they will know who is addressed. It's not as if I comment here in order to make friends is it? I thought we’d become chums jen? From memory you’ve never told me to fuck off. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on May 28, 2024 16:31:39 GMT
Lovely deploy the c word
That'll show them!
|
|
|
|
Post by jen on May 28, 2024 16:33:08 GMT
Jen If you're going to tell someone to fuck off maybe go to the minor effort of finding who’s the fuckee in question. It’s a sort of blank cheque insult I guess. Anyway, probably mercian . Actually it wasn't. He might complain about me calling out racism and xenophobia, but, to my knowledge, he has never complained about my punctuation. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 28, 2024 16:35:13 GMT
Redfield Wilton undecided voters, this isn't good news for the tories. They needed them to lean overwhelmingly towards the tories Undecided Voters Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May) 20% Conservative 19% Labour 9% Lib Dem 9% Reform 5% Green 12% Others 27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting This the interesting question that Danny raised as one that pollsters often don't ask and should. The responses rather support Anthony Wells point about how voting behaviour in this election may buck past patterns and defy assumptions. Although I'm betting against that, it is certainly a possibility and would make for a jaw-dropping election night which would be fascinating to watch. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced it would make for great government thereafter, but that's FPTP for you. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on May 28, 2024 16:36:44 GMT
jenThere's of course no requirement to make friends but there's plenty of people here who agree with some of your contributions , there's no no need to gratuitously piss people off if some ones annoyed you sufficiently to comment then maybe it's worth identifying who they are as you cared sufficiently to respond.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on May 28, 2024 16:38:48 GMT
"He might complain about me calling out racism and xenophobia, but, to my knowledge, he has never complained about my punctuation."
I think you fail to understand the importance of correct punctuation and spelling Like what,I, do!
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
|
Post by neilj on May 28, 2024 16:40:16 GMT
Reports from the tory press that a JLP Poll to be released later tonight is more favourable to them
They do have a strange methodology, it predicts where undecided voters and turnout will end up. The factors they look at include previous voting intention in the constituency, age, sex etc
They already tend to give a lower Labour vote
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,370
|
Post by Danny on May 28, 2024 16:40:17 GMT
Survation NEW: First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period. 23 point Labour lead, highest since November 2022. LAB 47 (-1) CON 24 (-3) LD 11 (+3) GRN 3 (+1) RFM 8 (-) SNP 3 (-) OTH 4 (-) F/w 24th - 27th May. Changes vs. 22nd May 2024 Poll to poll changes like this are essentially meaningless by themselves. That said, a recovery by libs at the expense of con could be very interesting if it got going now, because presumably it would imply tactical anti con voting and potential for libs to get towards the upper end of predictions, the 50-100 range. Lab falling but con falling even faster is something of a trend in recent times. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on May 28, 2024 16:43:09 GMT
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,370
|
Post by Danny on May 28, 2024 16:43:50 GMT
By this measure, the 7 polls we have had since the election announcement show an overall increased lead of 2.5% on average - that is, when compared to the various pollsters' pre-election averages from the start of the year. I'm singin' in the rain, just singin' in the rain. What a glorious feeling, I'm happy again. I'm laughin' at clouds, so dark up above. The sun's in my heart and I'm ready for love. Let the stormy clouds chase everyone from the place. Come on with the rain, I've a smile on my face. I walk down the lane with a happy refrain. I'm singin', just singin' in the rain.' Maybe not so happy as he pretends though. |
|
patrickbrian
Member
These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
Posts: 316
|
Post by patrickbrian on May 28, 2024 16:48:12 GMT
Jen I liked your post. I thought a certain amount of insult was unremarkable here. Don't know everyone is in a tiz about it  |
|
|
|
Post by alec on May 28, 2024 16:48:22 GMT
"Fuckee".
Language evolves every day.
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on May 28, 2024 16:50:03 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 47% (-1) CON: 24% (-3) LDM: 11% (+3) RFM: 8% (=) GRN: 3% (+1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @survation , 24-27 May. Changes w/ 21-22 May. Yummy And this was before Ed repeatedly threw himself in a lake. I wonder if this might be a straw in the wind suggesting an in-campaign uptick for the Lib Dems? They tend to benefit from additional exposure and I think we might start to see them float up to 14-15% VI in the polls at the expense of Tory, Labour and Greens. Disillusioned Tory voters, feeling obliged to vote as a civic duty, often see the Lib Dems as a safe house if they feel that they just can't cast a vote for the Tories. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 16:51:41 GMT
WTF are comments like this based on and do they really expect them to be considered seriously???
“ As Ben Riley-Smith reports, Sunak told the Telegraph’s new podcast:
[Johnson is] a busy guy as well, but we were in touch literally just the other day, actually, about the risk that Starmer poses to the country’s security and the damage he would do. I worry about Keir Starmer’s complacency around security.”
Just seems risible to me.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 16:54:16 GMT
Batty
“I wonder if this might be a straw in the wind suggesting an in-campaign uptick for the Lib Dems?
