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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 23:03:10 GMT
I usually like Beth Rigby but tonight she interrupted Starmer 5-10 seconds into his every answer, before going on to let Sunak finish most of his.
I don't agree that Sunak looks broken. He comes across as frustrated - no doubt annoyed that people don't seem to be receptive to his 'plan' - but not broken. Hopefully that's to come 🙂
His having a bad diet answer at the end was weird.
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Post by thylacine on Jun 12, 2024 23:17:56 GMT
I wonder how many days till Braverman launches the alternative Tory manifesto . As others have said Sunak looks like a finished man ,just hanging on grimly till the torture is over.
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 12, 2024 23:38:41 GMT
Ming vase safe! Starmer cool, calm, collected and even comfortable. More unusually he showed moments of what seemed genuine anger about the state the country has been left in by the government. Thrown by the question from the young man who said he had become more robotic though - no prepared sound bite on hand. Fuck feeling sorry for politicians. No one asked them to boss us around. Without wishing to sound too like Dave Spart (anyone under 70 can google who he is) his job is to preserve the existing wealth & power structure. His party is financed by the v wealthy, crooked Russian money, tax exiles, etc, who know that the Tories will never disturb their arrangements. Maybe people have finally got fed up with being told by the rich & powerful that they must tighten their belts & expect the public sphere will fall to bits. I will vote Labour but the Lib-Dems have better policies. Eg., New & restored national parks. Fab. Britain is tiny but it has a wonderful diversity of wildlife & habitats. So many species are in a terrifying decline, & no one does anything about it. C Packham is the most vocal & impressive spokes person for the cause & the right hate him. In the UK anyone who suggests there are alternatives to rural decline, current farming methods, urban pollution etc is shouted down. Take the hysterical reaction to LTNs which people in places where they exist seem to like. Other European countries can devise & implement policies of urban renewal with some sort of rational debate. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2024 0:26:46 GMT
More unusually he showed moments of what seemed genuine anger about the state the country has been left in by the government. Thrown by the question from the young man who said he had become more robotic though - no prepared sound bite on hand. Fuck feeling sorry for politicians. No one asked them to boss us around. Without wishing to sound too like Dave Spart (anyone under 70 can google who he is) his job is to preserve the existing wealth & power structure. His party is financed by the v wealthy, crooked Russian money, tax exiles, etc, who know that the Tories will never disturb their arrangements. Maybe people have finally got fed up with being told by the rich & powerful that they must tighten their belts & expect the public sphere will fall to bits. I will vote Labour but the Lib-Dems have better policies. Eg., New & restored national parks. Fab. Britain is tiny but it has a wonderful diversity of wildlife & habitats. So many species are in a terrifying decline, & no one does anything about it. C Packham is the most vocal & impressive spokes person for the cause & the right hate him. In the UK anyone who suggests there are alternatives to rural decline, current farming methods, urban pollution etc is shouted down. Take the hysterical reaction to LTNs which people in places where they exist seem to like. Other European countries can devise & implement policies of urban renewal with some sort of rational debate. Err, possibly mistaking Starmer for Sunak there? Not sure LAB is financed by the v wealthy, crooked Russian money, tax exiles etc. Agree with much of the rest of your post, btw. |
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Post by mercian on Jun 13, 2024 2:43:08 GMT
A couple of late-night thoughts before I turn in:
1) When if ever has a (presumably) next PM been a Knight? Possibly Eden? Too late to bother looking it up.
2) I've forgotten the other one. We shall all be the poorer for it. Time for bed.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 13, 2024 5:01:56 GMT
Among all the anti Tory tide, lululemonmustdobetter points out a polling factor that would have been huge in any other election; Labour's vote appears to have slipped by quite a few points, according to a number of pollsters. This doesn't appear to have helped Cons, and the general sense is that nothing will. It may also be indicating more about the Lib Dem manifesto launch, along with the Greens getting some attention with a decent launch themselves, or it may equally just be the froth coming off an unfeasibly large Labour tally in the early polls. Labour should take nothing for granted though. Take of a massive majority isn't helpful to them, and another 2 - 3% drop and things start to get more interesting. One nightmare scenario would be the RoC voters deciding to abandon Sunak en masse, seeing the success of Reform in the polls, and back Farage's lot, closing the gap on Labour. Unlikely, at this point, but...voters should never be taken for granted. Yes, but you have to take Into consideration that YouGov and More in Common have both changed their methodology which they say themselves tends to depress the Labour lead/vote Pollsters who have introduced methodological changes - date and effect on Labour lead: More in Common, June 5-7, -4 points YouGov, June 3-4, -6 points |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jun 13, 2024 5:04:18 GMT
When asked what he had gone without, Sunak initially tried to avoid the question more than once with his “lots of things” non-answer. It was only when he realised this wasn’t PMQs and that he was being tied down here, and he’d have to say something, anything, that you could all but see see the cogs whirring. In a
supreme effort the best he could come up with was Sky TV. 😐😆 He might just as well have said “a pony”, the poor, deprived little lamb.
