Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2024 20:49:42 GMT
Lab: 37% (-1) Reform: 19% (+2) Con: 18% (nc) Lib Dem: 14% (-1) Green: 7 (-1) SNP: 3 (+1) Plaid: 1 (nc) Other: 2 (+1) I'm disliking this reduction in the Labour vote, regardless of what is going on elsewhere. Enough already. Nothing below 37% thanks all the same. I and others such as alec have been commenting on the noticeable fall in LAB VI in several polls over recent days, but it attracted little reaction, apart from some noting that some methodologies had changed. Still MOE, sort of, but there does seem to be a general, even increasing, decline in LAB support. And three weeks still to go... |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 20:50:02 GMT
As has been mentioned upthread, YouGov are now using the same adjustment methodology as they use for their MRPs in their Voting Intention polls. Their actual responses in Scotland gave a 35/35 tie between Lab and SNP, but the re-weighting turns this into a 43/31 lead for the SNP. I would read all the pluses and minuses they show the other way round - for example, their methodology increases the Tory vote share in Scotland from 7% to 9%. Looking at the GB headline figures, their adjustment/re-weighting has reduced Labour's lead over the Tories by 6 points overall. Without adjustment, these figures would be: Lab 40.3% Con 15.3% Ref 18% LD 13.8% That sounds improbably high for the SNP under present circumstances. |
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Post by thylacine on Jun 13, 2024 20:50:05 GMT
Farage has just told us a vote for Tories is a vote for labour 🤣
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 13, 2024 20:51:00 GMT
Latest YG poll has two VI tables -
1. Westminster Voting Intention [Headline voting intention projected by YouGov MRP model]
2. Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, and imagining that these were the political parties standing, which party do you intend to vote for in the July 4th 2024 UK general election?
I looked at the Scots column only (and recalculated the constituency table to exclude DK & WNV), but there are others for Wales and the YG English regions
1. 2. Diff Party
31% 35% (+4) Lab
34% 35% (+1) SNP
9% 7% (-2) Con
12% 11% (-1) LD
7% 6% (-1) REFUK
5% 4% (-1) SGP
3% 3% (=) Other
I'll leave it to the more expert polling gurus to work out what that means, if anything.
I don't count myself amongst the experts but the ignorami view is that the defectors to Lab will be in seats they could take from the Tories (defectors from SNP and LD) and to SNP will be from Lab / LD when the seat is an Tory/ SNP marginal. ie that it is an ABT effect Maybe, but my suspicion is that the YG model suffers from GIGO with small samples. After all, 2 days previously that model "predicted" an SNP share of 23% and a Lab share of 44%. |
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Post by ping on Jun 13, 2024 20:52:17 GMT
Reform gains on the basis of the YouGov poll and UNS - all held by Con in 2019 Ashfield - Lee Anderson Clacton - Nigel Farage Wellingborough and Rushden - Ben Habib Boston and Skegness - Richard Tice Torridge and Tavistock - Andrew Jackson. So the big 4, and a guy with the same name as a former US President who is Donald Trump's political hero. Two of which (Ashfield and Wellingborough and Rushden) were predicted to go Labour by MiC, YouGov and Survation MRPs. Eek. Survation also had Clacton and Torridge and Tavistock going red, bless them. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 13, 2024 20:55:49 GMT
As has been mentioned upthread, YouGov are now using the same adjustment methodology as they use for their MRPs in their Voting Intention polls. Their actual responses in Scotland gave a 35/35 tie between Lab and SNP, but the re-weighting turns this into a 43/31 lead for the SNP. I would read all the pluses and minuses they show the other way round - for example, their methodology increases the Tory vote share in Scotland from 7% to 9%. Looking at the GB headline figures, their adjustment/re-weighting has reduced Labour's lead over the Tories by 6 points overall. Without adjustment, these figures would be: Lab 40.3% Con 15.3% Ref 18% LD 13.8% That sounds improbably high for the SNP under present circumstances. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 13, 2024 20:58:48 GMT
Didn't have you down as a one poll bedwetter, pj. The Labour march of the fainthearts. I wouldn't be panicking just yet. Because we're in an election period many more pollsters have been polling. Comparing like-with-like, my Labour lead index rose by 3.2% over the first three weeks of the campaign and so far has fallen back to +1.8% in the fourth week with polls from three of the six pollsters in, so far. Even if the other three polls reduced the rise to zero and the decline continued at the same rate as this week for the next two weeks, we are still looking at a Blair-level landslide. The predictions of a near 300 Labour majority were never realistic; look back at 1997 and you can see that many polls had Labour over 20 points ahead during the campaign but the final margin of victory was 12.5%. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 20:59:04 GMT
At last at last. And it took the Green Party leader to raise it. The real Elephant in the room gets a long overdue airing.
