25 May 2024 : LAB: 44% / CON: 22% / REF 14% / LDM 9%

[steve]

alec

Russian military casualties since the start of war criminal Putin's 10 day special military operation now in day 843 have probably exceeded 500,000 dead or seriously injured.To get that in perspective Russian fatalities now are around three times that suffered by the U.S. in the entire Vietnam war.

[neilj]

I found this interesting from Sunder Katwala
x.com/sundersays/status/1801376427964502135
Farage's message (A vote for the Conservatives is now a vote for Labour) could be effective as long as the audience don't think it through

* there isn't a single Labour-held seat where Reform have any realistic chance of a gain
* there aren't any of Labour's top 140 target Conservative-held seats where Reform have any chance of a gain

The one Reform v Labour somewhat competitive contest in this election is in Reform's one seat, which is most likely to be a Labour gain (Lee Anderson's seat)

Reform can put Labour in contention in some longshot seats

They could come a distant second in lots of Labour-held seats

May find it harder to come second in Tory-held seats this time around

Reform are trying to get a symbolic Runners-Up Primary on the Right going on General Election day (a battle for overall vote share with the Conservatives. They are unlikely to have much of a challenge to Labour, beyond helping them inadvertently

[steve]

All together now.

 "Sharing his lack of Sky T.V"

[ping]

Jun 14, 2024 8:12:32 GMT Danny said:

Woah! He says more than half of voters have yet to finally make up their minds!

This very much tallies with what I've been hearing "on the doorstep". I would say more so than in other elections.

[crossbat11]

Dave

In essence, I agree that its beholden on all the mainstream political parties from across the political spectrum, to dismantle Farage's shallow populism but, as I have argued before, I think the most powerful, urgent and likely persuasive argument should come from the mainstream centre right. In many ways, he is their tumour to own and remove. He's a former Tory with designs on his old party.

Mordaunt last night, shamefully I thought, tried to suggest she had common values with Farage and his problem wasn't what he believed in but merely the indirect electoral assistance he gave Labour. This is the dangerous accommodation of the populist right we see in many continental European countries and it only bolsters them and encourages them.

The problem is that we appear to have no centre right politician of any stature and substance in British politics at the moment. No voice that speaks for mainstream conservatism, in other words.

I'd love to see what Michael Heseltine in his pomp would have made of Nigel Farage. I expect he would have had him for breakfast and that the British public would have enjoyed the spectacle.

Labour and the Left attacks on Faragism, on the other hand, could be brushed away under the heading; "they would say that about us wouldn't they".

[shevii]

Jun 14, 2024 8:18:12 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jun 14, 2024 7:45:51 GMT shevii said:

we used to have someone on here who did the churn for the 2015 election and she had that kind of stuff at the tip of her fingers

Spearmint?!!

Yes- whatever happened to Spearmint?  Also very sorry not to see Davwell on these boards for a long time as one of the less political but more interesting posters and I believe from his anecdotes he must have been getting on a bit (like we all are but maybe more so).

[crossbat11]

Jun 14, 2024 8:45:58 GMT shevii said:

Jun 14, 2024 8:18:12 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Spearmint?!!

Yes- whatever happened to Spearmint?  Also very sorry not to see Davwell on these boards for a long time as one of the less political but more interesting posters and I believe from his anecdotes he must have been getting on a bit (like we all are but maybe more so).

Wrigleys could be a good name for a new centrist political party too.

[crossbat11]

Jun 14, 2024 8:44:49 GMT ping said:

Jun 14, 2024 8:12:32 GMT Danny said:

Woah! He says more than half of voters have yet to finally make up their minds!

This very much tallies with what I've been hearing "on the doorstep". I would say more so than in other elections.

Beware that I think it is sometimes doorstep code for "I don't really want to talk to you right now and tell you what I really think."

Or I don't want to tell a pollster in opinion polls.

My sense is that there are always far fewer genuinely undecided voters than we think. Especially this close to polling day

No way is it 50% of the electorate anyway. Not in a million years

[Lakeland Lass]

Jun 14, 2024 7:35:04 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jun 14, 2024 6:56:02 GMT thylacine said:

But my "winner" was Farage again. Never lost his temper, even under fire, rode the audience ridicule at times, and hammered his merry way at the people he was really talking to. Right wing former Tory voters. I thought he got the night's zingers in too. On the basis of the latest poll putting Reform second to Labour and ahead of the Tories, his "Vote Tory get Labour" comment in retort to Mordaunt's attempt to say the opposite, was the soundbite of the evening. Nonsense, of course, like nearly everything he says, but effective codswallop in terms of bolstering his fan club.

