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Post by John Chanin on Jun 13, 2024 19:19:48 GMT
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 13, 2024 19:23:03 GMT
"So one example & the whole BBC coverage is condemned" - Yes, because Kuennsberg is such a key part of it and undoubtedly helps set the culture. I must admit as it's literally years since I've voluntarily watched more than a few minutes of BBC political coverage it's certainly possible that I'm missing many attempts at real balance and holding the gvt to account, ie your mention that N Robinson has given Sunak a grilling of late. Recent reports from others on here though such as attempts to explain away Sunak's early departure from the D-day commemorations and treating the £2000 tax rise lie as a clever wheeze give me cause to doubt it. Thanks but there is no point pursuing this. 1. When attitudes I questioned are so ingrained, so widely held on here by the exponents of every party, nothing will cause them to be shifted or questioned. 2. They are also removed from a context I understand. The criteria of judgement applied to the BBC are more exacting than those applied to the rest of the printed & broadcasting media, so that the BBC's failure to meet them is guaranteed. So SKY's Beth Rigby & ITN's Etchingham were both criticised on here for a pro-Sunak bias without this leading to a wider condemnation of their host broadcasters. 3. But let me feed the ravenous with red meat.
Senior economists have complained to BBC about Laura Kuenssberg comparing Whitehall spending to taking out a credit card.www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/13/why-government-debt-is-not-like-household-borrowing |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2024 19:23:17 GMT
This is Will Hutton's take on the manifesto - x.com/williamnhutton/status/1801238753786110367Not sure I'd go that far, but it's fair to say that it does have substance, and as pjw1961 said (I think) the tired old trope of Starmer's Labour being 'just the same as the Tories is, well, a tired old trope. He was rather fortunate that at last night's Sky event hosted by Beth Rigby that nobody took the opportunity to suggest that he was as much of a compulsive liar as Boris Johnson - albeit for different reasons. I wouldn't put that down to him being "rather fortunate". Rather, I think he'd have been extremely unlucky to have come across someone so myopic and blind with hate of him, that they would be clueless enough to put him in the same bracket as Johnson when it came to lying. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 13, 2024 19:23:41 GMT
Lab: 37% (-1) Reform: 19% (+2) Con: 18% (nc) Lib Dem: 14% (-1) Green: 7 (-1) SNP: 3 (+1) Plaid: 1 (nc) Other: 2 (+1) |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2024 19:25:30 GMT
Margin of error and all that, but a poll like this was coming. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 19:26:00 GMT
BMG poll Lab 41% (-1) Con 21% (-2) Ref 14% (-2) LD 12% (+3) Grn 6% (-) SNP 3% (-1) BMG's biggest Labour lead since October 2022. BMG only poll once a month, but comparing their 4 pre-election polls (averaged) with these figures shows a similar pattern to other pollsters: Lab 41% (-1) Con 21% (-5) Ref 14% (+2) LD 11% (+2.5) It's the margin between the two major parties that matters in the end. I'm guessing that it doesn't really matter if Labour are 47% or 40% if the gap with the Tories remains at 20%. FPTP will deliver the goods in terms of Commons seats. Now, if Labour declined and the Tories gained at their expense then, well, it's different gravy time. But that doesn't appear to be happening. So, if not now, when? We've had three weeks of campaigning, manifesto launches, TV leaders debates.... What's got to happen for the Tories to close the 20% gap over these last three weeks? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 19:26:03 GMT
When i was a student, there was an important election, and one of my friends (only one!) said he was going to vote Conservative. When challenged, he said he'd read all three manifestos, and he thought the Con one was the best. Needless to say, none of the rest of us had read any of them. Generally I don't believe people's votes are influenced at all by the manifestos, but rather they are carried along by one or another competing narratives about the parties , (which the manifestos contribute to only slightly). When Dennis Healey declared "We will squeeze the rich till the pips squeak", he didn't need to elucidate with figures on CGT, higher band income tax etc. We got the picture. Similarly, "Get Brexit done". This time around, the slogan "Change" is pretty misleading - the picture I'm getting from Starmer is "I'm a safe option and won't do anything too radical too quick." The Tories? Something like: "we're really fucked this time . Help Us! Pleaaase!" None of which has much to do with what they'll actually do, but looks like good news for a modest increase in Lib Dem VI In 2017 the election was all about Brexit, May inisted. Labour avoided the subject and did pretty well considering the country had just voted to leave, so you might expect the leave party to have the majority. Starmer seems this time to also be leaving it to con to hang themselves. I think the economy will worsen during the rest of this year. I assume con think so too, and thats why the election was now. After that...who knows. Blair inherited an improving economy and so had scope to spend. Its very unclear what Starmer will have to deal with. Years ago someone highlighted a research paper which argued UK governments have minimal impact on the UK economy, which is mostly determined by world events. So the world economy is in a slump, has been since 2008, and covid made matters worse. Brexit has made matters even more difficult for the UK if general conditions worsen, which they well could. Or, who knows, the US could drag us all back into a boom. |
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Post by shevii on Jun 13, 2024 19:26:16 GMT
Lab: 37% (-1) Reform: 19% (+2) Con: 18% (nc) Lib Dem: 14% (-1) Green: 7 (-1) SNP: 3 (+1) Plaid: 1 (nc) Other: 2 (+1) That's a new yougov |
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Post by athena on Jun 13, 2024 19:28:13 GMT
I know I'm playing catch-up, but if anyone else is still interested in the EU elections - or just fancies a break from the GE campaign - I found this podcast interesting, especially the discussion of the longer term implications and how the transition is affecting European politics. It's not the easiest to follow, I had to concentrate more than I do for most podcasts, because they cover a lot of ground. Probably nothing revelatory for people like domjg who follow European politics closely, but it was about my level. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 19:29:51 GMT
I saw Keith Joseph once...He had a go at his audience of students. I saw Keith Joseph debate with Gordon Brown when Brown was Rector of Edinburgh University (the first and olnly student to hold that office) . If they had had a referee he would have stepped in and saved the hapless Joseph At least he was a tryer! |
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Post by jib on Jun 13, 2024 19:32:34 GMT
Poor Penny Mordaunt looks defeated before they've even started!
