Danny
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Post by Danny on May 27, 2024 13:45:06 GMT
It has previously been leaked that Levido wanted an autumn election and opposed the July call. Scapegoat for the PM? If I was strategising the conservative campaign and thought a summer election best, I might well leak that I favoured an autumn one. |
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Post by RAF on May 27, 2024 13:46:52 GMT
"Fair dos, it is much worse than I describe. Only 10% of voters have to oppose the MP for them to be thrown out and a new election held" Wrong again first the recall petition has to be triggered by an mp being suspended from parliament for the appropriate time ten days or if criminally convicted and incarcerated , then a recall petition may be triggered and If 10% of constituents vote in it to trigger a by election there's a by election. The seat then becomes vacant pending a by election. The incumbent mp is perfectly entitled unless criminally sanctioned to stand in the by election if they win they stay the mp. There is no way that a recall petition could be held the day after an election. I said... IF MPs were subject to a recall petition the day after being elected....they would all be immediately un-elected again. The recall petition is a farce because its pretty much a cast iron certainty it will boot out the current MP because most voters oppose them and only 10% have to do so to get rid of them. Not quite. That's just for a by-election to take place. The MP can stand in the by-election, where it would take a substantially larger number than 10% of their electorate to unseat them. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 27, 2024 13:49:57 GMT
Dave'In all seriousness, if this is what it’s like after less than a week, what kind of state will they be in, if as Curtice has displayed, the polls still aren't moving much or at all? Think I’ll get myself some popcorn.' The way it's going tories will look back at the start of the campaign, with Sunak being soaked whilst announcing the election, as the Golden Era of the campaign
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on May 27, 2024 13:52:37 GMT
Let’s hope so Neil 👍
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Post by graham on May 27, 2024 13:54:19 GMT
Theo Usherwood 'Fire now turning towards CCHQ’s election chief Isaac Levido from one senior Conservative: “I am beyond words. They shouldn’t have called it. “But having chosen to do so… and had 18 months to prepare, Isaac has no excuse for what he has allowed to happen.” All going swimmingly... Does Levido have some sort of veto over what Sunak wants? Is his a more powerful position than an actual (albeit, weak) PM? Poor Rishi - he’s even more ineffectual than I took him to be. In all seriousness, if this is what it’s like after less than a week, what kind of state will they be in, if as Curtice has displayed, the polls still aren't moving much or at all? Think I’ll get myself some popcorn. I don't believe the detailed organisation of election campaigns is in the hands of the political leadership as such but rather the central national HQ. Staff at Tory Central Office will be working out Sunak's schedule and making decisions as to where he should appear etc. When I was a Labour PPC in the late 1970s I recall correspondence with Harold Wilson in which he explained that he expected to be 'in the hands of Transport House' for the upcoming 1978/79 campaign. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 14:01:09 GMT
Paul
I write as honorary Secretary of the West chiltern hobknobs appreciation society and I wish to register my strongly worded approbation there is not a scintilla of comparison between the ancient British pursuit of hobknobing and the bastard flapjack derivative abortion that is the hobnob.
I would have thought as a man of your exceptional age that you wouldn't be taken in by this obvious deception.
Now if you will excuse me I need to go for a quick hobknob to compose myself.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 27, 2024 14:02:12 GMT
Zac Goldsmith, former tory Minister in the Foreign Office
"I understand the anger towards Sunak who has damaged the Party almost beyond repair and all but guaranteed the majority of his MPs will lose their job next month.
But it’s hard to muster much sympathy given that none of this would have happened without the complicity of a majority of the Party & what is now unfolding was entirely predictable- indeed predicted.
