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Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 17:31:36 GMT
According to Refield & Wilton Labour leads the Tories 37% to 25% with Daily Mail readers - perhaps highlighting how rightwing the party is widely perceived to be. A survey of Searchlight readers would be interesting!
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Post by alec on Jun 13, 2024 17:32:59 GMT
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Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 17:37:46 GMT
It does not alter the fact that Starmer has reneged on many of the pledges made when running for the leadership. He was rather fortunate that at last night's Sky event hosted by Beth Rigby that nobody took the opportunity to suggest that he was as much of a compulsive liar as Boris Johnson - albeit for different reasons. When he changed hid mind about policy commitments across such a wide area he ought to have gone back to the membership and sought their endorsement. That would have been honourable - but he failed to do it. As a result, his legitimacy is now undermined. Actually I thought he answered that one OK yesterday. He took over and in the intervening years has had to adjust, prioritise and cost things for what may only be his first term's manifesto.
Plus of course a lot changes over 4.5 years - such as the economy getting far worse (Brexit, Covid, Tories...) so he can't responsibly promise all the magic money tree things he once thought he could.
Also, let's not forget the election to become leader is a completely different contest to that for becoming PM, with an entirely different electorate. Any politician with half a brain would realise the need to pander to different audiences. Shame that so many think of it as lying - in a free democracy I believe people are allowed to change their mind over time.
Of course, it was a different electorate, but that cannot disguise the fact that he misled party members - effectively betraying them having told a pack of lies to suit his purpose at the time. It was every bit as dishonourable as Johnson's behaviour in a differen context. He should have put himself up for re-election inviting others to stand against him so allowing the membership to make a choice. Edit - Covid had arrived by April 2020.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 17:42:03 GMT
For those who can stand it ...
"ITV will host a 90-minute seven party debate, which is scheduled to kick off at 8.30pm BST. Moderated by Julie Etchingham, the debate will include:
Penny Mordaunt for the Conservative party
Angela Rayner for the Labour party
Daisy Cooper for Liberal Democrats
Stephen Flynn for SNP
Nigel Farage for Reform
Carla Denyer for Green party
Rhun ap Iorwerth for Plaid Cymru"
I'm not sure I see the point of this.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 17:45:35 GMT
According to Refield & Wilton Labour leads the Tories 37% to 25% with Daily Mail readers - perhaps highlighting how rightwing the party is widely perceived to be. A survey of Searchlight readers would be interesting! Yes, damn Starmer for winning people's votes. Doesn't he understand that the purpose of the Labour Party is to nobly lose? |
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Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 17:49:22 GMT
According to Refield & Wilton Labour leads the Tories 37% to 25% with Daily Mail readers - perhaps highlighting how rightwing the party is widely perceived to be. A survey of Searchlight readers would be interesting! Yes, damn Starmer for winning people's votes. Doesn't he understand that the purpose of the Labour Party is to nobly lose? Well - we know the Daily Mail supported Oswald Mosley and was Adolf Hitler's favourite British newspaper. |
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Post by laszlo4new on Jun 13, 2024 17:55:51 GMT
I have finished 82 semi-structured interviews with potential electors. The sample is representative of the NW of England. The purpose of the interviews was to identify potential causes of changing voting next month in comparison of 2019 (so, not predicting the distribution of votes).
Methodology (very briefly): outcome variables: changing or not changing voting. Then having 14 variables (independent) that describe the interviewee. These were not predetermined but were the outcomes of the narratives (although in some cases several variables not mentioned by others were summarised in a thematic variable). Then a fairly simple statistical method was used to identify the dominant patterns.
As I wrote, it is only for the NW of England. Essentially, the age group of 35-55 is the moat homogeneous group. There is very low probability of changing the vote from.Labour, LibDem, Green. The switch from Conservatives is dependent on work, education, and place of living. Essentially, those who have a degree or certified skills, are in work and live in a city are very likely to.change from.Conservatives, and mainly to Labour. The 18-35 group would mainly vote for parties outside the main ones. There is medium chance that those who had the voting right in 2019 and voted for Greens would vote to another "more radical" party or independent (those who didn't have the voting right, the question was hypothetical, and eventually I excluded them,so it is really for 23-35, but the 18-23 showed similarities). The 55-69 group was the most mixed, the patterns were blurred and the independent variables could not explain the outcome variables. The 70+ group had a very clear pattern, and it was largely gender dependent. Men who would now change their vote are not voting at a medium probability. Women who would change are likely to vote neither Labour or Conservatives. The highest probability of the swap is to LibDems, but oddly there is a smallish probability of switching from LibDems to Greens. Neither of the two genders are likely to pick independent candidates or "new parties".
