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Post by leftieliberal on May 22, 2024 20:12:34 GMT
In reply to me wondering earlier how many constituencies Labour have yet to select their candidate in, Labour List has the answer. As of this morning it's about 100. We can safely assume they are the ones where Labour has the lowest chance of winning. |
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 20:15:27 GMT
crossbat11“ Maybe Heaney's evocation that history and hope will one day rhyme will never come true,” That is a lovely use of words Battso but I’ve always thought he should have aimed for something easier - maybe history and mystery and hope and dope.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 22, 2024 20:16:33 GMT
In reply to me wondering earlier how many constituencies Labour have yet to select their candidate in, Labour List has the answer. As of this morning it's about 100. We can safely assume they are the ones where Labour has the lowest chance of winning.
Imagine the anger of mercian and his ilk, that around 100 Labour candidates are Muslim women. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 22, 2024 20:20:15 GMT
crossbat11
"To tart to shape that world."
Perhaps an unfortunate typo in that paean to hope. Stormy Daniels couldn't have put it better. A stray Truss reference now remedied. 😊 |
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 20:26:59 GMT
David Wilkie dead at 70. Rather sad.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 22, 2024 20:32:57 GMT
In reply to me wondering earlier how many constituencies Labour have yet to select their candidate in, Labour List has the answer. As of this morning it's about 100. We can safely assume they are the ones where Labour has the lowest chance of winning.
Imagine the anger of mercian and his ilk, that around 100 Labour candidates are Muslim women.That's one of your best oldnat. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 22, 2024 20:35:10 GMT
In reply to me wondering earlier how many constituencies Labour have yet to select their candidate in, Labour List has the answer. As of this morning it's about 100. We can safely assume they are the ones where Labour has the lowest chance of winning. Bar a few (for example the Labour MP for Halifax announced her intention not to stand again today, the selection of who will stand against Jeremy Corbyn is not complete I believe, and who knows what will happen regarding Diane Abbott) it is mainly the seats at the bottom of the priority list that don't have PPCs but it is still annoying as it was avoidable. |
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Post by Martin on May 22, 2024 20:43:21 GMT
Can’t believe a spin doctor actually told him, go out and stand in the rain while “things can only get better” is being played on speakers so loud it almost drowns (😂) him out. Someone needs sacking😂😂
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 22, 2024 20:45:36 GMT
Christopher Hope, GB News
"Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday.
One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady.
The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted.
“In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”
Words fail me, do they really think this could happen! Deranged thinking
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 20:53:58 GMT
Can’t believe a spin doctor actually told him, go out and stand in the rain while “things can only get better” is being played on speakers so loud it almost drowns (😂) him out. Someone needs sacking😂😂 Promoting I think. |
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 20:55:30 GMT
Christopher Hope, GB News "Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.” Words fail me, do they really think this could happen! Deranged thinking I do hope that they try though. |
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Post by mercian on May 22, 2024 20:56:14 GMT
Like many, I had assumed Sunak would go for the autumn for obvious reasons. But a couple of months ago a friend of mine outlined a scenario for an earlier date. So she said bad Local Elections and more letters going in for a leadership challenge, coupled to a summer season of boats and little tangible signs of economic recovery would mean Sunak went early.
It did all look a bit panicky and shambolic. The firsts polls with fieldwork done after today will be interesting! One reason for going early that I've not seen mentioned (though I may have missed it) is that the electorate gets quite irritated when governments hang on until the bitter end, as from memory Callaghan, Major and Brown did. Going early should limit that irritation and slightly mitigate the expected heavy defeat. That might have come into the decision on timing. |
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Post by alec on May 22, 2024 21:03:07 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter - Dr A & myself came to the conclusion that this week's poorer than expected inflation figures and very poor borrowing numbers indicate limited room for further giveaways, and that possible trouble in the Tory party meant a quick dash to the polls now was the least worst option for Sunak.