The hope is that when Sunak disappears off to California in a few weeks there are at least some decent MPs left around which to rebuild"
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Post by leftieliberal on May 27, 2024 14:08:26 GMT
What the discussion about school fees seem to be missing is the obvious anomaly of pretending that commercial businesses are charities and giving them a tax break as if they were. This particular lie is simply maintained as a subsidy to the wealthy elite to ensure that their own children retain, through the networking opportunities, small class sizes, lavish facilities and connections into elite universities, a huge advantage over state school children. Anyone really think lightweights such as Cameron, Johnson and Sunak would have become PM without these advantages? The whole thing is a monstrous scam and should have been abolished years ago. As, of course, they were when originally set up. The Wikipedia article on Eton College contains the following information: Eton College was founded by Henry VI as a charity school to provide free education to 70 poor boys who would then go on to King's College, Cambridge, founded by the same king in 1441.I remember that my own Grammar School in Coventry benefitted from a similar approach, originally founded by Queen Isabella in 1344, with several gifts over the following centuries. And it isn't just public schools. Universities are charities too and you could argue that they are just as much commercial businesses these days. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 14:22:41 GMT
Zac Goldsmith, former tory Minister in the Foreign Office "I understand the anger towards Sunak who has damaged the Party almost beyond repair and all but guaranteed the majority of his MPs will lose their job next month. But it’s hard to muster much sympathy given that none of this would have happened without the complicity of a majority of the Party & what is now unfolding was entirely predictable- indeed predicted. The hope is that when Sunak disappears off to California in a few weeks there are at least some decent MPs left around which to rebuild" It’s hugely pleasing to think that the Tory membership thought Liz Truss would be a great Prime Minister and the Tory MPs said, “Fuck off - she was rubbish. What we need is Rishi Sunak.” So given they’re going to be left with a hundred or so MPs and the same membership (minus deaths) I look forward to their next brilliant choice in July/August/whenever. (i wonder if they will try to spread themselves over the opposition benches to give the appearance of numbers or huddle together for comfort. Either way they’re fucked - and it couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch.) |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 27, 2024 14:23:36 GMT
graham Bookies odds are based on the bets placed, they don't have any hidden insights. But the bookies have to start somewhere when they are making their book, and their usual assumption is that the punters will bet on the race in line with the bookies' odds; it is when they do not that the odds move. As Corbyn only declared himself as a candidate a few days ago, there may not have been enough money wagered yet to move the odds, so graham may be right in treating these odds as the bookies' initial view. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 14:25:50 GMT
Paul I write as honorary Secretary of the West chiltern hobknobs appreciation society and I wish to register my strongly worded approbation there is not a scintilla of comparison between the ancient British pursuit of hobknobing and the bastard flapjack derivative abortion that is the hobnob. I would have thought as a man of your exceptional age that you wouldn't be taken in by this obvious deception. Now if you will excuse me I need to go for a quick hobknob to compose myself. Hobnob = biscuit. Hobnobbing = ingratiating oneself with somebody important. Me for example. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 14:26:49 GMT
graham Bookies odds are based on the bets placed, they don't have any hidden insights. But the bookies have to start somewhere when they are making their book, and their usual assumption is that the punters will bet on the race in line with the bookies' odds; it is when they do not that the odds move. As Corbyn only declared himself as a candidate a few days ago, there may not have been enough money wagered yet to move the odds, so graham may be right in treating these odds as the bookies' initial view. Initial guess - at best. |
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patrickbrian
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These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
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Post by patrickbrian on May 27, 2024 14:28:44 GMT
Crofty
In fairness, who would have been any better for Tory PM?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 14:31:16 GMT
I’ve no idea whether Corbyn will win or not. But what I think is clear is that there will be a great deal of obvious and vocal support for him. The question is, what will the silent majority do? They might swell his numbers or they might feel they need to support a Labour candidate.
Maybe there will be some polling but even then I’m not sure how accurate it will be. It will be an interesting result though.
I hope Abbott gets to stand as Labour though I miss her pontificating.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 14:34:06 GMT
Crofty In fairness, who would have been any better for Tory PM? Me? Penny Mordaunt possibly but intake your point, they are a very, very strange group now. Bizarre to think that Braverman might be their next leader. I sort of hope she is as I don’t want the saga to end until the Lib Dem’s are the main opposition and Steve is shadow minister of the fuzz. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 14:36:08 GMT
Apologies for my multiple, boring posts but this is recuperation for you. I’ve just managed a small section of rather excellent carrot cake so things are looking up at last.
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philf
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Post by philf on May 27, 2024 14:40:21 GMT
I have returned to pontificate on the upcoming election. I was here all along, just too pushed busy-wise to post.
It is predictable, but sad, that almost all the parties (bar the greens, obviously) have barely discussed the changing climate. You are left to wonder: at what election will this ever become the most important issue as the problems it creates will always get in the way: wars, famine, flooding.
To be clear, this is an understandable human position to take: we are hopeless at long-term planning. The cost of living crisis rightly has been the order of the day, but there will be within the next 20-30 years (at most) a considerably longer lasting cost of living crisis (where the living takes on a different meaning).
I think the electorate is actually receptive to this topic, but it is a topic that must be carefully and delicately sidestepped (read: ignored) when it comes to mainstream parties. I am not a pessimist by nature, but I think we are, by all accounts, too late to ward off the worst of the climate crisis. It would be nice if this could find its way into the top 3 issues at the 2024 UK GE, but I doubt it.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 27, 2024 14:41:39 GMT
And while we are on the subject of betting, here are Ladbrokes' odds on how many seats the Tories will lose (relative to the 2019 GE result, not to the number of Tory MPs at the dissolution).
