steve
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Posts: 12,638
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 21:46:23 GMT
Same shite different bus.  |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 21:52:59 GMT
“ A new study suggests that as temperatures rise, political discourse dumbs down. The study analysed more than seven million parliamentary speeches made in eight countries, including England, since the 1950s. It found that higher temperatures were linked to a significant reduction in the complexity of language used by MPs.” Times “ Previous studies have linked hot weather to a greater chance of political rebellions and riots, but also to higher voter turnouts and more support for the incumbent party.
Researchers have also highlighted a steady decrease in the complexity of political language over the past 200 years, with some believing this affects how we are governed.
“Concerns are often brought forward in connection to rising populist movements and prominent populist leaders, who allegedly use less complex political language in order to strategically appeal to and manipulate their voters,” Conte Keivabu and his colleagues wrote.” That would be the effect of widening the franchise. I would expect the pattern to be similar in other countries, but in the UK as the franchise gradually widened, more poorly educated people would be involved so political language has to be simplified. If Starmer extends the franchise to 16 year olds presumably politicians will have to start talking about how they will improve things in "da hood" or something. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 21:53:01 GMT
Labour has fallen in all the most recent polls. Six or seven at least. Because we're in an election period many more pollsters have been polling. Comparing like-with-like, my Labour lead index rose by 3.2% over the first three weeks of the campaign and so far has fallen back to +1.8% in the fourth week with polls from three of the six pollsters in, so far. Even if the other three polls reduced the rise to zero and the decline continued at the same rate as this week for the next two weeks, we are still looking at a Blair-level landslide. The predictions of a near 300 Labour majority were never realistic; look back at 1997 and you can see that many polls had Labour over 20 points ahead during the campaign but the final margin of victory was 12.5%. I'm not - so long as it stops here. |
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Post by ping on Jun 13, 2024 21:54:56 GMT
Thanks shevii. Do you think a lot of Con 2019 switchers could be Labour brexiteers who leant the Tories their vote in 2019? If so, Reform's resurgence could mean that disenchanted Con 2019 voters who would otherwise have switched back to Labour are instead going to vote Reform. I'm not saying this puts Labour's majority at risk but I still don't like the direction of travel. |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2024 21:55:08 GMT
The danger really comes for Labour from the Tory collapse. Once Reform start to poll above Conservative, then Farage will simply say that it's a two horse race and only Reform can challenge Labour. That's the point at which we will see if the 36% or so of Co/Reform votes could coalesce under one banner, and if the bandwagon did start to roll, then all bets would be off. I'd have to say I think that's unlikely, and I think Starmer & Labour have surprised on the upside so far, but the mass of undecided voters could behave in unpredictable ways, if the media latches onto a completely new dynamic. Against that, Labour's attack against chaos could readily switch to attacking Reform, those flirting with Greens and Lib Dems would need to think very carefully about that if this became a genuine two horse race, and despite what some think, Labour have quite a positive message to sell. There is also the issue of Reform's vote distribution, which may not be beneficial i terms of challenging for seats. And voting starts in less than a week, so early postal returns should start to stack up before we get close to this scenario. But Labour shouldn't take their foot off the gas, that's for sure. ... in relation to Reform, Labour haven't put their foot on the gas yet and to put it mildly, I find that really disappointing. Anyway, in relation to Alex's post can one of you clever polling people help me? I seem to remember that some time ago there was polling on people's likelihood to consider voting for each particular party. If memory serves me well (it probably doesn't 😃), of the main GB parties Labour had the biggest potential pond to fish in with the biggest percentage who would at least contemplate voting for them. At the other of the scale, if I recall correctly, Reform had the smallest pond to fish in voter wise, with most of us not wanting to touch the f***ers with a barge-pole. Have I remembered that correctly? If so, can anyone dig out the polling and post it? (I can't find it). I'm sure the polling wasn't that recent - maybe a couple of years back so it might have changed since then. I just suspect and let's face it, hope, that Reform have a 'natural' low ceiling. |
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steve
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Posts: 12,638
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 21:55:41 GMT
Someone asked if I could see the lib dems getting to around their 1997 general election result of 16.8% I thought it challenging looking at current polling particularly among younger voters it's now looking plausible.
