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Post by leftieliberal on May 27, 2024 15:50:30 GMT
Looks like the SNP now have less in common… . The SNP could lose votes at the general election if it goes too hard on pushing for a second Scottish independence referendum, polling experts have warned.They said the SNP must “stem the flow” of pro-Scottish independence voters switching to Labour, as Sir Keir Starmer’s party appears to be winning over “soft” nationalists who see change of government at Westminster as their top priority.“Ramping up” the push towards a second referendum on separation could turn off even sympathetic nationalists from the SNP when voters go to the ballot box on 4 July, warned polling expert Mark Diffley....Mr Maciver(1), co-founder of the Message Matters PR consultancy, said it was proving very difficult for the SNP to encourage strong pro-independence voters to get out and vote while reaching out to those tired of the constitutional question at the moment....James Mitchell, a professor of public policy at Edinburgh University, said the SNP was grappling with a series of mixed messages, including the argument that it was important to kick out the Tories while also saying Labour offered no change from the Tories.“They’re in a mess. It’s a damage limitation exercise,” he said.(1) This is the way his name is spelt in the i newspaper. Some people spell this name with an upper-case and some with a lower-case i. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 15:54:32 GMT
But the bookies are just guessing too. There are no secret magic insights in political betting. If they get it wrong they can be stung badly by someone with better information putting on a big bet which they can't offset even by changing the odds. For example yesterday you could get 11/10 with bet365 on the Lib Dem winning Dorking and Horley, with the Tory at evens. They must have immediately taken bets on the Lib Dem and and therefore lowered the odds to 8/11 and 13/10 respectively, which I think is much more realistic. in the meantime you can still get evens with William Hill, so there's still time to make a few bob. But that is the issue, there is no "information". For other seats there is the national polling and modelling which provides an indication of which way a seat may go - and that is my view of political betting, it simply follows polling - but in the Corbyn case there is no hard data to go on, as it is a one off. All there remains is "gut instinct" that he is a popular local MP and the people know they can vote for him without risking a Tory getting in. I share that view and think he might win, but there is nothing scientific about it. I don't see political betting as containing any useful information. It differs from horse racing (where experts will be aware of the horse's previous performances) or the stock market (where there is a huge wealth of deep data on a company that can inform the share price). For politics there is just polls. As a campaign progresses the parties will start to make noises about how well things are going in place X or place Y, but frankly anyone who trusts party activists to have a good picture doesn't realise how inaccurate such views often are. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 27, 2024 16:05:16 GMT
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Post by shevii on May 27, 2024 16:09:17 GMT
Haven't learned to copy and paste twitter on a mobile but was linking to stats for lefties who has a list of candidates to date:
Lab 594
Green 561
LD 493
Reform 460
Con 398
Workers party 169
Tories really hitting the ground running!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 16:10:53 GMT
I think you mean Bayesian not Boolean. Yes, apologies for the error. My mind went to another analysis that I was doing last week. Yes, Bayesian. I prefer Boozeian - sounds like analysis done by a drunk. |
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Post by peterbell on May 27, 2024 16:16:03 GMT
Lucy Allen MP (Telford) has quit/been suspended from the Tory party after advising voters to support the Reform candidate. She says she resigned while the party says that she has been kicked out.
How many more things are going to go wrong for Sunak before election day?
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on May 27, 2024 16:21:19 GMT
Right now, it seems possible that the Conservative Party is in the process of collapsing in front of our eyes.
Headlines of the Daily Mail for the next six weeks likely to be focussed on the Windsors
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 16:21:47 GMT
Far right brexitanian rat taking the last opportunity to leave the sinking Tory ship and straight into the refuker garbage scow.
"Telford MP Lucy Allan, who will step down at the next election,has called on supporters to back Alan Adams’ refuk campaign."
Alan Adams is an ex submariner , could come in handy when torpedoing refugees in small boats.
Down Periscope
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 16:22:13 GMT
Lucy Allen MP (Telford) has quit/been suspended from the Tory party after advising voters to support the Reform candidate. She says she resigned while the party says that she has been kicked out. Just when it looked like the Tories had managed a whole day without anything new going wrong. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 16:31:55 GMT
More insanity from the crumbling brain of the disgraced former president saying Biden planned to have the FBI assassinate him and his secret service detail during the execution of the search warrant at his Florida mansion.
It is of course weapons grade cobblers.
The FBI agents acted on accepted parameters in the search
As laid out in the justice department’s justice manual. agents are permitted to use deadly force “when necessary, that is, when the officer has a reasonable belief that the subject of such force poses an imminent danger of death or serious physical injury to the officer or to another person”.Exactly the same terms of reference that British armed police officers act on incidentally.
