neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 14, 2024 19:24:34 GMT
Boris Johnson
"If Labour wins big, the Commons will be crammed with Palestinian-flag waving Corbynistas - and it won't just be the rich getting soaked, it'll be everyone. Voting Tory is the ONLY way to stop Starmergeddon"
He makes that sound like a bad thing...
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 14, 2024 19:26:04 GMT
For the squeeze vote it's absolutely vital I think. Not so sure about get out to vote (including the identifying of supporters in the first place) but in a tight contest probably does make a bit of a difference. To some extent the attempt to squeeze can betray a lack of confidence - and can just as well be achieved by a leaflet. I have only once experienced this - in 1983 when living in South Norfolk. Twoo Alliance canvassers arrived at the door - one Liberal the other SDP - and tried to get me to vote tactically on the basis that Labour was not in the race there. I refused to do so - and rather took them aback by pointing out that Christopher Mayhew had won the seat for Labour in 1945! It had also been Labour-held in the 1920s. The Alliance canvassers in 1983 were of course correct and the events of 38 or 60 years earlier irrelevant. . |
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 19:26:20 GMT
Early days. Still almost 3 weeks to go until election day. Indeed. Back on February 1974 the GE was announced on Feb 7th with Polling Day on 28th! That is the equivalent to the election having been announced yesterday. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 14, 2024 19:26:59 GMT
Boris Johnson "If Labour wins big, the Commons will be crammed with Palestinian-flag waving Corbynistas - and it won't just be the rich getting soaked, it'll be everyone. Voting Tory is the ONLY way to stop Starmergeddon" He makes that sound like a bed thing... Well Johnson is keen on bed things  |
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 19:27:43 GMT
To some extent the attempt to squeeze can betray a lack of confidence - and can just as well be achieved by a leaflet. I have only once experienced this - in 1983 when living in South Norfolk. Twoo Alliance canvassers arrived at the door - one Liberal the other SDP - and tried to get me to vote tactically on the basis that Labour was not in the race there. I refused to do so - and rather took them aback by pointing out that Christopher Mayhew had won the seat for Labour in 1945! It had also been Labour-held in the 1920s. The Alliance canvassers in 1983 were of course correct and the events of 38 or 60 years earlier irrelevant. . But I see that some are predicting a Labour win there next month! |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 14, 2024 19:29:03 GMT
The Alliance canvassers in 1983 were of course correct and the events of 38 or 60 years earlier irrelevant. . But I see that some are predicting a Labour win there next month! The position in 1983 is equally irrelevant to where politics is now. |
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Post by shevii on Jun 14, 2024 19:29:44 GMT
Has Rod Stewart left the game, burned his flag and got on the plane home yet?
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 19:33:59 GMT
But I see that some are predicting a Labour win there next month! The position in 1983 is equally irrelevant to where politics is now. Those canvassers had no solid basis for their claim and were relying on hunch. Labour had been a clear second in 1979. The seat was not in doubt anyway with John Macgregor holding for the Tories by over 12,000. |
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Post by RAF on Jun 14, 2024 19:42:15 GMT
Boris Johnson "If Labour wins big, the Commons will be crammed with Palestinian-flag waving Corbynistas - and it won't just be the rich getting soaked, it'll be everyone. Voting Tory is the ONLY way to stop Starmergeddon" He makes that sound like a bad thing... Boris is everything Max Hastings said he was. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 20:03:15 GMT
Cant get TV coverage… any news aboot Scotland at halfers?