Just for fun I put in a three way the between refuk, Tory and lib dem into electoral calculus.
Of course Labour win a landslide but the lib dems comfortably win more seats than all the other GB and Northern Ireland parties combined.
It would be a sea change in Westminster politics.
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2024 22:01:12 GMT
Someone asked if I could see the lib dems getting to around their 1997 general election result of 16.8% I thought it challenging looking at current polling particularly among younger voters it's now looking plausible. Just for fun I put in a three way the between refuk, Tory and lib dem into electoral calculus. Of course Labour win a landslide but the lib dems comfortably win more seats than all the other GB and Northern Ireland parties combined. It would be a sea change in Westminster politics. Ah, I knew you’d come around to FPTP eventually Steve 😉 It was me that asked if you saw your party getting to 17% btw. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 22:04:38 GMT
Reform gains on the basis of the YouGov poll and UNS - all held by Con in 2019 Ashfield - Lee Anderson Clacton - Nigel Farage Wellingborough and Rushden - Ben Habib Boston and Skegness - Richard Tice Torridge and Tavistock - Andrew Jackson. So the big 4, and a guy with the same name as a former US President who is Donald Trump's political hero. I'd be pretty surprised if those all happened, but if they did could it be analogous to the 1892 (I think) election when Labour made it's first appearance and then gradually supplanted the Liberals as the second major party? Nigel Farage would be the new Keir Hardie!  |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 22:06:52 GMT
Interesting SNP demanding more immigration for Scotland. Can't help thinking there ought to be an obvious solution then, to send the migrants there and keep everyone happy? Except...while the English parties say they want to cut immigration they are also utterly reliant upon it for essential services! I suppose we could just declare Bradford to be part of Scotland. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 13, 2024 22:07:33 GMT
Desperation setting in  |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 22:07:37 GMT
I'm not sure that is true. If the Labour vote continues to fall at the rate it has been in the last few days for another week or so, we are looking at a very messy hung parliament. Not sure you're being entirely serious on this :-) On current polling, no I'm not serious; Labour wins a very comfortable majority. But obviously they can't slide down indefinitely without an effect; that's just electoral maths. How many voters are absolutely committed to voting Labour I wonder? Hopefully 35%+. BTW the Tories are stuffed. There will be a change of government regardless. Just a question of what the HoC will look like. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 22:08:55 GMT
Her defeat would be well worth a cheer. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 22:09:09 GMT
Lab: 37% (-1) Reform: 19% (+2) Con: 18% (nc) Lib Dem: 14% (-1) Green: 7 (-1) SNP: 3 (+1) Plaid: 1 (nc) Other: 2 (+1) That shows Tories/Refuk level with Labour so they can fuck off and ask again …. and again, until they get an acceptable answer. No wonder you like the EU. |
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Post by James E on Jun 13, 2024 22:09:26 GMT
The unadjusted figures show the Conservatives in 4th place in the South of England: Lab 31% LDs 22% Ref 19% Con 17.5% But the adjustment brings them up to equal 3rd: Lab 27% LD 23% Ref 20% Con 20% Even with the benefit of the adjustments, the Tories are still losing a larger proportion of their vote share in their strongest regions, the South and Midlands of England - per YouGov, or all other pollsters I have checked recently. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 22:11:12 GMT
So if according to the study posted above, heat makes politicians perform less well, are the politicians better somewhere colder like Scotland/Holyrood than in Westminster? Would France be worse? And should we move the UK parliament to Scotland? Or to the Shetlands. Or British Antarctica? (Then again, what if there’s a similar performance drop if it gets too cold?🤯🤯🤯) It explains a lot about Italy's politics. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 22:18:06 GMT
The unadjusted figures show the Conservatives in 4th place in the South of England: Lab 31% LDs 22% Ref 19% Con 17.5% But the adjustment brings them up to equal 3rd: Lab 27% LD 23% Ref 20% Con 20% Even with the benefit of the adjustments, the Tories are still losing a larger proportion of their vote share in their strongest regions, the South and Midlands of England - per YouGov, or all other pollsters I have checked recently. Utterly staggering. Entirely jaw-dropping numbers. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 22:19:58 GMT