Join the Revolt too. It really is no good throwing milk shakes at him, nor calling him silly names, he's a very very effective population. Nobody is really taking him on either and he's enjoying the free ride.

Mainstream conservatism appears to be saying; "I agree with Nigel."

Dear oh dear.

I've just listened to the news on BBC radio 6. The entire election report consisted of :-

" In a debate last night politicians clashed over tax, immigration and the NHS. meanwhile Nigel Farrage highlighted a poll which put him in second place and claimed he was now the only opposition to Labour "

The news media's fascination with pound shop fascism continues unabated.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 14, 2024 8:45:58 GMT shevii said:

Jun 14, 2024 8:18:12 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Spearmint?!!

Yes- whatever happened to Spearmint?  Also very sorry not to see Davwell on these boards for a long time as one of the less political but more interesting posters and I believe from his anecdotes he must have been getting on a bit (like we all are but maybe more so).

We lost her circa the 2015 election Shev.. We lost a lot of people after that election, including quite a few of the ladeez - amber too, for example. I think quite a lot of people took it quite badly, esp. as it seemed at one point that Labour were going to do quite well. The Brexit ref. result perhaps saw another tranche give up (in fact I had the feeling AW kinda started losing interest after that, he seemed more of a one nation remainer type). 

yes I miss davwell’s posts too, and he was good on conservation for example. Hope he’s ok

[shevii]

"Neck and neck" in Islington North according to the man himself:

uk.news.yahoo.com/corbyn-neck-neck-labour-islington-084616881.html

Rather like the vox pops, it's hard to read very much into a call out for volunteers as there's always a reason for calling it neck and neck for the GOTV (and in this case the additional canvassers). I'm surprised it might be that close which doesn't bode well for other independents with less resources. Looks like Stats for lefties is going to get close to his £7k for a constituency poll- the more I think about this, the more I think it's a waste of money and while that type of fundraising might attract people not donating direct to Corbyn's campaign (and in SFL's case people not donating to the Greens) it doesn't seem money well spent. Plus if you are supporting the man then you'd have to ask if a poll would help or hinder his campaign and either confirming winning or losing may not do him much good. Different if there was a LD type squeeze and they needed people to know it was a two horse race.

The articles that do interest me are where someone has information about where Labour are sending resources and urging activists to go. The Guardian had one a couple of days ago but I can only remember Bristol Central as the one they quoted as activists asked to stay put. Even then you can't be sure if this is just precautionary or a real threat.

[RAF]

Jun 14, 2024 9:11:15 GMT shevii said:

"Neck and neck" in Islington North according to the man himself:

uk.news.yahoo.com/corbyn-neck-neck-labour-islington-084616881.html

Rather like the vox pops, it's hard to read very much into a call out for volunteers as there's always a reason for calling it neck and neck for the GOTV (and in this case the additional canvassers). I'm surprised it might be that close which doesn't bode well for other independents with less resources. Looks like Stats for lefties is going to get close to his £7k for a constituency poll- the more I think about this, the more I think it's a waste of money and while that type of fundraising might attract people not donating direct to Corbyn's campaign (and in SFL's case people not donating to the Greens) it doesn't seem money well spent. Plus if you are supporting the man then you'd have to ask if a poll would help or hinder his campaign and either confirming winning or losing may not do him much good. Different if there was a LD type squeeze and they needed people to know it was a two horse race.

The articles that do interest me are where someone has information about where Labour are sending resources and urging activists to go. The Guardian had one a couple of days ago but I can only remember Bristol Central as the one they quoted as activists asked to stay put. Even then you can't be sure if this is just precautionary or a real threat.

What strikes me from the piece is that the Labour candidate has been out canvassing with an 82 year old Lord Kinnock! No love lost between the old Labour warriors.