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 19:33:54 GMT
Lab: 37% (-1) Reform: 19% (+2) Con: 18% (nc) Lib Dem: 14% (-1) Green: 7 (-1) SNP: 3 (+1) Plaid: 1 (nc) Other: 2 (+1) I'm disliking this reduction in the Labour vote, regardless of what is going on elsewhere. Enough already. Nothing below 37% thanks all the same. |
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Post by thylacine on Jun 13, 2024 19:34:59 GMT
Farage already declaring Reform beating Tories in polls!
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 13, 2024 19:35:40 GMT
Alternatively, Refuk undertake Tories.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 19:36:36 GMT
It will introduce record tax rises while overseeing huge public service cuts Both lab and con are in agreement they plan we will reach record levels of taxation next year, whoever wins. Thing is though, this isnt unique to the UK. Western societies have all seen tax take steadily increase as the voters demand ever more state services. If you want to live in a western state then high taxes are unavoidable. And yet here we have both parties denying the truth of this. The conservatives have been in power for 14 years with a mission to cut taxes, and instead they put them up. If thats not proof of its inevitability, I dont know what is. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 13, 2024 19:38:36 GMT
Lab: 37% (-1) Reform: 19% (+2) Con: 18% (nc) Lib Dem: 14% (-1) Green: 7 (-1) SNP: 3 (+1) Plaid: 1 (nc) Other: 2 (+1) I'm disliking this reduction in the Labour vote, regardless of what is going on elsewhere. Enough already. Nothing below 37% thanks all the same. Agree, although under the old YouGov methodology it would be around tory 15-16, Labour 40-41 and Reform 17-18 x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1801336060032548883 |
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Post by jib on Jun 13, 2024 19:39:30 GMT
Get in there Angela!
"Tories aided and abetted by the Lib Dems"
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Post by ping on Jun 13, 2024 19:44:52 GMT
Where are we at with the "Don't Knows"? Are they coming down % yet? Thank you, dodger! This is what I want to know. Does anyone have access to the raw data? Labour's % seems to be coming down and others (RefUK, Lib Dems) seem to be going up, but is this because don't knows are splitting for the others/perhaps voting tactically or is it because people are switching from Labour? Must be there in the data.* *Hope I'm making sense. Just coming back from the pub. Thursday is the... old Thursday. |
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Post by Old Southendian on Jun 13, 2024 19:45:16 GMT
Three weeks to go to the big 22:00 exit poll, and it's getting really interesting. Though nobody really doubts the winner, even if there's some more swing-back, the only other certainty seems to be that there will be many marginals of all sorts. In Scotland, there's going to be (mostly) SNP-LAB marginals, but also some CON-SNP marginals as even the safe CON seats in Scotland are looking shaky. In England, the number of CON to LAB switches is going to be in a critical region where many seats could change hands on a small swing either way. Then there are all the CON-LD marginals, and probably the occasional CON-REF marginal, not to mention the contentious 3-way marginals. Could be an exciting night, even if the LAB OM is not in doubt. Bring it on, I'm fed up with all the news coverage already.
