25 May 2024 : LAB: 44% / CON: 22% / REF 14% / LDM 9%

[neilj]

Jun 14, 2024 12:57:31 GMT steve said:

I think there's a genuine pick up in liberal democrat vote share evident from the most recent polling .
If the Tory regime remains around 20% the possibility of a liberal democrat party as official opposition is growing.

That certainly seems the case in the south.
With many thinking of a Labour victory as a nailed on certainty some are now switching to Libdems to unseat the tories
This could be the final nail in the tory coffin for this election

[patrickbrian]

Steve

Indeed - I was actually thinking of the Sexual offences Act of 1967. "On all of the Bill's stages, most of the votes in favour of it came from Labour and Liberal MPs, while most votes against it came from Conservative MPs;" (Wikipedia)

[alec]

From the Guardian live feed, discussing John Curtice and the exit poll on the night - "Since 2005, the model of exit poll Curtice created with “a very clever statistician called David Firth” has proved impressively accurate, and in the past five general elections the margin of error has ranged between 1.5 and 7.5 seats."

I hadn't realised just what an incredible record of accuracy this poll has achieved. When you think about seat predictions this is amazing.

[peterbell]

Mark61 wrote

"With regards Labour drifting down a point or two, is this a consequence of a boring safety first campaign, or the usual pick up of other smaller progressive parties when they get some media attention, or voters thinking tactically? Probably a combination of all three.

The danger for Labour is if this drift continues the Media and Commentators rather than report upon it start crafting the narrative of a tightening race in the same way as they have focussed on the RefUK/Con crossover since Farage entered the Fray.

Like others I was looking forward to see him under some proper questioning about his support for Trump and love of Putin, if he is simply allowed to appear an a platform like last nights that simply plays to his strengths as others on here point out. It is the Right wing Populist play book lesson one, create a big presence and do everything you can to avoid real scrutiny, Johnson was very good at this even to the extent of hiding in a Fridge. The Fourth Estate let him get away with it and might be about to do the same with Farage."


Mark, Totally agree with you. I know and, to a certain extent, accept that Rayner has been told to play a safe and steady game and this includes not attacking anyone. However, this is just letting Farage get away with murder. I don't understand why Con, LD & Green have given him a free reign.

There may be some political advantage in the short term for Lab & LD, in that, if it reduces the Con vote, then it gives them a better chance of winning seats where Con currently holds the seat. However, in the long term it is likely to be a disaster for both parties and, more mportantly, a disaster for the country if Farage/Reform is allowed to build up their support. Can't believe nobody attacked him re Trump & Putin.

To come back to Farage, last night the only policy that he ranted on about, was to eliminate immigration or to at least eliminate excess immigration (immigration cf emmigration). He did once mention that no one with <£20,000 income should pay tax, but where were the other Reform policies, do they have any, because I am certainly not aware of them apart from support for small businesses. As far as I am aware, no mention of NHS, Care, Cost of living, Education, Growth, Defence etc, etc.

While I worry about what Con would do, particularly if the likes of Braverman, Badenoch ruled the roost, Reform/Farage would be 10 times worse in the long run.

[athena]

patrickbrian
The 1967 Abortion Act was the result of a private member's bill introduced by David Steel (Lib).

Lab's recent record on abortion rights is disappointing. An amendment to the Criminal Justice Act sponsored by Diana Johnson (Lab) fell victim to the election, but didn't have full support amongst the Lab leadership and there's nothing about decriminalising abortion in England and Wales in the manifesto - in fact if Lab's proposals on reform of gender recognition go through, it will be easier to change one's 'legal sex' than to terminate an unwanted pregnancy.

[James E]

Jun 14, 2024 12:51:20 GMT ping said:

They may not have the numbers, but I'd like to see pollsters split their sample into different flavours of constituency (Con/Lab marginals, Con/Lib marginals, safe Labour etc.) and compare the movement from Lab to Lib. If people are only moving from Lab to Lib in Con/Lib marginals then it would actually be a good thing for Labour.

Same goes for movement to Reform. Is this movement geographically spread or is it lumpy?