[patrickbrian]

Many thanks to the posters here who explain about how methodology affects polls. I wish I understood it better! But a quick and very superficial look at the Yougov poll helpfully posted by Mark at the beginning of this thread, with all the caveats about moe and methodology changes, would seem to suggest significant shift on the one hand from Con to Refuk, but equally strongly from Lab to Lib Dem and Green. The Lab /Con lead has fallen, but surely not good news for the Tories? Is this right? Any guesses why?
May 25th
lab: 44% (-2)
Con: 22% (+1)
Reform UK: 14% (+2)
Lib Dem: 9% (nc)
Green: 6% (-1)

June 13th
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Con: 18% (nc)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7 (-1)

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 14, 2024 8:57:12 GMT Lakeland Lass said:

Jun 14, 2024 7:35:04 GMT crossbat11 said:

But my "winner" was Farage again. Never lost his temper, even under fire, rode the audience ridicule at times, and hammered his merry way at the people he was really talking to. Right wing former Tory voters. I thought he got the night's zingers in too. On the basis of the latest poll putting Reform second to Labour and ahead of the Tories, his "Vote Tory get Labour" comment in retort to Mordaunt's attempt to say the opposite, was the soundbite of the evening. Nonsense, of course, like nearly everything he says, but effective codswallop in terms of bolstering his fan club.

Join the Revolt too. It really is no good throwing milk shakes at him, nor calling him silly names, he's a very very effective population. Nobody is really taking him on either and he's enjoying the free ride.

Mainstream conservatism appears to be saying; "I agree with Nigel."

Dear oh dear.

I've just listened to the news on BBC radio 6. The entire election report consisted of :-

" In a debate last night politicians clashed over tax, immigration and the NHS. meanwhile Nigel Farrage highlighted a poll which put him in second place and claimed he was now the only opposition to Labour "

The news media's fascination with pound shop fascism continues unabated.

maybe some of them are just determined to see the Tories crushed, seeing Reform as a vehicle to that end, and don’t worry as much about Reform because they don’t think they’ll get many seats? (Although perhaps not a strategy entirely without risk?…)

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Well it looks like the Tory tactics are to drag Labour down to their level - play on the 'they are all the same' and hope Labour's electoral coalition starts to fracture the way theirs has. Labours' lacklustre cautious campaign plays into this, as does narratives from other LOC parties that Labour's inevitable victory means you can afford not to vote for them. So I doubt Reform will get more votes than the Tories come election day, what we are witnessing seems more akin to Cleggomania, Farage making out he's different to the Westminster establishment parties. But his party doesn't have the infrastructure in place, and he his loathed by most voters. Rather surprisingly, I have spoken to a number of Labour voters I know who would be prepared to vote Tory to prevent Farage getting elected. I really can't see Reform getting many seats.

[jimjam]

Patrick,

James E has explained that the YG at the top of the thread was on the old methodology and a more meaningful comparison is Labour VI dropping from 41/40 to 37/8 (last 2 YG Polls).

Or if the old methodology is applied from 44 to 40/1.

So Labour down 3-4% which seems to be a mix, some drift to GRN, some to LD and a little direct to Ref plus a tad to Cons but they lost more the other side so to speak.


As above, this was always expected but has occurred a little earlier than I thought it would so could be some more.

I expect there is a little MOE going on and Labour are currently closer to 40 than 37% but could be wrong.

A fellow activist told me yesterday they think Labour could be as low as 36% in the end and has done for some time, I think this is pessimistic but possible.



NB) The Ref was not expected at least not by me!.

[shevii]

Have we done this one? Same story anyway:

Techne UK
@techneuk
·
41m
📊 NEW POLL RESULTS: LABOUR AND CONSERVATIVES DROP, LIB DEMS AND REFORM UK RISE

Lab 43% (-1)
Cons 19% (-1)
Lib Dems 11% (+1)
Reform 16% (+1)
Greens 6% (=)
SNP 2% (=)
Others 3% (=)

[mercian]

Jun 13, 2024 23:40:23 GMT jen said:

Jun 13, 2024 23:19:11 GMT mercian said:

oldnat
She just knows her history. When I thought about it, I could see the similarities. Although the punishments are likely to be less harsh, the Witchfinder General was equivalent to the modern thought police, though of course they have flourished under the Tories too.

EDIT: jen see above

I am no fan of Labour, but "thought police"? Seriously?

Surely it's the right-wing parties that want to end the right to protest? Or the right to a fair trial?

