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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2024 20:08:41 GMT
The ITV debate is rubbish. There is no debate, just people shouting. I give up. Surprised you even gave it a go. I can’t even watch an interview. |
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Post by RAF on Jun 13, 2024 20:08:53 GMT
Reform gains on the basis of the YouGov poll and UNS - all held by Con in 2019
Ashfield - Lee Anderson
Clacton - Nigel Farage
Wellingborough and Rushden - Ben Habib
Boston and Skegness - Richard Tice
Torridge and Tavistock - Andrew Jackson.
So the big 4, and a guy with the same name as a former US President who is Donald Trump's political hero.
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Post by matt126 on Jun 13, 2024 20:09:14 GMT
YouGov/R&W have Reform ahead of very close to the Tories and We think/ BMG/ Survation / delta/ Opinium have a big gap between Tories and Reform. There seem to be something very wrong with some of these polls
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 20:10:33 GMT
Lab: 37% (-1) Reform: 19% (+2) Con: 18% (nc) Lib Dem: 14% (-1) Green: 7 (-1) SNP: 3 (+1) Plaid: 1 (nc) Other: 2 (+1) I'm disliking this reduction in the Labour vote, regardless of what is going on elsewhere. Enough already. Nothing below 37% thanks all the same. Didn't have you down as a one poll bedwetter, pj. The Labour march of the fainthearts. |
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Post by RAF on Jun 13, 2024 20:11:56 GMT
YouGov/R&W have Reform ahead of very close to the Tories and We think/ BMG/ Survation / delta/ Opinium have a big gap between Tories and Reform. There seem to be something very wrong with some of these polls Sampling for Reform voters has never been that great. Either there aren't enough of them on most panels, or most are eventually filtered out of final totals after weighting for past vote is applied. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2024 20:12:14 GMT
Plaid Cymru’s manifesto seems utterly self-obsessed. Not a word about England!  |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 20:12:29 GMT
Interesting SNP demanding more immigration for Scotland. Can't help thinking there ought to be an obvious solution then, to send the migrants there and keep everyone happy? Except...while the English parties say they want to cut immigration they are also utterly reliant upon it for essential services!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 13, 2024 20:13:05 GMT
“ A new study suggests that as temperatures rise, political discourse dumbs down. The study analysed more than seven million parliamentary speeches made in eight countries, including England, since the 1950s. It found that higher temperatures were linked to a significant reduction in the complexity of language used by MPs.” Times Lucky its turned cold then. Does the efect work with studio lights? well it doesn’t say specifically Danny, what it says is… “ Heat has long been associated with a range of negative health outcomes, including increased risk of decreased productivity and cognitive performance,” Dr Risto Conte Keivabu, of the Max Planck Institute in Germany, said.” …and… “ They also found evidence that older politicians tended to be affected by warm days more than younger ones, with the effect kicking in when temperatures reached about 21C. “This result increases our confidence in the study’s findings. It is logical that older individuals might be more susceptible to extreme temperatures, which aligns with our observation and underscores the robustness of our conclusions,” Conte Keivabu said.
He and his colleagues speculate that hot weather may disrupt sleep and keep politicians indoors and away from fresh air, making them cognitively sluggish.” |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2024 20:16:14 GMT
Lab: 37% (-1) Reform: 19% (+2) Con: 18% (nc) Lib Dem: 14% (-1) Green: 7 (-1) SNP: 3 (+1) Plaid: 1 (nc) Other: 2 (+1) That shows Tories/Refuk level with Labour so they can fuck off and ask again …. and again, until they get an acceptable answer. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 20:18:32 GMT
Techne Lab 43 (-1) Con 19 (-1) Reform 16 (+1) Lib Dem 11 (+1) Green 6 (nc) SNP 2 (nc) 44% to 43%. Gulp. Panic. By July 4th it may be circa 33% at this rate. Mind you, the Tories will be at 9% at the same rate of attrition. 😜 |
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Post by James E on Jun 13, 2024 20:18:44 GMT
Where are we at with the "Don't Knows"? Are they coming down % yet? Thank you, dodger ! This is what I want to know. Does anyone have access to the raw data? Labour's % seems to be coming down and others (RefUK, Lib Dems) seem to be going up, but is this because don't knows are splitting for the others/perhaps voting tactically or is it because people are switching from Labour? Must be there in the data.* *Hope I'm making sense. Just coming back from the pub. Thursday is the... old Thursday. Looking at YouGov's tables, the Con 2019 Don't Knows are a few points lower (from low 20s to 16%) than they were a few months ago, and Labour's Don't Knows are unchanged (8-9%). This has not made much difference to the polls, though it should mean that the 'adjusted' polling figures differ less from the rest than they did by a point or so. The largest change I can see for Labour is that they are taking less of the LD 2019 vote (from circa 40% to 20% per YouGov). Labour are also retaining a lower percentage of their own 2019 voters than they were. However, it's important to remember that the polling companies do change their methodology - in particular, by prompting according to the declared candidates in each constituency rather than a chosen list of parties. This has made a significant difference to some companies' figures. On a like-with-like basis, Labour have lost about 2 points on average from where they were in January to May . |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 13, 2024 20:19:11 GMT
So if according to the study posted above, heat makes politicians perform less well, are the politicians better somewhere colder like Scotland/Holyrood than in Westminster? Would France be worse? And should we move the UK parliament to Scotland? Or to the Shetlands. Or British Antarctica?