There is a noticeable effect in YouGov's MRPs (including those done in the early part of this year) that their constituency prompt produces a higher LibDem VI at the expense of Labour. This appears to be due to the LDs taking more votes where respondents are reminded that the LDs are in 2nd place in their constituency. This also explains why YouGov are showing the highest LD VI of any pollster. It is this which produces strong LD performances wherever they were in 2nd place in YouGov's seats predictions. I think this may be a bit overdone: a lot of voters simply aren't aware of the position in their own constituency, and previous elections show that there are different dynamics where the LDs are a distant second to the Conservatives, compared to where they are a close second. In 2019, they managed to squeeze Labour a lot where they were seen as running a close race with the Tories.

As for Reform - their support levels are very closely aligned to those of the Conservatives. So in YouGov's latest poll, the regional figures show them a little ahead of the Tories across most regions, while for R&W (Con 19, Ref 17) most regions have the Tories slightly ahead. You could make a case for saying that Reform are stronger in the East Midlands and North East, based on R&W, and it also appears that they are relatively weaker in London, Scotland and the North West. 

Both YouGov and R&W show Reform as leading the Tories in the Midlands - YouGov by 5 points (24/19) and R&W by 2 points (20.5/18.5), so in each case, 4 points better for them than their headline GB figures. This reflects the Conservatives' losses being worst of all in the Midlands; all pollsters show them losing a greater-than-proportionate amount of their 2019 vote share there.  

[mercian]

Jun 14, 2024 6:11:17 GMT Dave said:

Jun 14, 2024 6:00:37 GMT steve said:

I hope someone gave Daisy earplugs.
View Attachment

I’m biased I know but both parties weren’t equally to blame.

I thought Rayner showed commendable restraint with what she had to cope with. Mordaunt was an incredibly rude, one-message nightmare. Even worse than last week.

Rayner was talked over / shouted down constantly. I doubt it did Mordaunt any favours by the way. It certainly did the ineffective Etchingham none.

Yes, of the current Tories, Mordaunt is one of the ones I like, but as soon as politicians of any party start just shouting each other down it puts me right off them. I'm glad I didn't watch it.

[graham]

Jun 14, 2024 13:25:00 GMT neilj said:

Jun 14, 2024 12:57:31 GMT steve said:

I think there's a genuine pick up in liberal democrat vote share evident from the most recent polling .
If the Tory regime remains around 20% the possibility of a liberal democrat party as official opposition is growing.

That certainly seems the case in the south.
With many thinking of a Labour victory as a nailed on certainty some are now switching to Libdems to unseat the tories
This could be the final nail in the tory coffin for this election

Have you encountered evidence of this? Most polls show them picking up a bit - though not universally so. I think we need another week to see whether this is just a manifesto boost effect.

[leftieliberal]

Jun 14, 2024 13:25:00 GMT neilj said:

Jun 14, 2024 12:57:31 GMT steve said:

I think there's a genuine pick up in liberal democrat vote share evident from the most recent polling .
If the Tory regime remains around 20% the possibility of a liberal democrat party as official opposition is growing.

That certainly seems the case in the south.
With many thinking of a Labour victory as a nailed on certainty some are now switching to Libdems to unseat the tories
This could be the final nail in the tory coffin for this election

Yes, the closer the election seems to be, the more likely we will see tactical voting as in 1997. 

[James E]

Jun 14, 2024 14:13:09 GMT graham said:

Jun 14, 2024 13:25:00 GMT neilj said:

That certainly seems the case in the south.
With many thinking of a Labour victory as a nailed on certainty some are now switching to Libdems to unseat the tories
This could be the final nail in the tory coffin for this election

Have you encountered evidence of this? Most polls show them picing up a bit - though not universally so. I think we need another week to see whether this is just a manifesto boost effect.

I noted yesterday that all five of the most recent polls showed the LDs up on their pre-election vote share (22:29, 13/6/24). The average rise is just over 2 points on a like-with-like comparison.

As for the South of England - YouGov's figures after their change to their 'MRP methodology for all polls' from 1 June show a very significant rise for the LDs there. Part of this is driven by their 'constituency question', which appeared to benefit the LDs by 2 points overall when used in earlier MRPs. I don't have a good like-with-like comparison for this, but the LDs' share in the South has risen from an average of 13.5% in 6 polls immediately prior to the election being called to 21% now. Part of that is due to the changed methodology but at least half of that 7.5% rise is almost certainly 'real' movement. Incidentally, the post-change averages for the South in YouGov's 'adjusted' 4 polls since 1 June are:

Lab 30% (+7)
Con 23% (-32)
LD  21% (+4)
Ref 18% (new)

[to add 15/6/24. I have done a like-for-like comparison of MIC's SE and SW England subsamples. Looks to me like the LD VI is up by 1-2 points in the past couple of polls, compared to their previous average.]

