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Post by leftieliberal on May 22, 2024 21:49:37 GMT
AFAIK all our candidates have been selected, because we had assumed that the general election could be on the same day as the locals. What I don't know is the total number of candidates we plan to stand or whether we will have a pact with the Greens and Plaid Cymru as in 2019. Greens have said they are standing in every seat and not doing pacts. Whether they miss a few seats through some hiccup remains to be seen. I believe reform are supposed to be contesting every seat as well but I have a few doubts that they will get their act together for this- probably still relying on mercian standing :-) . (Leeroy Jenkins is (was) a person in a World of Warcraft online game who did something really stupid) One other victim of Leeroy Sunak (see what I did there) is Reform UK. As Duncan Robinson noted in this fabulous Bagehot column, Reform UK aren’t really a political party in the normal scheme of things. They are a brand, some money, a couple of identifiablish leaders (Tice and Ben Habib), a really identifiable founder but not (yet) leader (Farage), and a bizarre grab-bag of parliamentary candidates, the selection process for whom has a sort of Dirty Dozen quality (or Dodgeball for younger readers).
I suspect, given the problems Reform UK were already having in removing candidates who had made racist comments, advocated setting wolves on people in cities, or were simply dead, that Tice and company will not be able to stand MPs in every constituency with such a short time until election.
The question is, faced with no Reform candidate, how will people who said they support them vote. The Greens stood in 476 constituencies in 2017 when there was no pact, so maybe 4-500. 632 doesn't sound believable. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 22, 2024 21:57:22 GMT
@pjw Let's go for an outlier Labour. 483 Tory 57 Lib Dems. 68 Greens. 2 SNP 18 Refuk 0 PC. 4 N I 18 Just heard the ITV news, where their resident pundit was explaining labour has a huge mountain to climb to get a majority at all. Unprecedented swings needed to do that. I was a little bemused why he said that. We all seem to be agreed that currently polling shows labour with a stonking lead, maybe not as much as you sugest here, but still a Blair style landslide. We have all looked for indicators of this lead faltering and they simply have not happened. Curtis on Newsnight seems to think everything on track for a good labour win, and if Sunak were to win he would be lauded as a miracle worker. Rather more in line with our thinking. So do we all still believe the polling actually has a predictive value, or might people have saved their money and asked mystic meg instead, or checked their tea leaves? |
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Post by James E on May 22, 2024 22:00:35 GMT
@pjw Let's go for an outlier Labour. 483 Tory 57 Lib Dems. 68 Greens. 2 SNP 18 Refuk 0 PC. 4 N I 18 What have you been smoking steve?!  I had a go at working out what kind of percentage votes could produce those seat figures. Using a largely proportional swing model, and factoring in tactical voting, I get figures which look pretty much like current polling - Lab 45% Con 23% LD 11% Ref 9% Green 6% Others, inc SNP & PC 6% The crucial figure for the sort of figures Steve has guessed is the Tory VI. If it really is barely half of the 45% they received in 2019, they would be likely to go well below 100 seats. But at around 28%, they could expect in the region of 125. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 22, 2024 22:01:20 GMT
Ok, here's my guess. I was originally predicting a Labour majority of between 10 and 40, at a time when many had doubt about Labour managing more than largest party. However that was pre-Truss and JamesE has persuaded me with the non-uniform swings evident in the polling. Therefore:
Lab 406
Con 158
LD 35
SNP 28
PC 3
Green 1 (Brighton Pavilion)
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18 (I don't follow the trends in Irish politics closely enough to split that)
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 22, 2024 22:01:38 GMT
And incidentally, who now believes it was utterly not a coincidence that the election was called on the same day Craig Mackinley made his return to the commons, plucky conservative fighter showing off what the conservative managed NHS can do?
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Post by mercian on May 22, 2024 22:09:00 GMT
The question is, faced with no Reform candidate, how will people who said they support them vote. A lot of them probably won't, since Reform is essentially a rejection of all mainstream parties. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 22, 2024 22:11:06 GMT
James EI got those figures based on a Tory vote share around 24% ,a bit better than average , Labour on 43% , a little lower than average. The lib dems on 13%, well I would wouldn't I Refuk on a more realistic 8% and greens on 5%. Mix in some tactical voting and there she blows😁 It's an outlier but frankly plausible based on current polling. I suspect the legacy media are trying to portray a close race for rating reasons, I also am entirely certain that they won't admit to talking cobblers in the highly likely event of a landslide win.