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Post by RAF on Jun 14, 2024 20:10:22 GMT
Cant get TV coverage… any news aboot Scotland at halfers? They have shared 3 goals with Germany. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 14, 2024 20:12:33 GMT
Cant get TV coverage… any news aboot Scotland at halfers? No news is good news |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 20:20:30 GMT
Boris Johnson "If Labour wins big, the Commons will be crammed with Palestinian-flag waving Corbynistas - and it won't just be the rich getting soaked, it'll be everyone. Voting Tory is the ONLY way to stop Starmergeddon" He makes that sound like a bad thing... Boris is everything Max Hastings said he was. Max must use some coarse language then. |
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Post by eor on Jun 14, 2024 20:43:25 GMT
Graham "I am very critical of the media for having included Farage" Justifiably so, in one way, BUT the media are about entertainment. They have to keep our attention, it's their life blood. In this half dead election they would be bonkers not to include Farage Not really the point. During election campaign periods the coverage given to parties is regulated by Ofcom which takes a views as to whether a party should have Major or Minor party status.Parties which have won seats in Parliament in recent years will be labelled Major - other smaller parties will be Minor.It could reasonably be contended that Reform's poll boost owes a great deal to Broadcasters abusing their position here. You might be a bit out of date there graham - Ofcom don't seem to have had major ("larger") parties since 2016, instead expecting broadcasters to make their own judgements based on "evidence of past electoral support and/or current support". www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-and-on-demand/broadcast-standards/section-six-elections-referendumsThey do note that when judging complaints they will put greater weight on previous (electoral) support than current (opinion polling) but given the guidance data they offer on both measures to aid broadcasters in this election, it's hard to see Galloway would have any cause for gripe about the TV debates. www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/resources/documents/tv-radio-and-on-demand/broadcast-guidance/programme-guidance/election-guidance/general-election-digest-2024.pdf |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 14, 2024 21:08:01 GMT
5-1 and the Scots needed a German to score their goal too! It's good to see the German team playing well at the beginning of a tournament; they are usually slow starters. I'm not sure they are going to win the tournament, but I think if they can replicate this performance they could go very deep. At least for the neutral, much more enjoyable than politics.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 14, 2024 21:08:14 GMT
Silence descends. The footie has started |
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Post by jib on Jun 14, 2024 21:11:27 GMT
Farage is doing a great job of dragging the Tories into some kind of electoral pit of doom. Just like in 2019 at the European Parliament election. He destroyed May at that time, and we got the lovely Boris. I have no doubts he'll destroy Sunak this year. I'm not sure many here will like what emerges. |
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Post by eor on Jun 14, 2024 21:28:48 GMT
WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE UA; Clydebank Central is a Labour hold, and by the sound of such details as a yet available a comfortable one. However, full result is not yet out. This means the SNP have still not won anything since May 2023. They are unlikely to win the Highland one that counts today. Thanks as ever for these painstaking updates pjw1961 - one thing I'm curious about tho; given the voting system used for local elections in Scotland, aren't the SNP likely to be at a significant disadvantage in most local by-elections, when compared to the original election, by dint of those being for one seat rather than three? I know there will be all kinds of local issues, independent candidates and so on as there are elsewhere too, and the support for the SGP could matter a lot too in a given seat, but... given the broad trends we've seen of voting aligning on Nationalist/Unionist lines, on a crude simplification wouldn't anything over about 30% first-choice support likely be enough to ensure winning a seat in a three-member local election, but something significantly closer to 50% support be needed to be confident of winning a single-member by-election in the same ward? |
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Post by mercian on Jun 14, 2024 21:39:55 GMT
Very interesting article. Thanks. I'm interested in vote efficiency and my own figures show votes per seat since 1945: Party Best Worst Average
Con 32,777 1983 58,188 1997 41,182
Lab 25,968 2001 50,837 2019 39,615
Lib 92,583 2001 432,823 Feb 1974 254,596
I interpret this as meaning that Labour have a slightly more efficient vote on average than the Tories, contrary to the popular idea that they tend to pile up votes where they don't need them and also that the Tory vote has been slightly more volatile. And of course we can see why the poor old Libs/LibDems want PR.
A couple of other points - in every single post-war election including the seemingly anomalous 1951 the party with the most efficient votes per seat won, with the sole exception of 2010. Also the much-vaunted 2017 election was Labour's worst performance in votes per seat since the war at that time (until worsened further in 2019). It is logical therefore for the Labour campaigners in particular to be directed away from seats that they are likely to win anyway.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 14, 2024 21:47:18 GMT
"Germany kickstart Euro 2024 in style and pile on the pain for 10-man Scotland"
I see the problem there Scotland needed to find 11 players.
Unfortunately they couldn't find any.