[mercian]

Jun 14, 2024 8:44:49 GMT ping said:

Jun 14, 2024 8:12:32 GMT Danny said:

Woah! He says more than half of voters have yet to finally make up their minds!

This very much tallies with what I've been hearing "on the doorstep". I would say more so than in other elections.

That is also backed up by the local election results where very few show swings to Labour anywhere near what the polls say, and quite a few show small swings to Con. In other words, though Labour are likely to get a very big majority it will be more because of apathy or general disillusion with politics than any great enthusiasm. I have skimmed the Labour manifesto and couldn't spot anything about controlling legal migration to sensible numbers, though I'm open to correction.

[wb61]

I am not sure where the seat prediction thread is and I waited until major manifesto's before predicting:
CON: 93; LAB: 448; LIB: 55; Reform: 5; Green: 3; SNP: 15; Plaid Cymru: 5; SF: 8; DUP: 6; UU: 1; Alliance: 3; Other: 2

[jimjam]

WB, look in specific issues

[graham]

Jun 14, 2024 14:44:19 GMT James E said:

Jun 14, 2024 14:13:09 GMT graham said:

Have you encountered evidence of this? Most polls show them picing up a bit - though not universally so. I think we need another week to see whether this is just a manifesto boost effect.

I noted yesterday that all five of the most recent polls showed the LDs up on their pre-election vote share (22:29, 13/6/24). The average rise is just over 2 points on a like-with-like comparison.

As for the South of England - YouGov's figures after their change to their 'MRP methodology for all polls' from 1 June show a very significant rise for the LDs there. Part of this is driven by their 'constituency question', which appeared to benefit the LDs by 2 points overall when used in earlier MRPs. I don't have a good like-with-like comparison for this, but the LDs' share in the South has risen from an average of 13.5% in 6 polls immediately prior to the election being called to 21% now. Part of that is due to the changed methodology but at least half of that 7.5% rise is almost certainly 'real' movement. Incidentally, the post-change averages for the South in YouGov's 'adjusted' 4 polls since 1 June are:

Lab 30% (+7)
Con 23% (-32)
LD  21% (+4)
Ref 18% (new)

I recall that in 2015 Lord Ashcroft did quite a lot of polling in LD - held seats. These polls also asked probing questions as to how people would vote in those particular constituencies, and the results implied that LD support was likely to hold up much better in many of their own seats than national polling indicated was happening across the country as a whole. Of course, in the event it did not happen.

[steve]

graham
I think there's a genuine pick up in liberal democrat vote share evident from the most recent polling .
If the Tory regime remains around 20% the possibility of a liberal democrat party as official opposition is growing.


"Have you encountered evidence of this? Most polls show them picing up a bit - though not universally so."

Hi Graham

I've been helping out a bit with my friend Sammy's campaign, Hemel isn't anywhere near the list of target seats as despite winning the local election and being surrounded by lib dem parliamentary seats or potential gains it doesn't look very likely. It's been Tory since 2001 and with the exception of 2010 Labour have always come second with the Liberal democrats a distant third.It's also a bit more brexity than neighbouring seats.

It might be my wonderful personality ☺but the response we've been getting on the door steps and town centre is very similar in positivity to that before the locals where we had a historic win.

I suspect Labour remain the best placed to dislodge the Tories but if we're doing well here it bodes well for all the 80+ seats where we are already second to the Tories.

[graham]

Jun 14, 2024 14:54:28 GMT steve said:

graham
I think there's a genuine pick up in liberal democrat vote share evident from the most recent polling .
If the Tory regime remains around 20% the possibility of a liberal democrat party as official opposition is growing.


"Have you encountered evidence of this? Most polls show them picing up a bit - though not universally so."

Hi Graham

I've been helping out a bit with my friend Sammy's campaign, Hemel isn't anywhere near the list of target seats as despite winning the local election and being surrounded by lib dem parliamentary seats or potential gains it doesn't look very likely. It's been Tory since 2001 and with the exception of 2010 Labour have always come second with the Liberal democrats a distant third.It's also a bit more brexity than neighbouring seats.