Well it was more about the general sense of doom and destruction of all fun and tradition rather than specific policies, though on that particular subject as I said, the Tories are about as bad. So-called 'hate crimes' when someone says the wrong thing to the wrong person are pretty reminiscent of Cromwell's time. We'll see how it turns out, but having lived through every Labour government since Wilson's first administration, I'm not expecting anything good.

[Mark]

*** ADMIN ***

20 days still to go....and with one YG poll showing Reform pipping the Tories into second place...and other polls showing the gap between them closing, I am now minded to start a new polling thread this weekend, headed by a future (Saturday?) poll.

Then (as I had always planned) a final pre-election polling thread on July 1st.

So, three instead of the planned two.

[Deleted]

EC's updated seat prediction has the Tories recovering a handful of seats, Labour down a little and Lib Dems strong: CON 80 / LAB 461 / LIB 63 / REF 1 / GRN 2 / SNP 20 / PC 3 / GALLOWAY 1 / CORBYN 1 - www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

UKPR1v2 quite different: LAB 384 / CON 192 / LIB 31 / REF 0 / GRN 1 / SNP 22 / PC 2 however I don't know what dates their data is from and they also predict Corbyn to get <1% so issues there...

[shevii]

Jun 14, 2024 10:16:01 GMT @sotonsaint said:

EC's updated seat prediction has the Tories recovering a handful of seats, Labour down a little and Lib Dems strong: CON 80 / LAB 461 / LIB 63 / REF 1 / GRN 2 / SNP 20 / PC 3 / GALLOWAY 1 / CORBYN 1 - www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

UKPR1v2 quite different: LAB 384 / CON 192 / LIB 31 / REF 0 / GRN 1 / SNP 22 / PC 2 however I don't know what dates their data is from and they also predict Corbyn to get <1% so issues there...

Galloway- really?  I suppose with the rise in Reform that becomes a possibility and presumably Reform have picked a better candidate than last time- still a bit of a stretch though.  We simply have to assume the MRPs and projections are not capable of catching a handful of seats where independents may have a strong presence.

[Deleted]

Jun 14, 2024 10:25:46 GMT shevii said:

Galloway- really?  I suppose with the rise in Reform that becomes a possibility and presumably Reform have picked a better candidate than last time- still a bit of a stretch though.  We simply have to assume the MRPs and projections are not capable of catching a handful of seats where independents may have a strong presence.

It's strange because the EC data for Rochdale shows LAB ahead, yet their headline says MIN win.

[leftieliberal]

Some rather shocking news reported by Mark Pack.
Fortunately his nomination was rejected because of an error on the nomination paper, but it is concerning that a YouTube prankster can legally change his name to be the same as a well-known politician and attempt to stand against him. 

[Old Southendian]

Jun 13, 2024 23:11:56 GMT robbiealive said:

Im not sure if Old Southendian refers to your school or you live in Southend.
I hv only been there once when I returned from France on a ferry in the fog aged 15 with a friend I had hitchhiked with. A young drunk guy on the ferry offered us a lift in a Ford Popular he had parked there.
He drove round town siphoning petrol until he was gassed up (the fog helped). 
A while later I had to tell him we were driving up the A12 dual carriage way on the wrong carriage way against the traffic, as he seemed oblivious of the the horns & people swerving around us. Drunks were always a problem hitchhiking. No one does it any more. 
I have never been back. 

To clarify, it refers to my school.  I suppose I intended it as a rather downmarket equivalent to all our political old-Etonians.  Though my dad steadfastly still lives in the area (Mark Francois-land, as I recently said), so I still visit, I wouldn't go near for any other reason.  Essex is not all bad, but the Thames Estuary is not its best aspect.

[Lakeland Lass]

Jun 14, 2024 9:51:17 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Well it looks like the Tory tactics are to drag Labour down to their level - play on the 'they are all the same' and hope Labour's electoral coalition starts to fracture the way theirs has. Labours' lacklustre cautious campaign plays into this, as does narratives from other LOC parties that Labour's inevitable victory means you can afford not to vote for them. So I doubt Reform will get more votes than the Tories come election day, what we are witnessing seems more akin to Cleggomania, Farage making out he's different to the Westminster establishment parties. But his party doesn't have the infrastructure in place, and he his loathed by most voters. Rather surprisingly, I have spoken to a number of Labour voters I know who would be prepared to vote Tory to prevent Farage getting elected. I really can't see Reform getting many seats.