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Post by jib on May 22, 2024 21:03:25 GMT
Christopher Hope, GB News "Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.” Words fail me, do they really think this could happen! Deranged thinking I think it was a case of go now or get removed over the summer. Crazy Tories. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 22, 2024 21:04:23 GMT
In reply to me wondering earlier how many constituencies Labour have yet to select their candidate in, Labour List has the answer. As of this morning it's about 100. We can safely assume they are the ones where Labour has the lowest chance of winning. Bar a few (for example the Labour MP for Halifax announced her intention not to stand again today, the selection of who will stand against Jeremy Corbyn is not complete I believe, and who knows what will happen regarding Diane Abbott) it is mainly the seats at the bottom of the priority list that don't have PPCs but it is still annoying as it was avoidable. AFAIK all our candidates have been selected, because we had assumed that the general election could be on the same day as the locals. What I don't know is the total number of candidates we plan to stand or whether we will have a pact with the Greens and Plaid Cymru as in 2019. I know that where local parties had not selected candidates by last December, they were allocated candidates by the Regional Party (this happened in one of my local party's seats). |
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Post by mercian on May 22, 2024 21:09:28 GMT
but as I go into what might be one of the last few general elections of my lifetime, I'm just hoping to make it to this one!  |
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Post by jimjam on May 22, 2024 21:11:30 GMT
Going Second but will transfer to prediction thread when opened.
Lab 389
Con 180
LD 29
SNP 28
PC 3
GRN 1
Ind 1
DUP 8
SF 8
All 1
SDLP 1
S’ker 1
Lab Majority 129
Edited thanks to PJW
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Post by mercian on May 22, 2024 21:16:53 GMT
Christopher Hope, GB News "Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.” Words fail me, do they really think this could happen! Deranged thinking The King would be a bit miffed I would have thought, and might resist any attempt to change whatever he's already agreed to. The powers of the monarchy are a bit of a mystery to me but perhaps one of our resident legal eagles would know whether he could just refuse to grant an un-dissolution? (Or perhaps the opposite of dissolution is solution??) |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 22, 2024 21:25:04 GMT
Christopher Hope, GB News "Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The MP: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.” Words fail me, do they really think this could happen! Deranged thinking The King would be a bit miffed I would have thought, and might resist any attempt to change whatever he's already agreed to. The powers of the monarchy are a bit of a mystery to me but perhaps one of our resident legal eagles would know whether he could just refuse to grant an un-dissolution? (Or perhaps the opposite of dissolution is solution??) But before that they would need to defeat Sunak in a no confidence vote by getting over half of tory MPs to vote against Sunak. Then elect/pick a leader who would agree to try and stop the election It won't happen, but if it did it could be the end of the tories for a generation. Even trying to do it would be disastrous for them |
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Post by mercian on May 22, 2024 21:28:51 GMT
The King would be a bit miffed I would have thought, and might resist any attempt to change whatever he's already agreed to. The powers of the monarchy are a bit of a mystery to me but perhaps one of our resident legal eagles would know whether he could just refuse to grant an un-dissolution? (Or perhaps the opposite of dissolution is solution??) But before that they would need to defeat Sunak in a no confidence vote by getting over half of tory MPs to vote against Sunak. Then elect/pick a leader who would agree to try and stop the election It won't happen, but if it did it could be the end of the tories for a generation. Even trying to do it would be disastrous for them Whatever happens this election could well mean either 13 years out of power or total wipeout to be replaced by presumably the LibDems as the second main party. I think the classic 13 years is much more likely but you never know. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 22, 2024 21:29:56 GMT
I'm surprised Parliament is being prerogued in just 2 days' time. There are a number of significant Bills with some steps still to go before becoming law. Most will be lost in the wash-up. prevents opportunities for more tory MPs to defect? |
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Post by shevii on May 22, 2024 21:32:20 GMT
AFAIK all our candidates have been selected, because we had assumed that the general election could be on the same day as the locals. What I don't know is the total number of candidates we plan to stand or whether we will have a pact with the Greens and Plaid Cymru as in 2019. Greens have said they are standing in every seat and not doing pacts. Whether they miss a few seats through some hiccup remains to be seen. I believe reform are supposed to be contesting every seat as well but I have a few doubts that they will get their act together for this- probably still relying on mercian standing :-) |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 22, 2024 21:35:10 GMT
Going Second but will transfer to prediction thread when opened. Lab 389 Con 180 LD 29 SNP 28 PC 3 GRN 1 Ind 1 DUP 8 SF 8 All 1 SDLP 1 S’ker 1 Lab Majority 106 Who is the Ind? P.s. That isn't a Labour majority of 106. Discounting the Speaker, even if SF turned up it is 129. Allowing for SDLP aligning with Labour and SF abstaining it is 137. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 22, 2024 21:35:53 GMT
Unity amongst the Tory regime less than overwhelming.