I know that it is high level, and I was surprised that age was so dominant (but only because of the other variables - if I excluded them, then age wouldn't have been dominant). Obviously, the exact narratives are confidential, but I was quite surprised by the elaborations, yet it was relatively easy to lead these back to those 14 independent variables. I was surprised that parties are not doing these systematic coding-analyses.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 17:58:57 GMT
Yes, damn Starmer for winning people's votes. Doesn't he understand that the purpose of the Labour Party is to nobly lose? Well - we know the Daily Mail supported Oswald Mosley and was Adolf Hitler's favourite British newspaper. The Daily Mail is not supporting the Labour Party in this election (or indeed any previous one, including under Blair). |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 13, 2024 18:00:03 GMT
According to Refield & Wilton Labour leads the Tories 37% to 25% with Daily Mail readers - perhaps highlighting how rightwing the party is widely perceived to be. A survey of Searchlight readers would be interesting! It is stereotyping to suggest that all Daily Mail readers should have identical right-wing political views. My late father was a committed trade unionist, but still took the Daily Express as his newspaper (this was back in the 1950s and 60s when I was growing up). Perhaps what it means is that newspaper readers are more discerning than you give them credit for and are quite capable of separating news from opinion. Searchlight seems to have difficulty in distinguishing fact from fiction, which I would have thought would appeal more to Tory voters. |
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Post by jib on Jun 13, 2024 18:01:15 GMT
This is Will Hutton's take on the manifesto - x.com/williamnhutton/status/1801238753786110367Not sure I'd go that far, but it's fair to say that it does have substance, and as pjw1961 said (I think) the tired old trope of Starmer's Labour being 'just the same as the Tories is, well, a tired old trope. It does not alter the fact that Starmer has reneged on many of the pledges made when running for the leadership. He was rather fortunate that at last night's Sky event hosted by Beth Rigby that nobody took the opportunity to suggest that he was as much of a compulsive liar as Boris Johnson - albeit for different reasons. When he changed his mind about policy commitments across such a wide area he ought to have gone back to the membership and sought their endorsement. That would have been honourable - but he failed to do it. As a result, his legitimacy is now undermined. His legitimacy will be decided on July the 4th. I rather think he is going to get a ringing endorsement from the GB electorate. |
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Post by jib on Jun 13, 2024 18:01:56 GMT
Well - we know the Daily Mail supported Oswald Mosley and was Adolf Hitler's favourite British newspaper. The Daily Mail is not supporting the Labour Party in this election (or indeed any previous one, including under Blair). I got the impression they were just ignoring the whole thing! |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 18:03:02 GMT
I have finished 82 semi-structured interviews with potential electors. The sample is representative of the NW of England. The purpose of the interviews was to identify potential causes of changing voting next month in comparison of 2019 (so, not predicting the distribution of votes). Hi Lazlo, interesting. Did Reform UK switching feature in the study or was the effect of Farage entering the election and the subsequent Reform surge too late to register? |
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Jun 13, 2024 18:12:12 GMT
When i was a student, there was an important election, and one of my friends (only one!) said he was going to vote Conservative. When challenged, he said he'd read all three manifestos, and he thought the Con one was the best. Needless to say, none of the rest of us had read any of them.
Generally I don't believe people's votes are influenced at all by the manifestos, but rather they are carried along by one or another competing narratives about the parties , (which the manifestos contribute to only slightly). When Dennis Healey declared "We will squeeze the rich till the pips squeak", he didn't need to elucidate with figures on CGT, higher band income tax etc. We got the picture. Similarly, "Get Brexit done". This time around, the slogan "Change" is pretty misleading - the picture I'm getting from Starmer is "I'm a safe option and won't do anything too radical too quick." The Tories? Something like: "we're really fucked this time . Help Us! Pleaaase!"