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Post by mercian on Jun 14, 2024 22:01:03 GMT
Mercian "I could give an equally long list of what I consider to be Tory achievements which you wouldn't agree were achievements," Please do! (I'm not being funny - genuinely interested in your pov) I'll give you sale of council houses, on balance.... (though not the failure to use the revenue to build more) Ok, but I don't want to get attacked from all sides. Most of them happened under the only PM who came anywhere near my position - Margaret Thatcher. Privatisation of most of the inefficient sclerotic treasury-draining nationalised industries and selling them largely to the public, not the big institutional investors thus hugely increasing the number of ordinary people owning shares and making those companies behave like proper companies and being responsive to their customers instead of being condescending and authoritarian (I had a bad experience with British Gas  ). Destruction of the cosy 'Butskellism' of the post-war period when there wasn't a fag paper between the two main parties. Reducing basic rate Income Tax from 33% to 20% where it has mostly stayed ever since. Brexit! Falklands War Playing a big part in bringing down the Soviet Union even though Putin is now trying to resurrect it because of weak Western leaders. That'll do for starters. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 14, 2024 22:09:19 GMT
pjw1961 Yet. I think Keir Hardie had gone before Labour replaced the Liberals. I agree that at the moment Reform is not much more than a one-man band but if they did win 1 or even 2 or 3 seats, some experienced politicians might join them. Particularly any Tories on the right who lose their seat. As oldnat noted from the Yougov polling, a surprising number of young people seem to be joining Reform. I had been wondering about this, after pundits said similar about young people moving right in the Euro elections*. The housing problem is becoming increasingly acute with another one-and-a-half million net arriving in the last two years without a concomitant increase in housebuilding. If Reform add some more lefty economic policies it could be significant in terms of getting past a ceiling based on a focus on immigration, but that may not sit well with the more neolib Farage. * is that a thing or not? Anyone got info on the Euros regarding the younger vote. Are they moving right or is that media fluff? I wouldn't be surprised if support for Reform is rising among the young simply because a lot of them are naturally rebellious and are impatient with traditional authority (or I was anyway 😁). I expect Greens will be benefitting from the same effect. |
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Post by norbold on Jun 14, 2024 22:10:23 GMT
Has anyone asked Rishi if he is supporting Scotland tonight? I hear he's supporting Wales. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 14, 2024 22:14:50 GMT
WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE UA; Clydebank Central is a Labour hold, and by the sound of such details as a yet available a comfortable one. However, full result is not yet out. This means the SNP have still not won anything since May 2023. They are unlikely to win the Highland one that counts today. Thanks as ever for these painstaking updates pjw1961 - one thing I'm curious about tho; given the voting system used for local elections in Scotland, aren't the SNP likely to be at a significant disadvantage in most local by-elections, when compared to the original election, by dint of those being for one seat rather than three? I know there will be all kinds of local issues, independent candidates and so on as there are elsewhere too, and the support for the SGP could matter a lot too in a given seat, but... given the broad trends we've seen of voting aligning on Nationalist/Unionist lines, on a crude simplification wouldn't anything over about 30% first-choice support likely be enough to ensure winning a seat in a three-member local election, but something significantly closer to 50% support be needed to be confident of winning a single-member by-election in the same ward? Yes, that is a fair point and it is also the case that most (but not all) of the local government by-elections happen to have fallen in areas that were not stellar for the SNP. Nevertheless, if the SNP was polling at the levels they were under Sturgeon there has been a winnable seat or two in that time. The Rutherglen Westminster loss also falls in this period of course. Broadly speaking Scottish local government results are reflecting the Scottish polling quite well, whereas in England the Conservatives are over-performing slightly compared to Westminster polling. However, I think that reflects local politics and doesn't mean much for the General Election outcome (sorry Mercian!) |
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Post by mercian on Jun 14, 2024 22:21:48 GMT
pjw1961 Yet. I think Keir Hardie had gone before Labour replaced the Liberals. I agree that at the moment Reform is not much more than a one-man band but if they did win 1 or even 2 or 3 seats, some experienced politicians might join them. Particularly any Tories on the right who lose their seat. The thing about Labour in the 1920s is that the parliamentary party was only a minor part of a huge movement with the backing of mass trade unions with millions of members and considerable campaigning resources. That gave it the strength and resilience to become a major party. Reform is pretty much the diametric opposite - a limited company, owned by Farage and with 45,000 members and almost no elected representatives at any level. It seems much too weak to replace the Conservatives. Farage would clearly rather try to take over the Tory brand. Interesting Guardian piece on Farage here - he seems too much of a loner and control freak to succeed in taking over the Conservatives, where he would have to get on with others who considered themselves his equal: www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jun/14/he-was-a-deeply-unembarrassed-racist-nigel-farage-by-those-who-have-known-himI take the point. He didn't even get on with the UKIP apparatus at times when he was leader. Like traditional parties they had some sort of managing committee (I can't remember what it was called) and he fell out with them a few times even when he was leader. Hence him starting TBP and now Reform, where he's not answerable to anyone because he owns it. He does have a powerful debating style but on his own he's a sort of right-wing version of Galloway who is also a good debater (IMO). I was just envisaging a not-impossible scenario where Reform gain a couple of seats and aren't far off Tories total vote, At that point some right-wing Tories who lost their seats might join, and even one or two cross the floor. Then it would start to look a bit more serious. |
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Post by James E on Jun 14, 2024 22:23:59 GMT
Very interesting article. Thanks. I'm interested in vote efficiency and my own figures show votes per seat since 1945: Party Best Worst Average
Con 32,777 1983 58,188 1997 41,182
Lab 25,968 2001 50,837 2019 39,615
Lib 92,583 2001 432,823 Feb 1974 254,596
I interpret this as meaning that Labour have a slightly more efficient vote on average than the Tories, contrary to the popular idea that they tend to pile up votes where they don't need them and also that the Tory vote has been slightly more volatile. And of course we can see why the poor old Libs/LibDems want PR.
