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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 11:26:42 GMT
We need some more polls.... Don't we usually get a couple about 5 pm on a Monday? Don't know whether the Bank Holiday might slow things down a bit, though. |
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Post by athena on May 27, 2024 11:38:34 GMT
The natural conclusion that lends itself, therefore, is.... Are they delibarately trying to lose? If the answer is yes, the next question has to be....is there something coming down the line that they know about but we don't - and if so, what? WWIII? I very much doubt they're actually trying to lose, but it does seem probable that the timing is a consequence of various straws in the wind suggesting that, in economic terms, this might be as good as it gets. As for what they're not telling us, the IFS's general election coverage is a useful guide to some of the pachyderms in the room. For example, in a brief piece on Public finances and the 2024 general election they say: The high-level spending plans published alongside the March Budget, which will act as the baseline for the parties’ election promises and be the starting point for the next government, imply cuts to some ‘unprotected’ budgets. Precisely how big those cuts are depends on what happens to the ‘protected’ areas (like health and defence), among other things. The whole point is, there are no published plans beyond this year, meaning that we don’t know. A reasonable estimate is that unprotected budgets face cuts of between 1.9% and 3.5% per year (or between £10 and £20 billion by 2028–29) – see Figure 2. Notably, this is before accounting for recent announced increases in defence spending. The precise figures are less important than the fact that there are cuts on the way with absolutely zero sense from the main parties about where those might fall.
Investment budgets, too, are facing cuts. Government investment is set to fall sharply as a share of national income even with Labour’s promise of an additional £23.7 billion of green investment over the parliament.
It’s not that spending cuts would be impossible to deliver. It’s that they would be impossible to deliver while maintaining the existing contours of the welfare state (even before the planned expansion of childcare subsidies and introduction of a lifetime cap on social care costs), and while maintaining the current range and quality of public services. We could, as a country, decide to charge for services that are currently free, or to means-test things that are currently provided universally, or for the state to stop doing things that it currently does. Yet such discussions seem unlikely to feature in the debate. We wouldn’t allow parties to tell us they will raise taxes without specifying where from, yet we allow them to promise spending cuts without any detail as to where the axe will fall. |
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Post by RAF on May 27, 2024 11:42:41 GMT
Victoria Derbyshire: "What do you want to do if you're not an MP?" Steve Baker, without a moment's hesitation: "Skydiving, motorcycling, fast catamaran racing..." Sounded like he couldn't wait. What a selfless chap, embodying the very essence of public service. Baker has never let present difficulties define his future. If I recall correctly, he once would up a Brexit debate for May's Government, immediately resigned, and voted against the Government on the motion. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 27, 2024 11:49:14 GMT
Tories are in meltdown x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1795057013178716493'Excl: Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed' |
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patrickbrian
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These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
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Post by patrickbrian on May 27, 2024 11:51:13 GMT
Athena
"I very much doubt they're actually trying to lose, but it does seem probable that the timing is a consequence of various straws in the wind suggesting that, in economic terms, this might be as good as it gets."
Probably right, but so far I've not seen anything to undermine my original thesis that Rishi fancies a relaxing demob-happy summer in California!
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Post by jayblanc on May 27, 2024 11:55:24 GMT
Tories are in meltdown x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1795057013178716493'Excl: Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed' These Millennials with their Quiet Quitting are Destroying The Conservative Party! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 27, 2024 11:57:03 GMT
We need some more polls.... Don't we usually get a couple about 5 pm on a Monday? Don't know whether the Bank Holiday might slow things down a bit, though. Redfield Wilton normally comes out at 5pm on a Monday |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 27, 2024 11:58:45 GMT
"I volunteer on a political messageboard, giving the elderly retirees someone to chat to, keep them up to speed with the modern world, post youtube clips for them, listen to their stories about times past etc.. It hasn’t done me any harm (well apart from all the CPTSD, obvs.)" Sounds great where can I sign up? Thank you v. much for your interest, Mr Steve. Here at “ postingbuddies4U” we are always very appreciative of new applicants and look forward to working with you. There’s a bit of a waiting list tbh and you need a lengthy apprenticeship, as you have to be able to do things like handle hazardous waste and undergo extensive diversity and equality training so that you can deal with newly vulnerable groups like Tories with care and sensitivity. I might be setting up a thread for it, but you have a good chance of jumping up the queue as we are a bit light on firearms training. (Esp. for those who didn’t do national service last time around, or pass their empire test on the school shooting range) |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 11:59:16 GMT
I mentioned the libertarian party candidate Chase Oliver earlier
Chase Oliver
According to wiki, he supports removing regulation stopping people from feeding the homeless; opposes 'the over-militarization' of police and 'qualified immunity' policy; opposes clearing public access woodland to develop a police training facility; left Democrats over their pro war attitudes. Supports choice in abortion (if you can afford it); free weapons ownership; believes the market will solve the climate crisis; supports legalisation of cannabis; supports open door immigration.