I'm disliking this reduction in the Labour vote, regardless of what is going on elsewhere. Enough already. Nothing below 37% thanks all the same. I and others such as alec have been commenting on the noticeable fall in LAB VI in several polls over recent days, but it attracted little reaction, apart from some noting that some methodologies had changed. Still MOE, sort of, but there does seem to be a general, even increasing, decline in LAB support. And three weeks still to go... I will be interested to see the position in a poll taken after all the manifestos have been announced. I suspect that none so far have been. I know that hardly anyone reads the manifestos in full, but they are all over the newspapers and radio and TV and no doubt social media too. |
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Post by norbold on Jun 13, 2024 22:43:00 GMT
Reform gains on the basis of the YouGov poll and UNS - all held by Con in 2019 Ashfield - Lee Anderson Clacton - Nigel Farage Wellingborough and Rushden - Ben Habib Boston and Skegness - Richard Tice Torridge and Tavistock - Andrew Jackson. So the big 4, and a guy with the same name as a former US President who is Donald Trump's political hero. Two of which (Ashfield and Wellingborough and Rushden) were predicted to go Labour by MiC, YouGov and Survation MRPs. Eek. Survation also had Clacton and Torridge and Tavistock going red, bless them. I don't know about Torridge and Tavistock, but, before the intervention of Farage, Clacton was going to be very close between Conservative and Labour. We had definite hopes of winning it. I always did think Survation were the best company! The intervention of Farage has, of course, thrown the whole thing up in the air but, so far, he doesn't seem to have done much damage to either of the two main parties. As I have said before, our canvassing continues to show that it is the didn't-vote-last-time brigade where the main portion of his votes are coming from. We'll just have to see how this pans out over the next three weeks.... |
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 13, 2024 22:44:49 GMT
Two of which (Ashfield and Wellingborough and Rushden) were predicted to go Labour by MiC, YouGov and Survation MRPs. Eek. Survation also had Clacton and Torridge and Tavistock going red, bless them. I don't know about Torridge and Tavistock, but, before the intervention of Farage, Clacton was going to be very close between Conservative and Labour. We had definite hopes of winning it. I always did think Survation were the best company! The intervention of Farage has, of course, thrown the whole thing up in the air but, so far, he doesn't seem to have done much damage to either of the two main parties. As I have said before, our canvassing continues to show that it is the didn't-vote-last-time brigade where the main portion of his votes are coming from. We'll just have to see how this pans out over the next three weeks.... Hard luck sport. It must be galling. |
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Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 22:51:04 GMT
Labour has fallen in all the most recent polls. Six or seven at least. I wouldn't be panicking just yet. Because we're in an election period many more pollsters have been polling. Comparing like-with-like, my Labour lead index rose by 3.2% over the first three weeks of the campaign and so far has fallen back to +1.8% in the fourth week with polls from three of the six pollsters in, so far. Even if the other three polls reduced the rise to zero and the decline continued at the same rate as this week for the next two weeks, we are still looking at a Blair-level landslide. The predictions of a near 300 Labour majority were never realistic; look back at 1997 and you can see that many polls had Labour over 20 points ahead during the campaign but the final margin of victory was 12.5%. The lead in 1997 was 13% across GB. You are relying on UK data there only used by 2 pollsters - Survation ans Savanta Comres. |
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Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 22:56:34 GMT
The danger really comes for Labour from the Tory collapse. Once Reform start to poll above Conservative, then Farage will simply say that it's a two horse race and only Reform can challenge Labour. That's the point at which we will see if the 36% or so of Co/Reform votes could coalesce under one banner, and if the bandwagon did start to roll, then all bets would be off. I'd have to say I think that's unlikely, and I think Starmer & Labour have surprised on the upside so far, but the mass of undecided voters could behave in unpredictable ways, if the media latches onto a completely new dynamic. Against that, Labour's attack against chaos could readily switch to attacking Reform, those flirting with Greens and Lib Dems would need to think very carefully about that if this became a genuine two horse race, and despite what some think, Labour have quite a positive message to sell. There is also the issue of Reform's vote distribution, which may not be beneficial i terms of challenging for seats. And voting starts in less than a week, so early postal returns should start to stack up before we get close to this scenario. But Labour shouldn't take their foot off the gas, that's for sure. Voting has already started! In some areas Poatal Votes were sent out earlier this week. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 23:04:29 GMT
