Party seat predictions for GE 4/7/24

[mercian]

A number of people have started to do predictions for the GE on the main thread. It might be more convenient to put them here.

EDIT: My prediction as of 23/5/24


Lab    400
Con    172
LD 41
SNP 12
PC 4
G 2
NI 18
Spk 1

[EmCat]

Copied over from the main thread



Con    85
Lab   488
LD     38
Ref     0
Grn     2
SNP    16
PC      3
NI     18

Lab majority 326

[jimjam]

Lab 389
Con 180
LD 29
SNP 28
PC 3
GRN 1
Ind 1
DUP 8
SF 8
All 1
SDLP 1
S’ker 1

Lab Majority 129

[johntel]

Lab 406
Con 158
LD 44
SNP 24
PC 3
Green 0 (Brighton loss to Labour)
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18

[neilj]

Lab 403
Con 154
LD 45
SNP 25
PC 3
Green 1
Speaker 1
N.I. 18 (don't know enough to break it down further)

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oh goodie, another chance for me to get it wildly wrong.

Lab     405
Con     166
LD       38
SNP     18
PC         4
GRN      2
DUP       8
SF         8
All         1
SDLP     1
S’ker     1

[bedknobsandboomstick]

Lab 450
Con 108
LD 50
SNP 19
PC 3
Gre 2

[oldnat]

I'll follow the example of some other posters on NI, by not bothering to guess at the outcome in "far away countries, of which we know little". 

SNP 25
Lab 25
LD 4
Con 3
NI 18
Wal 32
Eng 543

[moby]

Labour   392

Con        182

Lib Dem  31

Green      1

SNP        21

Plaid       4

Reform   0

Speaker

N Ireland  18  no idea  of the breakdown.

[barbara]

I've never done this before and maths is not my strong point so please be gentle!

Labour 408
Conservative 147
Lib Dems 36
SNP26
NI 18
PC 3
Green 2
Others 9
Speaker 1


(Edited to adjust NI numbers) 

[lefthanging]

Lab 506
LD 57
Con 49
SNP 14
Plaid 3
Green 2
Reform 0

Sin Fein 8
DUP 6
SDLP 3
Alliance 1

Speaker 1

[pjw1961]

Ok, here's my guess. I was originally predicting a Labour majority of between 10 and 40, at a time when many had doubt about Labour managing more than largest party. However that was pre-Truss and JamesE has persuaded me with the non-uniform swings evident in the polling. Therefore:

Lab 406
Con 158
LD 35
SNP 28
PC 3
Green 1 (Brighton Pavilion)
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18 (I don't follow the trends in Irish politics closely enough to split that)

[pjw1961]

May 23, 2024 10:35:22 GMT oldnat said:

I'll follow the example of some other posters on NI, by not bothering to guess at the outcome in "far away countries, of which we know little". 

SNP 25
Lab 25
LD 4
Con 3
NI 18
Wal 32
Eng 543

So Eng form the government (again ).

[Deleted]

This from my post yesterday

% LAB 40 / CON 29 / LIB 13 / REF 7 / GRN 4

Seats LAB 403 / CON 159 / LIB 47 / REF 0 / GRN 0 (SNP 19 / PLC 4 / NI 18)

[Deleted]

Con 0
LD. 50
Lab 600

[expatr]

Lab 415
Con 145
LD 43
SNP 22
PC 4
Green 2
NI 18 (SF 8, DUP 6, All2, SDLP 2)

Based on moderate swingback at Lab 40, Con 28, Lib 10, Ref 6, green 6, SNP and Labour both on 35 in Scotland, moderate anti- Tory tactical voting (half the level suggested in polling)

So basically made it as pro-Tory as I reasonably could barring the unexpected on the campaign trail.  Based on the start I may have been too generous/pessimistic (delete according to taste)

[t7g4]

Labour - 310
Conservatives- 270
Liberal Democrat’s - 30
SNP - 17
PC - 4
Greens - 1
NI - 18

Result: HP (Lab/Lib Dem coalition)

[James E]