The execution of a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago was communicated ahead of time with Trump’s Secret Service detail.The
Another slight issue with the Orange pathological liars assertion.
He wasn't at Mar-a-Lago when the search took place.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 16:46:52 GMT
Haven't learned to copy and paste twitter on a mobile but was linking to stats for lefties who has a list of candidates to date:
Lab 594
Green 561
LD 493
Reform 460
Con 398
Workers party 169
Tories really hitting the ground running!
Could we see the Tories fail to contest all the seats?
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Post by Rafwan on May 27, 2024 16:53:49 GMT
They don't guess the initial odds, someone makes a judgement based on all the information to hand. If they get it wrong they can be stung badly by someone with better information putting on a big bet which they can't offset even by changing the odds. For example yesterday you could get 11/10 with bet365 on the Lib Dem winning Dorking and Horley, with the Tory at evens. They must have immediately taken bets on the Lib Dem and and therefore lowered the odds to 8/11 and 13/10 respectively, which I think is much more realistic. in the meantime you can still get evens with William Hill, so there's still time to make a few bob. But that is the issue, there is no "information". For other seats there is the national polling and modelling which provides an indication of which way a seat may go - and that is my view of political betting, it simply follows polling - but in the Corbyn case there is no hard data to go on, as it is a one off. All there remains is "gut instinct" that he is a popular local MP and the people know they can vote for him without risking a Tory getting in. I share that view and think he might win, but there is nothing scientific about it. I don't see political betting as containing any useful information. It differs from horse racing (where experts will be aware of the horse's previous performances) or the stock market (where there is a huge wealth of deep data on a company that can inform the share price). For politics there is just polls. As a campaign progresses the parties will start to make noises about how well things are going in place X or place Y, but frankly anyone who trusts party activists to have a good picture doesn't realise how inaccurate such views often are. I am sure you are absolutely right in your final point; activists (and especially candidates) are the last people able to give an accurate view, it is too coloured by their own ambitions and desires. But surely it is possible to make assessment based on previous comparable cases? I am convinced Corbyn will win because of what happened to Livingstone in 2000. It is a very similar situation, where the candidate is very popular with his constituency (through GLC leadership in Livingstone’s case) and seen as unfairly stripped of eligibility by the party leadership. Also, I think he will win because there really is no-one who will be unhappy if he does win (save, perhaps the Labour candidate). |
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Post by moby on May 27, 2024 17:00:31 GMT
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Post by alec on May 27, 2024 17:00:49 GMT
Difficult to know how the Tory fortunes are going to roll in the next month or so. I've long held that they were going to get a hiding this time around, even in the immediate aftermath of 2019, as they set themselves up for a huge fall with their promises that could never be fulfilled. They are doing everything to make the hiding a really hard one, but there is still a stubborn resistance within some demographics to stick with the Conservatives. That's primarily a function of the two party fptp system, and Labour have also benefited from the retention of their residual base even at their own nadir. It's why no one should ever say either of the two parties are facing terminal oblivion; the system always dictates that they will return, one day. I'm aware that some of the more involved pro-Labour posters ( jimjam, for example) believe the margin will be tighter, and they may well be correct. It's very tempting for many of us to run away with the idea of a Conservative collapse. Against that, things really are not going at all well for Sunak, with the caveat that not so many voters noticed the explosive tweet on a Bank Holiday Monday, and events that engage posters here rarely alter the consciousness of the average voter. I never get overly analytical of polls and seat distributions - I'll leave that to others far better qualified than I - and work on sentiment and hunch instead, albeit based on the headline polls. I still think we're looking at a 1997 level of Conservative seat retention here. So far, I think Starmer has done OK in the campaign personally, although the general Labour messaging has been strong. Sunak has been Sunak, and the messaging pretty chaotic. There is a chance at least of a further crumbling of Tory numbers though. Much may depend on how prepared blue voters are to back Reform. The safer Starmer looks, the more they might be tempted, and this probably explains the focus on national service. I would imagine we'll see a string of fairly right wing policies from Sunak now, because this is where the damage limitation battle is being fought. If Starmer continues to reassure, and Sunak continues with the chaos, then Conservatives are in very big trouble. If Sunak stabilises things, he's just back to the default position - big trouble. |
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Post by RAF on May 27, 2024 17:05:56 GMT
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 27, 2024 17:06:28 GMT
Old Nat look away now. Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 35% (+16) SNP: 30% (-15) CON: 17% (-8) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 4% (+4) GRN: 3% (+2) Via @moreincommon_ , 22-25 May. Changes w/ GE2019.