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Post by bedknobsandboomstick on May 22, 2024 22:11:18 GMT
Going off putting some perfectly reasonable figures into Electoral Calculus (44/26), I say:
Lab 405
Con 108
LD 50
SNP 19
PC 3
Gre 2
Bloody hell.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 22, 2024 22:12:14 GMT
steve - here is a man after your own heart: "Tory grandee Michael Heseltine believes we are facing the most “dishonest election campaign of modern times”. The former Conservative front bencher told Sky News that both parties are deliberately avoiding the subject of Brexit. “And you can’t have a discussion about the country’s economy or its defence, or immigration or the environment and not discuss Brexit. We have cast ourselves off from our principal market, our most important partners.” That is the underlying crisis that faces this country, he said. “It’s terrifying to me that while the public opinion is moving and the younger generation is frustrated, the two major parties think they can go through six weeks of campaigning and not have anything to say about it.”"
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Post by mercian on May 22, 2024 22:17:08 GMT
pjw1961Heseltine is a deluded old man. Brexit is done and dusted for at least a decade. To try to make an issue of it in this election would be electoral suicide for whichever party tried it.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 22, 2024 22:22:33 GMT
One of the pundits on newsnight commented how Sunak never makes any decision without poring over data beforehand, but then observed it was rather a gamble to bet on the slight improvement in current economic figures. I think he missed the point, that Sunak would have been looking at expectations for the rest of the year, and was much more likely deciding based upon whether they were likely to show steady improvement ...or not. Seems most likely he concluded the answer was not, and so delaying wouldnt show a record to vote for but an already faltering blip.
Another problem which occurred to me was the muslim vote, where it has been suggested Starmers support for Israel has cost labour votes. It seems likely Israel will continue its invasion despite growing clamour around the world, and the US will strongly support Israel. They will also expect the UK PM to similarly support Israel, which if Sunak complied would transfer the annoyance of muslims to him. In this respect it could be the announcement today that Norway was to recognise palestine might have been the straw on the camel's back. Similarly, if the war in Ukraine now goes badly, there might be some questions asked how come our support for them was utterly inadequate?
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Post by James E on May 22, 2024 22:27:00 GMT
Going off putting some perfectly reasonable figures into Electoral Calculus (44/26), I say: Lab 405 Con 108 LD 50 SNP 19 PC 3 Gre 2 Bloody hell. With 18 Northern Ireland MPs, this would only add up to 605, so you're 45 short. I think you have mixed up the Labour seat total - when I put the 44/26 vote shares into Electoral Calculus, it shows Labour with 450 seats, not 405. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.htmlpjw1961 "Lab 406 Con 158 LD 35 SNP 28 PC 3 Green 1 (Brighton Pavilion) Speaker 1" My guess at the moment would be similar to this, but with perhaps 20-30 more Tory losses, mostly to Labour but some to LD. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 22, 2024 22:28:07 GMT
pjw1961 Heseltine is a deluded old man. Brexit is done and dusted for at least a decade. To try to make an issue of it in this election would be electoral suicide for whichever party tried it. What seems clear is that labour is not a popular party. Its just more popular than con, which have disgraced themselves, and the biggest issue of the last 14 years where this applies is Brexit. As a one off issue getting people to vote for them, its over. You believe its over, no longer a reason to vote con. But if you actually believe you were lied to and all the promised benefits of brexit were wholly fake, its a very strong reason to vote AGAINST con. Which is pecisely what we are seeing. Even if no party calls for rejoin, it may still be the wish to rejoin and retribution against con for Brexit which decides this election. To become actively popular a party needs to embrace rejoining, at least as an aspiration. |
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Post by jimjam on May 22, 2024 22:34:52 GMT
My Indy is Ashfield Independent and Greens holding on in Brighton.
NB- Claire Hannah to lose to SF only change in seats in NI imo.
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Post by peterbell on May 22, 2024 22:36:21 GMT
It is noticeable that virtually every commentator on TV has made negative comments re the optics of Sunak's announcement in the pouring rain. Many have contrasted it with the well set up statement from Starmer. Comments have included why did he not use and umbrella or better still make the anouncement inside Downing Street.
