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Post by jen on Jun 12, 2024 20:22:38 GMT
I have zero sympathy for either Sunak or the Tory party but watching him being sliced and diced into tiny little bits by Beth Rigby was actually quite painful. I'd love to see that lying fraud Farage treated in the same manner, but he dodges anything difficult. I know exactly what you mean. I wanted to gloat, but I was too embarrassed for him. And yes, it would be nice if the Hitler-apologist got some proper scrutiny, rather than been given a free run by his Question Time lackeys. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 20:24:49 GMT
snap poll Sunak 36% Starmer 64% Viewers. 1,800 or so I think they said. |
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Post by bendo on Jun 12, 2024 20:29:06 GMT
Is this the overall quality of Sky News? This production is awful, the input of the moronic woman from the Daily Mail is awful. I thought the BBC was bad but bloody hell. Tempted to turn off now. Upon reflection the main content wasnt too bad, just the build up was terrible. Didn't bother with the post questions bit. |
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Post by peterbell on Jun 12, 2024 20:31:41 GMT
snap poll Sunak 36% Starmer 64% Not sure Lululemon. |
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Post by EmCat on Jun 12, 2024 20:32:53 GMT
There have been poor general election campaigns before the Tories in 2017 Labour and the liberal democrats in 2019 , recent examples but rarely have we been given the opportunity to witness such an industrial grade clustershambles as the Sunakered sunk effort at self immolation, it's not so much a skip fire as an entire oil terminal. youtu.be/MqV6H5SN_3o?si=o4E9ldo9Oqd1RJcuThat made me chortle. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 12, 2024 20:33:54 GMT
I have zero sympathy for either Sunak or the Tory party but watching him being sliced and diced into tiny little bits by Beth Rigby was actually quite painful. I'd love to see that lying fraud Farage treated in the same manner, but he dodges anything difficult. I know exactly what you mean. I wanted to gloat, but I was too embarrassed for him. And yes, it would be nice if the Hitler-apologist got some proper scrutiny, rather than been given a free run by his Question Time lackeys. Eddie Mair did get Farage once, as he did Boris Johnson as well a couple of times, cutting through the bluster ("you're a nasty piece of work") www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kfWxmegjtYwww.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAxA-9D4X3o |
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Post by RAF on Jun 12, 2024 20:37:41 GMT
I know exactly what you mean. I wanted to gloat, but I was too embarrassed for him. And yes, it would be nice if the Hitler-apologist got some proper scrutiny, rather than been given a free run by his Question Time lackeys. Eddie Mair did get Farage once, as he did Boris Johnson as well a couple of times, cutting through the bluster ("you're a nasty piece of work") www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kfWxmegjtYwww.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAxA-9D4X3oAndrew Neil skewered Johnson once too. That's what led Boris to steer well away from him in 2019, despite having promised to appear. |
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Post by thylacine on Jun 12, 2024 20:45:34 GMT
Ming vase safe! Starmer cool, calm, collected and even comfortable. More unusually he showed moments of what seemed genuine anger about the state the country has been left in by the government. Thrown by the question from the young man who said he had become more robotic though - no prepared sound bite on hand. He sort of gave a wry smile acknowledging the impossibility of answering that which I thought was actually quite genuine and human and therefore the best response he could make |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 20:56:14 GMT
Our local philanthropic family in Braintree were the Courtauld family. They were Huguenots (French Calvinist refugees from persecution of their faith in that country) and establish textile mills in the town. They got rich themselves in the process, and kept a good deal of it, but they also endowed a hospital, public gardens, a theatre, and assorted other public buildings, which they didn't have to and obviously many wealthy people don't. I worked there too, in Coventry. It used to take 3 buses and two trains to get there and I only both left home and arrived home in daylight for about 5 weeks in the year. Well, I hope your wife believed you. |
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Post by peterbell on Jun 12, 2024 20:57:52 GMT
You Gov polling indicating that 1/3 of 2019 Tories polled after the debate said that Starmer won.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 21:00:16 GMT
Both Sophie & Sam Coates reckon that Sunak looked crestfallen and washed out by the end Well, Rosie, Daisie and myself went for for our evening constitutional (never understood that word actually) while the programme was on but, on our return, agreed that Sunak had been utter rubbish and Keir had been brilliant. |
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Post by jen on Jun 12, 2024 21:07:44 GMT
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Post by alec on Jun 12, 2024 21:15:22 GMT
Among all the anti Tory tide, lululemonmustdobetter points out a polling factor that would have been huge in any other election; Labour's vote appears to have slipped by quite a few points, according to a number of pollsters. This doesn't appear to have helped Cons, and the general sense is that nothing will. It may also be indicating more about the Lib Dem manifesto launch, along with the Greens getting some attention with a decent launch themselves, or it may equally just be the froth coming off an unfeasibly large Labour tally in the early polls. Labour should take nothing for granted though. Take of a massive majority isn't helpful to them, and another 2 - 3% drop and things start to get more interesting. One nightmare scenario would be the RoC voters deciding to abandon Sunak en masse, seeing the success of Reform in the polls, and back Farage's lot, closing the gap on Labour. Unlikely, at this point, but...voters should never be taken for granted. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jun 12, 2024 21:17:17 GMT
snap poll Sunak 36% Starmer 64% I think it may have been the universe, lulu |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jun 12, 2024 21:20:30 GMT
I haven't studied any of these snap post debate polls, but Mark McGeoghegan has -
"I don't think snap, post-debate polls are worthless. But I'd like much more transparency around recruitment methods given how routinely the samples have demographic differences that correlate with their headline results!"
