25 May 2024 : LAB: 44% / CON: 22% / REF 14% / LDM 9%

[Deleted]

Jun 13, 2024 6:45:48 GMT Danny said:

Jun 13, 2024 6:36:50 GMT steve said:

I did learn to drive a 🚜 by the age of ten.

That would be illegal now wouldnt it? Likely if the authorities discovered this now, they would be sending round child protection services to see if your parents were abusing you and no longer fit to continue as parents?

Do you think your kids (grandkids) should be able to learn tractor driving aged ten?

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[pjw1961]

Jun 13, 2024 6:56:29 GMT shevii said:

Election Maps UK
@electionmapsuk
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 39% (-7)
CON: 19% (-1)
RFM: 17% (+3)
LDM: 10% (+2)

Via
@peoplepolling
, 11-12 Jun.
Changes w/ 16 May.

We used to mock peoplepolling for their low Conservative VI. They are no longer alone. 

[crossbat11]

Jun 13, 2024 6:56:29 GMT shevii said:

Election Maps UK
@electionmapsuk
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 39% (-7)
CON: 19% (-1)
RFM: 17% (+3)
LDM: 10% (+2)

Via
@peoplepolling
, 11-12 Jun.
Changes w/ 16 May.

It's interesting how recent polls have seen Labour floating down significantly from what I always thought were unrealistic mid to high 40 levels. No party has ever achieved those sorts of vote share figures in recent times, not even landslide winners like Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.

I'm sticking to my 38-40% figure for Labour on polling day with the only question now being how close to 30% can the Tories crawl.

I'm revising my 30% prediction down to 26-28% now.

Not baked in stone quite yet, but that's where I am. 65% turnout.

[pete]

Jun 12, 2024 6:44:47 GMT alec said:

mercian - "I like the co-operative model too. The John Lewis Partnership and the Co-op itself are the prime examples that I'm aware of. Do you have any theories as to why it didn't take off more?"

One reason is regulation and regulatory capture. In the finance sector, Credit Unions are effective and locally based, but heavily restricted by regulations, which have not been drafted for the benefit of local people, but instead under pressure from major banks anxious to avoid creating a space for alternative models to thrive. This has long been the case. In Victorian times, the newly created Post Office started to sell pension products, but banks were furious because they couldn't compete and make large profits, so in due course the PO was forced to leave the market and private pensions have been in the hands of the finance sector ever since.

To be fair, I think co-operative models also suffer from slow administrative needs. Because of the more democratic decision making, they aren't as nimble as share holder owned enterprises, and financiers probably apply differing criteria making borrowing more costly, especially for new entrants.

Very interesting post-thanks. Not heard of a credit union?

[thylacine]

If you want to get a different perspective on last night's Grimsby event try the Guardian podcast.

www.theguardian.com/politics/audio/2024/jun/13/politics-weekly-westminster-starmer-and-sunak-face-audience-in-grimsby-podcast

This goes against our own perceived wisdom and indeed that of the yougov poll. It is very critical of Starmer's performance and views Sunak as the winner.

I suspect here we see the machinations of the Guardian to cut back the size of that majority and deliver more votes to the Libdems.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jun 13, 2024 7:26:15 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jun 13, 2024 6:56:29 GMT shevii said:

It's interesting how recent polls have seen Labour floating down significantly from what I always thought were unrealistic mid to high 40 levels. No party has ever achieved those sorts of vote share figures in recent times, not even landslide winners like Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.

Hiya crossbat11, so rather depressingly, Johnson in '19, received the largest vote share, 43.6%, since 1979 (Thatcher 43.9%).

[steve]

shevii

The Brexit referendum showed there's a reasonable supply of delusional xenophobes with little or no grasp of reality, however around half of these are still likely to vote Tory or in smaller numbers labour.

I suspect or at least hope the refuker max is around 20% which might win them 5 seats.

However as their fuhrer refuses to be held to personal account and the legacy media aren't prepared to call out this traitors links with the Putin regime and Trump cult robustly , if at all , those who vote for his party, overwhelmingly because they intrinsically don't like foreigners, or thinking, won't actually have a diddly about what they are voting for.

It's of course debatable if they would change their support if they did but at least the less hard of thinking majority would have some idea how dangerous these lunatics could be.

[steve]

"This goes against our own perceived wisdom and indeed that of the yougov poll"

And our own eyes and ears if we could be bothered to watch it.