It might be my wonderful personality ☺but the response we've been getting on the door steps and town centre is very similar in positivity to that before the locals where we had a historic win.

I suspect Labour remain the best placed to dislodge the Tories but if we're doing well here it bodes well for all the 80+ seats where we are already second to the Tories.

Hemel Hempstead was held by Labour 1997 - 2005 and the party is the obvious challenger based on the 2019 and 2017 results.

[alec]

Hmmm...that serious E.Coli outbreak?

Now we know why sandwich maker 'Greencore' chose that particular name.

www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/14/supermarket-sandwich-supplier-greencore-uk-e-coli-outbreak-tesco-asda-sainsburys

Edit: On a more serious note, it appears that the suspect product was a batch of salad leaves. This is not particularly uncommon, but so many people ignore the advice to wash fruit and salad products before consuming.

[mercian]

Jun 14, 2024 10:16:01 GMT @sotonsaint said:

EC's updated seat prediction has the Tories recovering a handful of seats, Labour down a little and Lib Dems strong: CON 80 / LAB 461 / LIB 63 / REF 1 / GRN 2 / SNP 20 / PC 3 / GALLOWAY 1 / CORBYN 1 - www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

UKPR1v2 quite different: LAB 384 / CON 192 / LIB 31 / REF 0 / GRN 1 / SNP 22 / PC 2 however I don't know what dates their data is from and they also predict Corbyn to get <1% so issues there...

Huge differences for the three main UK-wide parties. I wonder if this reflects the general undecidedness detected by Ashcroft, so a lot would depend on what mood your particular panel members were in that day?

[mercian]

Jun 14, 2024 11:04:37 GMT @sotonsaint said:

Jun 14, 2024 8:41:03 GMT neilj said:

I found this interesting from Sunder Katwala

What on earth did the Tories do to Farage as a small boy to make him hate them so much?!

It was Maastricht wot done it.

[leftieliberal]

I thought that for a bit of fun I would look at the betting odds in different constituencies. Paddy Power have a selection including Islington North (Corbyn 2/5, Labour 6/4) and Clacton (Reform 1/6, Conservative 4/1, Labour 8/1)
Electoral Calculus have the probability of Corbyn winning Islington North at 54% and Farage winning Clacton[1] at 72% so not far out taking into consideration the bookies' margin.

[1] EC's prediction for Clacton with the Tories on 11% and Labour on 17% probability, suggests that PP's odds on them should be the other way around.

[steve]

graham
Should have said 2005 not 2001 , I know Labour were in office 1997-2005, I live here, but you don't actually know who the obvious challenger is now based on local response, which was what I was getting at.
As I said I suspect it's still Labour I was addressing the increase support for the lib dems in seats they can realistically win.

[mercian]

Jun 14, 2024 11:20:31 GMT patrickbrian said:

Mercian

"but having lived through every Labour government since Wilson's first administration, I'm not expecting anything good."

Ah, yes, ... and having myself also lived through every labour government since Wilson (and hugely benefitted from Attlee's) I am pretty optimistic!

(from the top of my head: the NHS and welfare state, gay laws , abortion laws, liberalisation, minimum wage, sure start, more money for the arts, cancelling global debt, saving the economy after the banking collapse.... Northern Ireland... etc.... Like to give a list of what the Tories have achieved? Brexit, obviously. Top rates of taxation. Michelle Mone....)

 I could give an equally long list of what I consider to be Tory achievements which you wouldn't agree were achievements, just as I don't consider a lot of your list to be positive achievements. Even the good ones like the NHS and the welfare state have a lot of shortcomings. I will give you the Open University. I think that was a jolly good idea and seems to be working well.

[graham]

Jun 14, 2024 15:24:24 GMT steve said:

graham
Should have said 2005 not 2001 , I know Labour were in office 1997-2005, I live here, but you don't actually know who the obvious challenger is now based on local response, which was what I was getting at.
As I said I suspect it's still Labour I was addressing the increase support for the lib dems in seats they can realistically win.

I sense that Labour is pretty confident re- Hemel Hempstead and working hard in Hitchin. Clearly a serious LD effort in Harpenden & Berkhamsted.

