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Post by graham on May 27, 2024 10:06:26 GMT
In Islington North I see the bookies now have Corbyn at 7/2 on - ie he has a 78% chance of winning.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 27, 2024 10:08:54 GMT
Labour concentrating on votes for 16 and 17 year olds, breakfast clubs, funding state schools through VAT on private schools About that...I saw con challenge that there would even be a net financial gain form taxing schools, if the consequence was people returning to state education. I dont think this one is a vote winner, Blair avoided it. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 27, 2024 10:15:55 GMT
View Attachment"Recall petitions are absurd, because if we held one in every constituency the day after the general election, almost all MPs would be thrown out....because a majority of the voters oppose them." Derr that's not how recall petitions work Fair dos, it is much worse than I describe. Only 10% of voters have to oppose the MP for them to be thrown out and a new election held. It seems very likely all constituencies would never return an MP at all if there was a requiremnt less than 10% may oppose their appointment. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 27, 2024 10:22:32 GMT
As I had expected and forecast the Tories are making no attempt to widen their popularity base. Instead, by concentrating even more on issues that garner barking mad Daily Express banner headlines of support and ridicule elsewhere they are reducing it further. Which suits most of us fine. The odd thing is that they really don’t understand the make up of the country that they have governed for the past fourteen years. We are nothing like they seem to imagine. I can’t see where they are going to make a comeback after the election because their core membership is from a completely different world to the hugely varied population that they are just a small, declining part of. If they think Suella Braverman is the answer then they are well and truly stuffed. Self delusion is a wonderful thing. A number on here seem to think I am totally deluded in pointing out the case how covid arrived in the UK in 2019 - unnoticed. That a group of politicians could become self deluding when they have perhaps 20% of the nation thinking the same as themselves, after purging their party of anyone who disagreed or refused to accept their interpretation, well that is not very difficult to believe.
But I made a long post earlier arguing that while what they are choosing to talk about may seem delusional to many, it may still be the best option of what to talk about given disasters in so many areas.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 27, 2024 10:23:49 GMT
I'll be straight on the phone tomorrow to volunteer as a dog. More generally , what happens if people are coerced to turn up for National Service simply refuse to co-operate with those appointed to manage them? They could deliberately seek to ignore the instructions, rules and regulations issued to them - effectively become proactive in seeking to bugger things up! I think that is far, far more likely today than when national service was abolished. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 10:24:36 GMT
I'll be straight on the phone tomorrow to volunteer as a dog. More generally , what happens if people are coerced to turn up for National Service simply refuse to co-operate with those appointed to manage them? They could deliberately seek to ignore the instructions, rules and regulations issued to them - effectively become proactive in seeking to bugger things up! I know what I would do. I would tell them to go home, never come back and I would sign them in as having attended. Much easier for both me and them. Idiotic ideas deserve that sort of response. |
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Post by johntel on May 27, 2024 10:27:18 GMT
"Doing the Tennis Club accounts" Well we do need to find ways to supplement our meagre pensions...  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 10:29:00 GMT
"The Conservative party is very active in terms of rebuttal at the moment and clever rebuttal – pointing out flaws in what your opponents have said – can make a big difference in a campaign.
But 90% of CCHQ rebuttal at the moment just consists of the same empty slogans. Frankly, they sound like the pub bore.
For the record, this is what they have sent out to journalists in response to the Keir Starmer speech. It’s a statement from Richard Holden, the Tory chair.
Once again Keir Starmer stood up to tell the country absolutely nothing. In this wearisome and rambling speech there was no policy, no substance, and no plan.
The question remains: will Starmer ever find the courage and conviction to tell us what he would do, or does he simply not know?
The choice is clear: stick with the plan that is working and take bold action for a safer, more secure future with Rishi Sunak or go back to square one with Labour."
The Conservatives know full well that Labour do have plans; they published a detailed document less then two weeks ago costing them.