A couple of other points - in every single post-war election including the seemingly anomalous 1951 the party with the most efficient votes per seat won, with the sole exception of 2010. Also the much-vaunted 2017 election was Labour's worst performance in votes per seat since the war at that time (until worsened further in 2019). It is logical therefore for the Labour campaigners in particular to be directed away from seats that they are likely to win anyway.
Historically, the 'efficiency' of each party's vote has varied wildly, as the graphs show. Neither has an inherently 'more efficient' vote, although from 2015 onwards it appears that the Conservatives have had the more 'efficient' vote. Looking at the graph about three-quarters of the way down entitled "the Conservatives vanishing FPTP bias" what James Kangasooriam now reckons is that lead required by Labour for an overall majority is about 4% (and about the same for the Tories, for what that's worth). So, the same as I wrote on this forum in May and August of last year.... ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/thread/67/labour-win-outright-majorityukpollingreport2.proboards.com/thread/63/april-2023-lab-con-ldem?page=82 |
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Post by mercian on Jun 14, 2024 22:27:09 GMT
Thanks Carfrew, the lefty economic things are/were important to me, but I suspect not to Mercian. I'd been struggling to think of actual improvements to our lives by the Tories, but decent periods of economic growth must count, as must peaceful de-colonisation. I think they created the National Theatre. For Mercian, the defenstration of the unions by Thatcher would be a plus - and I look back on the days of Arthur Scargill and Jack Jones with very little affection myself. Heseltine did some worthwhile stuff on inner city regeneration....Some of the privatisations, maybe, for those who like that sort of thing... (but not water or rail, I think). But the last fifteen years draw a blank, except maybe gay marriage. So, Mercian, I think I'm about the same age as you, and I like your posts without ever agreeing with them. (okay, occasionally!) I do really want to know what the Tories have done for you. I hope I've answered you now. Sorry for the delay but I don't spend all day on here. Carfrew added a few things, some of which I agree with, such as the Clean Air Acts. I think they also dealt with Rachmanism. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 14, 2024 22:29:44 GMT
The thing about Labour in the 1920s is that the parliamentary party was only a minor part of a huge movement with the backing of mass trade unions with millions of members and considerable campaigning resources. That gave it the strength and resilience to become a major party. Reform is pretty much the diametric opposite - a limited company, owned by Farage and with 45,000 members and almost no elected representatives at any level. It seems much too weak to replace the Conservatives. Farage would clearly rather try to take over the Tory brand. Interesting Guardian piece on Farage here - he seems too much of a loner and control freak to succeed in taking over the Conservatives, where he would have to get on with others who considered themselves his equal: www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jun/14/he-was-a-deeply-unembarrassed-racist-nigel-farage-by-those-who-have-known-himI take the point. He didn't even get on with the UKIP apparatus at times when he was leader. Like traditional parties they had some sort of managing committee (I can't remember what it was called) and he fell out with them a few times even when he was leader. Hence him starting TBP and now Reform, where he's not answerable to anyone because he owns it. He does have a powerful debating style but on his own he's a sort of right-wing version of Galloway who is also a good debater (IMO). I was just envisaging a not-impossible scenario where Reform gain a couple of seats and aren't far off Tories total vote, At that point some right-wing Tories who lost their seats might join, and even one or two cross the floor. Then it would start to look a bit more serious. That is possible, but Farage fell out badly with Carswell and I suspect would end up doing to same with anyone who he saw as a challenge to his dominance. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 14, 2024 22:30:46 GMT
Silence descends. The footie has started Nice to see Scottish goalkeeping traditions are being maintained! Remember Frank Haffey? |
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Jun 14, 2024 22:40:55 GMT
Mercian
Thanks!
Of course, the major achievement I'd list would be Ted Heath and Geoffrey Ripon taking us INTO the EU! (though at the time, as a signed up leftie, I was against joining - even went on a demo. I was also, seems to me now, wrong about the miners' strike. I didn't see what a dirty and outdated industry coal had become, though the ruthless way the miners were dealt with is another matter. As for the Falklands War, I remember it as something sickening, the bullishness of the whole country , the flag waving, and feeling utterly alienated. I could never list a war as an achievement.)
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