None of which has much to do with what they'll actually do, but looks like good news for a modest increase in Lib Dem VI
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Post by jib on Jun 13, 2024 18:13:01 GMT
For those who can stand it ... "ITV will host a 90-minute seven party debate, which is scheduled to kick off at 8.30pm BST. Moderated by Julie Etchingham, the debate will include: Penny Mordaunt for the Conservative party Angela Rayner for the Labour party Daisy Cooper for Liberal Democrats Stephen Flynn for SNP Nigel Farage for Reform Carla Denyer for Green party Rhun ap Iorwerth for Plaid Cymru" I'm not sure I see the point of this. I saw that last week. Is it a repeat?  |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 18:15:28 GMT
Brilliant manifesto from Labour.
From the moment I picked it up to the moment I put it down, I felt nothing but pride and excitement about what lies ahead
I really must read it one day.
(sorry, Groucho)
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Post by James E on Jun 13, 2024 18:16:04 GMT
R&W - Labour leads by 24%.
Lowest EVER Conservative % (worse than Truss).
Highest Lib Dem % in 2024.
🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (12-13 June):
Labour 42% (-3)
Conservative 18% (-1)
Reform 17% (–)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 7-10 June
....
These figures show almost exactly the same pattern as I have noted in other pollsters who have reported figures in the past 48 hours. Compared to R&W's pre-22ndMay averages, this one is;
Lab 42% (-2)
Con 18% (-4.5)
LD 13% (+3)
Ref 17% (+4)
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 18:18:40 GMT
For those who can stand it ... "ITV will host a 90-minute seven party debate, which is scheduled to kick off at 8.30pm BST. Moderated by Julie Etchingham, the debate will include: Penny Mordaunt for the Conservative party Angela Rayner for the Labour party Daisy Cooper for Liberal Democrats Stephen Flynn for SNP Nigel Farage for Reform Carla Denyer for Green party Rhun ap Iorwerth for Plaid Cymru" I'm not sure I see the point of this. TV channel one-upmanship. We got bigger ratings than you-hoo....... Anything you can do we can do better..... P.S. Good news for Farage, though. He loves this format. |
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Post by johntel on Jun 13, 2024 18:24:18 GMT
R&W - Labour leads by 24%. Lowest EVER Conservative % (worse than Truss). Highest Lib Dem % in 2024. 🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (12-13 June): Labour 42% (-3) Conservative 18% (-1) Reform 17% (–) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Green 5% (–) SNP 3% (–) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 7-10 June .... These figures show almost exactly the same pattern as I have noted in other pollsters who have reported figures in the past 48 hours. Compared to R&W's pre-22ndMay averages, this one is; Lab 42% (-2) Con 18% (-4.5) LD 13% (+3) Ref 17% (+4) Too late, Laszlo has already highlighted the big swing to the Lib Dems  |
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Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 18:24:37 GMT
BMG poll
Lab 41% (-1)
Con 21% (-2)
Ref 14% (-2)
LD 12% (+3)
Grn 6% (-)
SNP 3% (-1)
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Post by laszlo4new on Jun 13, 2024 18:29:39 GMT
I have finished 82 semi-structured interviews with potential electors. The sample is representative of the NW of England. The purpose of the interviews was to identify potential causes of changing voting next month in comparison of 2019 (so, not predicting the distribution of votes). Hi Lazlo, interesting. Did Reform UK switching feature in the study or was the effect of Farage entering the election and the subsequent Reform surge too late to register? Well, some interviewees called Reform UK as UKIP.. Just run a.test (it is not significant), but those who said they would switch for Reform (both feom.Conservative and Labour) said that Farage was just an ad, so not important. On the other hand, especially 55+ said that they would rather vote for independent than for a party led by Farage. Also, women were very unlikely to.switch to.Reform.UK. It is highly intuitive - I think in the NW the Reform.UK will be well under the prediction in the polls (but is is a mere intuition from listening to these people). |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 18:30:52 GMT
For those who can stand it ... "ITV will host a 90-minute seven party debate, which is scheduled to kick off at 8.30pm BST. Moderated by Julie Etchingham, the debate will include: Penny Mordaunt for the Conservative party Angela Rayner for the Labour party Daisy Cooper for Liberal Democrats Stephen Flynn for SNP Nigel Farage for Reform Carla Denyer for Green party Rhun ap Iorwerth for Plaid Cymru" I'm not sure I see the point of this. I saw that last week. Is it a repeat? Despite being live, almost certainly. In fact they could all save themselves the trouble and show that one again |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 18:32:48 GMT