Predicting seat totals under First Past The Post is difficult in any UK election, but especially so in current circumstances. Vote shares are somewhat easier, and on these I think that the likely outcome is at the lower end of the current polling range; so my best guess is that Labour are going to win by about 15 points. On the other hand, it seems clear to me that with the Conservatives' proportional losses, and corresponding Lab & LD gains in their heartlands, we are likely to see a record-breaking number of seats changing hands. I have mentioned before how the UNS-based target for a majority for Labour (or for the Conservatives) shifts significantly at most elections. I expect a record-breaking shift, such that the apparent target for a Labour majority will fall from 12% per the 2019 results to around 3%. As I mentioned yesterday on the main thread, I would expect Labour to gain around 17 seats for each 1% of swing from the Tories they achieve in the popular vote - which is a lot more than the 10-11 shown by UNS, and also larger than the 14 shown by YouGov's most recent MRPs.

The main reason for this is the proportional swing, but tactical voting against the Tories is an additional factor. The Conservatives win few constituencies on much less than 40%, and their current losses suggest that they will fall below that 40% threshold in many formerly safe seats. The LDs performance in seats varies in relation to the gap between them and the Tories, and they are likely to prosper with the Conservatives' share being at a record low.

In vote shares, I am guessing around Lab 43%, Con 28%, LD 11%, Ref 7% (?), Green 6%. My attempt to put this into seats is:

Lab 421
Con 131
LD 51
SNP 22
PC 4
Grn 2
NI 18 ( SF 8, DUP 6, Alliance 2, SDLP 1, Alliance 2, UUP 1)
Speaker 1

The larger parties' figures must be taken as very approximate. A single point swing would increase or reduce the size of the majority by about 35 seats. Given the range of current polling, a more cautious approach might be to say that Labour are likely to get between 375 and 450 seats. My figures are around the middle of that range.

I have taken a similar approach to Scotland. The difference in seats between an SNP lead of around 7 points and a similar lead for Labour is around 35 of Scotland's 57 seats. I now think that the most likely outcome is a narrow lead for Labour in both votes and seats, but where SNP and Lab are close, a single point swing can shift 4 or 5 seats between the two. Wales is not too hard to predict, as all polling put the Tories close to wipe-out, even though Labour's vote share there is not hugely better than in 2019 - PC will do well, as will the Greens in their English targets. In Northern Ireland, I anticipate just a few seats changing hands, that being East Belfast from DUP to Alliance; SF may also take Foyle from SDLP, and UUP could gain Antrim South from the DUP. And turnout is likely to be significantly lower than in 2019 - probably around 60%.

[jayblanc]

Using a crystal-ball model of splitting the difference between a current MMA, short term Trend and long term Trend, then stuffing it into electoral seat calc...

Vote share - CON 21.75% LAB 47.21% LIB 8.81% SNP 2.71% GRN 5.81% REF 10.92%
Seats Returned - CON 43 LAB 530 LIB 42 SNP 36 GRN 2 REF 0

Truly an election on a knife edge, but not in the normal sense...

This is of course assuming that momentum continues. So I'll hedge my bets and say that the range will be between

Seats Returned - CON 100 LAB 485 LIB 30 SNP 36 GRN 2 REF 0
Seats Returned - CON 40 LAB 540 LIB 45 SNP 26 GRN 2 REF 0

[leftieliberal]

My prediction, based on history as the last July election was in 1945.
Labour 397
Conservatives 170
Lib Dems 38
SNP 22
Plaid Cymru 3
Greens 1
Northern Ireland 18

Labour majority 145 (the same as in 1945 when there were 10 fewer MPs).

[shevii]

Lab 442
Con 109
LD 42
SNP 26
PC 4
GRN 3
Ind 4
DUP 6
UUP 1
SF 8
All 2
SDLP 2
Speaker 1

[pete]

When do votes need to be in by?
Is there a prize for the winner?

[leftieliberal]

Jun 6, 2024 11:50:50 GMT pete said:

When do votes need to be in by?
Is there a prize for the winner?

Maybe a guided walk along the Worcester and Birmingham canal with Mercian and Batty.

