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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 14, 2024 16:19:40 GMT
BMG poll reported in i newspaperThere's a lot about Farage and the Tories in the article, but I'll just quote party VI Fieldwork 11-12/6/24 Lab 41% (-1) Con 21% (-2) Ref 14% (-2) LD 12% (+3) Grn 6% (=) SNP 3% (-1) Oth 1% (=) Comparison with 4-5/6/24 So total 6% down and 3% up. Presumably just rounding, but it does seem a big difference. There must be a lot of x.4% numbers in there. OK I've got the tables now. Con 206/959 = 21.48% Lab 397/959 = 41.40% Ref 139/959 = 14.49% LD 115/959 = 11.99% Grn 53/959 = 5.53% SNP 31/959 = 3.23% Oth 11/959 = 1.15% (PC) 7/959 = 0.73% (Plaid Cymru not shown in published table but would equate to 15% in Wales alone). It looks like what is published in the i newspaper is BMG's Table 7 (the last of the VI tables). It's very helpful having numbers as well as percentages, but note that the numbers themselves are rounded, so that Tory 206 is actually 205.986569, which I guess is a result of removing don't knows and won't says and correcting for LTV. Life's too short for chasing after factors that affect the second decimal place.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 14, 2024 16:31:05 GMT
EC's updated seat prediction has the Tories recovering a handful of seats, Labour down a little and Lib Dems strong: CON 80 / LAB 461 / LIB 63 / REF 1 / GRN 2 / SNP 20 / PC 3 / GALLOWAY 1 / CORBYN 1 - www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.htmlUKPR1v2 quite different: LAB 384 / CON 192 / LIB 31 / REF 0 / GRN 1 / SNP 22 / PC 2 however I don't know what dates their data is from and they also predict Corbyn to get <1% so issues there... UKPR1.1 have an article explaining the problem they have with high-profile candidates outside of the main parties and how they plan to address this: pollingreport.uk/articles/edge-cases-jeremy-corbyn-lee-anderson-george-galloway-richard-ticeI don't think Galloway will win Rochdale in a GE.
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 14, 2024 16:35:18 GMT
Tory Election Strategies. 1. In 2010 the Tories big message was that Labour spent too much money and caused a financial crisis. They made a mess of the election by overplaying the austerity threat. 2. In 2015 the final message was the danger of a Coalition of Chaos between Lab and SNP and esp the Lib Dems. It is said to have worked, re the decimation of the Lib Dems. wch produced a small Tory majority.
3. In 2017, give us a majority to sort out Brexit plus more austerity. It largely failed. 4. In 2019 Get Brexit Done and Labour are led by a nut job. Couldn't lose. Esp as Lab voters stayed at home as they had no faith in Corbyn. 5.In 2024, it's don't vote Labour or they will have a huge majority and raise your taxes, whereas we will lower them. Feeble. After all the point of FPTP is to produce a working majority. And there is not mch difference between one of 50 and a 150. Does anyone believe the tax promise?
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 14, 2024 16:36:31 GMT
The right wing media/ and some in the Tory Party are now warning of a Labour super majority due to voters voting Reform rather than Tory. I dont understand this strategy as they are doing this while at the same time Giving Reform Uk/ Nigel Farage a lot of coverage boosting them up in the polls. Surely these 2 strategies are contradictory. Why dont the Tories and Media start scrutinising Reform UK more and their policies and vetting of candidates if they want reform voters to switch to Tories. Just to note that the phrase "super majority" has no meaning in a UK context. In some polities a two thirds majority (or the like) lets a party change the constitution (or similar) and this is a super majority. Nothing equivalent exists in the UK system - a government with a majority of 40 and a good whipping operation is as powerful as one with a majority of 400 - indeed possibly more so, since it is easier to discourage rebellions on the government side.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 14, 2024 16:47:46 GMT
EC's updated seat prediction has the Tories recovering a handful of seats, Labour down a little and Lib Dems strong: CON 80 / LAB 461 / LIB 63 / REF 1 / GRN 2 / SNP 20 / PC 3 / GALLOWAY 1 / CORBYN 1 - www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.htmlUKPR1v2 quite different: LAB 384 / CON 192 / LIB 31 / REF 0 / GRN 1 / SNP 22 / PC 2 however I don't know what dates their data is from and they also predict Corbyn to get <1% so issues there... UKPR1.1 have an article explaining the problem they have with high-profile candidates outside of the main parties and how they plan to address this: pollingreport.uk/articles/edge-cases-jeremy-corbyn-lee-anderson-george-galloway-richard-ticeI don't think Galloway will win Rochdale in a GE. Algorithms are not magic; they can only make predictions based on input data. If there is no input data, then the prediction is just random noise. I agree with pjw1961 that Labour will take back Rochdale. I would not like to bet on the others; it's difficult to know what the incumbency factor is when people are running against the party they were previously an MP for. As for the main Reform UK candidates, I think it is around 50:50 that they will win one or more seats. EC has Farage with a much higher probability than that of winning Clacton, but I'm not convinced yet that his supporters will turn out.
