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Post by mark61 on Jun 14, 2024 11:15:17 GMT
What's with the Polls? You Gov appear now to be somewhat of an outlier that last figure for Labour sending a small shiver down the Back of some of the Labour Leaners on here. Notable also for the Crossover between RefUK and the Cons. Other Pollsters show only slight changes still showing Labour over 40% and a significant lead for Con over RefUK.
For what it's worth I think RefUK won't poll as suggested by YouGov, whilst they have a Committed 6 0r 7% of voters, I think they are fishing in the Pond of people who usually don't bother to vote (Brexit being a Lifetime exception). Added to that they have no ground game, and less money than the big 2. Can Habib win in Wellingborough when he got just 13% in the Feb. By Election? The other given in my Political lifetime is the Stickiness of the Tory vote, although I would never have expected to see it fall below 30% I do this time, but I would not be overly surprised although disappointed if it were in the region of 25-27% on Election day.
With regards Labour drifting down a point or two, is this a consequence of a boring safety first campaign, or the usual pick up of other smaller progressive parties when they get some media attention, or voters thinking tactically? Probably a combination of all three.
The danger for Labour is if this drift continues the Media and Commentators rather than report upon it start crafting the narrative of a tightening race in the same way as they have focussed on the RefUK/Con crossover since Farage entered the Fray.
Like others I was looking forward to see him under some proper questioning about his support for Trump and love of Putin, if he is simply allowed to appear an a platform like last nights that simply plays to his strengths as others on here point out. It is the Right wing Populist play book lesson one, create a big presence and do everything you can to avoid real scrutiny, Johnson was very good at this even to the extent of hiding in a Fridge. The Fourth Estate let him get away with it and might be about to do the same with Farage.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 14, 2024 11:15:17 GMT
Dave In essence, I agree that its beholden on all the mainstream political parties from across the political spectrum, to dismantle Farage's shallow populism but, as I have argued before, I think the most powerful, urgent and likely persuasive argument should come from the mainstream centre right. In many ways, he is their tumour to own and remove. He's a former Tory with designs on his old party.....The problem is that we appear to have no centre right politician of any stature and substance in British politics at the moment. No voice that speaks for mainstream conservatism, in other words. No, i think you are making this a lot more complicated than it is. Brexit was a single issue which took over Uk politics, gathering support from right and left. Part of that was immigration, which remains unresolved, or frankly has become even worse because of Brexit. Farage can stand up and demand the nation be saved from immigration ...because there is a whole lot of immigration happening and its being encouraged by both lab and con. So in calling for a centre right politician to stand up to farage, he would have to make a convincing case to continue immigration. The conservative party has not the slightest intention of standing up for immigration because it knows it would be a fast track to zero votes. And yet it still low profile is pushing as much immigration as it thinks it can get away with. They are rather screwed. Lab is slightly better off, because while it also supports immigration, at least its voters are mostly more positive about it. Although even there the cracks are showing because if you allow immigrants then unless you build them homes, schools, etc, etc, then you are guranteed to be making the general environment worse for all those here originally. And this is probably part of why immigrants in general are dead against more immigration. Heseltine might have been a good speaker and willing to stand up wielding the mace against Farage. But he couldnt win the argument unless he had some sort of policy other than letting in more immigrants. Sure, the antidote to this is building the extra homes, etc, but no party is currently willing to do that either. Anyone trying to counter farage just looks stupid. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 14, 2024 11:15:28 GMT
Some rather shocking news reported by Mark Pack. Fortunately his nomination was rejected because of an error on the nomination paper, but it is concerning that a YouTube prankster can legally change his name to be the same as a well-known politician and attempt to stand against him. Got a feeling the very same stunt was tried many years ago, leftie. In Glasgow Hillhead in effect when a candidate changed their name by deed poll to Roy Jenkins and ran against the real Roy Jenkins Graham and Old Nat; I need your verification! One previous example Mark Pack quotes from his own blog is when someone did it to Ted Heath in the 1970 election. He does also mention Roy Jenkins but without a link. Of course, the worst example was when Adrian Sanders was cheated out of a European Parliament seat in 1994 by a "Literal Democrat", which led to PPERA. |
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Jun 14, 2024 11:20:31 GMT
Mercian
"but having lived through every Labour government since Wilson's first administration, I'm not expecting anything good."
Ah, yes, ... and having myself also lived through every labour government since Wilson (and hugely benefitted from Attlee's) I am pretty optimistic!
