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Post by jen on May 28, 2024 17:31:29 GMT
Abbotts not being allowed to stand. Who cares? (apart from some bloke who believes in some fictitious thing in the sky that likes to make innocent children suffer...) |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on May 28, 2024 17:31:55 GMT
JLP as predicted NEW: *Labour lead at 12 points* JLP/ @restispolitics 🇬🇧 election poll, 24th-25th May 2024, change on early May Labour: 40% (-1) Conservatives: 28% (+2) Reform UK: 12% (-1) Lib Dems: 10% (-1) Green: 5% (-) So the "more favourable" poll, put into Electoral Calculus with no tactical voting, produces a Labour majority of 166!  |
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Post by graham on May 28, 2024 17:34:59 GMT
Abbotts not being allowed to stand. If confirmed, I hope she stands as an Independent. As such she would retain the freedom to attack Starmer throughout the campaign. |
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 17:36:18 GMT
Abbotts not being allowed to stand. If confirmed, I hope she stands as an Independent. As such she would retain the freedom to attack Starmer throughout the campaign. That would be great. Hope she leaves the Tories out of it though. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 28, 2024 17:36:27 GMT
Who cares? (apart from some bloke who believes in some fictitious thing in the sky that likes to make innocent children suffer...)
Is it a dragon?
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Post by jib on May 28, 2024 17:36:37 GMT
Hardly need any cartoons with this joker about!
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 17:37:31 GMT
By the way,…. you do realise that if she does that then Starmer will increase Labour’s vote even further?
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Post by jen on May 28, 2024 17:40:01 GMT
Abbotts not being allowed to stand. If confirmed, I hope she stands as an Independent. As such she would retain the freedom to attack Starmer throughout the campaign. hahaha! Like clockwork! But she, allegedy, had sex outside of marriage. So surely she's going to hell? (asking for a friend) |
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 17:42:53 GMT
FORECAST UK (by email)
“ UK Forecast
Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2019
Labour 43.8% (+11.8%) 444 - 446 +244 to +246
Conservatives 24.5% (-19.2%) 135 - 138 -236 to -233
Reform 11.6% (+9.6%) 0 nc
Liberal Democrats 9.2% (-2.4%) 25 - 29 +16 to +20
Green 5.6% (+2.9%) 0 - 1 -1 to nc
SNP 2.8% (-1.1%) 17 - 20 -31 to -28
Plaid Cymru 0.6% (+0.1%) 2 - 4 nc to +2
Speaker 1 nc
Northern Ireland 18 nc “
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Post by graham on May 28, 2024 17:49:14 GMT
By the way,…. you do realise that if she does that then Starmer will increase Labour’s vote even further? I rather doubt that. Many fancy her chances as an Independent. She could accuse Starmwe of condoning racism from certain elements of the NEC. |
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Post by graham on May 28, 2024 17:55:19 GMT
Starmer deserves to suffer damage from this. I really hope it happens.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 28, 2024 17:55:30 GMT
A couple of snippets emerge in relation to the tories conscription or slavery plan for 18 year olds.
If 18 year olds opted for the weekend slavery option but already had a job that required them to work at the weekend they'd be required not to go to their paid employment but be available for their slave labour instead.
That should get them voting Tory in their nones!
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Post by mark61 on May 28, 2024 17:56:26 GMT
Jen If you're going to tell someone to fuck off maybe go to the minor effort of finding whose the fuckee in question. The person is of no consequence, so why should I bother? If they read my posts, which they obviously do, they will know who is addressed. It's not as if I comment here in order to make friends is it? With the way you post there's fuck all danger of that! |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on May 28, 2024 17:56:47 GMT
Having warned about the volatility of R&W's regional cross-breaks, I have had a look at their latest poll, and thought I'd post the figures, anyway. Overall, they conform to the pattern I have posted about ad nauseam for the past year or two, but in a highly exaggerated form. In the last R&W, the Tories' strongest 'region' was Wales; in this one, it is London. Best to treat these as entertainment rather than any kind of guide to the election. East England (sample 776) Lab 46% (+21) Con 22% (-35) Con to Lab swing 28% Well that regional cross break is certainly entertaining me. Applying those changes to 2019 in my part of the world: Braintree Lab 39.7% Con 35.3% Witham Lab 38.8% Con 31.6% Not going to happen, but one can wish. Removing Cleverly and Patel would indeed be entertaining. |
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Post by davem on May 28, 2024 17:57:41 GMT
JLP as predicted NEW: *Labour lead at 12 points* JLP/ @restispolitics 🇬🇧 election poll, 24th-25th May 2024, change on early May Labour: 40% (-1) Conservatives: 28% (+2) Reform UK: 12% (-1) Lib Dems: 10% (-1) Green: 5% (-) Without the adjustment the results of this poll would be Lab 43% Con 26% Reform 10% LD 10% Green 6% What are the adjustments? |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 28, 2024 17:59:11 GMT
FORECAST UK (by email) “ UK Forecast Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2019 Labour 43.8% (+11.8%) 444 - 446 +244 to +246 Conservatives 24.5% (-19.2%) 135 - 138 -236 to -233 Reform 11.6% (+9.6%) 0 nc Liberal Democrats 9.2% (-2.4%) 25 - 29 +16 to +20 Green 5.6% (+2.9%) 0 - 1 -1 to nc SNP 2.8% (-1.1%) 17 - 20 -31 to -28 Plaid Cymru 0.6% (+0.1%) 2 - 4 nc to +2 Speaker 1 nc Northern Ireland 18 nc “ Numbers don't really matter that much; it's an overwhelming victory for Labour whichever pollster you believe. Getting back to being the third party at Westminster though is really worth something (two questions every week at PMQs is good for a Party leader's visibility). |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on May 28, 2024 18:00:33 GMT
By the way,…. you do realise that if she does that then Starmer will increase Labour’s vote even further? I rather doubt that. Many fancy her chances as an Independent. She could accuse Starmwe of condoning racism from certain elements of the NEC. Have you considered offering to write her scripts for her? I've heard Starmer may be guilty of no end of made-up crimes. |
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Post by jen on May 28, 2024 18:12:47 GMT
The person is of no consequence, so why should I bother? If they read my posts, which they obviously do, they will know who is addressed. It's not as if I comment here in order to make friends is it? With the way you post there's fuck all danger of that! thankfully. |
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Post by graham on May 28, 2024 18:12:48 GMT
I rather doubt that. Many fancy her chances as an Independent. She could accuse Starmwe of condoning racism from certain elements of the NEC. Have you considered offering to write her scripts for her? I've heard Starmer may be guilty of no end of made-up crimes. I somehow don't think she would be short of helpers . If there are racist elements on the NEC and Starmer does nothing about them, he becomes complicit.