Favourite quote: "Armed gays are harder to oppress, and they're harder to bash."
I wonder why the fascist xenophobic racist authoritarian trump didn't win☺
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 12:03:10 GMT
" but you have a good chance of jumping up the queue as we are a bit light on firearms training"
I've got my own bicycle clips and a ready supply of tunnocks tea cakes if that would help to grease the wheels ,nudge nudge, say no more!
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 12:04:58 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 27, 2024 12:05:38 GMT
" but you have a good chance of jumping up the queue as we are a bit light on firearms training" I've got my own bicycle clips and a ready supply of tunnocks tea cakes if that would help to grease the wheels ,nudge nudge, say no more! Hobnobs for the win, Mr Steve (or those Abernethy things oldnat was on about) |
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Post by peterbell on May 27, 2024 12:08:01 GMT
Paul, I thought the whole speech was excelllent. How anyone could vote for Sunak rather than Starmer is unbelievable. WE now have a prospective PM who is serious and thinks things through carefully, not a charismatic corrupt fool like Boris or an insignificant little boy who can only play to his extremists like Sunnak or an idiot like Truss. I will check it all through later Peter - thanks. I’m still struggling for concentration as I feel quite exhausted after my Norovirus experience. Paul Paul, sorry to hear that. I thought that you were feeling much better as you seemed to be posting pretty frequently now. |
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Post by peterbell on May 27, 2024 12:17:02 GMT
Whisper it quietly, but Starmer seems to be getting the hang of this politics lark. That was a competent, even confident, performance. He won't go far wrong if he keeps up that level of engagement. How much attention are typical mind-not-yet-made-up voters paying to all this? Will they have heard any of these speeches? I doubt they're as enthusiastic as the UKPR2 readership about a six-week election campaign during which politicians fall over each other to make not-quite-promises and dodge questions.
All that'll count are the 20s clips that make it into the headlines and onto social media. They're all I've ever heard of Sunak and Starmer and I wouldn't pick either of them as a party leader on the basis of them. Starmer sounds nasal, earnest and slightly tentative; Sunak sounds bland and somewhat defensive. I don't think I've ever heard any of the other leaders. Athena, Hopefully you are wrong and more people will listen to what the likes of Starmer have to say. 20s second clips are what have given us the likes of Johnson, Truss and Sunak and the resulting chaos from their lack of competance. |
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Post by Rafwan on May 27, 2024 12:19:25 GMT
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Post by shevii on May 27, 2024 12:21:49 GMT
Like many others I can't really know the situation on the ground in Islington North but there's a fair bit of circumstantial evidence that Corbyn would win.
The vox pops seem to all struggle to find anything other than loyalty to the man, although I think the Guardian picked up a few Labour voters at the weekend. Apparently loads of the shops have pictures up with them and Corbyn and a leftie twitter feed (obvious potential bias) was saying he was getting stopped or wished good luck every 10 yards.
But you also have to consider the attitude of the local Labour Party who have been passing loads of restore the whip motions and whether it will be mostly run out of local hands and just how many canvassers Labour are going to get when they encounter hostility on the doorstep.