[wb61]

I waited until major manifesto's before predicting:
CON: 93; LAB: 448; LIB: 55; Reform: 5; Green: 3; SNP: 15; Plaid Cymru: 5; SF: 8; DUP: 6; UU: 1; Alliance: 3; Other: 2

[jayblanc]

May 24, 2024 16:05:31 GMT jayblanc said:

Using a crystal-ball model of splitting the difference between a current MMA, short term Trend and long term Trend, then stuffing it into electoral seat calc...

Vote share - CON 21.75% LAB 47.21% LIB 8.81% SNP 2.71% GRN 5.81% REF 10.92%
Seats Returned - CON 43 LAB 530 LIB 42 SNP 36 GRN 2 REF 0

Truly an election on a knife edge, but not in the normal sense...

This is of course assuming that momentum continues. So I'll hedge my bets and say that the range will be between

Seats Returned - CON 100 LAB 485 LIB 30 SNP 36 GRN 2 REF 0
Seats Returned - CON 40 LAB 540 LIB 45 SNP 26 GRN 2 REF 0

Updated the crysta-ball model with recent polling...

CON 20.1% LAB 40.8% LIB 11.1% SNP 2.8% GRN 5.8% REF 16.4%
Seats Returned - CON 54 LAB 473 LIB 61 SNP 33 GRN 2 REF 3

So if things continue as they are, Ed Davey will be Leader of the Loyal Opposition.

[patrickbrian]

Okay, my predictions are always crap but it's fun to look back on them later. Like Crofty I don't believe in spurious accuracy, or adding up the numbers or that stuff. Not from me! But I think the Lib Denms will do a lot better than forecast, and I don't really believe any more that natural Tory voters will tick the 'right' box in the ballot booth..... So...

Lab 400 +

Libdem 70

Con 100

Green 4

refuk 2

Jeremy corbyn 1

George Galloway 0

[shevii]

Jun 14, 2024 16:21:03 GMT wb61 said:

I waited until major manifesto's before predicting:
CON: 93; LAB: 448; LIB: 55; Reform: 5; Green: 3; SNP: 15; Plaid Cymru: 5; SF: 8; DUP: 6; UU: 1; Alliance: 3; Other: 2

That might well be what I'd put if I was doing it now!

[bardin1]

Lab 381
Con 175
LD 46
SNP 27
Reform 6
PC 4
G 2
NI 18
Spk 1

[jayblanc]

My final prognostication...

Labour are going to win, it's not going to be remotely close, and they will have a massive majority that will make getting legislation through the commons trivial.

What happens to the other parties is much harder to predict, because the ranges of possible figures have dramatically differing outcomes for the opposition parties.

There are three roughly equal likely outcomes, that it is truly impossible to distinguish which is more likely amongst them.

1) The Conservatives substantially out-perform the split of the right wing vote, and return over a hundred seats to the Commons forming the loyal opposition.
2) The Conservatives barely pace with Reform in vote share, return bellow a hundred seats to the Commons, but still have the second largest number of seat and are able for form the loyal opposition.
3) The Conservatives barely pace with Reform in vote share, but return less seats to the Commons than the Liberal Democrats, and are unable to form the loyal opposition.

The first outcome leads to the Conservative party remaining a force in politics. The second is an existential crisis as the party is reduced to a rump that might not survive the Parliamentary term due to defections, resignations and by-elections. The third is the death knell for the Conservative Party, and they are likely to become defunct within years.

It will come as no surprise that I'm hoping for outcome number three. But not merely because it dooms the Conservative party, but because the Lib Dems become the loyal opposition. And are likely to use their opposition days in parliament to propose things that will have enough support from Labour Back benchers to get through, it is a potential path towards meaningful reforms that have been played down by the Labour front benches.

[pete]

This is done through Electoral Calculus

Con 152 (28%)
Lab 394 (36%)
Lib 61 (11%)
Ref 2 (12%)
Gre 3 (4% )
SNP 15 (3% )
Pl 3 (0.7)
NI 18 ()
O 2 ()

Labour majority 138