I would have been surprised if the simple announcement of a GE date magically changed the polling numbers.
We'll see if the campaign can claw back some support for the SNP - but it will be hard. The UK state is fighting harder against the existential threat to it, and the SNP are suffering from self-inflicted wounds.
In practical terms, of course, sod all will change in terms of reserved policies, however Scots vote. Starmer will have a huge majority in Westminster, and will be free to do as he pleases.
It's what he is pleased to do (or not do) until the 2026 Scottish GE that matters more for the independence in the EU that I want to see.
Dani Garavelli in her Guardian article describes the potential consequence rather well.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/27/snp-woes-boost-keir-starmer-labour-scotland?CMP=share_btn_url |
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Post by alec on May 27, 2024 17:07:20 GMT
Ukraine: Spain signs a $6.5bn defence support package with Kyiv, France agrees to send training instructors to Ukraine, and NATO is discussing taking over air defence roles for parts of Ukraine, which will provide safe spaces as well as enable Ukraine's own air defences to be concentrated further towards the frontline. In Germany, Chancelor Scholz says Putin is sacrificing 24,000 troops a month throughout the campaign.
Meanwhile, reports that Russia is massing more troops in Belogrod, presumably to continue the attacks in NE Ukraine. If the US wasn't blocking Kyiv from using ranged weapons across the border, these troop concentrations would be a key target.
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Post by jayblanc on May 27, 2024 17:11:33 GMT
Haven't learned to copy and paste twitter on a mobile but was linking to stats for lefties who has a list of candidates to date: Lab 594 Green 561 LD 493 Reform 460 Con 398 Workers party 169 Tories really hitting the ground running! Could we see the Tories fail to contest all the seats? They only have till the end of next week to fill those seats, as the nomination deadline is 4pm Friday 31st 7th. Usually the major parties have PPCs ready for nomination in the seats they intend to contest well in advance of the end of Parliament. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 27, 2024 17:20:19 GMT
When does this rolling debacle get to a stage where one is allowed to feel a bat squeak of sympathy for Sunak and the Tories??
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Post by shevii on May 27, 2024 17:20:42 GMT
Deadline is 7th June I think so still 10 days away.
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Post by peterbell on May 27, 2024 17:25:46 GMT
When does this rolling debacle get to a stage where one is allowed to feel a bat squeak of sympathy for Sunak and the Tories?? 10 pm on July 4th - but it will only be a bat squeak and that is only because I tend to feel sorry for losers |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 17:26:16 GMT
When does this rolling debacle get to a stage where one is allowed to feel a bat squeak of sympathy for Sunak and the Tories?? Don't be ridiculous. Austerity, Brexit, Johnson, Truss. |
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Post by jayblanc on May 27, 2024 17:26:48 GMT
Deadline is 7th June I think so still 10 days away. Whoops, I looked at my calendar wrong. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 27, 2024 17:37:51 GMT
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Post by jayblanc on May 27, 2024 17:46:43 GMT
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Post by jayblanc on May 27, 2024 17:50:23 GMT
I have strong concern over "More in Common" polling, because they are not an opinion polling firm but a political consultancy and pressure group. |
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Post by mercian on May 27, 2024 18:20:45 GMT
I'll be straight on the phone tomorrow to volunteer as a dog. The dogs who do this work are always stunningly, off the charts, cute - are you sure you qualify? essextherapydogs.co.uk/Listen, if he wants to self-identify as a dog it's against his human/canine rights to question it. Doggist!  |
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Post by hireton on May 27, 2024 18:20:55 GMT
Looks like the SNP now have less in common… They have something in common with the Conservatives  Or alternatively, at the high-water mark of British Labour popularity the party could only open up a few points lead over the SNP which has been in government for 14 years. Once the British Labour government disappoints its supporters as it will inevitably do given its timidity, centre right positioning and economic inheritance it will sink back to a strong second place in Scottish politics. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 27, 2024 18:22:47 GMT
Does seem a bit off, given Sunak is probably persuading more people to vote Refuk than she ever could |
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Post by bardin1 on May 27, 2024 18:31:15 GMT
I have strong concern over "More in Common" polling, because they are not an opinion polling firm but a political consultancy and pressure group. Their website is very 'Brit Nat' - can hardly bring themseves to mention the nations within Britain and their map says it all. All about what unites 'British' people. www.britainschoice.uk/ |
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