The word chaos has been used by several in the media and, contrary to one or two who have said that the optics will be forgoten over the 6 weeks, I suspect that the chaos of today will be related to the chaos of the past 14 years. This will be very relevant leading up to the election.
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Post by mercian on May 22, 2024 22:36:45 GMT
pjw1961 Heseltine is a deluded old man. Brexit is done and dusted for at least a decade. To try to make an issue of it in this election would be electoral suicide for whichever party tried it. What seems clear is that labour is not a popular party. Its just more popular than con, which have disgraced themselves, and the biggest issue of the last 14 years where this applies is Brexit. As a one off issue getting people to vote for them, its over. You believe its over, no longer a reason to vote con. But if you actually believe you were lied to and all the promised benefits of brexit were wholly fake, its a very strong reason to vote AGAINST con. Which is pecisely what we are seeing. Even if no party calls for rejoin, it may still be the wish to rejoin and retribution against con for Brexit which decides this election. To become actively popular a party needs to embrace rejoining, at least as an aspiration. I don't think Brexit has made a noticeable difference to most peoples' lives, despite all the lefty propaganda. I've certainly never heard anyone complain about it in real life. Apparently we had the highest economic growth in the G7 last quarter, but most voters won't even be aware of that. Also don't forget that Brexit is very low down on the list of important issues when there is a poll about it. Even if it was an important issue to the electorate I think the last figures I saw were around 35% who still think it was a good idea. Enough to win an election. To become actively popular a party needs to have a charismatic leader who doesn't frighten the horses too much and makes soothing reassurances about the two or three issues at the top of voters' priorities. End of. Of course when in power and all the soothing noises are shown to be vacuous popularity will wane. |
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Post by graham on May 22, 2024 22:42:00 GMT
Like many, I had assumed Sunak would go for the autumn for obvious reasons. But a couple of months ago a friend of mine outlined a scenario for an earlier date. So she said bad Local Elections and more letters going in for a leadership challenge, coupled to a summer season of boats and little tangible signs of economic recovery would mean Sunak went early.
It did all look a bit panicky and shambolic. The firsts polls with fieldwork done after today will be interesting! One reason for going early that I've not seen mentioned (though I may have missed it) is that the electorate gets quite irritated when governments hang on until the bitter end, as from memory Callaghan, Major and Brown did. Going early should limit that irritation and slightly mitigate the expected heavy defeat. That might have come into the decision on timing. Callaghan did not hang on to the bitter end in that the last date for an election was November 1979 - had he been able to survive that long. He was defeated on a Vote of Confidence on March 28th - and then called an election for May 3rd. However, he had made a fatal error by failing to call an election in September 1978 when hi s electoral prospects were much brighter - indeed Gallup recorded a 5.5% Labour lead later that month which would have given him a clear majority. A month later Gallup still had Labour 5% ahead. |
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Post by peterbell on May 22, 2024 22:42:42 GMT
Kevin McGuire (Mirror) on Sky commenting that the Sun comments re today's announcement are very much "sitting on the fence" Suspects that they may well end up supporting Lab - they have form on this and when they have supported Lab it has been a good Lab victory.
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Post by RAF on May 22, 2024 22:49:26 GMT
Can’t believe a spin doctor actually told him, go out and stand in the rain while “things can only get better” is being played on speakers so loud it almost drowns (😂) him out. Someone needs sacking😂😂 Well, the alternative was to go out earlier in the equally heavy rain but to the tune of the Imperial March from Star Wars. |
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Post by mercian on May 22, 2024 22:50:29 GMT
graham Ok, my memory may have been slightly off, but the fact is that for Callaghan to have lost a vote of no confidence clearly meant that MPs at least felt that he had clung on too long. The substantive point remains. Governments that are seen to be hanging on too long are punished by the electorate. However several people have made the point that Sunak may have felt forced to call for a GE to avoid a leadership election. I tend to think that this is the most likely main reason. It would explain the somewhat rushed announcement (Cameron coming back from Albania for instance). I'd love to know what Graham Brady was up to this morning. Side note: Is Brady really 'One of Us'? He has the air of a grammar school oik to me.  EDIT: I've just looked him up and he did indeed go to Grammar School, and Durham University, not Oxbridge. Good grief!