[thylacine]

In reply to the Robotic question I would have liked Starmer to have said WTF mate.What do you expect! I'm carrying a priceless Ming vase here (accompanied by a )

[nickpoole]

Sky News pretty unanimous (apart from Cameron) that Starmer was solid and Sunak smashed into the barriers without seeming to know how to brake.

[steve]

shevii

"Several edits of my post to make it clearer what I was saying."

Overrated, keep them guessing, I often forget what I was saying while saying it.

[nickpoole]

We are about a third of the way through and so far for Sunak it’s been a prolonged car crash.

Would he better hiding in a fridge for next 4 weeks?

I’m on holiday last week in June and there’s the footie and then on 4 July I’ll vote Labour in Reigate and the 10 o clock exit poll will determine how late I stay up.

Then please god at last the madness of this car crash Government will be over

[neilj]

Say what you like about the tories, buttery were always known for having a superb election machine, that is no longer the case
www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/13/conservatives-grassroots-uk-election-campaign
The Conservative on-the-ground election campaign is descending into “disarray” amid a chronic lack of volunteers and strategy and an increasing sense of panic in formerly ultra-safe seats, insiders and opponents have told the Guardian.

Some areas have struggled to muster people to knock on doors and deliver leaflets due to a combination of a shrinking and ageing membership, a calamitous fall in the number of Conservative councillors and disillusionment with the election campaign

[neilj]

nickpoole
"We are about a third of the way through and so far for Sunak it’s been a prolonged car crash"

Agree with the thrust of your post, but were actually half way through, which makes it even worse for Sunak and the tories

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jun 12, 2024 21:38:57 GMT jimjam said:

Alec, as Lulu poses herself the 2-3% drop in Lab VI is most likely to do with some DKs deciding who to vote for a breaking substantially not for Labour (as one would expect as most of the DK voted Tory in 2019).

Coupled with 1-2% for tactical voting for LDs in their targets, some of which may be in polling by now - but not all I believe.

I always felt that around 40% (if anything just below) would be where Labour's vote share ends up due to these phenomenon; and I note others think a little above.

There is time but the Tories not gaining from these DK deciders is more of a surprise and I am even less convinced than I was a few days ago that they will reach 30%; although imo below 28% still unlikely.


Would be nice if meaningless if their vote share was below Labour's in 1983.

Hi jimjam, I tend to agree, although have always thought Labour would end up in the 41-43% range. So with polls coming as they are, Labour strategist will be getting a little edgy. Complacency mixed with a late rally of right wing inclined voters to the Tories could deprive them of an OM. The salience of '17 to me for this GE is different to what many others have cited. Starmers' campaign to do date echoes May's - basically cautious, attempting to maintain a large poll lead, KO campaigning in Tory held areas, robotic style etc. In '17, for a number of reasons the LoC vote rallied and coalesced around Labour, Labour still lost, but May's victory was a Pyrrhic one losing her OM. Its hard to see Starmer being politically nimble enough to deal with a similar surge in Tory support if it were to occur. FWIW, I do think Labour's VI is relatively firm, it wont leak to the Tories, but they are failing to attract large number of DK and leaking some voters to the Greens. 

To please Batty, I will use a kickieball analogy. Its half time and Labour are leading 3-1 after dominating the first half. As a team they have a history of throwing away leads, conceding early in the second half due to its defence going to sleep. Some fans are therefore nervous.

[nickpoole]

Jun 13, 2024 7:58:39 GMT neilj said:

nickpoole
"We are about a third of the way through and so far for Sunak it’s been a prolonged car crash"

Agree with the thrust of your post, but were actually half way through, which makes it even worse for Sunak and the tories

surely they will steady the ship? They seem to be in panic mode, making panic decisions. Bringing back Cameron was a pretty panicy start TBH

[nickpoole]

Jun 13, 2024 8:00:28 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Jun 12, 2024 21:38:57 GMT jimjam said:

To please Batty, I will use a kickieball analogy. Its half time and Labour are leading 3-1 after dominating the first half. As a team they have a history of throwing away leads, conceding early in the second half due to its defence going to sleep. Some fans are therefore nervous.

It's more like they are 4-0 up but the opposition has won a corner.