My far-less-political-than-me wife laughed out loud when she saw the clip on the news. I suspect that was the reaction of many of even the less partisan.
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Post by pete on Jun 13, 2024 5:18:13 GMT
I'm not sure I subscribe to the never forgive mentality though. I would doubt that anyone who worked on and edited the Sun 35 years ago is still with the newspaper and beyond Murdoch's long fingered ownership, doesn't the Sun as its now comprised deserve a second chance?
The people working there may have changed, but the ethos of the ... I hesitate to call it a newspaper ... certainly hasn't.
Speaking as someone who has probably spent more Saturday afternoons than anyone on this forum at Premier League grounds, what has struck me is how rooted in the community both Liverpool clubs are.
Hillsborough is still very raw on the terraces of both Anfield and Goodison Park.
And then you've over 760 injured (always seems to be forgotten, the amount injured) And then thousands suffering from Psychological trauma/survivors guilt. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 5:27:05 GMT
Bad news for sunak, or maybe he was already expecting it and thats why he called the election. US FED says it will only cut interest rates once this year. So since the BofE is required to copy it, nor will we. fed is basically warning the US to stop expecting any significant fall in interest rates. This follows a failure of inflation to fall as had been anticipated.
Raised interest rates had little chance of halting inflation caused by the fuel prices soaring, following the covid shutdown of the industry and then the resumption indeed surge in demand as industry got going again. Interview suggests the knock on inflation feeding through is now growing in the US, which is worrying the FED. Unfortunately this may not apply in other places such as the UK where we might be teetering on recession.
Interviewee observed that other countries basically just have to copy the FED to safeguard their currencies from capital flight. Whatever this might do to growth.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jun 13, 2024 6:08:00 GMT
Yougov on private school fees
Do you think private school fees should or should not be taxed? [Feb 2023]
They should: 56%
They should not: 18%
Even among tory voters 47% think they should be taxed against 28% they shouldn't
Labour voters - 71% think they should be taxed against 8% they shouldn't
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 6:17:35 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 6:28:01 GMT
I do wonder if there might be some truth in this fake picture. Sunak has always lived in an above average wealth environment, which just soared as he got older. Its just fallen into his lap. It might explain why he so much believes in tax cuts rather than delivering services. Sure, tax cuts funded by delivering poorer services is absolutely a core tory policy ever since 'Thatcher, Thatcher milk snatcher'. But I'm not sure to what extent it has ever been an election winner. Thatcher used industrial unrest as a cause, massive electoral bribes in the form of giving away state assets, had a second term on the back of the Falklands victory, north sea oil. And then cameron needed his own cause, which was euroscepticism and then the EU membership referendum to get him over the line to a majority. nb, I just looked up just how much north sea oil revenues have been and the answer seems to be peaking about £10 billion a year, in 1984. Since the real value of the pound has fallen hugely since then what with all the intervening inflation, that was a much bigger proportion of the entire UK government budget then than now (maybe 5%) and equivalent to £60bn revenue now. Aside from direct revenue, there will have been all the employment generated in developing the oil fields, and indirect revenue from that. I see actual cash terms numbers are rather difficult to find, but the cash government budget seems to have grown x6 since 1984. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 6:29:43 GMT
neiljFee charging schools have on average more than doubled their fees since 2010 a real term increase approaching 50% and yet the mass exodus of students to the state sector hasn't happened. When Sunakered attended Winchester college in 1991 the fees were already in excess of £10,000 per year, the cost of Sky tv when it was introduced in 1990 was around £199 , there was no subscription charges you just paid for the installation.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 6:34:23 GMT