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Post by shevii on Jun 14, 2024 16:49:22 GMT
Election Maps UK @electionmapsuk Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 41% (-1) CON: 19% (-3) RFM: 17% (+1) LDM: 11% (+2) GRN: 6% (+1) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @wstoneinsight , 12-13 Jun. Changes w/ 5-6 Jun.
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Post by bedknobsandboomstick on Jun 14, 2024 16:50:41 GMT
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Jun 14, 2024 16:51:54 GMT
Mercian
"I could give an equally long list of what I consider to be Tory achievements which you wouldn't agree were achievements,"
Please do! (I'm not being funny - genuinely interested in your pov) I'll give you sale of council houses, on balance.... (though not the failure to use the revenue to build more)
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 14, 2024 16:59:36 GMT
Mercian "I could give an equally long list of what I consider to be Tory achievements which you wouldn't agree were achievements," Please do! (I'm not being funny - genuinely interested in your pov) I'll give you sale of council houses, on balance.... (though not the failure to use the revenue to build more) Just off the top of my head: Joining the common market which many on here seemed to like. Before that, Supermac ended national service, enacted the clean air act. Built loads of houses, competing with Labour over the matter, and kept much of what Labour did in 1945. He also kept a policy of full employment, despite opposition from people in his party who resigned In protest. (MacMillan called it “a little local difficulty”) (Even Thatch had things like increasing the numbers in HE, before Blair took it further). Mercian "but having lived through every Labour government since Wilson's first administration, I'm not expecting anything good." Ah, yes, ... and having myself also lived through every labour government since Wilson (and hugely benefitted from Attlee's) I am pretty optimistic! (from the top of my head: the NHS and welfare state, gay laws , abortion laws, liberalisation, minimum wage, sure start, more money for the arts, cancelling global debt, saving the economy after the banking collapse.... Northern Ireland... etc.... Like to give a list of what the Tories have achieved? Brexit, obviously. Top rates of taxation. Michelle Mone....) this is a list of things liberals or social democrats might typically like. Indeed liberals championed quite a lot of it. Things which might provide a safety net to maybe keep people from utterly falling into the abyss, but still unfortunately allowing the ladder to keep being pulled up, with increasingly unaffordable property, unaffordable bills, and stagnating wages. What’s missing are the lefty things like the nationalisations, mass housebuilding, creating lots of good jobs. The mechanisms of economic equality that levelled up post-war and were ditched from Thatcher onwards. (Notably, Tories in the fifties were on board with a lot of it, maintaining most of the nationlisations* to keep essential bills low, pursuing full employment to give better wages and job security, better pensions, mass housebuilding to make it affordable etc. * I think they re-privatised steel?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 14, 2024 17:21:33 GMT
pjw1961 Yet. I think Keir Hardie had gone before Labour replaced the Liberals. I agree that at the moment Reform is not much more than a one-man band but if they did win 1 or even 2 or 3 seats, some experienced politicians might join them. Particularly any Tories on the right who lose their seat. As oldnat noted from the Yougov polling, a surprising number of young people seem to be joining Reform. I had been wondering about this, after pundits said similar about young people moving right in the Euro elections*. The housing problem is becoming increasingly acute with another one-and-a-half million net arriving in the last two years without a concomitant increase in housebuilding. If Reform add some more lefty economic policies it could be significant in terms of getting past a ceiling based on a focus on immigration, but that may not sit well with the more neolib Farage. * is that a thing or not? Anyone got info on the Euros regarding the younger vote. Are they moving right or is that media fluff?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 17:28:34 GMT
UK Forecast continuing on it’s merry way forecasting a Tory wipeout. “UK Forecast Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2019 Labour 42.0% (+10.0%) 461 - 487 +261 to +287 Conservatives 20.6% (-23.1%) 74 - 97 -297 to -274 Reform 15.2% (+13.2%) 1 - 7 +1 to +7 Liberal Democrats 10.1% (-1.4%) 38 - 43 +29 to +34 Green 5.9% (+3.2%) 0 - 1 -1 to nc SNP 3.0% (-0.9%) 20 - 24 -28 to -24 Plaid Cymru 0.6% (+0.2%) 2 - 5 nc to +3 Speaker 1 nc Northern Ireland 18 nc “
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 14, 2024 17:29:20 GMT