[neilj]

Jun 13, 2024 8:04:18 GMT nickpoole said:

Jun 13, 2024 8:00:28 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

To please Batty, I will use a kickieball analogy. Its half time and Labour are leading 3-1 after dominating the first half. As a team they have a history of throwing away leads, conceding early in the second half due to its defence going to sleep. Some fans are therefore nervous.

It's more like they are 4-0 up but the opposition has won a corner.

I would say more like 10 nil up and the opposition are talking about sacking the manager half way through the second half 😀

[crossbat11]

Jun 13, 2024 8:00:28 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Jun 12, 2024 21:38:57 GMT jimjam said:

Alec, as Lulu poses herself the 2-3% drop in Lab VI is most likely to do with some DKs deciding who to vote for a breaking substantially not for Labour (as one would expect as most of the DK voted Tory in 2019).

Coupled with 1-2% for tactical voting for LDs in their targets, some of which may be in polling by now - but not all I believe.

I always felt that around 40% (if anything just below) would be where Labour's vote share ends up due to these phenomenon; and I note others think a little above.

There is time but the Tories not gaining from these DK deciders is more of a surprise and I am even less convinced than I was a few days ago that they will reach 30%; although imo below 28% still unlikely.


Would be nice if meaningless if their vote share was below Labour's in 1983.

Hi jimjam, I tend to agree, although have always thought Labour would end up in the 41-43% range. So with polls coming as they are, Labour strategist will be getting a little edgy. Complacency mixed with a late rally of right wing inclined voters to the Tories could deprive them of an OM. The salience of '17 to me for this GE is different to what many others have cited. Starmers' campaign to do date echoes May's - basically cautious, attempting to maintain a large poll lead, KO campaigning in Tory held areas, robotic style etc. In '17, for a number of reasons the LoC vote rallied and coalesced around Labour, Labour still lost, but May's victory was a Pyrrhic one losing her OM. Its hard to see Starmer being politically nimble enough to deal with a similar surge in Tory support if it were to occur. FWIW, I do think Labour's VI is relatively firm, it wont leak to the Tories, but they are failing to attract large number of DK and leaking some voters to the Greens. 

To please Batty, I will use a kickieball analogy. Its half time and Labour are leading 3-1 after dominating the first half. As a team they have a history of throwing away leads, conceding early in the second half due to its defence going to sleep. Some fans are therefore nervous.

Doesn't help the nerves either, Lulu, if losing is hard wired into your history too. Fans always hoping for the best but fearing the worst. And those fears nearly always been realised.

My usual diplomacy and fair-mindedness will prevent me straying into any specific football club metaphors here!

Let's keep it political.

😀

[leftieliberal]

Jun 12, 2024 23:38:41 GMT robbiealive said:

Jun 12, 2024 20:11:47 GMT pjw1961 said:

Fuck feeling sorry for politicians. 

Victoria Derbyshire wouldn't agree with you. I’ve spent a lifetime interviewing politicians – trust me, they’re not all the same

Therefore can I make an appeal for a little tolerance? It’s mildly irritating when I see all that all members of one profession – say social workers, or bus drivers or even journalists are generally dismissed as worthless, so shall we stop doing it with politicians?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 12, 2024 22:46:53 GMT mercian said:

I think some of my lefty chums on here might appreciate this:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXxyDZRUTDQ

m.youtube.com/watch?v=s2n87YKSjrA

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jun 13, 2024 8:04:18 GMT nickpoole said:

Jun 13, 2024 8:00:28 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

To please Batty, I will use a kickieball analogy. Its half time and Labour are leading 3-1 after dominating the first half. As a team they have a history of throwing away leads, conceding early in the second half due to its defence going to sleep. Some fans are therefore nervous.

It's more like they are 4-0 up but the opposition has won a corner.

At their own end

[domjg]

I'd like to report the sighting of something very rare today. Tory election posters. Both on the outskirts of Winchester, a one time LD stronghold and almost nailed on gain for them. One was the old fashioned farmer's field poster on a main road and the other was a small one outside the gate of a rural house. Both un-mistakabely tory blue, none of the design of the current election leaflets that seeks to make candidates appear almost as independents.

[shevii]

Jun 13, 2024 7:39:18 GMT steve said:

shevii

The Brexit referendum showed there's a reasonable supply of delusional xenophobes with little or no grasp of reality, however around half of these are still likely to vote Tory or in smaller numbers labour.

I suspect or at least hope the refuker max is around 20% which might win them 5 seats.