When asked what he had gone without, Sunak initially tried to avoid the question more than once with his “lots of things” non-answer. It was only when he realised this wasn’t PMQs and that he was being tied down here, and he’d have to say something, anything, that you could all but see see the cogs whirring. In a supreme effort the best he could come up with was Sky TV. 😐😆 He might just as well have said “a pony”, the poor, deprived little lamb. My far-less-political-than-me wife laughed out loud when she saw the clip on the news. I suspect that was the reaction of many of even the less partisan. Was it his "running through wheat fields" moment? An answer so anodyne, and probably false too, that it betrayed a sort of inner blandness. Not entirely untypical for modern politicians who appear fearful, or incapable, of saying anything remotely interesting or revealing about themselves. The problem is that the guardedness often invokes the ridicule where frankness and openness might instead gain respect. I noticed Starmer swerved Rigby's question inviting him to reveal something about himself that belied his boring image. He just recited a scripted and robotic passage about his commitment to public service. Maybe it's just me but I would have had much more respect for Sunak if he just admitted to his enormously privileged and comfortable background. I mean, it's not his fault he was born into it, is it? Why try to be something you're clearly not. The falsity is obvious and self-defeating. Nobody buys it and everyone sees through it. Wouldn't it have been great for Theresa May to have said that her naughtiest moment was having an affair with the married son of a vicar and for Starmer to have confessed to having a number of disowned children. Didn't seem to have ever done Boris Johnson any harm. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 6:36:50 GMT
Dave As a small child like Sunakered I was deprived of Sky tv, because it hadn't been introduced yet. I was also deprived of the internet, mobile phones and the premier league, for similar reasons. My step sister did actually have a pony as my father and his then wife lived on a farm and the animal sort of came with it and I did learn to drive a 🚜 by the age of ten.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 6:37:22 GMT
Yougov on private school fees Do you think private school fees should or should not be taxed? [Feb 2023] They should: 56% They should not: 18% Even among tory voters 47% think they should be taxed against 28% they shouldn't Labour voters - 71% think they should be taxed against 8% they shouldn't Conservative voters, which is presumably labour's concern, 36% taxed, 24% untaxed. Labour never paid any attention to the massive majority of its voters who wanted to remain in the EU! yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/should-uk-private-schoold-be-exempt-from-tax?crossBreak=conservative |
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Post by thylacine on Jun 13, 2024 6:41:45 GMT
What's wrong with being boring and robotic as long as your hearts in the right place. We've seen the damage a charismatic ,all singing ,all dancing clown can do.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 6:45:48 GMT
I did learn to drive a 🚜 by the age of ten. That would be illegal now wouldnt it? Likely if the authorities discovered this now, they would be sending round child protection services to see if your parents were abusing you and no longer fit to continue as parents? Do you think your kids (grandkids) should be able to learn tractor driving aged ten? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 13, 2024 6:51:55 GMT
What's wrong with being boring and robotic as long as your hearts in the right place. We've seen the damage a charismatic ,all singing ,all dancing clown can make. I agree. I was arguing for a bit of authenticity that I probably know will never come in our mercilessly scrutinised and increasingly puerile political world. To be candid about oneself is probably to end your career. A shame, but there you have it. It could well be too that politics doesn't attract what I would call people with colourful personalities and back stories. Maybe it's our fault in the end as voters. We sort of don't seem to allow it. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 6:56:10 GMT
Danny
It's not illegal to lean to drive as a child it's illegal to drive a car on a public road under 17, I was driving a car by the age of 12 and passed my driving test a week after my seventeenth birthday, it saved a fortune.
It was incredibly helpful to have over 400 acres of land and lanes to practice on.
I should emphasise we didn't own this the MOD did we just rented a house there.
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Post by shevii on Jun 13, 2024 6:56:29 GMT
Election Maps UK
@electionmapsuk
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 39% (-7)
CON: 19% (-1)
RFM: 17% (+3)
LDM: 10% (+2)
Via
@peoplepolling
, 11-12 Jun.
Changes w/ 16 May.
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Post by alec on Jun 13, 2024 7:00:16 GMT
thylacine - "What's wrong with being boring and robotic as long as your hearts in the right place." I'll remember that next time sometime complains about my covid posts..... 