That was nearly 100 years ago. Anyone remotely involved will be long dead. What possible relevance does it have? That’s pretty recent for my mate Graham. Mind you, my wife (who has been following all the debates much more closely than I have) said tonight that when Labour get in it will be like having Cromwell in charge again. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 13, 2024 23:05:13 GMT
The lead in 1997 was 13% across GB. You are relying on UK data there only used by 2 pollsters - Survation ans Savanta Comres. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 13, 2024 23:08:19 GMT
Voting has already started! In some areas Poatal Votes were sent out earlier this week. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 13, 2024 23:09:59 GMT
That’s pretty recent for my mate Graham. Mind you, my wife (who has been following all the debates much more closely than I have) said tonight that when Labour get in it will be like having Cromwell in charge again. |
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 13, 2024 23:11:56 GMT
I and others such as alec have been commenting on the noticeable fall in LAB VI in several polls over recent days, but it attracted little reaction, apart from some noting that some methodologies had changed. Still MOE, sort of, but there does seem to be a general, even increasing, decline in LAB support. And three weeks still to go... That is less dangerous to Labour, and to be honest, a more representative split of MPs would probably be a good thing. Though I don't really want to see Farage and co in parliament personally, it's difficult to deny that they've got enough support to warrant a voice. Yes it's disconcerting to live in a country where 20% of the voters support Farage. But as you say if that's what people want ... I started off thinking Reform's support was a bubble which would burst before July 4th. But UKIP got 13% in 2015 and it is quite possible Farage could garner a vote in the high teens. Farage offers the usual message of the charismatic leader. "I'm an outsider. Follow me and I'll change your life". Im not sure if Old Southendian refers to your school or you live in Southend. I hv only been there once when I returned from France on a ferry in the fog aged 15 with a friend I had hitchhiked with. A young drunk guy on the ferry offered us a lift in a Ford Popular he had parked there. He drove round town siphoning petrol until he was gassed up (the fog helped). A while later I had to tell him we were driving up the A12 dual carriage way on the wrong carriage way against the traffic, as he seemed oblivious of the the horns & people swerving around us. Drunks were always a problem hitchhiking. No one does it any more. I have never been back. |
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Post by jen on Jun 13, 2024 23:12:12 GMT
That’s pretty recent for my mate Graham. Mind you, my wife (who has been following all the debates much more closely than I have) said tonight that when Labour get in it will be like having Cromwell in charge again. Why? |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 23:19:11 GMT
oldnat  She just knows her history. When I thought about it, I could see the similarities. Although the punishments are likely to be less harsh, the Witchfinder General was equivalent to the modern thought police, though of course they have flourished under the Tories too. EDIT: jen see above
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 13, 2024 23:19:21 GMT
Mind you, my wife (who has been following all the debates much more closely than I have) said tonight that when Labour get in it will be like having Cromwell in charge again. Even older if she was thinking of Thomas Cromwell. |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jun 13, 2024 23:34:05 GMT
Interesting responses to the question at the 7 party debate to "Would you ever re-join the EU and the Single Market?"
Lab - No. Never
Con - No
REFUK - No
LD - Hopefully, at some time in the future
E&W Green - Yes, when the time is right
Plaid - EU best but now, get back into Customs Union and Single Market
SNP - Yes, definitely
x.com/SNPCallum/status/1801351008062181511
Notable differences between the parties primarily seeking English votes and the other two.
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She just knows her history. When I thought about it, I could see the similarities. Although the punishments are likely to be less harsh, the Witchfinder General was equivalent to the modern thought police, though of course they have flourished under the Tories too.