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Post by alec on Jun 12, 2024 21:23:21 GMT
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Post by johntel on Jun 12, 2024 21:23:23 GMT
Number of individual constituencies where party is currently favourite to win, according to oddschecker:
Labour 435
Conservatives 120
Liberal Democrats 51
SNP 16
Sinn Fein 7
DUP 6
Plaid Cymru 5
SDLP 2
Green 2
Alliance 1
Independent 1
UUP 1
Reform 1
Unknown 2
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Post by thylacine on Jun 12, 2024 21:29:51 GMT
Was that the studio audience or viewers? I think it may have been the universe, lulu The Universe definitely has it in for Sunak. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 21:35:51 GMT
Among all the anti Tory tide, lululemonmustdobetter points out a polling factor that would have been huge in any other election; Labour's vote appears to have slipped by quite a few points, according to a number of pollsters. This doesn't appear to have helped Cons, and the general sense is that nothing will. It may also be indicating more about the Lib Dem manifesto launch, along with the Greens getting some attention with a decent launch themselves, or it may equally just be the froth coming off an unfeasibly large Labour tally in the early polls. Labour should take nothing for granted though. Take of a massive majority isn't helpful to them, and another 2 - 3% drop and things start to get more interesting. One nightmare scenario would be the RoC voters deciding to abandon Sunak en masse, seeing the success of Reform in the polls, and back Farage's lot, closing the gap on Labour. Unlikely, at this point, but...voters should never be taken for granted. Spot on IMO, alec. |
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Post by eor on Jun 12, 2024 21:38:01 GMT
Feels like by "surging" Krugman is taking quite a long view - the trend in 2024 itself seems to be fairly flat? So it's hard to see why it would make this a better issue for Biden now (or likely to be by November) than it was at the start of the year. |
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Post by jimjam on Jun 12, 2024 21:38:57 GMT
Alec, as Lulu poses herself the 2-3% drop in Lab VI is most likely to do with some DKs deciding who to vote for a breaking substantially not for Labour (as one would expect as most of the DK voted Tory in 2019).
Coupled with 1-2% for tactical voting for LDs in their targets, some of which may be in polling by now - but not all I believe.
I always felt that around 40% (if anything just below) would be where Labour's vote share ends up due to these phenomenon; and I note others think a little above.
There is time but the Tories not gaining from these DK deciders is more of a surprise and I am even less convinced than I was a few days ago that they will reach 30%; although imo below 28% still unlikely.
Would be nice if meaningless if their vote share was below Labour's in 1983.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 12, 2024 22:00:29 GMT
It would be difficult to imagine anything other than a Labour landslide with around 40% of the votes holding around 80% of the seats.
To be honest the only parliamentary issue is just how catastrophic the Tory defeat is.
If the Tories end up with around 120-150 seats we can expect them to elect some utterly delusional far right nutter as leader and there will be a farce when it comes to holding the government to account when the reality denying clown show frantically tries to rewrite history and inflame the trumpian extremes, this delusional shambles would happily bring the frog faced hate gimp on board quite conceivably as leader.
Alternatively the Tories collapse could be so extreme that it's the lib dems that sit as the official opposition in parliament in the few seats not occupied by the inflated Labourites.
At least PMQ's could be more constructive and the legacy media couldn't focus all their energies normalizing far right nationalist insanity.