201 or more 4/9
151-200 3/1
101-150 7/1
51-100 16/1
1-50 33/1
None 100/1
So they are definitely following the opinion polls.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 14:44:15 GMT
graham Bookies odds are based on the bets placed, they don't have any hidden insights. But the bookies have to start somewhere when they are making their book, and their usual assumption is that the punters will bet on the race in line with the bookies' odds; it is when they do not that the odds move. As Corbyn only declared himself as a candidate a few days ago, there may not have been enough money wagered yet to move the odds, so graham may be right in treating these odds as the bookies' initial view. But the bookies are just guessing too. There are no secret magic insights in political betting. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 14:49:16 GMT
As, of course, they were when originally set up. The Wikipedia article on Eton College contains the following information: Eton College was founded by Henry VI as a charity school to provide free education to 70 poor boys who would then go on to King's College, Cambridge, founded by the same king in 1441.I remember that my own Grammar School in Coventry benefitted from a similar approach, originally founded by Queen Isabella in 1344, with several gifts over the following centuries. And it isn't just public schools. Universities are charities too and you could argue that they are just as much commercial businesses these days. Oddly enough, I am not too bothered what Henry VI intended Eton to do in the 1440s, but what it is now. As far as I know Universities don't charge different fees to attend a particular course, you are either a domestic student or a foreign one and that's it. If there are any that do and are acting as a device to preserve the privileges of the wealthy elite, I would happily remove their charitable status too. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 14:51:49 GMT
Old Nat look away now.
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 35% (+16)
SNP: 30% (-15)
CON: 17% (-8)
LDM: 10% (=)
RFM: 4% (+4)
GRN: 3% (+2)
Via
@moreincommon_
, 22-25 May.
Changes w/ GE2019.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 15:05:07 GMT
Old Nat look away now. Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 35% (+16) SNP: 30% (-15) CON: 17% (-8) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 4% (+4) GRN: 3% (+2) Via @moreincommon_ , 22-25 May. Changes w/ GE2019. Looks like the SNP now have less in common… |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on May 27, 2024 15:15:47 GMT
C’mon Graham - work your magic with the Scottish seat calculations.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 15:19:44 GMT
C’mon Graham - work your magic with the Scottish seat calculations. Corbyn to win. |
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Post by johntel on May 27, 2024 15:25:59 GMT
But the bookies have to start somewhere when they are making their book, and their usual assumption is that the punters will bet on the race in line with the bookies' odds; it is when they do not that the odds move. As Corbyn only declared himself as a candidate a few days ago, there may not have been enough money wagered yet to move the odds, so graham may be right in treating these odds as the bookies' initial view. But the bookies are just guessing too. There are no secret magic insights in political betting. They don't guess the initial odds, someone makes a judgement based on all the information to hand. If they get it wrong they can be stung badly by someone with better information putting on a big bet which they can't offset even by changing the odds. For example yesterday you could get 11/10 with bet365 on the Lib Dem winning Dorking and Horley, with the Tory at evens. They must have immediately taken bets on the Lib Dem and and therefore lowered the odds to 8/11 and 13/10 respectively, which I think is much more realistic. in the meantime you can still get evens with William Hill, so there's still time to make a few bob. |
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Post by laszlo4new on May 27, 2024 15:29:32 GMT
But the bookies have to start somewhere when they are making their book, and their usual assumption is that the punters will bet on the race in line with the bookies' odds; it is when they do not that the odds move. As Corbyn only declared himself as a candidate a few days ago, there may not have been enough money wagered yet to move the odds, so graham may be right in treating these odds as the bookies' initial view. But the bookies are just guessing too. There are no secret magic insights in political betting. In the raw data I mentioned yesterday, I had 500 voters. I started from all parties having the same chance, then run the first test on 50. Then used the Boolean adjustment (in Boolean stat you have a priori assumption, and then you use the outcome to adjust it), so I ran the test 10 times. At the end the chances became highly stable. Just to make it very clear, for a reliable statistics I would have needed 5,000 raw data (place of living, accommodation, job, age, social background, etc.). It is just too expensive, although I expect YouGov to come out with one towards the end of the week. |
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Post by graham on May 27, 2024 15:37:22 GMT
C’mon Graham - work your magic with the Scottish seat calculations. The poll shows a swing of 15.7% from SNP to Labour and implies 28 gains to take Labour to 29. In addition, there are 3/4 seats which would fall to Labour on the basis of very little tactical voting. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 27, 2024 15:41:58 GMT
In the raw data I mentioned yesterday, I had 500 voters. I started from all parties having the same chance, then run the first test on 50. Then used the Boolean adjustment (in Boolean stat you have a priori assumption, and then you use the outcome to adjust it), so I ran the test 10 times. At the end the chances became highly stable. Just to make it very clear, for a reliable statistics I would have needed 5,000 raw data (place of living, accommodation, job, age, social background, etc.). It is just too expensive, although I expect YouGov to come out with one towards the end of the week. I think you mean Bayesian not Boolean. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 15:43:12 GMT
Old Nat look away now. Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 35% (+16) SNP: 30% (-15) CON: 17% (-8) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 4% (+4) GRN: 3% (+2) Via @moreincommon_ , 22-25 May. Changes w/ GE2019. Looks like the SNP now have less in common… They have something in common with the Conservatives  |
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Post by laszlo4new on May 27, 2024 15:50:06 GMT
I think you mean Bayesian not Boolean. Yes, apologies for the error. My mind went to another analysis that I was doing last week. Yes, Bayesian. |
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