How much resources are Labour going to put into this one when they have already made their key point of distancing themselves from Corbyn?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 27, 2024 12:31:11 GMT
Only needs about a 5% swing to lose. Perhaps he told the local party he was willing to continue as the candidate so they didnt have to scrabble about finding someone else to stand, but obviously he wasnt going to cancel his holiday just because his loony leader decided to hold the election then without having warned him in advance. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 12:35:09 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 27, 2024 12:50:07 GMT
About that...I saw con challenge that there would even be a net financial gain form taxing schools, if the consequence was people returning to state education. I dont think this one is a vote winner, Blair avoided it. My daughter did an essay a couple of months ago for her final year accountancy and finance exam on that very subject, reviewing all the papers and evidence. The consensus seemed to be there would be a net tax gain and that the shift over to state education, while it would be threatened by many, would likely happen only in a small proportion of cases (based on previous behaviours with similar tax changes - eg all the rich people will move away from scotland if the higher tax rate is moved up 2p at the top band) . More importantly, the net tx gain would not be significant compared to the funding gap generally. Something like a 25% rise in fees is quite a bit. Compared to would that be a 2% rise on a 48% tax so a 4% rise? What sort of current incomes was she assuming for parents, I'd agree the very rich will not consider this makes much difference, and the spread of fees from the cheapest to most expensive private schools is x2-x3. So then the question is, what proportion of parents are in the very rich category, and what proportion in the just able to afford it? Comparing the income tax rise and the fees rise is a bit chalk and cheese - which of those two is the biggest number depends on your income level. Many people sending their kids to private schools will not be paying top rate income tax. (also remember modern trends in family size, so actually for 'kids' maybe should read 'kid'.) Id also mention that parents are making some very interesting choices, they do not send their kids wholly to private schools but concentrate on sending them in the GCSE examination years. Thats the worst failing of the state system, where it matters most. For A level you can choose which schools to send your kids, at least if you are willing to travel. Again, these people are very particulalry choosing where their money goes furthest already. Be interested if your daughter has a view on these points? Anyone know whether local authorities and health authorities can reclaim VAT? Because they pay fees for a number of kids in private education. What did she consider would be the proportionate gain for the state? (because obviously will not be 100% of the tax) |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 27, 2024 12:58:05 GMT
John Curtice
'The first six polls since RishiSunak called the election on average show:
Con +0
Lab +0
Reform +0
Lib Dem +0
Lab lead over Con = 21 (n/c)
Change is as compared with each company's previous poll before Wednesday.'
5 days out of 42 gone, no sign of movement in the polls
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 27, 2024 12:59:35 GMT
"Fair dos, it is much worse than I describe. Only 10% of voters have to oppose the MP for them to be thrown out and a new election held" Wrong again first the recall petition has to be triggered by an mp being suspended from parliament for the appropriate time ten days or if criminally convicted and incarcerated , then a recall petition may be triggered and If 10% of constituents vote in it to trigger a by election there's a by election. The seat then becomes vacant pending a by election. The incumbent mp is perfectly entitled unless criminally sanctioned to stand in the by election if they win they stay the mp. There is no way that a recall petition could be held the day after an election. I said... IF MPs were subject to a recall petition the day after being elected....they would all be immediately un-elected again. The recall petition is a farce because its pretty much a cast iron certainty it will boot out the current MP because most voters oppose them and only 10% have to do so to get rid of them. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 13:02:38 GMT
John Curtice 'The first six polls since RishiSunak called the election on average show: Con +0 Lab +0 Reform +0 Lib Dem +0 Con lead over Lab = 21 (n/c) Change is as compared with each company's previous poll before Wednesday.' 5 days out of 42 gone, no sign of movement in the polls They wish! |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 13:03:54 GMT
What the discussion about school fees seem to be missing is the obvious anomaly of pretending that commercial businesses are charities and giving them a tax break as if they were. This particular lie is simply maintained as a subsidy to the wealthy elite to ensure that their own children retain, through the networking opportunities, small class sizes, lavish facilities and connections into elite universities, a huge advantage over state school children.
Anyone really think lightweights such as Cameron, Johnson and Sunak would have become PM without these advantages? The whole thing is a monstrous scam and should have been abolished years ago.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 27, 2024 13:15:32 GMT
Theo Usherwood
'Fire now turning towards CCHQ’s election chief Isaac Levido from one senior Conservative:
“I am beyond words. They shouldn’t have called it.