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 13, 2024 7:03:37 GMT
shevii Wow fptp had to put those figures through electoral calculus , again the Labour party received an absurd 75%+ of the seats from less than 40% of the vote and the lib dems and the Tories are fighting it out for second place on around 65 each refuk win 3!
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Post by thylacine on Jun 13, 2024 7:05:55 GMT
thylacine - "What's wrong with being boring and robotic as long as your hearts in the right place." I'll remember that next time sometime complains about my covid posts..... I don't complain about them because they're boring and robotic,but because they don't belong here and selfishly dominate discourse at times.Nice tease though |
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Post by barbara on Jun 13, 2024 7:08:01 GMT
He sort of gave a wry smile acknowledging the impossibility of answering that which I thought was actually quite genuine and human and therefore the best response he could make I saw the clip. The answer probably was I'm appalled by what is going with this government & I'm determined, grimly determined, to get Labour into power. It's also frustrating not being able to determine policy or bring my ideas into play. It's a serious business & I'm a serious politician. If we gain power you can judgae whther my resolute focus was worth it. Sound bite. Dunno. "It's a tough job. I have responisbility without power. Anyway they say the future is Robot & I was just making sure I fitted in." Starmer recently has looked v confodent at PMQs, less so now, & ditto Sunak, who can get away with avoding the PMQ questions, bolstered by the roars behind him & looked a chastened in the Immigration clip. Modern politicians are v odd & faced with ordinary people they are bound to look a bit awkward and out of place. Anyway the spotty youth had written his response to Starmer. I think he should have said something like: 'If I was a private citizen and you and I were having a pint in the pub I'm confident you wouldn't think I was robotlike. But I'm not. I'm a public figure who is speaking not just for myself but for members of the public who want he Labour Party to win the election, for my party, for my colleagues and my constituents. And the press are just waiting for me to misspeak or say something they can get outraged about (as we have seen recently). So I have to weigh my words carefully. And I accept that makes me more robotlike than, I can assure you, I really am. ' |
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Post by shevii on Jun 13, 2024 7:12:28 GMT
Yougov tables have finally come out for that poll earlier in the week: yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/issue/Voting_IntentionThe weird thing is that with the core theory being that Tory 2019 don't knows were moving to Reform, Tory don't knows were 18% two polls ago and they are still 16%. The raw 2019 Tory VI has gone from 38 to 32 over the three polls. I know there will be churn within the figures and weighting and this could be an outlier anyway but taken at face value that Reform increase is down to Con 2019 changing their minds not Con 2019 don't knows making up their minds. Several edits of my post to make it clearer what I was saying. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 7:13:15 GMT
Alec, as Lulu poses herself the 2-3% drop in Lab VI is most likely to do with some DKs deciding who to vote for a breaking substantially not for Labour (as one would expect as most of the DK voted Tory in 2019). Coupled with 1-2% for tactical voting for LDs in their targets, some of which may be in polling by now - but not all I believe. I always felt that around 40% (if anything just below) would be where Labour's vote share ends up due to these phenomenon; and I note others think a little above. There is time but the Tories not gaining from these DK deciders is more of a surprise and I am even less convinced than I was a few days ago that they will reach 30%; although imo below 28% still unlikely. For two years now we have been talking about when the swing back to con will begin as a real election approaches. It hasnt happened. Its still not happening with three weeks to go. This election is about loss of faith in the conservative government. Cameron right now on R4 being asked about con failed promises. Like, cameron is spokesperson of the day! I mentioned this before, there must be two types of 'don't know'. Those who wholly dont know who to vote vote for, and those who are certain they will not vote for party x, but dont know what they will do instead. I suspect the reasons lab and con support are both falling are now different. Lab losing support because they are certain to win and so voters can safely cast a vote for a party they actually like as a gesture of support. This group may have a corollary, those who would have voted con but since they are guaranteed to lose are now free to support someone they actually prefer. Another the group who hate con and want to do it the greatest possible harm, including those who by now must be seriously considering the best tactical vote to make in their constituency circumstances and deciding accordingly.