There are suggestions that Luke Akehurst may be imposed in her seat as the candidate. Very pro-Israel and unlikely to be well received there. Nominations close on June 7th. It will be interesting to see whether Campaign Group members express support after that date.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 18:13:39 GMT
I rather doubt that. Many fancy her chances as an Independent. She could accuse Starmwe of condoning racism from certain elements of the NEC. Have you considered offering to write her scripts for her? I've heard Starmer may be guilty of no end of made-up crimes. I’m just hoping that enough damage is caused for us to get a Tory/Reform coalition government with Suella Braverman and Lee Anderson in charge. That’d show Starmer. |
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Post by laszlo4new on May 28, 2024 18:18:55 GMT
Without the adjustment the results of this poll would be Lab 43% Con 26% Reform 10% LD 10% Green 6% What are the adjustments? Undecided, unsure voters. |
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Post by graham on May 28, 2024 18:19:33 GMT
Have you considered offering to write her scripts for her? I've heard Starmer may be guilty of no end of made-up crimes. I’m just hoping that enough damage is caused for us to get a Tory/Reform coalition government with Suella Braverman and Lee Anderson in charge. That’d show Starmer. A Hung Parliament might be good - giving the Campaign Group a fair bit of leverage. |
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Post by jib on May 28, 2024 18:37:33 GMT
There isn't much else to say on this, only that the Tory Party is stuffed with these public school educated duplicitous morons. Their Leader a prime example.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 18:44:42 GMT
Penny Mordaunt possibly but intake your point, they are a very, very strange group now. Bizarre to think that Braverman might be their next leader. I sort of hope she is as I don’t want the saga to end until the Lib Dem’s are the main opposition and Steve is shadow minister of the fuzz.
I think the forthcoming Tory leadership contest might actually be a fight between these two neighbouring members, Mordaunt and Braverman.
Braverman should hold Fareham & Waterlooville, although Mordaunt's is less clear cut. It's true that Portsmouth North has been a shithole bellweather seat since 1966, but I think this is about to come to an end. Mordaunt achieved the highest Tory vote ever there in 2019 (61.4%) and they've never done worse than their 2001 effort (36.7%). I just can't see Labour managing it - they've been dire there since 2010 and even a 10% jump in 2017 only got them to 33.7%, over half of which slipped away again in 2019.
I reckon Mordaunt, whose prominence has increased remarkably in the last couple of years, will manage 40-45% and Labour will be 5 points behind. Unlike Braverman, I don't believe she's hugely disliked at all and her constituents will want a party leader as their MP.
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Post by peterbell on May 28, 2024 18:45:47 GMT
Sophie Ridge on Sky now saying that Abbott has been given back the Lab whip contrary to the Times info. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 28, 2024 18:48:07 GMT
Sophie Ridge on Sky now saying that Abbott has been given back the Lab whip contrary to the Times info. Oh gawd, please say it ain't so. Do I have to find another club to beat that bastard Starmer with now??? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 28, 2024 18:48:39 GMT
Getting back to being the third party at Westminster though is really worth something (two questions every week at PMQs is good for a Party leader's visibility). I'd think con are still hoping to get back as the second largest party? |
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 18:48:59 GMT
Sophie Ridge on Sky now saying that Abbott has been given back the Lab whip contrary to the Times info. Disappointing for ole Graham. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 28, 2024 18:49:26 GMT
grahamHate to break it to you mate but in the event of a hung parliament you won't find many campaign group members in the liberal democrats. I think you might be a tad confused about what a hung parliament entails.
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Post by peterbell on May 28, 2024 18:52:49 GMT
If Sky are correct then it means all the nasty comments and swearing this afternoon and early evening have been a waste of time. To be honest it has done this board no good at all. We should all be better than this.
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