(from the top of my head: the NHS and welfare state, gay laws , abortion laws, liberalisation, minimum wage, sure start, more money for the arts, cancelling global debt, saving the economy after the banking collapse.... Northern Ireland... etc.... Like to give a list of what the Tories have achieved? Brexit, obviously. Top rates of taxation. Michelle Mone....)
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 14, 2024 11:22:22 GMT
EC's updated seat prediction has the Tories recovering a handful of seats, Labour down a little and Lib Dems strong: CON 80 / LAB 461 / LIB 63 / REF 1 / GRN 2 / SNP 20 / PC 3 / GALLOWAY 1 / CORBYN 1 - www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html Still all to play for then in who gets second place... |
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Post by alec on Jun 14, 2024 11:27:25 GMT
Looking ahead, I do remember raising the issue of the role of the party leader many moons ago, in relation to how the SNP might fare once Alex Salmond stood down. I thought that the SNP would struggle, but do recall many of the Scottish Contingent on here at the time assuring me that there was a depth of talent within the SNP that most English observers were unfamiliar with, and that the party would survive the stepping down of their iconic leader. They were absolutely right.
The situation with Reform and Nigel Farage is, I suspect, much less healthy in terms of the long term succession. Like it or not, Farage is extremely effective, but also pretty unique. Reform lacks a broad depth and solid internal structure, and once Farage is done with politics, I see little viable future for it at present. I could be wrong, like I was wrong with the SNP back then, but I would tend to think there is a world of difference between the SNP of a decade or so ago and Reform UK today. Perhaps for Conservatives, Farage is a fierce storm that will, in due course, blow itself out?
Or am I missing something?
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jun 14, 2024 11:29:54 GMT
I found this interesting from Sunder Katwala x.com/sundersays/status/1801376427964502135Farage's message (A vote for the Conservatives is now a vote for Labour) could be effective as long as the audience don't think it through * there isn't a single Labour-held seat where Reform have any realistic chance of a gain * there aren't any of Labour's top 140 target Conservative-held seats where Reform have any chance of a gain The one Reform v Labour somewhat competitive contest in this election is in Reform's one seat, which is most likely to be a Labour gain (Lee Anderson's seat) Reform can put Labour in contention in some longshot seats They could come a distant second in lots of Labour-held seats May find it harder to come second in Tory-held seats this time around Reform are trying to get a symbolic Runners-Up Primary on the Right going on General Election day (a battle for overall vote share with the Conservatives. They are unlikely to have much of a challenge to Labour, beyond helping them inadvertently What on earth did the Tories do to Farage as a small boy to make him hate them so much?! Told his parents not to get him Sky TV? |
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 11:34:30 GMT
Some rather shocking news reported by Mark Pack. Fortunately his nomination was rejected because of an error on the nomination paper, but it is concerning that a YouTube prankster can legally change his name to be the same as a well-known politician and attempt to stand against him. This happened to Ted Heath at Bexley in 1970. His majority in 1966 had been just 2,300 so he was at some risk. A guy changed his name to Edward James Robert Lambert Heath and got himself nominated as an Independent Conservative. He polled 938 votes - though Ted Heath's majority increased tp 8,500. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 14, 2024 11:36:44 GMT
Got a feeling the very same stunt was tried many years ago, leftie. In Glasgow Hillhead in effect when a candidate changed their name by deed poll to Roy Jenkins and ran against the real Roy Jenkins Graham and Old Nat; I need your verification! In the 1982 election Roy Harold Jenkins stood against the real Roy Jenkins. The real Roy gave as his Party as SDP; the fake Roy Jenkins gave his party as Social Democrat (1979). (Sorry I'm not Graham or Old Nat.) Will the real Roy Jenkins please stand up. Old Harold used to ask that question quite often in the 1960s and 70s. |
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 11:36:50 GMT
Some rather shocking news reported by Mark Pack. Fortunately his nomination was rejected because of an error on the nomination paper, but it is concerning that a YouTube prankster can legally change his name to be the same as a well-known politician and attempt to stand against him. Got a feeling the very same stunt was tried many years ago, leftie. In Glasgow Hillhead in fact, when a candidate changed their name by deed poll to Roy Jenkins and ran against the real Roy Jenkins Graham and Old Nat; I need your verification! Yes - that did indeed happen at the March 1982 by election. |
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 11:47:17 GMT
I am very critical of the media for having included Farage in the Debates at all - and am surprised that Galloway has not made a big fuss of this. Reform has todate had no MPs elected under its label and has but two councillors. Galloway has a stronger case for inclusion.I think the Broadcasters are at some risk of the major players - particularly the Tories - seeking to make a legal intervention to restrict his coverage.