Hi Lazlo, interesting. Did Reform UK switching feature in the study or was the effect of Farage entering the election and the subsequent Reform surge too late to register? Well, some interviewees called Reform UK as UKIP.. Just run a.test (it is not significant), but those who said they would switch for Reform (both feom.Conservative and Labour) said that Farage was just an ad, so not important. On the other hand, especially 55+ said that they would rather vote for independent than for a party led by Farage. Also, women were very unlikely to.switch to.Reform.UK. It is highly intuitive - I think in the NW the Reform.UK will be well under the prediction in the polls (but is is a mere intuition from listening to these people). Thanks Lazlo. Again, interesting. |
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Post by James E on Jun 13, 2024 18:39:36 GMT
BMG poll Lab 41% (-1) Con 21% (-2) Ref 14% (-2) LD 12% (+3) Grn 6% (-) SNP 3% (-1) BMG's biggest Labour lead since October 2022. BMG only poll once a month, but comparing their 4 pre-election polls (averaged) with these figures shows a similar pattern to other pollsters: Lab 41% (-1) Con 21% (-5) Ref 14% (+2) LD 11% (+2.5) |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 18:54:19 GMT
" A survey of Searchlight readers would be interesting! "
Both of them!
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 18:54:51 GMT
I saw both Harold Wilson and Ted Heath addressing large audiences in Norwich during the 1966 election. Wilson was absolutely brilliant with hecklers and took part in some excellent repartee. Heath was hopeless - he just had security throw them out. I saw Keith Joseph once...He had a go at his audience of students. |
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Post by laszlo4new on Jun 13, 2024 18:56:28 GMT
Just in case, the variables were:
Age
Gender
Minority (religion, colour, immigration combined)
House (size, ownership combined)
Area (centre, outskirts, etc)
Education level
Being in work
Satisfaction of work (including position, security, etc)
Moving in from outside the NW, moving within NW
Voting in 2019
Satisfaction with the standards of life (it is a summary of a large number of sub variables)
Satisfaction with changes in the last 5, 10, 15 years (depending on the age)
Effects of interaction with other people
Voting in this election.
There was one factor that was included in the above variables: plans for the next 3, 5, 10 years.
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Post by bardin1 on Jun 13, 2024 19:00:14 GMT
I saw Keith Joseph once...He had a go at his audience of students. I saw Keith Joseph debate with Gordon Brown when Brown was Rector of Edinburgh University (the first and olnly student to hold that office) . If they had had a referee he would have stepped in and saved the hapless Joseph |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 13, 2024 19:08:07 GMT
Atleast we now know what a Labour Government will be.
It will herald a new socialist one party state that is no different to a tory Government
It will introduce record tax rises while overseeing huge public service cuts
It will be a woke Government while doing nothing for minority groups
Starmer will be a weak leader dominated by left wingers while having a Stalinist like control of the party
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Post by leftieliberal on Jun 13, 2024 19:17:33 GMT
Generally I don't believe people's votes are influenced at all by the manifestos Agreed. I don't even read my own Party's manifesto; if I was a candidate then I would expect to be able to field questions from the public (who almost certainly would not have read the manifesto) on Party policy, but that is about all. Other parties would delegate manifesto reading to their researchers, hoping to turn up a blooper, and apart from them it is journalists looking for an angle on a story. The most important people who read manifestos are the civil servants who will be going through them to decide if they have to create new policies (or more accurately policy options) for their new ministers. For something like Lords' reform they can probably go back to what their predecessors did for Tony Blair, because I am sure the civil servants had scoped out more than the initial stage that was actually implemented. |
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Post by jen on Jun 13, 2024 19:17:37 GMT
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