(Then again, what if there’s a similar performance drop if it gets too cold?🤯🤯🤯)
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 13, 2024 20:23:27 GMT
Latest YG poll has two VI tables -
1. Westminster Voting Intention [Headline voting intention projected by YouGov MRP model]
2. Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, and imagining that these were the political parties standing, which party do you intend to vote for in the July 4th 2024 UK general election?
I looked at the Scots column only (and recalculated the constituency table to exclude DK & WNV), but there are others for Wales and the YG English regions
1. 2. Diff Party
31% 35% (+4) Lab
34% 35% (+1) SNP
9% 7% (-2) Con
12% 11% (-1) LD
7% 6% (-1) REFUK
5% 4% (-1) SGP
3% 3% (=) Other
I'll leave it to the more expert polling gurus to work out what that means, if anything.
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Post by alberto on Jun 13, 2024 20:24:54 GMT
Plaid Cymru’s manifesto seems utterly self-obsessed. Not a word about England! They could ask for it back. |
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Danny
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Posts: 10,362
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 20:25:42 GMT
Reform gains on the basis of the YouGov poll and UNS - all held by Con in 2019 Ashfield - Lee Anderson Clacton - Nigel Farage Wellingborough and Rushden - Ben Habib Boston and Skegness - Richard Tice Torridge and Tavistock - Andrew Jackson. So the big 4, and a guy with the same name as a former US President who is Donald Trump's political hero. Eh Torridge! Possible other site of early infection with covid 2019. In their case Id suggest it was the tourist industry surfing along that coast attracting chinese from the university with the collaboration project in China. Just a guess. |
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Post by thylacine on Jun 13, 2024 20:25:50 GMT
Mordaunt very very very shouty. She's obviously upset about something?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 20:27:26 GMT
I'm disliking this reduction in the Labour vote, regardless of what is going on elsewhere. Enough already. Nothing below 37% thanks all the same. Didn't have you down as a one poll bedwetter, pj. The Labour march of the fainthearts. Labour has fallen in all the most recent polls. Six or seven at least. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 20:29:55 GMT
Mordaunt very very very shouty. She's obviously upset about something? How is she being permitted to talk all over Rayner every time the latter opens her mouth? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 20:34:04 GMT
Didn't have you down as a one poll bedwetter, pj. The Labour march of the fainthearts. Labour has fallen in all the most recent polls. Six or seven at least. labour has been falling since 2022, but con falling since 2020. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 13, 2024 20:34:16 GMT
Latest YG poll has two VI tables -
1. Westminster Voting Intention [Headline voting intention projected by YouGov MRP model]
2. Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, and imagining that these were the political parties standing, which party do you intend to vote for in the July 4th 2024 UK general election?
I looked at the Scots column only (and recalculated the constituency table to exclude DK & WNV), but there are others for Wales and the YG English regions
1. 2. Diff Party
31% 35% (+4) Lab
34% 35% (+1) SNP
9% 7% (-2) Con
12% 11% (-1) LD
7% 6% (-1) REFUK
5% 4% (-1) SGP
3% 3% (=) Other
I'll leave it to the more expert polling gurus to work out what that means, if anything.