pjw1961 Yet. I think Keir Hardie had gone before Labour replaced the Liberals. I agree that at the moment Reform is not much more than a one-man band but if they did win 1 or even 2 or 3 seats, some experienced politicians might join them. Particularly any Tories on the right who lose their seat. The thing about Labour in the 1920s is that the parliamentary party was only a minor part of a huge movement with the backing of mass trade unions with millions of members and considerable campaigning resources. That gave it the strength and resilience to become a major party. Reform is pretty much the diametric opposite - a limited company, owned by Farage and with 45,000 members and almost no elected representatives at any level. It seems much too weak to replace the Conservatives. Farage would clearly rather try to take over the Tory brand. Interesting Guardian piece on Farage here - he seems too much of a loner and control freak to succeed in taking over the Conservatives, where he would have to get on with others who considered themselves his equal: www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jun/14/he-was-a-deeply-unembarrassed-racist-nigel-farage-by-those-who-have-known-him
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 14, 2024 17:37:40 GMT
Thanks to pjw1961 flagging up the article on Farage, Corbyn, Galloway et al on UKPRv2, I looked at other articles on that site. This one on Scottish weightings is worth reading. Just in time for the election we have overhauled our algorithm to fix the main complaint of followers. The algorithm hitherto applied national polling results to Scotland, this dramatically underestimated changes in support for parties in Scotland. We now apply much greater weight to Scotland specific polling versus national polling. As a result our forecast for SNP seats has dropped from in the forty seat area to in the high teens. This big change in the seats calculation pushes up the Labour seat count at the expense of the SNP.Intuitively, it seems right that more weight should be put on Party VI in full Scottish polls rather than Scottish sub-samples of national polling, but with only six Scottish polls since the election was called, all by different pollsters, it is difficult to separate out real changes from house effects. Still we must give them credit for trying.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 14, 2024 17:44:45 GMT
A bump stock is an attachment that can be fitted to a semi automatic rifle to effectively make it close to fully automatic. It's was attached to several of the AR15's that mass murderer Stephen Paddock used in Las Vegas . He fired more than 1,000 rounds in less than ten minutes , killing 60 people and wounding at least 413. The ensuing panic brought the total number of injured to approximately 867.
The attack triggered a response and in 2018 the ATF bureau designated weapons with bump stocks as machine guns which are illegal for private ownership.
Needless to say the christofascist maga dominated supreme court by a 6:3 ruling today has reversed the ruling with all republican appointed justices voting in favour.
Which should make it easier for maga coupsters to kill people more efficiently when the traitor re- enacts his greatest hits after the general election.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 14, 2024 17:52:41 GMT
Sunakered is at the G7 meeting in his capacity as prime minister. He's taking the opportunity to deliver a party political broadcast during his statement which is of course entirely inappropriate.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 14, 2024 17:54:38 GMT
is that a thing or not? Anyone got info on the Euros? Here's the Wikipedia article en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_European_Parliament_electionEssentially the Greens, S&D (=Labour), and Renew (=Macron) all lost seats in double figures as did ID on the far Right. EPP came out just ahead but ECR(=Meloni) were big winners on the night. There are quite a few NI members who don't belong to a political group (like AfD who were in ID but were suspended before the election).
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Jun 14, 2024 18:00:07 GMT
Thanks Carfrew, the lefty economic things are/were important to me, but I suspect not to Mercian. I'd been struggling to think of actual improvements to our lives by the Tories, but decent periods of economic growth must count, as must peaceful de-colonisation. I think they created the National Theatre. For Mercian, the defenstration of the unions by Thatcher would be a plus - and I look back on the days of Arthur Scargill and Jack Jones with very little affection myself. Heseltine did some worthwhile stuff on inner city regeneration....Some of the privatisations, maybe, for those who like that sort of thing... (but not water or rail, I think). But the last fifteen years draw a blank, except maybe gay marriage.
So, Mercian, I think I'm about the same age as you, and I like your posts without ever agreeing with them. (okay, occasionally!) I do really want to know what the Tories have done for you.