They tend to benefit from additional exposure and I think we might start to see them float up to 14-15% VI in the polls at the expense of Tory, Labour and Greens”
Ed was doing some floating on Windermere early on. Then a bit of sinking, climbing back on, falling off again and repeat.
|
|
|
|
Post by moby on May 28, 2024 16:56:02 GMT
The person is of no consequence, so why should I bother? If they read my posts, which they obviously do, they will know who is addressed. It's not as if I comment here in order to make friends is it? I thought we’d become chums jen ? From memory you’ve never told me to fuck off. 🤣🤣🤣 |
|
|
|
Post by James E on May 28, 2024 16:56:53 GMT
Having warned about the volatility of R&W's regional cross-breaks, I have had a look at their latest poll, and thought I'd post the figures, anyway. Overall, they conform to the pattern I have posted about ad nauseam for the past year or two, but in a highly exaggerated form. In the last R&W, the Tories' strongest 'region' was Wales; in this one, it is London. Best to treat these as entertainment rather than any kind of guide to the election. GB Lab 46% (+13) Con 23% (-22) Con to Lab swing 17.5% London (sample 1,694) Lab 45% (-3) Con 26% (-6) LD 11% (-4) Con to Lab swing 1.5% SE England (sample 1,501) Lab 40% (+17) Con 26% (-29) LD 13% (-5) Con to Lab swing 23% SW England (sample 1767) Lab 40% (+17) Con 23% (-30) LD 20% (+2) Con to Lab swing 23.5% East England (sample 776) Lab 46% (+21) Con 22% (-35) Con to Lab swing 28% West Midlands (sample 1,004) Lab 51% (+17) Con 22% (-31) Con to Lab swing 24% East Midlands (sample 559) Lab 44% (+12) Con 24% (-31) Con to Lab swing 17.5% NE England (sample 275) Lab 53% (+10) Con 24% (-14) Con to Lab swing 12% NW England (sample 1,196) Lab 58% (+12) Con 17% (-21) Con to Lab swing 16.5% Yorks & H (sample 907) Lab 51% (+13) Con 21% (-22) Con to Lab swing 17.5% Scotland (sample 679) Lab 35% (+16) Con 22% (-3) SNP 28% (-17) SNP to Lab swing 16.5% Wales (sample 394) Lab 45% (+4) Con 25% (-11) Con to Lab swing 7.5% |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
|
Post by neilj on May 28, 2024 17:01:21 GMT
JLP as predicted
NEW: *Labour lead at 12 points*
JLP/
@restispolitics
🇬🇧 election poll, 24th-25th May 2024, change on early May
Labour: 40% (-1)
Conservatives: 28% (+2)
Reform UK: 12% (-1)
Lib Dems: 10% (-1)
Green: 5% (-)
|
|
|
|
Post by Old Southendian on May 28, 2024 17:04:12 GMT
Reports from the tory press that a JLP Poll to be released later tonight is more favourable to them They do have a strange methodology, it predicts where undecided voters and turnout will end up. The factors they look at include previous voting intention in the constituency, age, sex etc They already tend to give a lower Labour vote If 'more favourable to them' means Labour down to 39%, then I'll live with that. Outliers will be outliers. I remember a Tory commentator gleefully trumpeting the first poll in six months where Labour fell below 40%. Didn't happen again for another six months. (ish)
EDIT: Even better, Labour still at 40. Should have read before posting.
|
|
|
|
Post by jen on May 28, 2024 17:05:46 GMT
The person is of no consequence, so why should I bother? If they read my posts, which they obviously do, they will know who is addressed. It's not as if I comment here in order to make friends is it? I thought we’d become chums jen ? From memory you’ve never told me to fuck off. Strangely enough, there are some posters here, who are not racist, nor misogynistic, nor homophobe or transphobe, and I might have disagreements with them, but I would be unlikely to tell them to "fuck off". Disagreement is good and healthy if we wish to strive and achieve a true democracy. I visited and valued this site for a while, and found no need to comment, for I had nothing to add. But my dad, who was an old school conservative, and was regular army, and not a conscript, and saw his first action at Normandy 6th June 1944, where, as he told me, he was "shit scared", he told me, never give a Nazi an inch... So when somebody posts racist, misogynist, homophobe, transphobe or other Nazi shit, I will call it out. It is my duty. I couldn't give a fuck whether they are polite or not. That's what you all told me, remember, when I first called it? I should refrain because he is "so polite". well fuck that. We might, in some ways, be on the same side. But we ain't ever, ever, gonna be friends. I mean... you play acoustic, I play electric haha! |
|
|
|
Post by jen on May 28, 2024 17:08:25 GMT
jen There's of course no requirement to make friends but there's plenty of people here who agree with some of your contributions , there's no no need to gratuitously piss people off if some ones annoyed you sufficiently to comment then maybe it's worth identifying who they are as you cared sufficiently to respond. Ah, I see our problem... you mistake me for someone who gives a fuck... |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
|
Post by neilj on May 28, 2024 17:13:59 GMT
JLP as predicted NEW: *Labour lead at 12 points* JLP/ @restispolitics 🇬🇧 election poll, 24th-25th May 2024, change on early May Labour: 40% (-1) Conservatives: 28% (+2) Reform UK: 12% (-1) Lib Dems: 10% (-1) Green: 5% (-) Without the adjustment the results of this poll would be Lab 43% Con 26% Reform 10% LD 10% Green 6% |
|
|
|
Post by graham on May 28, 2024 17:14:39 GMT
Survation NEW: First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period. 23 point Labour lead, highest since November 2022. LAB 47 (-1) CON 24 (-3) LD 11 (+3) GRN 3 (+1) RFM 8 (-) SNP 3 (-) OTH 4 (-) F/w 24th - 27th May. Changes vs. 22nd May 2024 Survation polls on a UK basis. The GB equivalent here would be Lab 48 Con 25. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on May 28, 2024 17:16:30 GMT
"Ah, I see our problem... you mistake me for someone who gives a fuck..."
Nah!😁
|
|
|
|
Post by moby on May 28, 2024 17:19:42 GMT
Abbotts not being allowed to stand.
|
|
