Do you think Labour will win an outright majority?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

If you like you can add further context, e.g. if you expect a big win etc., in the comments 

[pjw1961]

Aug 1, 2023 19:51:00 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

If you like you can add further context, e.g. if you expect a big win etc., in the comments 

Labour majority of between 10 and 40 - say 25. 

[expatr]

Yes because I suspect that that Tories will win fewer than 200 seats.

Even with the SNP still gaining around 30 seats (which is what I suspect they will get) this will still be a majority >100

Reasons for this

1 Sunak's personal brand is suffering badly. The early "well he's competent, reasonable and personable" line is collapsing - his petulance whenever he's asked a difficult question and just how awkward he is when around real people will really hit badly in a campaign situation

2 Tribal Tories are demoralised

1+2 = a lot of Tories staying at home

3 Marginal but there are clearly 2-3% of the population who switched Conservative to Reform when Sunak was annointed leader. We see you and we know what you are. This will have a marginal effect in a few places.

4 Tactical voting is likely grip even without formal pacts - recent decreases in the Labour lead have been Lab to LD - the Tories have stayed below 30%. (We really need some more MRP to confirm this)

5 Something of a Labour revival in Scotland

Whether this is a good thing is questionable but this seems the most likely at the moment

[shevii]

It seems odds on that Labour get a comfortable majority and I think the polling that suggests people don't think they will is just down to not paying attention to the polls.

expatr summed up nicely. Looking at road maps where Labour don't get a majority:

- SNP need to clean up in Scotland which is not impossible but doesn't seem likely at this stage, not least because plenty of soft Unionist Tories are currently backing Labour and of course SNP popularity itself has been hit.
- Reform UK vote needs to go back to the Tories in significantly different proportions to the Green vote tactically voting Labour. I don't know the motivations for the Reform vote- whether simply wanting more right wing policies or a proxy vote against the Tories when they wouldn't vote for anything to the left of them. I do think the Green vote will hold up but in the marginals I wouldn't be so certain with the desire to get rid of the Tories and the squeeze campaign. Reform vote may hold up like UKIP did in 2015, especially as this includes a lot of Get Brexit Done voters who are not wedded to the Tories.
- Labour voters not being energised to go out and vote for them and a poor election campaign where there is little for voters to get excited about. I think there will be depressed turnout but not to that degree given the currently strong anti Tory sentiment in the country.
- A gradual mood of things being better economically over the next year among traditional Tory voters. Doesn't seem that likely to me there will be a feel good factor in play in little over a year's time.

All these things need to happen to deny Labour a majority. Depressed Labour turnout as we saw in 2015 is the only real danger for Labour.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Aug 2, 2023 8:05:52 GMT shevii said:

It seems odds on that Labour get a comfortable majority and I think the polling that suggests people don't think they will is just down to not paying attention to the polls.

- Labour voters not being energised to go out and vote for them and a poor election campaign where there is little for voters to get excited about. I think there will be depressed turnout but not to that degree given the currently strong anti Tory sentiment in the country.

Hi shevii, I think a Lab OM at the next GE is highly probably and the most likely outcome, all of the indicators are pointing to it. I agree that the vote is likely to be depressed, but I think there will be just as many stay at home Tory voters as Labour ones. Traditionally, it was always assumed a high turnout favoured Labour, I'm not so sure it works like that anymore.

Sunak is trying his best to stoke up divisive policies to mobilise his base, but Starmer isn't Corbyn.

It will take something dramatic for the Tories to turn this around. However, one should never underestimate the advantage their dominance of the media (which now fully includes the BBC) and agenda gives them. We still haven't seen any of the Tory rags flip as some did prior to '97 - if that does happen then the Tories really are 100% toast.

[shevii]

Aug 2, 2023 9:02:17 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Aug 2, 2023 8:05:52 GMT shevii said:

Hi shevii , I think a Lab OM at the next GE is highly probably and the most likely outcome, all of the indicators are pointing to it. I agree that the vote is likely to be depressed, but I think there will be just as many stay at home Tory voters as Labour ones. Traditionally, it was always assumed a high turnout favoured Labour, I'm not so sure it works like that anymore.

Sunak is trying his best to stoke up divisive policies to mobilise his base, but Starmer isn't Corbyn.

It will take something dramatic for the Tories to turn this around. However, one should never underestimate the advantage their dominance of the media (which now fully includes the BBC) and agenda gives them. We still haven't seen any of the Tory rags flip as some did prior to '97 - if that does happen then the Tories really are 100% toast.

If I remember right I think the Sun only flipped during the campaign itself in 1997, although probably anyone in the know knew this would happen perhaps a year in advance.  Starmer is definitely courting Murdoch and I think I'm right in saying (perhaps wrongly as I only read the twitter extracts) that The Times is being quite critical of the Tories.  I suppose if I could bring myself to read the Sun I might have a better idea of their balance of articles concerning Labour and whether they are still hedging their bets but the groundwork has to be done well in advance if they wanted to rubbish Starmer like they did Kinnock.