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Post by EmCat on May 22, 2024 23:00:46 GMT
Prediction time.
The sun will rise, Scotland and England will both surprise at the Euro football (either: losing to teams they should have easily beaten; or an off-field incident that grabs the headlines. But less likely to be over-performing against expectations)
As for the election, then I'll go for:
Con 85
Lab 488
LD 38
Ref 0
Grn 2
SNP 16
PC 3
NI 18
Lab majority 326
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Post by mercian on May 22, 2024 23:21:29 GMT
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Post by joeboy on May 22, 2024 23:26:33 GMT
My Indy is Ashfield Independent and Greens holding on in Brighton. NB- Claire Hannah to lose to SF only change in seats in NI imo. Northern Ireland is really not much more than a sideshow in Westminster elections but there's always some interesting sub plots to grab the attention here in Ireland if not so much in the UK as a whole. Firstly, I can't see SF taking South Belfast off Claire H, they didn't even stand there in 2019! There was an agreement last time out that if the SDLP didn't stand in North Belfast, SF would give Claire a clear run in the south of the city. While to some this is all a bit distasteful essentially turning the elections in these constituencies into sectarian headcounts, the alternative is two more DUP MPs so the argument is the end justifies the means. However, there could be a significant SF challenge to the SDLP in Foyle where SF were routed in 2019, the local Shinners have sorted out some serious internal issues, to a large degree, and the SDLP MP Colum Eastwood is not universally popular. The real fight is likely to be between DUP and the Alliance in East Belfast where the DUP are defending a majority of less than 2000. If the Alliance can gain the seat it will be the first time Belfast failed to elect a Unionist MP. |
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Post by eor on May 22, 2024 23:28:15 GMT
And incidentally, who now believes it was utterly not a coincidence that the election was called on the same day Craig Mackinley made his return to the commons, plucky conservative fighter showing off what the conservative managed NHS can do? Seeing as the GE announcement will largely drown out what would otherwise have been pretty newsworthy coverage of his return to Parliament, then I'll go with that theory being about as likely as Sunak doing it today to upset the Albanians. |
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Post by eor on May 22, 2024 23:41:39 GMT
Greens have said they are standing in every seat and not doing pacts. Whether they miss a few seats through some hiccup remains to be seen. I believe reform are supposed to be contesting every seat as well but I have a few doubts that they will get their act together for this- probably still relying on mercian standing :-) . (Leeroy Jenkins is (was) a person in a World of Warcraft online game who did something really stupid) One other victim of Leeroy Sunak (see what I did there) is Reform UK. As Duncan Robinson noted in this fabulous Bagehot column, Reform UK aren’t really a political party in the normal scheme of things. They are a brand, some money, a couple of identifiablish leaders (Tice and Ben Habib), a really identifiable founder but not (yet) leader (Farage), and a bizarre grab-bag of parliamentary candidates, the selection process for whom has a sort of Dirty Dozen quality (or Dodgeball for younger readers).
I suspect, given the problems Reform UK were already having in removing candidates who had made racist comments, advocated setting wolves on people in cities, or were simply dead, that Tice and company will not be able to stand MPs in every constituency with such a short time until election.