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Post by RAF on Jun 14, 2024 18:03:59 GMT
Sunakered is at the G7 meeting in his capacity as prime minister. He's taking the opportunity to deliver a party political broadcast during his statement which is of course entirely inappropriate. Self-preservation is a primordial instinct.
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 14, 2024 18:05:53 GMT
Thanks Carfrew, the lefty economic things are/were important to me, but I suspect not to Mercian. I'd been struggling to think of actual improvements to our lives by the Tories, but decent periods of economic growth must count, as must peaceful de-colonisation. I think they created the National Theatre. For Mercian, the defenstration of the unions by Thatcher would be a plus - and I look back on the days of Arthur Scargill and Jack Jones with very little affection myself. Heseltine did some worthwhile stuff on inner city regeneration....Some of the privatisations, maybe, for those who like that sort of thing... (but not water or rail, I think). But the last fifteen years draw a blank, except maybe gay marriage. So, Mercian, I think I'm about the same age as you, and I like your posts without ever agreeing with them. (okay, occasionally!) I do really want to know what the Tories have done for you. Rich people get to keep more of the money poor people work for? Anyone with enough money can get to drive their children to the best school rather than their local one? I'm struggling after that too....
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Post by norbold on Jun 14, 2024 18:22:24 GMT
Latest update as there does seem to be a bit of a change noticed through canvassing returns. Over the last 2 or 3 days, we do appear to be recording more Tories who are moving to Reform, so our Nige does seem to be picking up more ex-Tories as well as the "none of the above" brigade. So far, no perceptible change from Labour voters who are sticking to Labour. Of course, this may have something to do with the particular areas being canvassed, but I think Sunak's gaffes (DDay and Sky TV) are having an effect on voters down this way.
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Post by RAF on Jun 14, 2024 18:34:32 GMT
After the election, the Tories might want to take a look at how Reform appear to be polling around 15% with 18-25 year olds whereas the Tories can't reach double figures.
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 18:36:16 GMT
How important is canvassing and voter contact at a General Election? I am not persuaded that at a General Election voters are more or less likely to support or turnout for a candidate because they have been canvassed. Voter contact is much more important for local elections where turnout is much lower.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jun 14, 2024 18:36:46 GMT
In Scots Law, you can legally change your name to anything you want (as long as it's not for a fraudulent purpose) just by letting people know that that's how you want to be known. Isn't passing yourself off as another person in an election fraudulent? If that person fails to get elected (or re-elected) as a result, surely that is a financial loss to them? That judgement would be a matter for a court. I was just giving members some information.
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Post by shevii on Jun 14, 2024 18:46:02 GMT
How important is canvassing and voter contact at a General Election? I am not persuaded that at a General Election voters are more or less likely to support or turnout for a candidate because they have been canvassed. Voter contact is much more important for local elections where turnout is much lower. For the squeeze vote it's absolutely vital I think. Not so sure about get out to vote (including the identifying of supporters in the first place) but in a tight contest probably does make a bit of a difference.
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 19:00:03 GMT
How important is canvassing and voter contact at a General Election? I am not persuaded that at a General Election voters are more or less likely to support or turnout for a candidate because they have been canvassed. Voter contact is much more important for local elections where turnout is much lower. For the squeeze vote it's absolutely vital I think. Not so sure about get out to vote (including the identifying of supporters in the first place) but in a tight contest probably does make a bit of a difference. To some extent the attempt to squeeze can betray a lack of confidence - and can just as well be achieved by a leaflet. I have only once experienced this - in 1983 when living in South Norfolk. Twoo Alliance canvassers arrived at the door - one Liberal the other SDP - and tried to get me to vote tactically on the basis that Labour was not in the race there. I refused to do so - and rather took them aback by pointing out that Christopher Mayhew had won the seat for Labour in 1945! It had also been Labour-held in the 1920s.
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Post by RAF on Jun 14, 2024 19:05:17 GMT
Has anyone asked Rishi if he is supporting Scotland tonight?
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Jun 14, 2024 19:12:16 GMT
Silence descends. The footie has started
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 19:19:47 GMT
Silence descends. The footie has started Well I am rooting for Germany and Serbia this weekend.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 14, 2024 19:20:06 GMT
Silence descends. The footie has started Nice to see Scottish goalkeeping traditions are being maintained!
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Post by RAF on Jun 14, 2024 19:21:45 GMT
Early days. Still almost 3 weeks to go until election day.
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