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Post by ping on Jun 14, 2024 12:06:56 GMT
This very much tallies with what I've been hearing "on the doorstep". I would say more so than in other elections. Beware that I think it is sometimes doorstep code for "I don't really want to talk to you right now and tell you what I really think." Or I don't want to tell a pollster in opinion polls. My sense is that there are always far fewer genuinely undecided voters than we think. Especially this close to polling day No way is it 50% of the electorate anyway. Not in a million years Oh, I agree about it often being code for "I just don't want to tell you". However, in previous elections, I've sensed more hostility (perhaps anti-Labour) from undecideds. This time, I'm getting more anti-government (even anti-politics) vibes and people undecided about which other party to vote for or whether to even vote at all. Huge caveat that I'm canvassing in a different constituency to last time so any differences could be geographic. |
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Post by wb61 on Jun 14, 2024 12:11:22 GMT
Real nerves
"Ask Prof Sir John Curtice, Britain’s most trusted elections guru, about his plans for polling day on 4 July, and the answer is visceral. “From about 11 o’clock in the morning, we’re poring over an exit poll and from about 12 hours later, we’re shitting bricks as to whether it’s right or not,” he said." Guardian
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 14, 2024 12:25:25 GMT
BMG poll reported in i newspaperThere's a lot about Farage and the Tories in the article, but I'll just quote party VI Fieldwork 11-12/6/24 Lab 41% (-1) Con 21% (-2) Ref 14% (-2) LD 12% (+3) Grn 6% (=) SNP 3% (-1) Oth 1% (=) Comparison with 4-5/6/24
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Jun 14, 2024 12:27:35 GMT
Graham
"I am very critical of the media for having included Farage"
Justifiably so, in one way, BUT the media are about entertainment. They have to keep our attention, it's their life blood. In this half dead election they would be bonkers not to include Farage
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 12:34:49 GMT
BMG poll reported in i newspaperThere's a lot about Farage and the Tories in the article, but I'll just quote party VI Fieldwork 11-12/6/24 Lab 41% (-1) Con 21% (-2) Ref 14% (-2) LD 12% (+3) Grn 6% (=) SNP 3% (-1) Oth 1% (=) Comparison with 4-5/6/24 Interesting article but how would the Tories 'do a deal' with Reform? It's too late to pull candidates surely. Also it's far from certain that Reform voters faced with no candidate would vote Tory or vote at all. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jun 14, 2024 12:37:25 GMT
Got a feeling the very same stunt was tried many years ago, leftie. In Glasgow Hillhead in effect when a candidate changed their name by deed poll to Roy Jenkins and ran against the real Roy Jenkins Graham and Old Nat; I need your verification! In the 1982 election Roy Harold Jenkins stood against the real Roy Jenkins. The real Roy gave as his Party as SDP; the fake Roy Jenkins gave his party as Social Democrat (1979). (Sorry I'm not Graham or Old Nat.)
In Scots Law, you can legally change your name to anything you want (as long as it's not for a fraudulent purpose) just by letting people know that that's how you want to be known. There's no need to use the English deed poll mechanism - though UK agencies based in E&W won't recognise your new name.
A guy in our neighbouring wee town changed his name to Tutankhamen West, for some unknown reason. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jun 14, 2024 12:44:20 GMT
Tain and Easter Ross (Highland) by-election 1st prefs (vs Sep 2023 by-election):
Ind (Dundas): 895 (36%, new)
SNP: 630 (25.4%, +6.5)
LD: 621 (25%, +0.5)
Con: 134 (5.4%, -3)
Grn: 89 (3.6%, +1.3)
Ind (Shearer): 89 (3.6%, new)
Libertarian: 25 (1%, +0.1)
Ind Dundas elected stage 7
In the GE, I'd expect a lot of Con supporters will vote LD.
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 12:46:22 GMT
Graham "I am very critical of the media for having included Farage" Justifiably so, in one way, BUT the media are about entertainment. They have to keep our attention, it's their life blood. In this half dead election they would be bonkers not to include Farage Not really the point. During election campaign periods the coverage given to parties is regulated by Ofcom which takes a views as to whether a party should have Major or Minor party status.Parties which have won seats in Parliament in recent years will be labelled Major - other smaller parties will be Minor.It could reasonably be contended that Reform's poll boost owes a great deal to Broadcasters abusing their position here. |
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Jun 14, 2024 12:47:53 GMT
Graham
You have a lovely faith in Ofcom! Hope you're right.
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Post by ping on Jun 14, 2024 12:51:20 GMT
They may not have the numbers, but I'd like to see pollsters split their sample into different flavours of constituency (Con/Lab marginals, Con/Lib marginals, safe Labour etc.) and compare the movement from Lab to Lib. If people are only moving from Lab to Lib in Con/Lib marginals then it would actually be a good thing for Labour.