The question is, faced with no Reform candidate, how will people who said they support them vote. The Greens stood in 476 constituencies in 2017 when there was no pact, so maybe 4-500. 632 doesn't sound believable. - I agree with mercian that for the most part they just won't vote in that situation. But also, a snap GE is very different to a by-election, and so I think candidate quality will matter very little. People who are going to vote Reform in a given seat seem likely to do it pretty much on the basis of whether there is an option to do it or not - in all but a tiny handful of seats there is no prospect of whoever the candidate is getting elected, as we've noted recently they're not relying on any kind of councillor base or local recognition, it's just a brand, a protest label. Whether the guy standing for them in here in Suburbia West was the one who wanted the wolves or that was the one standing for them in Suburbia East, I don't think it'll make much difference. Whether they have the money and above all the competence to get 632 valid registrations completed in time seems likely to have a rather bigger impact on their eventual result. |
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Post by eor on May 22, 2024 23:51:07 GMT
My Indy is Ashfield Independent and Greens holding on in Brighton. NB- Claire Hannah to lose to SF only change in seats in NI imo. Northern Ireland is really not much more than a sideshow in Westminster elections but there's always some interesting sub plots to grab the attention here in Ireland if not so much in the UK as a whole. Firstly, I can't see SF taking South Belfast off Claire H, they didn't even stand there in 2019! There was an agreement last time out that if the SDLP didn't stand in North Belfast, SF would give Claire a clear run in the south of the city. While to some this is all a bit distasteful essentially turning the elections in these constituencies into sectarian headcounts, the alternative is two more DUP MPs so the argument is the end justifies the means. However, there could be a significant SF challenge to the SDLP in Foyle where SF were routed in 2019, the local Shinners have sorted out some serious internal issues, to a large degree, and the SDLP MP Colum Eastwood is not universally popular. The real fight is likely to be between DUP and the Alliance in East Belfast where the DUP are defending a majority of less than 2000. If the Alliance can gain the seat it will be the first time Belfast failed to elect a Unionist MP.Apologies for the quibble cos it's great to get local detail like that. But just on that last point, wasn't Gerry Adams's old seat in West Belfast? And Peter Robinson's in East Belfast when he lost to the Alliance after the corruption thing? |
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Post by mercian on May 22, 2024 23:56:45 GMT
This Ben Ansell post on substack is amusing. (Leeroy Jenkins is (was) a person in a World of Warcraft online game who did something really stupid) One other victim of Leeroy Sunak (see what I did there) is Reform UK. As Duncan Robinson noted in this fabulous Bagehot column, Reform UK aren’t really a political party in the normal scheme of things. They are a brand, some money, a couple of identifiablish leaders (Tice and Ben Habib), a really identifiable founder but not (yet) leader (Farage), and a bizarre grab-bag of parliamentary candidates, the selection process for whom has a sort of Dirty Dozen quality (or Dodgeball for younger readers).
I suspect, given the problems Reform UK were already having in removing candidates who had made racist comments, advocated setting wolves on people in cities, or were simply dead, that Tice and company will not be able to stand MPs in every constituency with such a short time until election.
The question is, faced with no Reform candidate, how will people who said they support them vote. The Greens stood in 476 constituencies in 2017 when there was no pact, so maybe 4-500. 632 doesn't sound believable. - I agree with steve that for the most part they just won't vote in that situation. Not that it matters much but I think that was me. |
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Post by eor on May 23, 2024 0:10:26 GMT
leftieliberal - I agree with steve that for the most part they just won't vote in that situation. Not that it matters much but I think that was me. - I often find you two interchangeable, you have such similar views on the world. I need more sleep |
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Post by mercian on May 23, 2024 0:20:51 GMT
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Post by joeboy on May 23, 2024 0:37:57 GMT
Northern Ireland is really not much more than a sideshow in Westminster elections but there's always some interesting sub plots to grab the attention here in Ireland if not so much in the UK as a whole. Firstly, I can't see SF taking South Belfast off Claire H, they didn't even stand there in 2019! There was an agreement last time out that if the SDLP didn't stand in North Belfast, SF would give Claire a clear run in the south of the city. While to some this is all a bit distasteful essentially turning the elections in these constituencies into sectarian headcounts, the alternative is two more DUP MPs so the argument is the end justifies the means. However, there could be a significant SF challenge to the SDLP in Foyle where SF were routed in 2019, the local Shinners have sorted out some serious internal issues, to a large degree, and the SDLP MP Colum Eastwood is not universally popular. The real fight is likely to be between DUP and the Alliance in East Belfast where the DUP are defending a majority of less than 2000. If the Alliance can gain the seat it will be the first time Belfast failed to elect a Unionist MP.Apologies for the quibble cos it's great to get local detail like that. But just on that last point, wasn't Gerry Adams's old seat in West Belfast? And Peter Robinson's in East Belfast when he lost to the Alliance after the corruption thing? Naomi Long did win East Belfast for the Alliance in 2010, at the same time the SDLP and SF respectively held the South and West seats. But Belfast North remained a Unionist seat until John Finucane took it for SF in 2019. Belfast North is still likely to be close but the changing demographics of Belfast and slow decline of the Unionist electorate in the city would indicate a SF hold. In Belfast South some areas of North Down have been added with boundary changes, but given Claire Hanna's majority of over 15000 it should be a comfortable hold for the SDLP. |
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