Our voting system.
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Post by jib on Jun 13, 2024 21:02:19 GMT
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 13, 2024 21:02:30 GMT
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Post by thylacine on Jun 13, 2024 21:05:21 GMT
Claire Rayner's closing statement was incredibly powerful she warned Cameron that if he did anything to damage her nhs then she'd come back to haunt him!
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Post by Old Southendian on Jun 13, 2024 21:07:23 GMT
I'm disliking this reduction in the Labour vote, regardless of what is going on elsewhere. Enough already. Nothing below 37% thanks all the same. I and others such as alec have been commenting on the noticeable fall in LAB VI in several polls over recent days, but it attracted little reaction, apart from some noting that some methodologies had changed. Still MOE, sort of, but there does seem to be a general, even increasing, decline in LAB support. And three weeks still to go... You're quite right, and it's certainly been confirmed in enough polls now to look like more than a blip. What remains to be seen is if the drop continues. Like many others, I didn't really think Labour would get much over 40%, and as long as their VI stays above 35%, with the CON/REF vote split, they should still get that majority, just not the ridiculous 'super-majority' that's been talked about. If the votes are leaking to CON, that's more of a problem, but that doesn't seen to be the direction of travel at the moment. So it's more going to the other parties, maybe LD, Green, and some to Reform probably. That is less dangerous to Labour, and to be honest, a more representative split of MPs would probably be a good thing. Though I don't really want to see Farage and co in parliament personally, it's difficult to deny that they've got enough support to warrant a voice. |
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Post by shevii on Jun 13, 2024 21:09:25 GMT
“Most of the public don’t care what colour the cat is, they just want some mice caught,” the Mordaunt has said in reference to “dogma”, while answering a question about the NHS.
When I read this on the Guardian live feed she had my vote on the first part of the statement and I thought someone after my own heart, but then ruined it with the mice bit which is exactly what I didn't like when we had a cat- far from it in fact.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 13, 2024 21:10:34 GMT
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,362
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 21:12:06 GMT
I'm disliking this reduction in the Labour vote, regardless of what is going on elsewhere. Enough already. Nothing below 37% thanks all the same. I and others such as alec have been commenting on the noticeable fall in LAB VI in several polls over recent days, but it attracted little reaction, apart from some noting that some methodologies had changed. Still MOE, sort of, but there does seem to be a general, even increasing, decline in LAB support. And three weeks still to go... You cannot tell until the methodology changes have settled in whether its a trend. However the smaller parties are clearly now jumping in with the argument that lab have already won, so its safe to vote for them, a few votes off lab will not matter. Con have even rather agreed with this, asking people to come back to them so they can be the opposition, but its not at all clear anyone wants them to be anything, so again thats effectively consent for people to vote for smaller parties. Which I guess could help them ultimately if they persuade more people to vote for alternative parties instead of lab. Farage just argued very convincingly he will stand up in parliament for lower immigration. Given this consensus lab is going to win, he is making a very convincing case to vote for him, if not for his party more widely. I think he sees an outside chance of Reform making a significant breakthrough in MPs. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 21:13:40 GMT
Claire Rayner's closing statement was incredibly powerful she warned Cameron that if he did anything to damage her nhs then she'd come back to haunt him! We need crofty's Angela Ripon to chip in here. |
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Post by James E on Jun 13, 2024 21:14:32 GMT
Reform gains on the basis of the YouGov poll and UNS - all held by Con in 2019 Ashfield - Lee Anderson Clacton - Nigel Farage Wellingborough and Rushden - Ben Habib Boston and Skegness - Richard Tice Torridge and Tavistock - Andrew Jackson. So the big 4, and a guy with the same name as a former US President who is Donald Trump's political hero. I imagine that these RefUK gains are derived from applying Electoral Calculus rather than UNS. UNS with those YouGov figures would give these changes to vote shares from 2019: Con -27 Lab +4 Ref +17 So if you apply that to Clacton, we get Con 48%, Lab 20%, Ref 17% Or Ashfield, Lab 28%, Ref 22%, Con 13% |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 21:17:49 GMT
Just a thought, and apologies to RobbieAlive for sharing it.
Which three Conservatives will BBC's Newsnight programme invite on to their three person panel to discuss the Labour Manifesto tonight?
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Post by alec on Jun 13, 2024 21:18:01 GMT
The danger really comes for Labour from the Tory collapse. Once Reform start to poll above Conservative, then Farage will simply say that it's a two horse race and only Reform can challenge Labour. That's the point at which we will see if the 36% or so of Co/Reform votes could coalesce under one banner, and if the bandwagon did start to roll, then all bets would be off.