On the other hand, you wouldn't know there's anything going on from our area. I've seen no (physical) adverts, boards, stickers in windows, and apart from our 4 polling cards, the only other sign of life is one Conservative sheet of non-news. Wouldn't mind having a chat to a canvaser at some point, but I suspect Labour have already chalked our constituency down as a sure fire gain.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 13, 2024 19:47:32 GMT
It's the margin between the two major parties that matters in the end. I'm guessing that it doesn't really matter if Labour are 47% or 40% if the gap with the Tories remains at 20%. FPTP will deliver the goods in terms of Commons seats. In the sense that everyone expects a majority Labour government, yes, but absolute levels of VI have consequences once we start talking about third parties. For example, with the Tories on 27% they will lose fewer "Blue Wall" seats to the Lib Dems than if they are on 20%. Similarly, if Labour are on 40% they will win fewer seats from the SNP than if they are on 47%. Which party has the most Scottish MPs on July 5th matters; because if that party is Labour, it becomes more difficult for the SNP to argue they are being ruled from London by a Party that didn't win in Scotland. This has been an effective grievance for the last 14 years. |
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Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 19:47:58 GMT
Yougov appears to have Reform higher than other pollsters. Is this a House effect = or has the pollster messed up via its methodological changes?
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Post by jen on Jun 13, 2024 19:52:55 GMT
The ITV debate is rubbish. There is no debate, just people shouting. I give up.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 19:53:35 GMT
Labour's % seems to be coming down and others (RefUK, Lib Dems) seem to be going up, but is this because don't knows are splitting for the others/perhaps voting tactically or is it because people are switching from Labour? Must be there in the data.* *Hope I'm making sense. Just coming back from the pub. Thursday is the... old Thursday. It seems companies have been switching to methodology using input from their big models. Which is about trying to look more closely at constituencies individually. Which in particular ought to imply a bigger share for libs and less for labour because we are predicting strong tactical voting rather than uniform swings. So thats lab to lib jump. Reform is a not unanticipated jump if Farage decided to become actively involved, and he did. But if this persists its likely to cripple con not lab. As someone posted above, if the goal of the public is to have their revenge on con, that seems to be exactly what is happening. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 19:56:27 GMT
Three weeks to go to the big 22:00 exit poll, and it's getting really interesting. Though nobody really doubts the winner, even if there's some more swing-back, the only other certainty seems to be that there will be many marginals of all sorts. In Scotland, there's going to be (mostly) SNP-LAB marginals, but also some CON-SNP marginals as even the safe CON seats in Scotland are looking shaky. In England, the number of CON to LAB switches is going to be in a critical region where many seats could change hands on a small swing either way. Then there are all the CON-LD marginals, and probably the occasional CON-REF marginal, not to mention the contentious 3-way marginals. Could be an exciting night, even if the LAB OM is not in doubt. Bring it on, I'm fed up with all the news coverage already. On the other hand, you wouldn't know there's anything going on from our area. I've seen no (physical) adverts, boards, stickers in windows, and apart from our 4 polling cards, the only other sign of life is one Conservative sheet of non-news. Wouldn't mind having a chat to a canvaser at some point, but I suspect Labour have already chalked our constituency down as a sure fire gain. I'm not sure that is true. If the Labour vote continues to fall at the rate it has been in the last few days for another week or so, we are looking at a very messy hung parliament. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 13, 2024 19:57:59 GMT
“A new study suggests that as temperatures rise, political discourse dumbs down. The study analysed more than seven million parliamentary speeches made in eight countries, including England, since the 1950s. It found that higher temperatures were linked to a significant reduction in the complexity of language used by MPs.”
Times
“Previous studies have linked hot weather to a greater chance of political rebellions and riots, but also to higher voter turnouts and more support for the incumbent party.
Researchers have also highlighted a steady decrease in the complexity of political language over the past 200 years, with some believing this affects how we are governed.
“Concerns are often brought forward in connection to rising populist movements and prominent populist leaders, who allegedly use less complex political language in order to strategically appeal to and manipulate their voters,” Conte Keivabu and his colleagues wrote.”
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Post by thylacine on Jun 13, 2024 19:58:49 GMT
Denyer doing well but then she's not being tackled by the others. On top of her brief though, fact checked Farage live .
Audience laughing at Mordaunt!
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 20:00:22 GMT
Yougov appears to have Reform higher than other pollsters. Is this a House effect = or has the pollster messed up via its methodological changes? That seems to be two descriptions of the same thing? |
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Post by thylacine on Jun 13, 2024 20:00:53 GMT
steve Brexit a topic after the break ( shocked )
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Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 20:02:27 GMT
Techne
Lab 43 (-1)
Con 19 (-1)
Reform 16 (+1)
Lib Dem 11 (+1)
Green 6 (nc)
SNP 2 (nc)
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 20:04:24 GMT
“ A new study suggests that as temperatures rise, political discourse dumbs down. The study analysed more than seven million parliamentary speeches made in eight countries, including England, since the 1950s. It found that higher temperatures were linked to a significant reduction in the complexity of language used by MPs.” Times Lucky its turned cold then. Does the efect work with studio lights? |
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