This forum is a really bad barometer of a cross section of the population and politically interested people are a small percentage of the population, but I do find it interesting that on this forum a few like yourself are considering a Green vote where once it was definitely Labour with or without a peg on their nose in the voting booth. This attitude among many seems to have increased over the life of this parliament and yet the Green vote in opinion polls is little changed, even if the Greens are now making solid gains at local level.  I have to counter any potential loss of Labour votes through Green votes or apathy with my knowledge of a limited number of swing voters who will likely vote and the attitude seems to be "I guess it has to be Labour even if I'm not that impressed with them/Starmer".  Social media will probably be bad for Labour though because they have alienated their left wing twitter supporters and those memes are going to be widespread and unlikely to help the get out to vote.  Labour are too far ahead for this to be decisive though.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Aug 2, 2023 9:27:32 GMT shevii said:

Aug 2, 2023 9:02:17 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

 "I guess it has to be Labour even if I'm not that impressed with them/Starmer".  Social media will probably be bad for Labour though because they have alienated their left wing twitter supporters and those memes are going to be widespread and unlikely to help the get out to vote.  Labour are too far ahead for this to be decisive though.

I think you are right on this. For the likes of me, who vote positively, its seems the environmental is becoming an increasing factor in VI (and that's not restricted to those on the left like me - I have friends/acquaintances from across the political spectrum who are starting to feel the same way). However, many on the centre left, are atm driven in their VI by getting the Tories out as the first priority.

My own main concern about Starmer, is that I don't think he is actually a particularly good politician. The current debate over the environmental policies is much more an opportunity for him to show real leadership than it is a threat to him - and Tory attacks along the lines of cost of living are easily counted (he just has to redirect focus to the Tory record on the economy). If he was to do this, he would 100% secure my vote - but from what I've seen of him I doubt he will. And he really doesn't have the courage to stand up for what is right, how is he going to fare as PM? 

[James E]

One point we have not covered is the percentage lead Labour would need to get to 326 seats and an overall majority in the HoC. One oft-quoted figure is 12%, by applying UNS to the GE2019 results. But historically, this is a very variable figure. Back in 2005 when Labour last won, the electoral geography of Britain was so favourable to them that they could have had a tiny majority, even if behind in the overall vote. Since then, this has shifted hugely in the Tories' favour, and the rise of the SNP in Scotland is really only a small part of this - Labour need to achieve a couple of points more in GB 'swing' to make up for no longer being dominant in Scotland. The main reason is that the Conservatives overperformed greatly in the battleground seats, especially in 2015 and 2019.

The previous post-General Election target-leads (per UNS) for a Labour majority are:
2005 -1%
2010 2%
2015 9%
2017 7%
2019 12%

I'd expect this to fall very significantly, if current polling trends are borne out. To acknowledge the views of proper psephologists, we have had Peter Keller saying he now thinks a lead of 8-10% will be needed, John Curtice estimating that around a 7% Lab lead would be enough, and Professor Richard Rose on Electoral Calculus saying that the required Labour lead is around 5%. Electoral Calculus itself shows Labour getting just over the line at around 4.5%, and if a hefty dose of Tactical Voting is applied, this can fall to around 2.5%. I tend to agree with Prof Rose.

Polls currently average around a 19-20% Lab lead, but with the high number of Con2019 voters answering "Don't Know", the 'underlying' lead is more like 15%. I'd expect some further Tory recovery (especially from Reform UK) so would expect the actual result to be around Lab 42%, Con 33%. This might produce a majority of around 80-100.

[expatr]

Aug 2, 2023 20:37:03 GMT James E said:

One point we have not covered is the percentage lead Labour would need to get to 326 seats and an overall majority in the HoC. One oft-quoted figure is 12%, by applying UNS to the GE2019 results. But historically, this is a very variable figure. Back in 2005 when Labour last won, the electoral geography of Britain was so favourable to them that they could have had a tiny majority, even if behind in the overall vote. Since then, this has shifted hugely in the Tories' favour, and the rise of the SNP in Scotland is really only a small part of this - Labour need to achieve a couple of points more in GB 'swing' to make up for no longer being dominant in Scotland. The main reason is that the Conservatives overperformed greatly in the battleground seats, especially in 2015 and 2019.

The previous post-General Election target-leads (per UNS) for a Labour majority are:
2005 -1%
2010 2%
2015 9%
2017 7%
2019 12%

I'd expect this to fall very significantly, if current polling trends are borne out. To acknowledge the views of proper psephologists, we have had Peter Keller saying he now thinks a lead of 8-10% will be needed, John Curtice estimating that around a 7% Lab lead would be enough, and Professor Richard Rose on Electoral Calculus saying that the required Labour lead is around 5%. Electoral Calculus itself shows Labour getting just over the line at around 4.5%, and if a hefty dose of Tactical Voting is applied, this can fall to around 2.5%. I tend to agree with Prof Rose.

Polls currently average around a 19-20% Lab lead, but with the high number of Con2019 voters answering "Don't Know", the 'underlying' lead is more like 15%. I'd expect some further Tory recovery (especially from Reform UK) so would expect the actual result to be around Lab 42%, Con 33%. This might produce a majority of around 80-100.