I'd have to say I think that's unlikely, and I think Starmer & Labour have surprised on the upside so far, but the mass of undecided voters could behave in unpredictable ways, if the media latches onto a completely new dynamic. Against that, Labour's attack against chaos could readily switch to attacking Reform, those flirting with Greens and Lib Dems would need to think very carefully about that if this became a genuine two horse race, and despite what some think, Labour have quite a positive message to sell. There is also the issue of Reform's vote distribution, which may not be beneficial i terms of challenging for seats. And voting starts in less than a week, so early postal returns should start to stack up before we get close to this scenario.
But Labour shouldn't take their foot off the gas, that's for sure.
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 21:19:29 GMT
Yes, damn Starmer for winning people's votes. Doesn't he understand that the purpose of the Labour Party is to nobly lose? Well - we know the Daily Mail supported Oswald Mosley and was Adolf Hitler's favourite British newspaper. That was nearly 100 years ago. Anyone remotely involved will be long dead. What possible relevance does it have? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2024 21:20:10 GMT
I and others such as alec have been commenting on the noticeable fall in LAB VI in several polls over recent days, but it attracted little reaction, apart from some noting that some methodologies had changed. Still MOE, sort of, but there does seem to be a general, even increasing, decline in LAB support. And three weeks still to go... You're quite right, and it's certainly been confirmed in enough polls now to look like more than a blip. What remains to be seen is if the drop continues. Like many others, I didn't really think Labour would get much over 40%, and as long as their VI stays above 35%, with the CON/REF vote split, they should still get that majority, just not the ridiculous 'super-majority' that's been talked about. If the votes are leaking to CON, that's more of a problem, but that doesn't seen to be the direction of travel at the moment. So it's more going to the other parties, maybe LD, Green, and some to Reform probably. That is less dangerous to Labour, and to be honest, a more representative split of MPs would probably be a good thing. Though I don't really want to see Farage and co in parliament personally, it's difficult to deny that they've got enough support to warrant a voice. Excellent post. Completely agree. |
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Post by James E on Jun 13, 2024 21:29:07 GMT
I'm disliking this reduction in the Labour vote, regardless of what is going on elsewhere. Enough already. Nothing below 37% thanks all the same. I and others such as alec have been commenting on the noticeable fall in LAB VI in several polls over recent days, but it attracted little reaction, apart from some noting that some methodologies had changed. Still MOE, sort of, but there does seem to be a general, even increasing, decline in LAB support. And three weeks still to go... YouGov and Survation have changed methodologies, but most have not. The only really large decline in the Labour VI we have had was from People Polling, but we know little of their methodology. The 5 polls most recent polls we have had - all with fieldwork of 11-13 June show the Labour VI down on its Jan-May level but only by an average of 2 points: 12-13 June Techne 43% (-1) 12-13 June YouGov 37% (-3) - compared to their pre-election MRPs as a like-with-like. 12-13 June R&W 42% (-2) 12-13 June WeThink 43% (-2) 11-12 June BMG 41% (-1) Meanwhile, these 5 polls show an average 2% rise in the LD VI (+1%, 2.5%, 3%, 2%, & 2.5% across the same 5) when compared to the same companies' Jan-May figures. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results |
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Post by shevii on Jun 13, 2024 21:32:10 GMT
I'm not sure that is true. If the Labour vote continues to fall at the rate it has been in the last few days for another week or so, we are looking at a very messy hung parliament. Not sure you're being entirely serious on this :-) If you were then I think we can mostly discount this as a problem for Labour by the fact that this probably doesn't represent a change in the actual number of Labour voters and is more to do with Reform voters now expressing a preference thereby reducing the percentages of other parties. Until there's any evidence of Reform gaining Labour votes I think this is just a statistical fact of life, although LD and Greens do not appear to have suffered from the same effect (but much lower percentages to start with) so maybe they are doing a little bit better on the churn from potential Labour votes and LD especially are likely to be stacking up votes now in their target seats. Talking of Greens if the Tories do end up on the yougov type figures then I think Greens may have a chance in their other two target seats if Labour aren't doing any work in the area. Seen some two horse race/bar graph Green leaflets on twitter for Waveney Valley and if the constituents are getting 4 or 5 of those and Labour put out one then Greens have a good chance of squeezing the ABT vote, especially if those Tory large majorities are ending up with Reform and not switching to Labour as may be the case in Scotland- graham will be along any minute to say "no chance" and he's probably right :-) The only minor fear remaining for Labour now is turnout but that can only affect the size of their majority and I doubt this has anything to do with those smallish (and expected) drops in the Lab percentages during the campaign. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 21:32:54 GMT