Richard Holden putting the " 'ard" in Dullard
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Post by johntel on May 27, 2024 10:31:40 GMT
When I was 17 I volunteered my services to a delightful woman who was somewhat older than me. These were politely declined, but I officially registered the several hours of time I put into it all. No Duke of Edinburgh's award was forthcoming, sadly Surely a Duke of York award would have been more appropriate? |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 10:31:44 GMT
In Islington North I see the bookies now have Corbyn at 7/2 on - ie he has a 78% chance of winning. Corbyn may indeed have a good chance of winning, but you won't find out from betting odds. All that means that people are betting on it and the bookies are setting the odds accordingly. These punters possess no special insight. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 27, 2024 10:36:11 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 10:36:31 GMT
Paul, I thought the whole speech was excelllent. How anyone could vote for Sunak rather than Starmer is unbelievable. WE now have a prospective PM who is serious and thinks things through carefully, not a charismatic corrupt fool like Boris or an insignificant little boy who can only play to his extremists like Sunnak or an idiot like Truss. Whisper it quietly, but Starmer seems to be getting the hang of this politics lark. That was a competent, even confident, performance. He won't go far wrong if he keeps up that level of engagement. |
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Post by Rafwan on May 27, 2024 10:36:38 GMT
I volunteer on a political messageboard, giving the elderly retirees someone to chat to, keep them up to speed with the modern world, post youtube clips for them, listen to their stories about times past etc.. It hasn’t done me any harm (well apart from all the CPTSD, obvs.) … and we really do appreciate it, carfrew, for some of us it is a real lifeline. Heartfelt thanks! |
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Post by graham on May 27, 2024 10:39:33 GMT
In Islington North I see the bookies now have Corbyn at 7/2 on - ie he has a 78% chance of winning. Corbyn may indeed have a good chance of winning, but you won't find out from betting odds. All that means that people are betting on it and the bookies are setting the odds accordingly. These punters possess no special insight. I don't disagree, but -given this is a very safe Labour seat - there must be some evidence on the ground to make bookies offer these odds so early on.I am not the least bit surprised but a number of comments have cast serious doubt on Corbyn's prospects as an Independent. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 10:45:31 GMT
I thought Starmer was very sound during today's speech and press conference.
The usual vanilla in the speech but Starmer was prepared to take and answer press questions from across the media including Gbeebies and the Daily Express.
Which juxtaposes with Sunakered carefully selected audiences.
It wasn't particularly exciting but was a massive improvement on crazytown.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 10:47:07 GMT
graham Bookies odds are based on the bets placed, they don't have any hidden insights.
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Post by guymonde on May 27, 2024 10:49:06 GMT
Paul, I thought the whole speech was excelllent. How anyone could vote for Sunak rather than Starmer is unbelievable. WE now have a prospective PM who is serious and thinks things through carefully, not a charismatic corrupt fool like Boris or an insignificant little boy who can only play to his extremists like Sunnak or an idiot like Truss. typical tory view |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 10:49:42 GMT
Victoria Derbyshire: "What do you want to do if you're not an MP?" Steve Baker, without a moment's hesitation: "Skydiving, motorcycling, fast catamaran racing..." Sounded like he couldn't wait. What a selfless chap, embodying the very essence of public service. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 27, 2024 10:49:45 GMT
Labour concentrating on votes for 16 and 17 year olds, breakfast clubs, funding state schools through VAT on private schools About that...I saw con challenge that there would even be a net financial gain form taxing schools, if the consequence was people returning to state education. I dont think this one is a vote winner, Blair avoided it. My daughter did an essay a couple of months ago for her final year accountancy and finance exam on that very subject, reviewing all the papers and evidence. The consensus seemed to be there would be a net tax gain and that the shift over to state education, while it would be threatened by many, would likely happen only in a small proportion of cases (based on previous behaviours with similar tax changes - eg all the rich people will move away from scotland if the higher tax rate is moved up 2p at the top band) . More importantly, the net tx gain would not be significant compared to the funding gap generally. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 10:52:30 GMT
Paul, I thought the whole speech was excelllent. How anyone could vote for Sunak rather than Starmer is unbelievable. WE now have a prospective PM who is serious and thinks things through carefully, not a charismatic corrupt fool like Boris or an insignificant little boy who can only play to his extremists like Sunnak or an idiot like Truss. I will check it all through later Peter - thanks. I’m still struggling for concentration as I feel quite exhausted after my Norovirus experience. Paul |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 10:54:26 GMT
"Fair dos, it is much worse than I describe. Only 10% of voters have to oppose the MP for them to be thrown out and a new election held"
Wrong again first the recall petition has to be triggered by an mp being suspended from parliament for the appropriate time ten days or if criminally convicted and incarcerated , then a recall petition may be triggered and If 10% of constituents vote in it to trigger a by election there's a by election.
The seat then becomes vacant pending a by election.
The incumbent mp is perfectly entitled unless criminally sanctioned to stand in the by election if they win they stay the mp.