Interesting times.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 12, 2024 22:07:36 GMT
Number of individual constituencies where party is currently favourite to win, according to oddschecker: Labour 435 Conservatives 120 Liberal Democrats 51 SNP 16 Sinn Fein 7 DUP 6 Plaid Cymru 5 SDLP 2 Green 2 Alliance 1 Independent 1 UUP 1 Reform 1 Unknown 2 Not far off current polling - so proving punters can read polls  |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 12, 2024 22:15:51 GMT
It's difficult to avoid feeling sympathy for the hapless Sunakered, he's clearly out of his depth. Actually on second thoughts it's not remotely difficult he and his entire bunch of brexitanian luddite crooks deserve everything they get.  |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Jun 12, 2024 22:19:23 GMT
Among all the anti Tory tide, lululemonmustdobetter points out a polling factor that would have been huge in any other election; Labour's vote appears to have slipped by quite a few points, according to a number of pollsters. This doesn't appear to have helped Cons, and the general sense is that nothing will. It may also be indicating more about the Lib Dem manifesto launch, along with the Greens getting some attention with a decent launch themselves, or it may equally just be the froth coming off an unfeasibly large Labour tally in the early polls. Labour should take nothing for granted though. Take of a massive majority isn't helpful to them, and another 2 - 3% drop and things start to get more interesting. One nightmare scenario would be the RoC voters deciding to abandon Sunak en masse, seeing the success of Reform in the polls, and back Farage's lot, closing the gap on Labour. Unlikely, at this point, but...voters should never be taken for granted. In 1997 the Labour lead over the Conservatives dropped very considerably during the campaign (27% on 1 April, result on 1 May 12.5%), however the main beneficiaries were not the Conservatives, who only gained 2.7% (28% to 30.7%) but the Liberal Democrats (11% to 16.8%) and others (6% to 9.3%). The reasons are two fold: (a) publicity - between elections the media concentrate on the two main parties and asked who they want to vote for to remove an unpopular government people choose the main opposition; at an election they are reminded there are other options as more air time is given to other parties. (b) tactical voting. Again between elections people cite the main opposition; at elections they are reminded there may be a better tactical option in their constituency. The Labour vote going down if the main beneficiaries are the Lib Dems in seats where they are the main challengers is actually bad news for the Tories. |
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Post by eor on Jun 12, 2024 22:19:33 GMT
pjw1961 My point was it's the first post conviction opportunity for a large electorate to cast their votes rather than polling. Alas the electorate don't seem to have taken up the invitation - with almost everything counted then turnout seems to be somewhere around 10%, or about 1/5th of what it was for the mid-terms in 2022. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio%27s_6th_congressional_district#Recent_election_resultsDon't think you can read anything much into that beyond who won! |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 12, 2024 22:22:28 GMT
It would take a heart of stone not to be moved.  |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jun 12, 2024 22:41:31 GMT
I met up with a mate tonight for our habitual midweek evening tipple, so only saw the first hour or so of tonight's Sky News leader interviews. I had to leave as Starmer was nearing the end of his audience grilling.
I thought he handled Rigby's constant interruptions quite well in the set piece interview, if a little stiffly,and had obviously been rehearsed by his team to not allow himself to be stopped in his tracks as he was last week by Etchingham. It sort of worked for him, but I thought he overdid it and, at times, appeared to be conducting his own interview with himself, ignoring Rigby completely.
He also allowed his facial expressions to betray his inner frustrations. This doesn't always look great on camera close up shots!
I was almost shouting at the screen; "Loosen up man!". But maybe that just isn't him. I thought he slowly improved and was much better handling the audience questions.
I didn't see the Sunak section at all but I've had lots of opinions offered to me via texts, social media platforms and also posts on this forum. I've seen some edited highlights too.
He looks an utterly broken man to me. This already elongated campaign, with three weeks still left to run, has the potential to get increasingly painful for Sunak.
I fear this thing could become a horrible spectacle and we may witness a personal ordeal so excruciating that anyone with a shred of humanity would want it to stop.
Let's fast forward it to when we can vote and end it all. For Sunak's sake.
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Post by mercian on Jun 12, 2024 22:46:53 GMT
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Post by robbiealive on Jun 12, 2024 23:00:38 GMT
More unusually he showed moments of what seemed genuine anger about the state the country has been left in by the government. Thrown by the question from the young man who said he had become more robotic though - no prepared sound bite on hand. He sort of gave a wry smile acknowledging the impossibility of answering that which I thought was actually quite genuine and human and therefore the best response he could make I saw the clip. The answer probably was I'm appalled by what is going with this government & I'm determined, grimly determined, to get Labour into power. It's also frustrating not being able to determine policy or bring my ideas into play. It's a serious business & I'm a serious politician. If we gain power you can judgae whther my resolute focus was worth it. Sound bite. Dunno. "It's a tough job. I have responisbility without power. Anyway they say the future is Robot & I was just making sure I fitted in." Starmer recently has looked v confodent at PMQs, less so now, & ditto Sunak, who can get away with avoding the PMQ questions, bolstered by the roars behind him & looked a chastened in the Immigration clip. Modern politicians are v odd & faced with ordinary people they are bound to look a bit awkward and out of place. Anyway the spotty youth had written his response to Starmer. |
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