Thanks. I can't read the x.com links. |
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Post by RAF on Jun 13, 2024 21:35:08 GMT
Reform gains on the basis of the YouGov poll and UNS - all held by Con in 2019 Ashfield - Lee Anderson Clacton - Nigel Farage Wellingborough and Rushden - Ben Habib Boston and Skegness - Richard Tice Torridge and Tavistock - Andrew Jackson. So the big 4, and a guy with the same name as a former US President who is Donald Trump's political hero. I imagine that these RefUK gains are derived from applying Electoral Calculus rather than UNS. UNS with those YouGov figures would give these changes to vote shares from 2019: Con -27 Lab +4 Ref +17 So if you apply that to Clacton, we get Con 48%, Lab 20%, Ref 17% Or Ashfield, Lab 28%, Ref 22%, Con 13% Yes sorry - it's not pure UNS. It's whatever EC uses. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 21:36:49 GMT
BMG's biggest Labour lead since October 2022. BMG only poll once a month, but comparing their 4 pre-election polls (averaged) with these figures shows a similar pattern to other pollsters: Lab 41% (-1) Con 21% (-5) Ref 14% (+2) LD 11% (+2.5) It's the margin between the two major parties that matters in the end. I'm guessing that it doesn't really matter if Labour are 47% or 40% if the gap with the Tories remains at 20%. FPTP will deliver the goods in terms of Commons seats. Now, if Labour declined and the Tories gained at their expense then, well, it's different gravy time. But that doesn't appear to be happening. So, if not now, when? We've had three weeks of campaigning, manifesto launches, TV leaders debates.... What's got to happen for the Tories to close the 20% gap over these last three weeks? WWIII. War is a traditional way for faltering governments to distract the voters (if it's a democracy) and gives the excuse to declare a state of emergency, cancel elections etc. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2024 21:38:28 GMT
Well - we know the Daily Mail supported Oswald Mosley and was Adolf Hitler's favourite British newspaper. That was nearly 100 years ago. Anyone remotely involved will be long dead. What possible relevance does it have? That’s pretty recent for my mate Graham. |
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Post by shevii on Jun 13, 2024 21:39:41 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2024 21:44:19 GMT
I and others such as alec have been commenting on the noticeable fall in LAB VI in several polls over recent days, but it attracted little reaction, apart from some noting that some methodologies had changed. Still MOE, sort of, but there does seem to be a general, even increasing, decline in LAB support. And three weeks still to go... YouGov and Survation have changed methodologies, but most have not. The only really large decline in the Labour VI we have had was from People Polling, but we know little of their methodology. The 5 polls most recent polls we have had - all with fieldwork of 11-13 June show the Labour VI down on its Jan-May level but only by an average of 2 points: 12-13 June Techne 43% (-1) 12-13 June YouGov 37% (-3) - compared to their pre-election MRPs as a like-with-like. 12-13 June R&W 42% (-2) 12-13 June WeThink 43% (-2) 11-12 June BMG 41% (-1) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_resultsThanks, James E. Typically informed, and informative. Reassuring, too. Let's hope there is no significant further decline. CON and RFM both polling 18/19% on 4th July would be nice, too. I just wish there weren't another three weeks to go! |
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Post by alec on Jun 13, 2024 21:44:46 GMT
Significant developments on Ukraine at the G7 meeting. The EU has approved a plan to use the interest from frozen Russian assets to finance further loans to Ukraine of $50bn, while Biden & Zelensky have signed a security agreement which gives Ukraine more Patriot air defense systems and transfers 'squadrons' (note the plural) of F-16s plus equipment and weapons for the planes.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to butcher Russia's air defences in and around Crimea, with three more air defence targets hit yesterday (2 launchers and a radar station). Russia is also transferring military families out of Crimea, with speculation that the destruction of the Nova Khakovka dam has meant the peninsula is running out of water.
Meanwhile, in Russia, there are reports of a run on banks as customers try to get cash following recent tightening of sanctions. Dollars are now unavailable, the main Moscow stock markets can now no longer trade dollar and euro denominated stocks, and the central bank in Moscow has announced today that the Yuan/ruble exchange rate will be the main reference rate for currency pairs (including the dollar) as Russia becomes ever more reliant on China. Websites of several major Russia banks were unavailable yesterday as well, as it became increasingly difficult to exchange rubles for other currencies.
Militarily and economically it does look like quite strong currents are running against Putin now.
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