There is no way that a recall petition could be held the day after an election.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 10:55:47 GMT
Corbyn may indeed have a good chance of winning, but you won't find out from betting odds. All that means that people are betting on it and the bookies are setting the odds accordingly. These punters possess no special insight. I don't disagree, but -given this is a very safe Labour seat - there must be some evidence on the ground to make bookies offer these odds so early on.I am not the least bit surprised but a number of comments have cast serious doubt on Corbyn's prospects as an Independent. Highly unlikely that many punters are aware of "evidence on the ground". Even for those actually in Islington the campaign is only a few days old. A more probable explanation is that Jeremy Corbyn retains a sizable fan club and some are betting on him for reasons of sentiment. Add in another group who are looking for what they hope is an outside bet and you will soon have the bookies reducing the odds. It means nothing. Now some actual polling in Islington North, that would be a different matter. |
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Post by chrisc on May 27, 2024 10:57:23 GMT
In Islington North I see the bookies now have Corbyn at 7/2 on - ie he has a 78% chance of winning. I would be gobsmacked if he doesn’t win. These are the kind of one off results that always appear at a General Election. Dick Taverne, Kidderminster Hospital, Martin Bell, George Galloway etc. The fact that he doesn’t have a swathe of candidates running supporting him in other constituencies is what makes it a pretty irrelevant event. But I do admire that, unlike the coward Farage , he’s happy to stand for election. And that he is also happy being expelled from the Labour Party for standing up for what he believes in. On other news I saw my first Labour Party MP canvasser in my life the other day. A lovely set of people, full of the joys of spring (at least it wasn't raining). Still good luck overturning Bernard Jenkin’s huge majority I thought. Then I went on the various MMP sites and realised that with boundary changes Harwich and North Essex is now a marginal constituency with Labour favoured. Happy days (maybe). I look forward to seeing Bernard Jenkin canvassing as I’m not sure he’s had to do a lot in previous years. Apart from his blinkered IMHO - if consistent - anti EU views, he was at least from the non loony side of the Tory party. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 10:58:58 GMT
"I volunteer on a political messageboard, giving the elderly retirees someone to chat to, keep them up to speed with the modern world, post youtube clips for them, listen to their stories about times past etc.. It hasn’t done me any harm (well apart from all the CPTSD, obvs.)"
Sounds great where can I sign up?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 27, 2024 11:03:03 GMT
I volunteer down my local pub giving convivial company to the bunch of old folks there
No don't thank me, I consider it my civic duty
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 11:04:12 GMT
"I volunteer on a political messageboard, giving the elderly retirees someone to chat to, keep them up to speed with the modern world, post youtube clips for them, listen to their stories about times past etc.. It hasn’t done me any harm (well apart from all the CPTSD, obvs.)" Sounds great where can I sign up? No need. Any ole rabble is welcome. (Apparently) |
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Post by athena on May 27, 2024 11:06:34 GMT
Paul, I thought the whole speech was excelllent. How anyone could vote for Sunak rather than Starmer is unbelievable. WE now have a prospective PM who is serious and thinks things through carefully, not a charismatic corrupt fool like Boris or an insignificant little boy who can only play to his extremists like Sunnak or an idiot like Truss. Whisper it quietly, but Starmer seems to be getting the hang of this politics lark. That was a competent, even confident, performance. He won't go far wrong if he keeps up that level of engagement. How much attention are typical mind-not-yet-made-up voters paying to all this? Will they have heard any of these speeches? I doubt they're as enthusiastic as the UKPR2 readership about a six-week election campaign during which politicians fall over each other to make not-quite-promises and dodge questions.
All that'll count are the 20s clips that make it into the headlines and onto social media. They're all I've ever heard of Sunak and Starmer and I wouldn't pick either of them as a party leader on the basis of them. Starmer sounds nasal, earnest and slightly tentative; Sunak sounds bland and somewhat defensive. I don't think I've ever heard any of the other leaders. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 11:08:38 GMT
As I may have mentioned previously I volunteer to sit down on a comfy sofa and enjoy a latte and cake at the local bookshop/cafe. I even make a small donation to their running costs.
I also do a considerable amount of voluntary guitar practice when I’m not feeling sick.
Busy, busy, busy.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 11:10:32 GMT
Paul, I thought the whole speech was excelllent. How anyone could vote for Sunak rather than Starmer is unbelievable. WE now have a prospective PM who is serious and thinks things through carefully, not a charismatic corrupt fool like Boris or an insignificant little boy who can only play to his extremists like Sunnak or an idiot like Truss. I will check it all through later Peter - thanks. I’m still struggling for concentration as I feel quite exhausted after my Norovirus experience. Paul Commiserations. That is a very nasty virus in its effects. |
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patrickbrian
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These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
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Post by patrickbrian on May 27, 2024 11:20:15 GMT
We need some more polls....
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