However as their fuhrer refuses to be held to personal account and the legacy media aren't prepared to call out this traitors links with the Putin regime and Trump cult robustly , if at all , those who vote for his party, overwhelmingly because they intrinsically don't like foreigners, or thinking, won't actually have a diddly about what they are voting for.

It's of course debatable if they would change their support if they did but at least the less hard of thinking majority would have some idea how dangerous these lunatics could be.

For this election it is very good news for Labour with a split ROC vote, but as we are seeing with France and USA this Far/Farish right vote isn't going away and while there's been ebbs and flows based on events the Far right seems to be becoming more mainstream and respectable.

For now there's definitely a ceiling on the Reform (or Tories run by Farage for example) of 15% to 20% but if Reform do get 15% to 20% as the polls are starting to tell us they might, it's well up on the 12% they got in 2015 and you also have to note that Farage is number one in popularity of UK politicians in the last yougov tracker:

yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Nigel_Farage

I honestly believe there could be a serious threat from the extreme right, especially if Labour haven't made people feel their lives are getting significantly better in 5 years time, and if that threat comes from within the Tory Party with a completely new set of faces presenting a "reasonableness" to all of this then it becomes dangerous.  Farage let his mask slip after he'd got his brexit but up to that point he was still presenting a mostly "reasonable" image and that's where the danger lies.  People like the BNP and EDL never had that kind of discipline for very long before it became obvious they were just thugs.

[shevii]

Jun 13, 2024 8:07:07 GMT neilj said:

Jun 13, 2024 8:04:18 GMT nickpoole said:

I would say more like 10 nil up and the opposition are talking about sacking the manager half way through the second half 😀

Worked for Man United in the FA Cup final this year, although to be fair they weren't 10-0 down!

[crossbat11]

Jun 13, 2024 7:41:01 GMT steve said:

"This goes against our own perceived wisdom and indeed that of the yougov poll"

And our own eyes and ears if we could be bothered to watch it.

This brings me back to something that's always struck me about journalism and journalists, particularly those involved in churning out regular pieces almost by rote. This applies to both the written and broadcasting medium, I think, and particularly so to political reporting. Observational and polemical. The obligation to opine even if no opinion is naturally forthcoming. To waffle in other words, luxuriously and self-importantly. Intellectual onanism. Delight in contrarianism for contrarianism's sake. Simon Jenkins in the Guardian is an exponent of this sort of rather fatuous journalism

Stephen Fry, then a regular columnist for the Daily Mail, would you believe, said something revealing about this a while ago. He was obliged to produce a weekly column and confessed, some time after leaving the Mail, that he often had nothing of any value to say but, contractually, was obliged to churn something out. Which he duly did. Anything would do to fill the column space or, in Crerar and Stacey's podcast, airtime.

Accordingly, never underestimate the sheer volume of utter drivel that emanates from these allegedly great minds. They're paid to write and talk and the law of averages deems that they often have absolutely nothing of any value to say.

(A bit like me with this post but, there again, nobody's paying me apart from Mark's rather ungenerous annual stipendiary.)

[Rafwan]

crossbat11

I reckon the best answer to the “naughtiest moment” question would be something like “oooh, far too naughty to tell you about!!”.

[crossbat11]

Jun 13, 2024 8:48:20 GMT Rafwan said:

crossbat11

I reckon the best answer to the “naughtiest moment” question would be something like “oooh, far too naughty to tell you about!!”.

Maybe, but possibly a bit camp for the Lee Andersons of this world!

[eotw]

Jun 13, 2024 8:00:28 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Jun 12, 2024 21:38:57 GMT jimjam said:

To please Batty, I will use a kickieball analogy. Its half time and Labour are leading 3-1 after dominating the first half. As a team they have a history of throwing away leads, conceding early in the second half due to its defence going to sleep. Some fans are therefore nervous.

Stop talking about my club - Come on you Spurs

[domjg]

Jun 13, 2024 8:48:20 GMT Rafwan said:

crossbat11

I reckon the best answer to the “naughtiest moment” question would be something like “oooh, far too naughty to tell you about!!”.

The problem is that these stupid, vacuous questions are asked in the first place. It trivialises politics and politicians even further in the mind of the voter. Quite a an English thing, we love a bit of fluff and vacuous nonsense, dressed up as humour. You wouldn't see politicians being asked questions like that in Germany or the Netherlands in a million years. It would be seen as demeaning to all concerned.