The obvious risk for con is all those who dont think it right wing enough switching to reform in a protest against con being too left. It no longer makes any difference to the result, despite con's absurd confusion of the constitutions of the US and UK. Con may even have encouraged this with their campaign arguing any vote not for them is a vote for lab, by raising the question what is the real meaning of a vote for an also ran party. Voters might think actually they do not want to register moral support for what con have done.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jun 13, 2024 7:20:33 GMT
The glaring hole in UK taxation is low taxes on capital growth so that people able to take their income as capital growth are taxed less than people who work for a living paying income tax.
But accompanying this are the rules on inheritance tax, where it is possible to leave an unlimited amount untaxed to anyone you please, just so long as you do it as a gift more than 7 years before you die. Leave £100 bn to your best mate, no problem.. so long as you plan ahead. And if you have wealth on that scale, then handing over control of your hundreds of millions with a reasonable safety margin before you die will not leave you short of spending money for the rest of your life.
Essentially there is no reason for billionairs to pay inheritance tax. Or even multi millionairs. Thats pretty insane as a policy.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 13, 2024 7:21:49 GMT
Local government by-elections, with two being in Scotland.
GREENWICH LBC; Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham (Con died)
Candidates:
ABBATE, Ulysse Lucien (Liberal Democrat)
SIMPSON, Mark George (Reform UK)
STRATFORD, Matt (Green)
TESTER, Roger (Conservative)
THURLOW, Nikki (Labour)
2022: Lab 1916 (elected), 1836, 1734; Con 1894 (elected), 1846 (elected), 1748; LD 399; RefUK 149
Very close split ward in 2022, as can be seen above. The Conservatives vote is holding up better in local elections than national polling, and Labour are the 'establishment' here, as they control the council, but you would still expect a Labour gain given the current state of politics.
HIGHLAND UA; Tain & Easter Ross (Ind died)
Candidates:
ALLISON, Gordon (SNP)
BARNETT, Andrew (Green)
CHRISTIAN, Harry (Scottish Libertarian)
COHEN, Barbara (Liberal Democrat)
DUNDAS, Laura (Independent)
SHEARER, John (Independent)
SHORT, Eva (Conservative)
Sep 23by: Ind 1022 (elected); LD 603; SNP 464; Con 207; Lab 88; Grn 56; Libtn 23 (Ind gain from LD)
2022: SNP 1051 (elected); LD 739 (elected); Ind 726 (elected); Ind 554; Con 364
As ever in the Highlands much depends on the personal vote of the Independents of which I have no knowledge. Assuming one is up to the mark an Independent hold is most likely.
WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE UA; Clydebank Central (Ind elected as Lab resigned)
Candidates:
HENNEBRY, Fiona (Labour)
HENNEBRY, Nathan (Communist Party of Britain)
McGINNIGLE, Ewan (Conservative)
MUIR, Andrew Joseph (Independent)
PYPER, Kai Robert Murray (Liberal Democrat)
SCANLAN, Marina (SNP)
WILSON, Kelly (Sovereignty)
2022: SNP 1903, 531 (both elected); Lab 1199, 645 (both elected); Con 366
On the face of it the SNP's best shot at winning something since May 2023, although the top SNP candidate was a long way ahead of their second one. Anyway it's an SNP/Labour shootout and Labour is probably best placed to pick up transfers.
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Post by barbara on Jun 13, 2024 7:21:51 GMT
What's wrong with being boring and robotic as long as your hearts in the right place. We've seen the damage a charismatic ,all singing ,all dancing clown can make. I agree. I was arguing for a bit of authenticity that I probably know will never come in our mercilessly scrutinised and increasingly puerile political world. To be candid about oneself is probably to end your career. A shame, but there you have it. It could well be too that politics doesn't attract what I would call people with colourful personalities and back stories. Maybe it's our fault in the end as voters. We sort of don't seem to allow it. I thought Starmer's most genuine and one of his best answers was to the question 'If you become PM what is your greatest fear?' and his answer was for his family and specifically his children. He wanted them to remain anonymous and live their own lives which is why he doesn't name them and they are never photographed. Also it was a nice touch when he said that when he retired from DPP his wife was circling lawyer jobs in the paper but he wanted to enter partliamnet and continue in public service. He said it would have been easier to earn very good money as a lawyer but he didn't want to do it. When Rigby asked if his wife didn't want him to do it he laughed and said,'No she didnt! ' I htought all of that was very human. |
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