[mercian]

Jun 14, 2024 12:25:25 GMT leftieliberal said:

BMG poll reported in i newspaper
There's a lot about Farage and the Tories in the article, but I'll just quote party VI
Fieldwork 11-12/6/24
Lab 41% (-1)
Con 21% (-2)
Ref 14% (-2)
LD  12% (+3)
Grn 6% (=)
SNP 3% (-1)
Oth 1% (=)
Comparison with 4-5/6/24

So total 6% down and 3% up. Presumably just rounding, but it does seem a big difference. There must be a lot of x.4% numbers in there.

[mercian]

Jun 14, 2024 13:32:00 GMT peterbell said:

Mark61 wrote

To come back to Farage, last night the only policy that he ranted on about, was to eliminate immigration or to at least eliminate excess immigration (immigration cf emmigration). He did once mention that no one with <£20,000 income should pay tax, but where were the other Reform policies, do they have any, because I am certainly not aware of them apart from support for small businesses. As far as I am aware, no mention of NHS, Care, Cost of living, Education, Growth, Defence etc, etc.

assets.nationbuilder.com/reformuk/pages/1083/attachments/original/1712567516/Healthcare_Needs_Reform.pdf?1712567516

[pjw1961]

Jun 14, 2024 7:53:42 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jun 14, 2024 3:09:41 GMT pjw1961 said:

A reminder of why Reform will not replace the Conservatives. The Westminster Tories might currently be in meltdown, but their local government base remains very strong (and doing better than the national party). Reform's is close to non-existent:

GREENWICH Mottingham, Coldharbour and New Eltham (Conservative hold)

TESTER, Roger (Conservative) 1,359 (47.1%) +3.6
THURLOW, Nikki (Labour) 1,101 (38.2%) -5.8
SIMPSON, Mark George (Reform UK) 232 (8.0%) +4.6
STRATFORD, Matt (Green) 101 (3.5%) New
ABBATE, Ulysse Lucien (Liberal Democrat) 90 (3.1%) -6.1

But what you're missing here, as Norbold has cannily observed in Clacton already, is that Farage's likely voters won't be remotely interested in local council by elections. Most voters aren't anyway but Reform's particularly so. They probably swerve most elections, of any sort, but might well get out of bed for the big one on July 4th

Now Nigel's back and leading the Revolt.

I'm talking long term, not 4th July. Reform will not replace the Conservatives in the way Labour did the Liberals. 

[mercian]

pjw1961
Yet. I think Keir Hardie had gone before Labour replaced the Liberals. I agree that at the moment Reform is not much more than a one-man band but if they did win 1 or even 2 or 3 seats, some experienced politicians might join them. Particularly any Tories on the right who lose their seat.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jun 14, 2024 15:53:55 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jun 14, 2024 7:53:42 GMT crossbat11 said:

But what you're missing here, as Norbold has cannily observed in Clacton already, is that Farage's likely voters won't be remotely interested in local council by elections. Most voters aren't anyway but Reform's particularly so. They probably swerve most elections, of any sort, but might well get out of bed for the big one on July 4th

Now Nigel's back and leading the Revolt.

I'm talking long term, not 4th July. Reform will not replace the Conservatives in the way Labour did the Liberals. 

Another possible scenario, is if Farage got elected, then joined the Conservatives and became leader, ROC moderates could defect on mass to the LD's who would then occupy the centre right position. This could lead to a reverse of the 1980's with a split right and Labour holding the LOC. Most likely scenario is after two election defeats the Tories elect a leader who moves them back to the centre.

[pjw1961]

The final local government by-election where we haven't had the full result. Labour have reason for satisfaction with this one re their prospects in the central belt given the Lab/SNP movements:

Clydebank Central- Labour hold

Total votes: 2845
Lab 1391 - 48.9% (+ 9.2)
SNP 1095 - 38.4% (- 14.0)
Con 125 - 4.4% (- 3.5)
Independent/SFP (Muir) 87 - 3.1% (new)
Communist 52 - 1.8% (new)
LD 52 - 1.8% (new)
Sovereignty 12 - 0.4%

Labour elected stage 4

[matt126]

The right wing media/ and some in the Tory Party are now warning of a Labour super majority due to voters voting Reform rather than Tory. I dont understand this strategy as they are doing this while at the same time Giving Reform Uk/ Nigel Farage a lot of coverage boosting them up in the polls. Surely these 2 strategies are contradictory. Why dont the Tories and Media start scrutinising Reform UK more and their policies and vetting of candidates if they want reform voters to switch to Tories.