Thanks

this is really helpful analysis

The only area I would take issue with is the assumption that Reform UK votes will go back to the Tories in large numbers

I'm afraid that sudden switch of 3%ish to them as soon as Sunak became leader is a clear indication of the size of the tribally racist (i.e. will never vote for a "brown" man regardless ) and these guys aren't coming back - they may well of course not vote, but they simply will not vote Tory.

For that reason I can't see the Tories getting above 30% unless there is a return of genuine swing voters.  I think their structural position in terms of demographic of voters is now worse than in 1997.

[leftieliberal]

My wet-finger estimates: I don't expect the Lib Dems to get more than 30 seats; the SNP will probably retain a small majority of Scottish seats, so I'll give them another 30; add 4 for Plaid Cymru; 1 for Green and 18 for the Northern Ireland parties gives a total of 83, leaving 567 to be divided between Tories and Labour. At best I expect the Tories to hold 250; at worst 200, so that gives a range for Labour of 317-367. In practice with Sinn Fein not taking their seats, 317 is almost an overall majority as the SDLP will vote with Labour regardless. Even if Labour don't have an official overall majority there is no conceivable alternative government and the most likely outcome is another election soon (e.g. 1964 & 1966 or February & October 1974).

[birdseye]

Aug 2, 2023 20:37:03 GMT James E said:

One point we have not covered is the percentage lead Labour would need to get to 326 seats and an overall majority in the HoC. One oft-quoted figure is 12%, by applying UNS to the GE2019 results. But historically, this is a very variable figure. Back in 2005 when Labour last won, the electoral geography of Britain was so favourable to them that they could have had a tiny majority, even if behind in the overall vote. Since then, this has shifted hugely in the Tories' favour, and the rise of the SNP in Scotland is really only a small part of this - Labour need to achieve a couple of points more in GB 'swing' to make up for no longer being dominant in Scotland. The main reason is that the Conservatives overperformed greatly in the battleground seats, especially in 2015 and 2019.

The previous post-General Election target-leads (per UNS) for a Labour majority are:
2005 -1%
2010 2%
2015 9%
2017 7%
2019 12%

I'd expect this to fall very significantly, if current polling trends are borne out. To acknowledge the views of proper psephologists, we have had Peter Keller saying he now thinks a lead of 8-10% will be needed, John Curtice estimating that around a 7% Lab lead would be enough, and Professor Richard Rose on Electoral Calculus saying that the required Labour lead is around 5%. Electoral Calculus itself shows Labour getting just over the line at around 4.5%, and if a hefty dose of Tactical Voting is applied, this can fall to around 2.5%. I tend to agree with Prof Rose.

Polls currently average around a 19-20% Lab lead, but with the high number of Con2019 voters answering "Don't Know", the 'underlying' lead is more like 15%. I'd expect some further Tory recovery (especially from Reform UK) so would expect the actual result to be around Lab 42%, Con 33%. This might produce a majority of around 80-100.

Thanks - those numbers are very interesting but the difficult bit is estimating what might happen to public views between now and the election. I cannot recall talking to anyone in recent months who is happy with the state of the country and with its government, yet the circles I move in are undoubtedly mostly traditional Tory voters. I cannot see anything happening between now and election day that might change this situation - all branches of the media are relentlessly negative and in any case a startling change in national fortunes is beyond any short term action.. 

That said, Starmer has not hit the spot as an interesting alternative either so whilst I expect the Labour party to regain the areas it lost in the last election, I still expect the majority of traditional Tory voters to turn out and vote Tory. I dont think that many will either vote Labour or not vote at all. Many will regard it as a civic duty to vote.

My guess would be a Labour majority in the teens or 20s.

[Deleted]

Aug 13, 2023 20:40:08 GMT birdseye said:

Aug 2, 2023 20:37:03 GMT James E said:

Thanks - those numbers are very interesting but the difficult bit is estimating what might happen to public views between now and the election. I cannot recall talking to anyone in recent months who is happy with the state of the country and with its government, yet the circles I move in are undoubtedly mostly traditional Tory voters. I cannot see anything happening between now and election day that might change this situation - all branches of the media are relentlessly negative and in any case a startling change in national fortunes is beyond any short term action.. 

That said, Starmer has not hit the spot as an interesting alternative either so whilst I expect the Labour party to regain the areas it lost in the last election, I still expect the majority of traditional Tory voters to turn out and vote Tory. I dont think that many will either vote Labour or not vote at all. Many will regard it as a civic duty to vote.

My guess would be a Labour majority in the teens or 20s.

I suppose my social contacts are similar. The overwhelming feeling I get from them is that "nothing works anymore".

And I think that has destroyed Sunak's key usp. Truss/Kwarteng destroyed Tory credibility and "making things work" was Sunak's only hope.

Starmer is working very hard to be an credible alternative by avoiding all outward signs of radicalism.  I think that will go a long way in tempting some Con voters.


Whether he can really make anyone believe he will make things work I'm not sure. I honestly feel that many people believe that things have changed fundamentally for the worse. Nationally & Globally.

Whether that translates to a WNV or a Lab vote I haven't a clue.