I don't count myself amongst the experts but the ignorami view is that the defectors to Lab will be in seats they could take from the Tories (defectors from SNP and LD) and to SNP will be from Lab / LD when the seat is an Tory/ SNP marginal. ie that it is an ABT effect |
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Post by ping on Jun 13, 2024 20:36:20 GMT
The largest change I can see for Labour is that they are taking less of the LD 2019 vote (from circa 40% to 20% per YouGov). Labour are also retaining a lower percentage of their own 2019 voters than they were. However, it's important to remember that the polling companies do change their methodology - in particular, by prompting according to the declared candidates in each constituency rather than a chosen list of parties. This has made a significant difference to some companies' figures. On a like-with-like basis, labour have lost about 2 points on average. Brilliant, thanks James E. So, this may be the result of Lib Dem and left-of-Labour voters feeling assured enough of a Tory defeat to vote with their hearts? I wonder how many Con 2019 voters would have voted Labour instead of Reform if Farage hadn't decided to stand. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 20:38:25 GMT
Mordaunt very very very shouty. She's obviously upset about something? How is she being permitted to talk all over Rayner every time the latter opens her mouth? Pretty simple answer, I think. Two words. Julie Etchingham. |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 20:39:28 GMT
Frog faced hate gimp " I blame immigrants , now what's the question? "
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Post by RAF on Jun 13, 2024 20:40:12 GMT
Mordaunt very very very shouty. She's obviously upset about something? Possibly Rishi. |
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,362
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 20:41:11 GMT
The largest change I can see for Labour is that they are taking less of the LD 2019 vote (from circa 40% to 20% per YouGov). Labour are also retaining a lower percentage of their own 2019 voters than they were. However, it's important to remember that the polling companies do change their methodology - in particular, by prompting according to the declared candidates in each constituency rather than a chosen list of parties. This has made a significant difference to some companies' figures. On a like-with-like basis, labour have lost about 2 points on average. Brilliant, thanks James E. So, this may be the result of Lib Dem and left-of-Labour voters feeling assured enough of a Tory defeat to vote with their hearts? I wonder how many Con 2019 voters would have voted Labour instead of Reform if Farage hadn't decided to stand. Its a small change, I still think its constituency level tactical voting being added into the polling methodology. But we would expect now to be seeing people starting to finally make up their minds. Not long to postal voting commencing. |
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2024 20:41:37 GMT
Mordaunt very very very shouty. On a related point, Julie Etchingham is absolutely useless. |
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Post by thylacine on Jun 13, 2024 20:41:39 GMT
Mordaunt looks fucking fed up. Excuse alliteration.
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Post by James E on Jun 13, 2024 20:47:39 GMT
Latest YG poll has two VI tables -
1. Westminster Voting Intention [Headline voting intention projected by YouGov MRP model]
2. Now, thinking specifically about your own constituency, and imagining that these were the political parties standing, which party do you intend to vote for in the July 4th 2024 UK general election?
I looked at the Scots column only (and recalculated the constituency table to exclude DK & WNV), but there are others for Wales and the YG English regions
1. 2. Diff Party
31% 35% (+4) Lab
34% 35% (+1) SNP
9% 7% (-2) Con
12% 11% (-1) LD
7% 6% (-1) REFUK
5% 4% (-1) SGP
3% 3% (=) Other
As has been mentioned upthread, YouGov are now using the same adjustment methodology as they use for their MRPs in their Voting Intention polls. Their actual responses in Scotland gave a 35/35 tie between Lab and SNP, but the re-weighting turns this into a 34/31 lead for the SNP. I would read all the pluses and minuses above the other way round - for example, their adjustment increases the Tory vote share in Scotland from 7% to 9%, but reduces Lab from 35% to 31% Looking at the GB headline figures, their adjustment/re-weighting has reduced Labour's lead over the Tories by 6 points overall. Without adjustment, these figures would be: Lab 40.3% Con 15.3% Ref 18% LD 13.8% |
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Post by thylacine on Jun 13, 2024 20:48:02 GMT
Mordaunt did just get the biggest laugh of the night when she answered Farage on why the Tories should be believed on immigration with " because of the record of our prime minister.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 20:49:09 GMT
Mourdant is getting more audience laughs than Lee Mack gets in one of his gigs.
Only difference is that Mack is a comedian and Mourdant is a serious poli.......
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