I think it's a mistake to see it in terms of seat numbers, I don't think Farage is remotely interested in participating in the parliamentary process .. famously as an MEP he hardly ever bothered to visit Strasbourg.

If he wins in Clacton, in the context of a much diminished Conservative Party which moves even further to the right, then even if he is the only Reform MP, the news media will promote him to de facto Leader of the Opposition and breathlessly follow his every move in the same way the US media follow Trump.

Edit ..  This is already happening to some extent now. Just listened to another BBC radio news report which had a brief reported quote from Sunak saying something about chasing every vote, followed by a longer direct sound bite of Farage in his own words saying they were now the opposition.

[jen]

Jun 14, 2024 10:09:31 GMT mercian said:

Jun 13, 2024 23:40:23 GMT jen said:

I am no fan of Labour, but "thought police"? Seriously?

Surely it's the right-wing parties that want to end the right to protest? Or the right to a fair trial?

Well it was more about the general sense of doom and destruction of all fun and tradition rather than specific policies, though on that particular subject as I said, the Tories are about as bad. So-called 'hate crimes' when someone says the wrong thing to the wrong person are pretty reminiscent of Cromwell's time. We'll see how it turns out, but having lived through every Labour government since Wilson's first administration, I'm not expecting anything good.

Ah yes, that age-old tradition of fomenting hatred against groups that are perceived as "different". Yes, I can see that any moves against that would spoil some people's "fun". Fair enough!

[crossbat11]

Jun 14, 2024 10:42:50 GMT leftieliberal said:

Some rather shocking news reported by Mark Pack.
Fortunately his nomination was rejected because of an error on the nomination paper, but it is concerning that a YouTube prankster can legally change his name to be the same as a well-known politician and attempt to stand against him. 

Got a feeling the very same stunt was tried many years ago, leftie. In Glasgow Hillhead in fact, when a candidate changed their name by deed poll to Roy Jenkins and ran against the real Roy Jenkins

Graham and Old Nat; I need your verification!

[Danny]

Jun 14, 2024 8:34:13 GMT steve said:

alec

Russian military casualties since the start of war criminal Putin's 10 day special military operation now in day 843 have probably exceeded 500,000 dead or seriously injured.To get that in perspective Russian fatalities now are around three times that suffered by the U.S. in the entire Vietnam war.

But Russia really doesnt care so long as it doesnt actually run out. And it isnt as if they are actual ethnic Russians, most of them.

[Deleted]

Jun 14, 2024 8:41:03 GMT neilj said:

I found this interesting from Sunder Katwala
x.com/sundersays/status/1801376427964502135
Farage's message (A vote for the Conservatives is now a vote for Labour) could be effective as long as the audience don't think it through

* there isn't a single Labour-held seat where Reform have any realistic chance of a gain
* there aren't any of Labour's top 140 target Conservative-held seats where Reform have any chance of a gain

The one Reform v Labour somewhat competitive contest in this election is in Reform's one seat, which is most likely to be a Labour gain (Lee Anderson's seat)

Reform can put Labour in contention in some longshot seats

They could come a distant second in lots of Labour-held seats

May find it harder to come second in Tory-held seats this time around

Reform are trying to get a symbolic Runners-Up Primary on the Right going on General Election day (a battle for overall vote share with the Conservatives. They are unlikely to have much of a challenge to Labour, beyond helping them inadvertently

What on earth did the Tories do to Farage as a small boy to make him hate them so much?!

[norbold]

Jun 14, 2024 10:58:31 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jun 14, 2024 10:42:50 GMT leftieliberal said:

Some rather shocking news reported by Mark Pack.
Fortunately his nomination was rejected because of an error on the nomination paper, but it is concerning that a YouTube prankster can legally change his name to be the same as a well-known politician and attempt to stand against him. 

Got a feeling the very same stunt was tried many years ago, leftie. In Glasgow Hillhead in effect when a candidate changed their name by deed poll to Roy Jenkins and ran against the real Roy Jenkins

Graham and Old Nat; I need your verification!

In the 1982 election Roy Harold Jenkins stood against the real Roy Jenkins. The real Roy gave as his Party as SDP; the fake Roy Jenkins gave his party as Social Democrat (1979). (Sorry I'm not Graham or Old Nat.)