“But having chosen to do so… and had 18 months to prepare, Isaac has no excuse for what he has allowed to happen.”
All going swimmingly...
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 13:19:26 GMT
Theo Usherwood 'Fire now turning towards CCHQ’s election chief Isaac Levido from one senior Conservative: “I am beyond words. They shouldn’t have called it. “But having chosen to do so… and had 18 months to prepare, Isaac has no excuse for what he has allowed to happen.” All going swimmingly... It has previously been leaked that Levido wanted an autumn election and opposed the July call. Scapegoat for the PM? |
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Post by EmCat on May 27, 2024 13:26:09 GMT
Tories are in meltdown x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1795057013178716493'Excl: Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed' One in five of the current Conservative MPs are standing down. Now, some of them will be standing down after a long time as an MP, and will be keen to do some succession planning ("I'm not standing, but Smithers here has my full endorsement"). Others will be looking after themselves, and have no loyalty to Party ("I decided to become an MP because it would look good on my CV") The former group will be wondering what all will be in the manifesto before doing the canvassing. That will also apply to many of those who are standing again. If the manifesto has some vague levelling up promises, then going round that area with the blue collar aspirational residents (who might be persuaded like they were back in Thatcher's time) seems feasible. On the other hand, if the manifesto is full of tax cuts for the wealthy, then they'd rather ensure the votes of the constituents in that other area of home owners working in a professional job. Canvassing in areas where there will be open hostility to your side would be demoralising for the best of people. Doing so where there is a chance the electorate could be persuaded does it least mean they have a fighting chance. And the "only in it for myself" group won't care anyway. |
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Post by johntel on May 27, 2024 13:34:11 GMT
The small number of Conservative MPs who will get in at the GE will have an unprecedented amount of power to choose their next leader. And if they pick 2 candidates who the general membership don't like then the party may well self-combust. Get those hobknobs in for a while summer of fun!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 13:35:45 GMT
The small number of Conservative MPs who will get in at the GE will have an unprecedented amount of power to choose their next leader. And if they pick 2 candidates who the general membership don't like then the party may well self-combust. Get those hobknobs in for a while summer of fun! FFS - it’s hobnobs! |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on May 27, 2024 13:35:46 GMT
Theo Usherwood 'Fire now turning towards CCHQ’s election chief Isaac Levido from one senior Conservative: “I am beyond words. They shouldn’t have called it. “But having chosen to do so… and had 18 months to prepare, Isaac has no excuse for what he has allowed to happen.” All going swimmingly... Does Levido have some sort of veto over what Sunak wants? Is his a more powerful position than an actual (albeit, weak) PM? Poor Rishi - he’s even more ineffectual than I took him to be. In all seriousness, if this is what it’s like after less than a week, what kind of state will they be in, if as Curtice has displayed, the polls still aren't moving much or at all? Think I’ll get myself some popcorn. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 27, 2024 13:43:24 GMT
What the discussion about school fees seem to be missing is the obvious anomaly of pretending that commercial businesses are charities and giving them a tax break as if they were. What the debate seems to be missing is that every child being educated privately is a saving of £5,000-£10,000 to the state, which otherwise would have a duty to educate them. Seems fair they should get a subsidy for each child of an equivalent amount towards educating that child. I think the private sector does state children an enormous favour because the simple existence of a private sector demonstrates, or should demonstrate to every parent whose children are state educated, just how badly they are being let down by state education. Yes. Because most advantage is passed down by simple wealth and nepotism. When I was young private schools were dying. But they have seen a resurgence, because the quality of state schooling has been falling. I guess it was laudable to replace grammar/secondary moderns with comprehensives in order to create equality of education, but what actually happened was net resourcing fell. Everyone's education got worse. All secondary schools in Hastings are now 'needs improvement'. And guess what? people are taking their kids out of them to do examination years in private schools locally. Its a horror story where reformers believe equality should be the enemy of excellence. That its better everyone get a bad education than a few get a good one. Sure the rich kids were lucky, but its better for the nation that at least someone gets a better education. |
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