Same goes for movement to Reform. Is this movement geographically spread or is it lumpy?
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Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 12:51:45 GMT
Graham You have a lovely faith in Ofcom! Hope you're right. Well Ofcom has had a lot of influence in the past as to whether parties are eligible to be included in the Debates! |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 12:54:27 GMT
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Post by jen on Jun 14, 2024 12:54:51 GMT
Graham "I am very critical of the media for having included Farage" Justifiably so, in one way, BUT the media are about entertainment. They have to keep our attention, it's their life blood. In this half dead election they would be bonkers not to include Farage Quite. And the BBC, having built Farage up out of nothing "for entertainment purposes" with public money, would be mad to exclude him from any part of their counter-factual schedule. (But hey, they do good stuff too! In fact they have to broadcast some programming based on facts "in the interest of balance".) |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 14, 2024 12:55:26 GMT
BMG poll reported in i newspaperThere's a lot about Farage and the Tories in the article, but I'll just quote party VI Fieldwork 11-12/6/24 Lab 41% (-1) Con 21% (-2) Ref 14% (-2) LD 12% (+3) Grn 6% (=) SNP 3% (-1) Oth 1% (=) Comparison with 4-5/6/24 Interesting article but how would the Tories 'do a deal' with Reform? It's too late to pull candidates surely. Also it's far from certain that Reform voters faced with no candidate would vote Tory or vote at all. Exactly. What I think they really mean is that the Tories should have done a deal with Reform before calling the election. Once they knew the results of the local elections the writing was on the wall. A more political PM than Sunak might very well have discussed not standing Conservatives in a few seats, in return for Reform standing down in the Conservative seats most under threat, like in 2019 when they didn't run against hardline Tories. It also raises the question whether Johnson should have offered Farage a peerage after 2019 as a means of tying in Reform to the Tories. Of course, because of his majority, maybe he didn't feel he needed to but, if he had given Farage a nod to that effect and then rowed back on it, it would have explained some of his bitterness since. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 14, 2024 12:55:33 GMT
patrickbrianWhile I would mostly agree with your point. I would add that the Gay marriage act was actually passed at lib dem inception in 2013 under the coalition government.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 14, 2024 12:57:31 GMT
I think there's a genuine pick up in liberal democrat vote share evident from the most recent polling .
If the Tory regime remains around 20% the possibility of a liberal democrat party as official opposition is growing.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 14, 2024 13:08:57 GMT
In Scots Law, you can legally change your name to anything you want (as long as it's not for a fraudulent purpose) just by letting people know that that's how you want to be known. Isn't passing yourself off as another person in an election fraudulent? If that person fails to get elected (or re-elected) as a result, surely that is a financial loss to them? |
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Post by jayblanc on Jun 14, 2024 13:21:10 GMT
We've spent a lot of pixels here talking about what happens to the Conservatives if current polling is accurate about their slide towards being a minor parliamentary party...
But what about the Reform Party's assent to being a minor parliamentary party. Reform obviously want to mimic the events in Canada when the Canadian Conservative party collapsed and a right wing Canadian Reform party took it over. I suspect the choice in name was deliberate.
As things currently stand, Reform look able to return a grand total of three seats to Parliament. The problem for them is who those three are. Nigel Farage, Richard Tice and Lee Anderson.
Nigel Farage has the popular perception of being a grifter. Richard Tice is a political non-entity, constantly overshadowed by Farage, unable or unwilling to do much more than be Farage's surrogate. And Lee Anderson is someone who talks themselves into trouble. And I suspect that should Labour pass a ban on MPs holding second jobs, one or all of them would retire rather than be limited to a minority party salary.
While a lot of people, including some inside the Conservative Party, think that Reform taking over the Conservatives would create a revitalised Conservative Party as happened in Canada... I think this is akin to Cargo Cult repetition of actions without understanding the underlying mechanics. At this point in the collapse of the Canadian Conservative party, the Canadian Reform party had already built up a political base of strength in Alberta. They had a much larger "talent" pool of people given direct experience in politics. And even then, they almost fell apart in 2000 when there was an internal split, eventually resulting in the party's original leadership being ousted in a shift to centre right Neo-Liberalism, and the eventual reshaping of the party by Harper allowing a successful merge-and-takeover of the Canadian Conservative party. As Reform UK are a wholly owned corporate interest of Farage, it's unlikely it will ever be allowed to evolve to the point of removing him from leadership.
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Post by RAF on Jun 14, 2024 13:21:26 GMT
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