"Conservative MPs are feeling “baffled” and “furious” about the election, and some are submitting letters of no confidence in Sunak, The New Statesman reports.
“To say Westminster did not see this coming was an understatement,” writes editor Rachel Cunliffe. “Up until this morning, No 10 had sent very strong signals that an election would not be called until the autumn.”
There is “widespread fury” in the party from MPs, candidates, grassroots activists, advisers and parliamentary aides, who will lose their jobs if the people they work for lose their seats.
One texted Cunliffe to tell her the decision was cruel”. Another described it as “heartbreaking”.
There is still no understanding of why Sunak chose to make the announcement, she writes, but MPs have told her “it’s a terrible idea”, “I don’t get it”, “really odd”, “he’s given up” and “we deserve to lose”.
Another called the day’s proceedings “a shitshow”.
“It’s hard to imagine a less united party heading into a six-week election campaign,” she concludes. "
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steve
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Post by steve on May 22, 2024 21:42:11 GMT
@pjw
Let's go for an outlier
Labour. 483
Tory 57
Lib Dems. 68
Greens. 2
SNP 18
Refuk 0
PC. 4
N I 18
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 21:42:12 GMT
Going Second but will transfer to prediction thread when opened. Lab 389 Con 180 LD 29 SNP 28 PC 3 GRN 1 Ind 1 DUP 8 SF 8 All 1 SDLP 1 S’ker 1 Lab Majority 106 Who is the Ind? Might be the Ashfield Independent? Although I reckon Labour will sneak that one with Ashfield Inds second, and Tories/Reform battling for third place. A juicy one to watch!
Who does jimjam think the Green will be? Brighton Pav or Bristol Central? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 22, 2024 21:44:01 GMT
There is still no understanding of why Sunak chose to make the announcement, she writes, but MPs have told her “it’s a terrible idea”, “I don’t get it”, “really odd”, “he’s given up” and “we deserve to lose”. Another called the day’s proceedings “a shitshow”. “It’s hard to imagine a less united party heading into a six-week election campaign,” she concludes. " I think as many Conservative MPs and activists should air this as often as possible on all media and social media outlets - just in the spirit of openness of course  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 22, 2024 21:45:31 GMT
@pjw Let's go for an outlier Labour. 483 Tory 57 Lib Dems. 68 Greens. 2 SNP 18 Refuk 0 PC. 4 N I 18 What have you been smoking steve?! |
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 21:46:10 GMT
There is still no understanding of why Sunak chose to make the announcement, she writes, but MPs have told her “it’s a terrible idea”, “I don’t get it”, “really odd”, “he’s given up” and “we deserve to lose”. Another called the day’s proceedings “a shitshow”. “It’s hard to imagine a less united party heading into a six-week election campaign,” she concludes. "
Diddums, poor things. Nice to see they're already blaming their loss on Sunak's announcement, and not their record of 14 years. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 22, 2024 21:46:13 GMT
Might be the Ashfield Independent? Although I reckon Labour will sneak that one with Ashfield Inds second, and Tories/Reform battling for third place. A juicy one to watch!
Who does jimjam think the Green will be? Brighton Pav or Bristol Central? Or Corbyn? |
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